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Illini Basketball 2026-2027
Bro, I mean I don’t like getting my hopes up because I value keeping your head down to the grind and the motto of “jobs not finished until you’re at the podium,” but I fail to see us being “clearly a step behind” them. Especially USC.
Just go ask Rutgers how they enjoyed having two lottery pick freshman on the same team. Where did they end up? Freshman can be a huge wild card on whether or not they’ll deliver even if they work with the right coaching staff. There are very few programs in the country that can take multiple highly sought after Freshman on the same team and convert them into a cohesive team title contending team; and USC has not proven itself to be one of them. They have a talented roster on paper in comparison to other incoming freshman classes, but also because they don’t have the upperclassmen depth of other schools.
There’s a reason your title contending teams are predominantly mid to upperclassmen with experience and chemistry. Plus a coaching staff narrowing in on the right formula of play schemes.
This is a obviously a re-hash of the discussion a couple weeks ago, but Torvik ranks USC #6 in "Talent", while we're #9. They drop a ton in the actual prediction because of program history and other factors.
On his FAQ page, he says his talent rating "is based on composite recruiting ranks weighted for minutes played", but it isn't clear if that's just freshman, freshman & transfers, or all players, and if it's the latter it isn't clear how it's calculated for returning players.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Yeah, I don’t really understand Torvik’s talent ranking. How is Cal ranked 86 in his projections but 7 on talent? 247 puts this year’s Cal transfer class at 60 and it’s recruiting class at 65. 51 and 85 last year. So I’m not sure how that adds up to the 7th most talented team in college basketball.
That said, Vegas’s player of the year odds have 3 Illinois players ahead of the top ranked USC player.
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None of USC's freshman will be starting though. Illinois and Michigan are both projected to have more freshman in their starting 5 than USC.
(Prefix this by saying I do not think USC is better than us; on DraftKings player rankings Illinois has three players rated above USC's top player)
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Illinois is deeper than Michigan.
We aren't as deep as USC or Michigan State.
We aren't as deep as USC or Michigan State.
Mirk's ability to finish around the basket with his Left hand was great last year. Really adds a layer of complexity to those trying to defend him.
He does need to improve his rim finishing percentages.
I agree it seemed like he missed so many, but 67.2% is actually pretty solid. Probably a bit of negativity bias or availability heuristic here.
Mirk is shredded.
OrangeBlue98
Iowa is not in a great spot right now (LvilleILL1)
- Des Moines, IA
I think I figured it out. The "Talent" rating for Cal exactly agrees with the weighted average of the RecruiT-Rank for their players (after filling in missing values for two of their freshman using reasonable estimates). I then compared the RecruiT-Rank of their players with the 247 Composite Rating of those players (using the original rating out of high school for upperclassmen), and those are almost a perfect line. I went back and tweaked my estimated RecruiT-Rank for the two freshman using that line, and the weighted average for the team was still almost exactly the same as their Talent rating.
If that's true, then Talent is a severely out-of-date measurement for upperclassmen and can be ignored. So USC's players were more heralded out of high school than ours, but who cares now?
Basket Under Review is doing a preseason top 100 player list. They’ve released their honorable mentions and 100-76 so far.
HM:
Jacob Coffie (USC)
Eian Elmer (WIS)
Sam Orme (NEB)
Eric Dailey (UCLA)
Jaylen Petty (UCLA)
Tomislav Bujan (MAR)
93. Pharrel Payne (MAR)
92. Wesley Yates (WAS)
88. Braden Frager (NEB)
86. Nikola Kusturica (UCLA)
85. Stefan Vaaks (ILL)
76. JP Estrella
Don’t agree with a lot of this list so far…
Vaaks has the 11th best odds to win the Wooden in Vegas… 85th??
HM:
Jacob Coffie (USC)
Eian Elmer (WIS)
Sam Orme (NEB)
Eric Dailey (UCLA)
Jaylen Petty (UCLA)
Tomislav Bujan (MAR)
93. Pharrel Payne (MAR)
92. Wesley Yates (WAS)
88. Braden Frager (NEB)
86. Nikola Kusturica (UCLA)
85. Stefan Vaaks (ILL)
76. JP Estrella
Don’t agree with a lot of this list so far…
Vaaks has the 11th best odds to win the Wooden in Vegas… 85th??
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Thanks for digging into that.
The best measure of top end talent on each team is likely the Vegas player of the year betting odds, which we come out way ahead of USC in.
But I’ll concede that those odds don’t account for which team has the better bench. Does that favor USC? Maybe.
If you remove the 5 top projected contributors from USC according to Torvik and do the same for Illinois, USC comes out ranked 73 while Illinois falls to 80.
So USC might be slightly deeper. But if I could choose between having the better 1st, 2nd, and 3rd man and having the better 9th and 10th man, I’ll take the top end talent.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
If Brad and Muss swapped teams tomorrow, I'd bet on Brad to finish higher in the B1G.
If the portal NIL era is teaching us anything, it's that grab bags of high expected value individuals in a context that doesn't organize and maximize them well is often a path to nowhere.
I don't see any reason to trust the USC situation, whereas Illinois with Brad and this kind of continuity is about as high floor as it gets.
Thanks! I got it done today. Go Illlini!
I'd say typical is 7 at 10+. Guards can often play heavy minutes, but bigs usually have a back-up or need their fouls managed.
Specifically for Illlinois, last few years, we've had 6th - 8th over 10 min:
Ben - Jake - Big Z
Tre White - Morez - DGL
Luke - Justin - Dain
Part of what makes Brad's calculus work is that he bets on character over characters. I don't know much about the character of the guys at USC presently, but Muss should have seen the Chad Baker-Mazara drama coming from miles away...
Despite some rosters that looked decent on paper, they have yet to finfish better than 9th in the B1G.
85 is too low. 11 is too high.
Somebody needs to sell me on Michigan State because I don't see it. They have 1 really good player.
New ESPN bracketology. espn bracket
Illinois 1 seed in what I think would be a great bracket.
would stomp either Auburn or Ohio State in second round
get to beat either Kansas or Tennessee in sweet 16. nether of those teams can score with us.
elite 8 we would likely play either Virginia as 3 seed or Texas as 2 seed. likely give Sean Miller another elite 8 loss.
Illinois 1 seed in what I think would be a great bracket.
would stomp either Auburn or Ohio State in second round
get to beat either Kansas or Tennessee in sweet 16. nether of those teams can score with us.
elite 8 we would likely play either Virginia as 3 seed or Texas as 2 seed. likely give Sean Miller another elite 8 loss.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
I don’t know. As the lead guard, Vaaks will likely be the highest usage player on a projected 1 seed. 3rd team All American equivalent is definitely in play.
foby
- Bonnaroo Land
As of right now, this looks like a
Of course, the way the season shakes up will change a lot of things.
Some of the incoming freshman are further along than expected. Going to be some tough calls.
This isn't just from the staff, so not just your typical "rose colored" assessment during the summer.
This isn't just from the staff, so not just your typical "rose colored" assessment during the summer.