I could not find a good tool for a "1-hour drive time" radius, but I wanted to repeat that same exercise for both a 75-mile and 125-mile radius around select Big Ten campuses using
this website. I'm limiting this to the 2012ish Big Ten (i.e., the traditional 10 plus PSU and Nebraska) since it is just more relevant to Illinois, IMO.
75-Mile Radius
Northwestern - 10,745,320
Michigan - 7,109,756
Michigan State - 6,939,681
Minnesota - 4,510,012
Ohio State - 4,246,800
Wisconsin - 3,553,448
Purdue - 3,536,454
Indiana - 3,371,874
Penn State - 1,993,457
Nebraska - 1,625,379
Illinois - 1,483,161
Iowa - 1,420,350
125-Mile Radius
Northwestern - 16,225,909
Purdue - 14,540,832
Wisconsin - 14,067,550
Illinois - 13,399,127
Michigan - 12,661,439
Ohio State - 12,210,632
Michigan State - 11,487,620
Penn State - 11,202,829
Indiana - 9,323,458
Minnesota - 5,645,276
Iowa - 3,538,809
Nebraska - 2,429,384
So once again, you see a huge increase for Illinois, indicating that we do indeed rely on "non-local" fans to help swell our crowds. For the sake of comparing schools to Illinois, I will remove the following from closer analysis:
1. Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State due to decades of winning creating large additions of bandwagon fans (which I am defining as non-alum and non-instate supporters of those football programs).
2. Northwestern due to the somewhat misleading population numbers because of how it is nestled in a massive metro area where it actually has very little fan support.
So of the remaining ones, these are the number of counties that are out of state for the 75-mile radius. I could not take the time to count up all of the 125-mile radius counties, but the idea here is to try to identify if a team's "local population" seems artificially large because it is extending into another fan's territory and just happens to be geographically near a border.
Instate Counties in 75-Mile Radius
Michigan State - 0
Iowa - 4 in Illinois
Nebraska - 4 in Iowa and 2 in Kansas
Wisconsin - 5 in Illinois
Minnesota - 6 in Wisconsin
Purdue - 6 in Illinois
Indiana - 5 in Illinois and 2 in Kentucky
Illinois - 8 in Indiana
Just some subjective commentary here, but I don't think Iowa or Nebraska really suffer much here, as Western Illinois is very Hawkeye-friendly and Western Iowa is bona fide Husker territory from my experiences and the data I have seen. I also think Illinois suffers less than you might assume, as Eastern Illinois is rock solid Illini territory, and (admittedly not perfect) fan data like the NYT map from a decade ago indicate there is very decent Illini support in far Western Indiana.
I think the big losers here are Minnesota (Western Wisconsin is easily Badgers territory, and most data shows Badger support creeping well into Eastern Minnesota), Purdue (see previous comments about Illini support geography in that area) and Indiana (their radius is attacked from all sides, getting WAY too close to the Illinois border, Louisville MSA and Cincinnati MSA to retain strong Hoosier support throughout that area).
Up to this point and considering the geography of the maps, the populations and the fan dynamics at play, I subjectively think our most relevant comparisons would be the following schools, in order from most ambitious to least ambitious. All are in "college towns" that aren't directly in huge cities, all have had at least some ups and downs over the years, etc. I'll post the radius map for each, as well, including ours.
Illinois - 1,483,161
1. Michigan State - 6,939,681
2. Iowa - 1,420,350
3. Purdue - 3,536,454
So, a few rambling notes...
1. When looking at those maps and comparing it to fan maps that are available, it is incredibly apparent that - with the exception of possibly Iowa, who is maybe a bit ahead of us here - Illinois has EASILY some of the most "friendly" turf. There is no Michigan to our MSU or Notre Dame to our Purdue in that specific radius of Central Illinois. That is an important advantage for us to keep in mind.
2. Purdue is our low end that we should shoot for, for the following reasons.
---> A) They haven't been any better than us in recent years, and however "better" they were than us in the last couple decades is marginal in terms of picking up fans.
---> B) They face significantly more instate competition for fans than we do, with Indiana fans to their south, (especially) Notre Dame fans to their north and even Illini fans to their west. Our borders are way more "protected."
3. MSU is indeed the ambitious one here, given they have a larger school, a MUCH better history over the last couple decades and obviously a much, much larger population within 75 miles. However, I would argue this is a bit deceiving. How far east can you go in MSU's radius before 50% or more of the fans there are Wolverines? How saturated is the southwest of the radius with Notre Dame fans? How many OSU fans start to appear near the southeast border? All this is to say that drawing an average crowd of 70,000 like MSU did last year is NOT some completely unrealistic
long-term goal for a healthy Illini program that keeps winning 8+ games regularly.
4. I think that leaves Iowa as the best comparison to judge ourselves against. They have some factors going for them (better recent history and perhaps more "college sports frenzy" in their radius), and we have some factors going for us (bigger MSA population, bigger radius population, larger student body by A LOT, etc.). The "better recent history" is being fixed year by year, and we have seen the huge increase in attendance. Thus...
TL;DR
I see literally no reason at all why GMS shouldn't
eventually be geared to match Iowa's average attendance last year of 69,250. That increase would allow incredible improvements to our stadium, namely the SEZ / Horseshoe. I understand Josh and Co. waiting and prioritizing other things, but I do hope there is a "Plan A" scenario or whatever that involves something to complete the Horseshoe, because it needs completed and we can easily find the fans.