Illini Basketball 2026-2027

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#726      
You're the one who first called Williams, zens, and Brown top 100 guys. That claim isn't even close.

Already been explained... no need to rehash

The 247composite is most reliable. It converges all the the data from rankings industry. Hawkins and DGL are both rated much higher than Zens.

There was no composite then, so its not a 1:1 comp

Geezus you people are intolerable, we have a top 3 team and all you can do is drone on about the guys who will barely play, literally insufferable
 
#727      
The 247composite is most reliable. It converges all the the data from rankings industry. Hawkins and DGL are both rated much higher than Zens.
I really don’t like using Keaton as an example, because I think he’s such a unicorn… BUT:

247 had Keaton at 150 and the composite had him at 261. The 247 guys love bragging about it on their YouTube shows — they were wrong, but less wrong than the others.

Adam F. has said he never saw Keaton play live until December. It was Eric Bossi, who went to go see him his senior year, and came away impressed enough to advocate for him to be ranked in their top 150 rankings.

…..

About Hawkins-DGL-Zens …. they’re all similar profile players. The composite is just a little lower on Zens, while 247 has him as a 4star and had the others as 3 stars.
 
#728      
I also think the better conversation to be had is not what the ranking services think of the players (because, let’s be honest, they are lamen compared to a D1 coaching staff), but rather the conversation should be about whether we trust the talent evaluation of our coaching staff.

So… do we, or not? 🤷‍♂️
 
#729      
Since people say this so loosely, let's break it down.

Our top 8: Vaaks, Coleman, Stojakovic, Mirkovic, Tomi, Z, Jake, Morillo.

Tomi and Z are graduating -- can't come back even with pending 5 for 5 -- so that's 2.

Jake isn't departing due to graduation (5 for 5), and he doesn't have the NBA potential to turn down a year of college to go to the draft, so not him. He'll either come back or transfer (regardless of which he chooses, he isn't going to the draft, and he isn't graduating).

So that leaves 5 wild cards: QC, Vaaks, Morillo, Stojakovic, Mirkovic.

To satisfy your 7 number, all 5 would have to go to the draft.

To satisfy 6, 4 would have to go to the draft.

To satisfy 5, 3 would have to go to the draft.
OK, 7 was pushing it. I can definitely see a world where QC, Vaaks, Mirk and Stojakovic go to the draft. A lot would have to go right for them, but I can see each of them doing it.
 
#730      
I also think the better conversation to be had is not what the ranking services think of the players (because, let’s be honest, they are lamen compared to a D1 coaching staff), but rather the conversation should be about whether we trust the talent evaluation of our coaching staff.

So… do we, or not? 🤷‍♂️
Well, we do. But we also know that they fill slots. We're not even talking Jakstys.
 
#731      
I also think the better conversation to be had is not what the ranking services think of the players (because, let’s be honest, they are lamen compared to a D1 coaching staff), but rather the conversation should be about whether we trust the talent evaluation of our coaching staff.

So… do we, or not? 🤷‍♂️
Good question when it comes to depth. Because when we had 2 players injured last year Brad sure wouldn't go past a 6 player rotation. Tells you how he felt about scholarships 9-15.
 
#732      
So was Wagler… rankings don’t matter much when you get to that range.

I trust this staff to hit on one of those 3 to be capable of scoring 2 points in 7 minutes and playing capable defense.
Yep, and that's the key. We only need 1 out of the 3 to be capable of a super minimal role.

In some ways it might be lesser risk than going all in on a 10 point per game transfer from the lower level. If that guy is a bust, then you don't have a 9th man at all. But in our situation, you have 3 chances to find 1 who can be serviceable (as a 9th).

If you just compare USC's 9th man versus Illinois' 9th man (which is basically what this thread has been about), USC wins. But does that really make or break a roster? Probably not.
 
#735      
Good question when it comes to depth. Because when we had 2 players injured last year Brad sure wouldn't go past a 6 player rotation. Tells you how he felt about scholarships 9-15.

So then you don’t trust their talent evaluation. Heck, you’re saying not even Brad believes in it.

I think if you go through and explore game by game you’ll see we did use those 9th and 10th men (Lee, Petrovic) on spots where they were usable. A one point overtime game is not one of those spots. This is pretty common, by the way.
 
#736      
the entire season hinges on it
If we don't find a #9thman


We Are Doomed Reaction GIF
 
#737      
that was exactly the one question I had as well? it had to be him.

also QC seems do be doing all the little things already

vaaks is huge and looking to shoot

tomi looks in better shape as well
"Vaaks is huge and looking to shoot". Did he have more than one shot in that clip?
 
#739      
You're the one who first called Williams, zens, and Brown top 100 guys. That claim isn't even close.
First Rule of this board - all our recruits are ranked too low.

Second Rule - if you must quote a player's rnaking, cherry pick the most favorable one.

Third - all our guys "could" grow a couple inches. But that will never happen with opposing teams' recruits.
 
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#740      
Good question when it comes to depth. Because when we had 2 players injured last year Brad sure wouldn't go past a 6 player rotation. Tells you how he felt about scholarships 9-15.
That sums it up perfectly.

If two of the top 8 get hurt, is the coach comfortable enough in the roster to go past a 6 man rotation? Most years the answer has been yes. Last year it was a no. Ideally, you’d hope our 9th man spot is more reliable next year.
I think if you go through and explore game by game you’ll see we did use those 9th and 10th men (Lee, Petrovic) on spots where they were usable. A one point overtime game is not one of those spots. This is pretty common, by the way.
We didn’t though. Almost all other years the 9th man plays in 70-80% of games (or more), while playing 5+ minutes per game across those outings.

Last season was different, because Petro and Lee were too unreliable.
 
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#741      
The 247composite is most reliable. It converges all the the data from rankings industry. Hawkins and DGL are both rated much higher than Zens.
Have your composite then:

DGL - #149 in the COMPOSITE, score 0.9361

1784212659433.png


CoHawk - #167 in the COMPOSITE, score 0.9237

1784212691452.png



Zens - #146 in the COMPOSITE, score 0.9319

1784212838110.png



He's ranked slightly higher than DGL was, higher than CoHawk was, and score wise is right in between. In the Composite.
 
#742      
Good question when it comes to depth. Because when we had 2 players injured last year Brad sure wouldn't go past a 6 player rotation. Tells you how he felt about scholarships 9-15.

Ehhh

It’s a data point for sure. But…

Lots of factors - Andrej was pulled from warmup lines versus Wisconsin, really no prep/scout time for any backups in that spot, plus it was a quality opponent.

We play a brutal nonconference, so not inflated bench player numbers comparatively to other teams

Brad also likes to juice metrics, he’ll go for blowout wins to pump up the NET.

Petrovic will always be the one we debate, and I just don’t believe it’s ever as black and white as “Brad believed Petro could play and did. Or Brad believed Petro couldn’t play and didn’t.”
 
#743      
Have your composite then:

DGL - #149 in the COMPOSITE, score 0.9361

View attachment 50887

CoHawk - #167 in the COMPOSITE, score 0.9237

View attachment 50888


Zens - #146 in the COMPOSITE, score 0.9319

View attachment 50889


He's ranked slightly higher than DGL was, higher than CoHawk was, and score wise is right in between. In the Composite.
Zens was also a MaxPreps All American. If our front court wasn’t so loaded, he’d probably be the likeliest #9thMan.
 
#744      
I'm also going to note something weird going on here with Zens' Composite score:


1784213728654.png


On 7/7 he was rated 0.9523 which was good for #106 in the class and was much higher than DGA's score. Just three days later his score took a nosedive. Why? It's not entirely clear. ESPN, his lowest rating, hasn't updated since mid-May. 247 did not change their rating on that date, in fact they re-issued him the same score. It's possible Rivals dropped him significantly, but they currently have him as an 89, just one point shy of where 247 had him so I'm doubtful there could have been a big drop there, and if there was, why?

I wondered if there was some kind of tweak to the way this is calculated that resulted in both the big rise in May and later correction just last week, but when I looked at the history for Ethan Brown and Licoln Williams, they were pretty static, both in ranking and rating.

Generally too, I'm just confused about how the Composite score is actually calculated. I've seen some say it's just a simple averaging of scores from 247, Rivals, and ESPN. But all these tiny little increases or deductions you see, .0002 there, .0004 here, don't really make sense to me in that context.
 
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#748      
Last season was different, because Petro and Lee were too unreliable.

They were about as reliable as any of our previous #9thmen: relegated to getting minutes in buy games and blowouts

Couple questions:

1) Did having a 22 year old Euro league MVP candidate and a 4 star top 100 guy give us a reliable #9th man? **
2) Did we also go to a Final Four?

** trick question: you already answered this in your previous post :)
 
#749      
Why would we be talking about Jakstys for #9th man? He’s pretty clearly 3rd string center (emergency big).
My point is that while we trust the staff on talent evaluation, we also know that they've recruited guys who aren't up to filling the task of 9th or 10th man. Do they see Brown as only a filler?

Nevertheless, I trust that between those last four guys (I include Morillo) we're going to be fine at 8 and 9.
 
#750      
If you just compare USC's 9th man versus Illinois' 9th man (which is basically what this thread has been about), USC wins. But does that really make or break a roster? Probably not.
It doesn’t make or break a roster, but it does mean we aren’t as deep as that team and other top teams in the big ten (especially when the difference is that severe - one’s a boarderline 5 star guy and the other’s barely ranked top 150).

It also means one team is significantly more equipped to handle injuries, while the other isn’t.
 
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