Illini Basketball 2026-2027

#901      
oh my god. i'm gone for two weeks and and the 9th man argument is still going on. what an embarrassment of riches!
and now, our point guards are too tall! you guys have anything else to do?
To be fair, I don’t think anyone (here) is acting upset about this.

The discussion started regarding the Mike LaTulip interview with the Field of 68 guy.
 
#903      
I feel like this is a fair point and an irrelevant point at the same time.

Vaaks's assist rate last year: 18.1

…..

If you ask those same FO68 guys, or any other "Illinois doesn't have a point guard" outspoken... who FLORIDA'S point guard is?

The answer you'll get is Boogie Fland, almost assuredly.

Boogie Fland assist rate last year: 18.2.

But – Vaaks is 6"7 while Boogie is 6"2.

......

If you ask who Texas's point guard is, the answer you'll get is Isiah Johnson.

Johnson's assist rate: 18.6.

But – Vaaks is 6”7 while Johnson is 6”1.

…..

If you ask who Louisville’s point guard is, the answer you'll get is Jackson Shelstad.

Shelstad assist rate last time he played a legitimate season: 15.5

But – Shelstad is 6”1 while Vaaks is 6”7.

…..

If you ask who UCLA's point guard is, the answer you'll get is either Jaylen Petty or Trent Perry.

Perry assist rate last year: 16.8
Petty assist rate: 12.3

But – Petty is 6”1, Perry is 6”4, Vaaks is 6”7.

…..

If Vaaks was 6”2, no one would be having that conversation, ever.

A good write up. And true.

Another add. Even if assist rates were lower, there’s further context around how we play.

We pass to get immediate buckets, yes, ofcourse. But we really pass to hunt advantages. We win getting the ball to the right spot, and letting our skill and height takeover from there.

It’s slower to develop and may not lead to counting assists all the time.
 
#904      
Well that’s the last time I’ll ever give the talking heads the benefit of the doubt.
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#906      
The point guard thing is just an example of dumb narratives being pushed by national pundits. It was never an issue. Domask averaged 4 assists per game, was a great initatior, and we had the number 3 offense.
I think it was a little bit of an issue early on. Domask didnt really start playing point until late December and then to his credit he improved immensely over the next few months. Don't know if I've ever seen a player so clearly grow as much as he did that season. For example, early on it seemed like he was a bit late to identify and pass when doubled but then he was shredding them by Feb/March.
It was an issue early on. But it was solved by like December. (I remember Domask had a 30+ point game against FAU, and we basically marked that as his "breakout")

Problem is, the "no point guard" narrative didn't stop there. It continued for the rest of the season, and concluded when our season concluded on March 30th.

I remember folks claiming we'll lose to Iowa State, with the unanimous logic being our offense will plateau with 20+ turnovers, and we won't even be able to get shots up. Because, well, “they don't have a point guard.”

…..

Except….

1) Our Turnovers Per 100 Possessions that season was SIGNIFICANTLY lower than previous seasons:

2021 – 18.1
2022 – 18.2
2023 – 18.3
2024 – 14.9

(FWIW, 2025 was 16.0 and 2026 was 13.1

2025 wasn't great, but it felt that much worse because we played so fast, resulting in more raw turnovers. In 2026, Keaton was just outstanding)


2) for the past FIVE WEEKS of basketball leading up to ISU – which included a sample of 10 games and WINNING the Big Ten Tournament – the most turnovers Illinois hit in any game was 12. We only hit double figures in 3 of those 10 games as well.

For a team that played as fast as we did – over 70 poss per 40 – that’s good enough to win a lot of games.

Penn State was bad (18 turnovers), but for a whole month after that we were very good.

…..

And surely, Iowa State game rolls around... and we only concede 12 turnovers (which is very good when you're playing Otzelberger’s Iowa State).

This is way too long of a post, but it just shows how “no point guard” was like the 350th problem on the list of all problems. I didn't even mention how we had the #3 offense.

Talking heads just created a narrative, and ran with it.

And their uninformed audience believed it because, well, there just wasn't a 6 foot 1 guy on Illinois's roster. Yeah Domask is good... he's just 6”6. (which is so stupid)
 
#913      
1) Our Turnovers Per 100 Possessions that season was SIGNIFICANTLY lower than previous seasons:

2021 – 18.1
2022 – 18.2
2023 – 18.3
2024 – 14.9

(FWIW, 2025 was 16.0 and 2026 was 13.1

2025 wasn't great, but it felt that much worse because we played so fast, resulting in more raw turnovers. In 2026, Keaton was just outstanding)
That's an interesting trend with the turnovers, and I wonder the scheme behind it.
 
#916      
That's an interesting trend with the turnovers, and I wonder the scheme behind it.
Here's the full assist to turnover numbers, per 100 possessions:

2021: 22.7 ast / 18.1 tov (1.25 ratio)
2022: 22.3 ast / 18.2 tov (1.23 ratio)
2023: 17.6 ast / 18.3 tov (0.96 ratio)
2024: 18.8 ast / 14.9 tov (1.26 ratio)
2025: 20.4 ast / 16.0 tov (1.28 ratio)
2026: 21.3 ast / 13.1 tov (1.63 ratio)

Not sure what we were doing in 2023. It's the lowest assist rate AND highest turnover rate of all the seasons.

2025 is better than it LOOKED (at least in terms of the turnovers). Our pace was just so high, the box score TOs would be inflated.

2026 is far and away the most efficient. And yes, this was a big reason why:
 
#917      
Seattle U has had a decent squad the last few years- I don’t know anything about their current retention or roster but may end up quad 3.
 
#918      
I’ll start building this giant horse structure as a piece offering to the Trojans. But don’t worry, it’ll be hollow inside so we can all jump in, and they’ll allow us in that way. That’s how we’ll sneak in!

Someone may write a story about it one day!
Jonah Hill References GIF
 
#919      
It was an issue early on. But it was solved by like December. (I remember Domask had a 30+ point game against FAU, and we basically marked that as his "breakout")

Problem is, the "no point guard" narrative didn't stop there. It continued for the rest of the season, and concluded when our season concluded on March 30th.

I remember folks claiming we'll lose to Iowa State, with the unanimous logic being our offense will plateau with 20+ turnovers, and we won't even be able to get shots up. Because, well, “they don't have a point guard.”

…..

Except….

1) Our Turnovers Per 100 Possessions that season was SIGNIFICANTLY lower than previous seasons:

2021 – 18.1
2022 – 18.2
2023 – 18.3
2024 – 14.9

(FWIW, 2025 was 16.0 and 2026 was 13.1

2025 wasn't great, but it felt that much worse because we played so fast, resulting in more raw turnovers. In 2026, Keaton was just outstanding)


2) for the past FIVE WEEKS of basketball leading up to ISU – which included a sample of 10 games and WINNING the Big Ten Tournament – the most turnovers Illinois hit in any game was 12. We only hit double figures in 3 of those 10 games as well.

For a team that played as fast as we did – over 70 poss per 40 – that’s good enough to win a lot of games.

Penn State was bad (18 turnovers), but for a whole month after that we were very good.

…..

And surely, Iowa State game rolls around... and we only concede 12 turnovers (which is very good when you're playing Otzelberger’s Iowa State).

This is way too long of a post, but it just shows how “no point guard” was like the 350th problem on the list of all problems. I didn't even mention how we had the #3 offense.

Talking heads just created a narrative, and ran with it.

And their uninformed audience believed it because, well, there just wasn't a 6 foot 1 guy on Illinois's roster. Yeah Domask is good... he's just 6”6. (which is so stupid)
Could you imagine if social media was a thing in the late 1970s and early 1980s?

Michigan State and LA Laker fans would have flipped their stuff over a 6-9 point guard……..
 
#922      
Here's the full assist to turnover numbers, per 100 possessions:

2021: 22.7 ast / 18.1 tov (1.25 ratio)
2022: 22.3 ast / 18.2 tov (1.23 ratio)
2023: 17.6 ast / 18.3 tov (0.96 ratio)
2024: 18.8 ast / 14.9 tov (1.26 ratio)
2025: 20.4 ast / 16.0 tov (1.28 ratio)
2026: 21.3 ast / 13.1 tov (1.63 ratio)

Not sure what we were doing in 2023. It's the lowest assist rate AND highest turnover rate of all the seasons.

2025 is better than it LOOKED (at least in terms of the turnovers). Our pace was just so high, the box score TOs would be inflated.

2026 is far and away the most efficient. And yes, this was a big reason why:
I think the lack of running — and thus the system — helped keep turnovers low this past year I believe Illini were very close to bottom nationally in fast break points.
 
#923      
Seattle U is kind of an interesting one. A decent kenpom team last year, who really should have beat Gonzaga in Spokane.

No idea what they got in line this year, but that's a Colgate-esque program.
Also won AT Washington last year. I recall watching some of the game, they are a decent team that can beat you if you are sleepwalking.
 
#924      
I think the lack of running — and thus the system — helped keep turnovers low this past year I believe Illini were very close to bottom nationally in fast break points.

What you responded to was turnovers per possession, so already accounts for pace. But, maybe you're thinking the slower pace keeps things more calm / less frenetic and thus helps turnover rate (to which I'd agree a bit, but don't think the difference would be so pronounced).
 
#925      
Also won AT Washington last year. I recall watching some of the game, they are a decent team that can beat you if you are sleepwalking.
Actually Washington was at home for Seattle, though they did beat Stanford on the road. They were pretty bad on the road in first year in WCC only beating two dregs outside their home arena. My Beavs split with them.

They were a senior laden team last year, so could be a down year for them. I know they did retain their top undergrad, but no idea what they are bringing in. Chris Victor has done a nice job there, but might need some minor miracles to have them competitive this year.
 
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