Also won AT Washington last year. I recall watching some of the game, they are a decent team that can beat you if you are sleepwalking.
Illini Basketball 2026-2027
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What you responded to was turnovers per possession, so already accounts for pace. But, maybe you're thinking the slower pace keeps things more calm / less frenetic and thus helps turnover rate (to which I'd agree a bit, but don't think the difference would be so pronounced).
Actually Washington was at home for Seattle, though they did beat Stanford on the road. They were pretty bad on the road in first year in WCC only beating two dregs outside their home arena. My Beavs split with them.
They were a senior laden team last year, so could be a down year for them. I know they did retain their top undergrad, but no idea what they are bringing in. Chris Victor has done a nice job there, but might need some minor miracles to have them competitive this year.
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Illwinsagain
- Cary, IL
Stop making sense....
Yes, slower pace and primarily a half court offense I think helped a fair amount keeping turnovers down. And as it has been pointed out, Keaton had a lot to do with it too. Didn’t look too hard but couldn’t find fast break points for years other than the past seasons. I’d be curious to see that overlaid on turnover rate.
Too bad he went to the Knicks. He'd have been better in smaller media market. He just seemed to lose motivation after the Marbury trade.
Illwinsagain
- Cary, IL
Too soon....
Depends on what you do with the possession. When the ball sticks, no one moves, and we shot a desperation 3-pointer from 27' at the buzzer that's a turnover!
May not show on the stat sheet but we watched that for years.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
To shift conversation from USC ( 
) toward the appropriate hype for this upcoming season, let's note that we have made the Elite Eight and beyond (my personal, subjective cutoff for a "deep Tournament run") during the following seasons, and this is where we started the next season ranked. Due to the second stat, we are only counting seasons in the AP Poll era (i.e., 1942 gets the boot).
1949 Final Four --> NR in 1949-50
1951 Final Four --> NR in 1951-52
1952 Final Four --> NR in 1952-53
1963 Elite Eight --> NR in 1963-64
1984 Elite Eight --> #2 in 1984-85
1989 Final Four --> #8 in 1989-90
2001 Elite Eight --> #3 in 2001-02
2005 National Runner-Up --> #17 in 2005-06
2024 Elite Eight --> NR in 2024-25
2026 Final Four --> ~#3 in 2026-27
So, while we don't know our exact ranking, it is probably the most preseason hype purely in terms of our preseason AP ranking since before 1984-1985 and 2001-2002. However, both of those were coming off of an Elite Eight appearance ... not a Final Four. You could VERY easily make the case that this is the single most "riding high," 2-season period of Illini Basketball history ... now let's deliver on that hype!!
) toward the appropriate hype for this upcoming season, let's note that we have made the Elite Eight and beyond (my personal, subjective cutoff for a "deep Tournament run") during the following seasons, and this is where we started the next season ranked. Due to the second stat, we are only counting seasons in the AP Poll era (i.e., 1942 gets the boot).1949 Final Four --> NR in 1949-50
1951 Final Four --> NR in 1951-52
1952 Final Four --> NR in 1952-53
1963 Elite Eight --> NR in 1963-64
1984 Elite Eight --> #2 in 1984-85
1989 Final Four --> #8 in 1989-90
2001 Elite Eight --> #3 in 2001-02
2005 National Runner-Up --> #17 in 2005-06
2024 Elite Eight --> NR in 2024-25
2026 Final Four --> ~#3 in 2026-27
So, while we don't know our exact ranking, it is probably the most preseason hype purely in terms of our preseason AP ranking since before 1984-1985 and 2001-2002. However, both of those were coming off of an Elite Eight appearance ... not a Final Four. You could VERY easily make the case that this is the single most "riding high," 2-season period of Illini Basketball history ... now let's deliver on that hype!!
This logic is SO wrong.
Our offensive rebound rate this past season was 39.3%. When that “desperation 3-pointer” goes up, you essentially have a 40% chance of getting that ball back (assuming it doesn’t go in, which is an additional possibility).
With a turnover, you’ve lost the possession, point blank.
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Curbelo Fanboy
BERTBALL IS LIFE
This is the first time we have made the final four & brought back a team that might be as good or perhaps better later in the year if guys like Mirk & Andrej take a big jump. We've had maybe 3 seasons in my lifetime where we had serious title aspirations coming in. 1989, 2002, 2005. Remember in 02 SI had us preseason #1. Didn't deliver on the hype tho. I'd add this coming year to the mix. The game is so different with so much turnover but we kept a solid chunk of our key contributors & added some good pieces to the mix.To shift conversation from USC (
1949 Final Four --> NR in 1949-50
1951 Final Four --> NR in 1951-52
1952 Final Four --> NR in 1952-53
1963 Elite Eight --> NR in 1963-64
1984 Elite Eight --> #2 in 1984-85
1989 Final Four --> #8 in 1989-90
2001 Elite Eight --> #3 in 2001-02
2005 National Runner-Up --> #17 in 2005-06
2024 Elite Eight --> NR in 2024-25
2026 Final Four --> ~#3 in 2026-27
So, while we don't know our exact ranking, it is probably the most preseason hype purely in terms of our preseason AP ranking since before 1984-1985 and 2001-2002. However, both of those were coming off of an Elite Eight appearance ... not a Final Four. You could VERY easily make the case that this is the single most "riding high," 2-season period of Illini Basketball history ... now let's deliver on that hype!!
Guys, the gist is: less turnovers —> more efficient offense.
2021 Kenpom O-Rating - 118.0
2022 Kenpom O-Rating - 112.0
2023 Kenpom O-Rating - 111.1
2024 Kenpom O-Rating - 125.5
2025 Kenpom O-Rating - 121.9
2026 Kenpom O-Rating - 131.1
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No doubt this is our highest expectation heading into a season since '05. We have to watch the complacency that I think hit Purdue last year in a very similar spot of having 3 key guys return after an NC game appearance and they all got paid huge dollars in NIL. One reason I think our guys don't fall into that trap this year is the fact that our guys are high on NBA radars. We have 6 guys that could get drafted next year and guys like Mirk and Vaaks are playing for improving their first round draft stock. The Purdue big three knew they would not be first round picks. We also have younger guys that are still hungry - we're counting on 2 Sophomores to initiate our offense and a freshman to be a key starter, so I don't think we fall into the same trap - just a theory.
The thought seems reasonable (slower pace; less frantic possessions), but I don’t think there’s a ton of correlation here.
Here’s our possessions per 40, for those years:
2021 — 71.0
2022 — 67.6
2023 — 69.6
2024 — 70.3
2025 — 72.4
2026 — 65.7
And these were the turnover numbers:
…..
Yes our slowest tempo resulted in the lowest turnover rate (2026), but other than that, there’s little evidence of faster pace causing more turnovers (per possession).
In fact, our 2nd slowest team (2022), had the 2nd highest TO rate of the six seasons. And our 3rd slowest team (2023), had the highest TO rate of the six seasons.
I think it’s probably just increased emphasis from the coaching staff to not waste possessions, along with the fact Keaton was very non-erratic with the ball.
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I love the Seattle matchup. Along with our Penn and IU games, we'll get a nostalgic look at some once proud basketball programs.
Seattle beat Washington last year, and took Gonzaga to overtime.
I was there that night my first ever Illini game attended. I went to Lou Henson basketball camp in the 90s but never a live game until that night. It was electric still remember the noise in there that night.
We'll win a lot of games, but I do expect some complacency. College bball is incredibly competitive, and there's going to be a handful of teams besides Illinois with the kind of talent needed to win it all.
As a fan, you love the team that exceeds expectations like we did this past season. This year, we're expecting more.
Actually no! My reply was to the slower pace of play last year resulting in fewer turnovers. Yes we got the rebound on 3's 40% of the time which means we lost it 60% of the time. If you think back to the Ayo Kofi era many of the turnovers were either the ball sticking or AC getting silly. My point is that on a team with this many options you will see less turnovers because we aren't looking for one or two players to score.
Level of risk taking is another component. Last year we were hunting matchups more than trying to thread needles (passing or dribbling). It helps to have tall good shooters
I like adding Seattle to the schedule — nice to get some new blood — and the team has won 20+ games in four of five seasons under Chris Victor but this is very likely going to be a down year for them. As I mentioned in a previous post, they had a lot of seniors this past year. Six of their top players in minutes played were seniors this year and a transfer out. We’re talking 5 of 6 top scorers in that group, 5 of 6 made 3-pt shots, 5 of top 7 rebounders, and 4 of top 5 in assists. No idea what they have coming in from portal, but being that this game will likely be relatively early in season, I’d expect a pretty easy game for Illini.
Seattle U also plays half their games at Climate Pledge, so could be a nice way in 2 yrs to get another non conf game in on the W Coast when already travelling to face UW and OR, and do it in front of a lot of peeps.
Alot of it is the primary ball handler. It's unlikely Vaaks will replicate Keaton's level of poise and feel (though he should still be good).
It's highly likely that we'll be worse offensively and defensively next year.
Hopefully the big ten as a whole is worse.
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