Connelly’s SP+ puts us at 7.0-5.0 which sounds about right.
Here’s our schedule breakdown from most difficult to least with our own SP+ ranking included for reference:
D2. SIU
124. UAB
82. Purdue
67. Michigan St
53. Maryland
49. Northwestern
48. UCLA
44. Duke
37. Nebraska
33. Illinois
22. Iowa
2. Oregon
1. Ohio St
9 of the teams we play are ranked lower than us on SP+, but obviously you don’t beat every team that’s ranked lower than you, especially when we’re talking about + or - a few spots.
If we divide up the schedule like this:
25 spots or more below: automatic win
25 spots or more above: automatic loss
Within 24 spots: split 50/50
4 automatic wins. 2 automatic losses. Then the remaining 6 games split 50/50 puts us at 7-5.
I don’t necessarily see 6 games that “even if we crap our pants we should win”. I’d say there’s 4 of those. But still, overall a very favorable schedule.