I am NOT pushing back on the point that you need a great offense to win a natty.
However, that particular statistical analogy I just can't stand (and will never be able to stand). The "every champion since x season has been x in offense and x in defense" arguments.
OF COURSE those teams will be top whatever in offense, defense, and have such and such KenPom rating. Because those ratings are AFTER THEY WON THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP. KenPom does not magically stop on Selection Sunday. Almost all of the top 25 teams in a given year would satisfy those requirements, had there been a national championship run in their season.
It's crazy to me how many times it gets said when filling out brackets, before the tournament. And how nintelligent minds continue to fall for it. It's the single most useless thing anyone can take stock in.
Just go on Torvik, and set the "end" date at Selection Sunday of the year you're investigating.Its crazy how sure of themselves people can be, yet be so so wrong.
1. Pre-Tournament data exists: your entire premise rests on the false assumption that we are trapped using "polluted" post-tournament data. Tournament game data is still data (and also: it is the most recent data that's available... I'd actually weight it heavier, if we had a choice)
You'll be able to see all ADJ-OE and ADJ-DE ratings.
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