Illini Basketball 2026-2027

#176      
SescIllini
OrangeNTude said:
#9th man.

In all honesty, I know it’s not realistic, but I wish we could see a lot of all the freshmen. I believe Coleman is going to start but I wish some of the others would be breakout players so it’s impossible to not play them.
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Key is going to be development and retention, they all seem really good players. Have this group as a solid base and sprinkle 1-2 5 star talents and we are cooking. Look what Iowa and Wisconsin did this past year by developing players while adding 1-2 transfers.

Just our stars and base/role players will be better.
 
#177      
EmeraldCityIllini
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
Yes because the "ceiling" of our defense is not what it would need to be to win a national title
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Since 2015, there’s only been 2 national champions outside the top 5 in offense - and even then, both those teams were still in the top 10, and Kansas itself was 6.

I’d push back on MSU at 26th last year as proving they have an offensive ceiling good enough to win a title.

Now, while the past 10+ years defensive rating hasn’t corresponded as strongly as offense (there’s a few teams who won outside the top 15, and 5 outside the top ten altogether), it’s still pretty clear you wanna firmly be inside the top 15 - and think that should be the goal for us and I don’t think at true “ceiling” that’s impossible.
 
#178      
NarrowJ
EmeraldCityIllini said:
Since 2015, there’s only been 2 national champions outside the top 5 in offense - and even then, both those teams were still in the top 10, and Kansas itself was 6.

I’d push back on MSU at 26th last year as proving they have an offensive ceiling good enough to win a title.

Now, while the past 10+ years defensive rating hasn’t corresponded as strongly as offense (there’s a few teams who won outside the top 15, and 5 outside the top ten altogether), it’s still pretty clear you wanna firmly be inside the top 15 - and think that should be the goal for us and I don’t think at true “ceiling” that’s impossible.
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You really asked him that question though like you didn’t already know what the answer was going to be 😉
 
#179      
EmeraldCityIllini
NarrowJ said:
You really asked him that question though like you didn’t already know what the answer was going to be 😉
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lol.

I actually think looking at Kenpom, you can make a real case the days of “top 40 offense and top 25 defense” are just totally gone.

It’s pretty much a non negotiable you need to have a top 10 offense, but also true the defense really can’t be outside the top 15 without requiring some tourney luck (which isn’t a bad spot either with bites at the apple).

Metrically, all these recent winners have been powerhouses (so remember that come season when we get the random conference loss and we hear about how Kenpom is fake).

If you wanna make the case top 20 for Illinois actually isn’t good enough to win a title, I actually think there’s some merit. But just know only 3-4 teams are gonna then qualify as “ceiling could be a national title” under that logic
 
#181      
wc_illini
EmeraldCityIllini said:
lol.

I actually think looking at Kenpom, you can make a real case the days of “top 40 offense and top 25 defense” are just totally gone.

It’s pretty much a non negotiable you need to have a top 10 offense, but also true the defense really can’t be outside the top 15 without requiring some tourney luck (which isn’t a bad spot either with bites at the apple).

Metrically, all these recent winners have been powerhouses (so remember that come season when we get the random conference loss and we hear about how Kenpom is fake).

If you wanna make the case top 20 for Illinois actually isn’t good enough to win a title, I actually think there’s some merit. But just know only 3-4 teams are gonna then qualify as “ceiling could be a national title” under that logic
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Yeah, "ceiling" is kind of a dumb exercise for something with a high variance, especially a single elimination tournament. If they want to identify teams whose ceiling is top tier (i.e. a 1-seed), that's a bit better I guess, but still seems like too many teams could end up there if one of their freshman is half the surprise Keaton was and a couple returnees/transfers take a reasonable step forward.
 
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