Illini Basketball 2026-2027

[Hereforit]

Landon Davis is a project player. I mean that in the best possible way. Lots of potential, and he plays in a way that the Illinois coaching staff really likes. He didn’t put up big numbers in high school, but he was also playing with another Big 10 recruit and is the type of kid that isn’t going to selfishly just “get his” at all costs.

The current landscape of college basketball really minimizes multi-year projects.

Hard to argue that. Probably that old nostalgia in me that won’t go away easily, the part that still remembers when guys who looked so green initially ended up developing so well in a good system like ours.

Well articulated.

 

[Fly Illini Fly!]

.295 isn’t a bad FT rate either, dunno how that came about…. that’s better than Ayo, just for example

Ayo’s FT rate in 2021 was .333

 

[NarrowJ]

Ayo’s FT rate in 2021 was .333

Career .281

.281 is less than .295

Ayo as a freshman .253
Vaaks as a freshman .295

 

[Fly Illini Fly!]

Its a different offense and he will have far more talent surrounding him. He was also often playing off ball next to Sellers and Edwards too. Also, the big east whistle is very different from the Big10 so I wouldn't be surprised to see more free throw attempts just from how ticky-tack the big10 calls conference games.

Here’s a tweet from the 24-25 season, articulating this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1892251688787943664

Vaaks shot 52% from 2 which was better than Wagler(albeit on 2 less attempts per game).

We’ve done a very good job increasing 2pt percentages of our transfers:

Andrej:

47.8% 2pt at CAL | up to 58.3% at IL

Zvonimir:

59.8% 2pt at ARK | up to 83.1% at IL (which led the nation)

Boswell:

41.5% 2pt at AZ | up to 56.7% at IL (2025) | 54.0% at IL (2026)

Tre White:

51.5% 2pt at LVIlle | up to 58.7 at IL | down to 48.4% at Kansas

…..

My theory for this is that at Illinois, we have guys take less mid range shots.

46.7% of Vaaks’s 2pt shots were non-rim twos last season.

For Wagler, it was 37.9%.

For Kasparas, it was 33.1%.

For Andrej at Cal it was 39.4%. At Illinois it was 34.6%. (See above for his increase in 2pt%)

For Zvonimir at Arkansas it was 44.3%. At Illinois it was 14.1%. (See above for his increase in 2pt%)

For Boswell at Arizona it was 57.0%. At Illinois it was 20.9% (2025) and 30.4% (2026). (See above for his increases and decreases in 2pt%)

For Tre White at Louisville it was 56.3%. At Illinois it was 30.3%. At Kansas it was 36.7%. (See above for his increases and decreases in 2pt% — though yes he did shoot a higher percentage at Louisville than at Kansas, so I guess the thought isn’t totally bulletproof)

To tie this back to Vaaks, I definitely think his 2pt% will increase by quite a bit next year, because 47% of his two pointers will not be mid range shots. It just won’t be. We don’t play that way.

 

[WhereDoWeStandWithStorr?]

A free throw rate of under 30 is usually not great.

(Doesn’t mean it can’t be improved)

 

[NarrowJ]

A free throw rate of under 30 is usually not great.

(Doesn’t mean it can’t be improved)

For a guard, its really pretty good (scroll up for Ayo comp)

 

[Fly Illini Fly!]

You watch clips of him and he can clearly turn the corner and attack the basket off the pnr. He shot 3.6 free throws per game which is basically the same as Kylan and Stojakovic.

Free throws per game is useless.

Free throw rate:

Vaaks 29.5
Andrej 38.1
Kylan 41.5

A free throw rate of under 30 is usually not great.

(Doesn’t mean it can’t be improved)

That’s fair.

How I’d describe it is:

30-35 solid
35-40 very good
Anything 40+ is elite

That “elite” tier would include:

Wagler at 47.6
Kasparas at 49.6
Kofi Cockburn 53.3
Terrance Shannon 59.9
Morez Johnson 74.2 (context being he played way less minutes than those other guys; at Michigan he was 49.8)

Vaaks at 29.5 signals room for improvement (but not terrible).

 

[HoopsterMan]

Watched the skinny version of the game against UConn looking for momentum swings. Didn't realize the team only had 3 assists the entire game - that is stunningly low.

 

[wc_illini]

For a guard, its really pretty good (scroll up for Ayo comp)

It's one thing to say 29.5 isn't bad or that FTR isn't highly correlated to overall value, but it's a stretch to say it's pretty good. Here's Torvik's FT Rate vs PRPG! for scoring guards and combo guards with PRPG! above 3:

 

[Fly Illini Fly!]

Watched the skinny version of the game against UConn looking for momentum swings. Didn't realize the team only had 3 assists the entire game - that is stunningly low.

We were 240th in assist% last season so it’s not something we heavily prioritized:

….

But regardless, make a few of those WIDE OPEN threes or layups we missed, and we’d have more assists.

You can’t have an assist if the guy you’re passing to can’t make the shot. (No matter how you play)

 

[NarrowJ]

It's one thing to say 29.5 isn't bad or that FTR isn't highly correlated to overall value, but it's a stretch to say it's pretty good. Here's Torvik's FT Rate vs PRPG! for scoring guards and combo guards with PRPG! above 3:
View attachment 51185View attachment 51184

Ok, well 'isn't bad' and 'pretty good' are close enough to the same exact thing that we didn't really need a chart... but anyway, if Ayo was at .253 as a freshman (.252 as a sophomore for added reference) and Vaaks is at .295 then maybe we shouldn't be so hyper focused on it as this huge downside as it was presented initially?

EDIT: By limiting data to players with PRPG! above 3 you've artificially moved numbers. Having a PRPG! above 3 means you're measuring him against mostly elite players (Elliot Cadeau had a PRPG! of 3 last season) so of course its going to look a lot worse if you present it the way you have here.

 

[Fly Illini Fly!]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2088431761264984096

 

[HoopsterMan]

We were 240th in assist% last season so it’s not something we heavily prioritized:

View attachment 51186

….

But regardless, make a few of those WIDE OPEN threes or layups we missed, and we’d have more assists.

You can’t have an assist if the guy you’re passing to can’t make the shot. (No matter how you play)

True, although a really good passing game tends to get you some easy ones in the paint. Can't argue with it I guess given the OKP. It always feels like a risk when you over-rely on 3 pointers in the big arenas.

 

[Fly Illini Fly!]

EDIT: By limiting data to players with PRPG! above 3 you've artificially moved numbers. Having a PRPG! above 3 means you're measuring him against mostly elite players (Elliot Cadeau had a PRPG! of 3 last season) so of course its going to look a lot worse if you present it the way you have here.

Above 3 in PRPG means starter-level players. He’s just limiting the data pool to starter-level players.

Illinois had six players 3+ PRPG last season, which were essentially the six starters:

(Some games Jake started ahead of Andrej, and vice versa)

True, although a really good passing game tends to get you some easy ones in the paint. Can't argue with it I guess given the OKP. It always feels like a risk when you over-rely on 3 pointers in the big arenas.

Yes, and so did we.

We just missed them like this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/2060836141520081232

 

[NarrowJ]

Above 3 in PRPG means starter-level players. He’s just limiting the data pool to starter-level players.

Illinois had six players 3+ PRPG last season, which were essentially the six starters:

View attachment 51192

(Some games Jake started ahead of Andrej, and vice versa)

Jake Tomi Andrej David are not PG/SG/Combo G so that's about as good of a comparison as you using Morez Johnson who played PF/C

Using only Illinois' (which was a F4, mind you) players doesn't convince me he's merely including starter-level players, sorry not close... there was barely 200 players in all of CBB with a PRPG! above 3... these are mostly elite players, as I said (which tracks, given Illinois starters being above 3: again, elite players) and we honestly don't even need to litigate this as his post very clearly and explicitly states that he narrowed the data set to include only guards who had a PRPG! of 3, which moves the numbers a great deal as I had already said.

Maybe this will help everyone more than completely ignoring the fact that his freshman FT rate was higher than both freshman and sophomore Ayo's was:

Vaaks non-rim 2s rate tells me there was a lot of midrange stuff that is going to get cleaned up at Illinois. If he improves shot diet, and we see him go to the basket more and use his body/size... what do we think will happen to his FT rate?

(this discussion has somehow become a contest in pedantics, so I'm good to move on if you guys are)

 

[InDaAZ]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2088431761264984096

It’s been said, we want character, not characters.

I say:

 

[HoopsterMan]

He looks like a 6'9" coordinated young man with a sweet shot and ball handling skills, and who can get to the basket. He seems exceptional.

Wild how most of the roster looks like it has to use sun block under fluorescent lighting these days.

 

[WhereDoWeStandWithStorr?]

Vaaks 3 point percentage should also increase with a better shot diet.

 

[PepeSilvia]

Watched the skinny version of the game against UConn looking for momentum swings. Didn't realize the team only had 3 assists the entire game - that is stunningly low.

That game exposed the achilles heel of the offense when playing elite teams that have the size and athleticism to match up with Illinois.

The offense stagnated If Illinois was unable to force help defenders to come. If they could force help it created open looks and forced defenders to rotate which also left them out of rebounding position which in turn creates more open looks off offensive rebounds.

UConn did get away with being extremely physical but that is just how the NCAA tournament is called. They basically just stayed home defensively and forced Stojakovic and Wagler into a bunch of tough contested two's. Illinois did miss some bunnies that they should have made but the offense was never able to get into a rhythm or create any easy looks.

I think that Illinois will need to add some more off ball movement and sets into the offense to create some open looks if it wants to truly be an elite team that's capable of winning a national championship and beating the likes of Duke, Florida, etc. on the way to doing so. I just don't think you're going to consistently have success against those other elite teams if you're relying on converting contested 2s and off the dribble 3s.

The other hope is that Coleman adds some quickness to the roster and blow by guys and forcing defenses to help. Stojakovic can do this a bit but didn't really look to pass while attacking the basket and a lot of his game was simply finishing tough 2s over defenders.

 

[EmpoweredIllini]

Above 3 in PRPG means starter-level players. He’s just limiting the data pool to starter-level players.

Illinois had six players 3+ PRPG last season, which were essentially the six starters:

View attachment 51192

(Some games Jake started ahead of Andrej, and vice versa)

Yes, and so did we.

We just missed them like this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/2060836141520081232

so in an effort to show that it wasn’t limiting to mostly elite players, you chose elite players from an elite team to back that? hmm

 

[PleaseMakeABowlGame]

Vaaks 3 point percentage should also increase with a better shot diet.

I'd be a bit more skeptical about 3 point percentage increasing.

Here's our last 9 transfers - their 3 point percentage the season before transferring to Illinois, and their 3 point percentage the season after transferring to Illinois:

Domask: 34.8% before / 29.7% after
Gurrier: 34.7% before / 37.5% after
Harmon: 34.0% before / 30.6% after
Humrichous: 41.4% before / 34.3% after
Davis: 38.7% before / 34.4% after
Tre White: 29.9% before / 32.9% after
Boswell: 37.9% before / 24.5% after
Big Z: 37.6% before / 28.0% after
Andrej: 31.8% before / 24.4% after

So, 7 of our last 9 transfers shot a worse percentage after transferring here (at least in their first season, which will be the situation for Vaaks as well).

 

[NarrowJ]

That game exposed the achilles heel of the offense when playing elite teams that have the size and athleticism to match up with Illinois.

The offense stagnated If Illinois was unable to force help defenders to come. If they could force help it created open looks and forced defenders to rotate which also left them out of rebounding position which in turn creates more open looks off offensive rebounds.

UConn did get away with being extremely physical but that is just how the NCAA tournament is called. They basically just stayed home defensively and forced Stojakovic and Wagler into a bunch of tough contested two's. Illinois did miss some bunnies that they should have made but the offense was never able to get into a rhythm or create any easy looks.

I think that Illinois will need to add some more off ball movement and sets into the offense to create some open looks if it wants to truly be an elite team that's capable of winning a national championship and beating the likes of Duke, Florida, etc. on the way to doing so. I just don't think you're going to consistently have success against those other elite teams if you're relying on converting contested 2s and off the dribble 3s.

The other hope is that Coleman adds some quickness to the roster and blow by guys and forcing defenses to help. Stojakovic can do this a bit but didn't really look to pass while attacking the basket and a lot of his game was simply finishing tough 2s over defenders.

Would caveat by saying all offenses do not perform as well vs longer more athletic defenses. Thats not a thing that’s somehow just limited to Illinois’ elite offense.

The offense wasn’t as good as usual vs Houston either (better defense than UConn) but was good enough to win the game fairly comfortably.

I also watched that game vs UConn and the amount of shots that barely missed / rolled around the rim / rattled in and out was soul crushing in a way lol.

So, 7 of our last 9 transfers shot a worse percentage after transferring here (at least in their first season, which will be the situation for Vaaks as well).

Do you understand how miniscule a sample size of 9 guys is? Also this has been covered multiple times in depth previously and the Illinois transfer 3 point shooting hex has been disproven each time.

 

[EmeraldCityIllini]

I'd be a bit more skeptical about 3 point percentage increasing.

Here's our last 9 transfers - their 3 point percentage the season before transferring to Illinois, and their 3 point percentage the season after transferring to Illinois:

Domask: 34.8% before / 29.7% after
Gurrier: 34.7% before / 37.5% after
Harmon: 34.0% before / 30.6% after
Humrichous: 41.4% before / 34.3% after
Davis: 38.7% before / 34.4% after
Tre White: 29.9% before / 32.9% after
Boswell: 37.9% before / 24.5% after
Big Z: 37.6% before / 28.0% after
Andrej: 31.8% before / 24.4% after

So, 7 of our last 9 transfers shot a worse percentage after transferring here (at least in their first season, which will be the situation for Vaaks as well).

Is there anything you’re actually optimistic on?

 

[EmeraldCityIllini]

That game exposed the achilles heel of the offense when playing elite teams that have the size and athleticism to match up with Illinois.

The offense stagnated If Illinois was unable to force help defenders to come. If they could force help it created open looks and forced defenders to rotate which also left them out of rebounding position which in turn creates more open looks off offensive rebounds.

UConn did get away with being extremely physical but that is just how the NCAA tournament is called. They basically just stayed home defensively and forced Stojakovic and Wagler into a bunch of tough contested two's. Illinois did miss some bunnies that they should have made but the offense was never able to get into a rhythm or create any easy looks.

I think that Illinois will need to add some more off ball movement and sets into the offense to create some open looks if it wants to truly be an elite team that's capable of winning a national championship and beating the likes of Duke, Florida, etc. on the way to doing so. I just don't think you're going to consistently have success against those other elite teams if you're relying on converting contested 2s and off the dribble 3s.

The other hope is that Coleman adds some quickness to the roster and blow by guys and forcing defenses to help. Stojakovic can do this a bit but didn't really look to pass while attacking the basket and a lot of his game was simply finishing tough 2s over defenders.

I buy this the first tournament game against UCONN.

I can’t get too riled up with the looks in the final four game. Just make 3 more layups and we’re playing in a title game. That game was so cheeks - I legitimately think if that was a 7-game series we win in 6 or 5.

Houston had the size and athleticism with us and they got whalloped. We just missed so many bunnies and they hit like 4 or 5 just pure garbage, and WE still were in a 4 point game with a minute (and then Mullins moonwalked that wasn’t called.)

 

[HoopsterMan]

That game exposed the achilles heel of the offense when playing elite teams that have the size and athleticism to match up with Illinois.

The offense stagnated If Illinois was unable to force help defenders to come. If they could force help it created open looks and forced defenders to rotate which also left them out of rebounding position which in turn creates more open looks off offensive rebounds.

UConn did get away with being extremely physical but that is just how the NCAA tournament is called. They basically just stayed home defensively and forced Stojakovic and Wagler into a bunch of tough contested two's. Illinois did miss some bunnies that they should have made but the offense was never able to get into a rhythm or create any easy looks.

I think that Illinois will need to add some more off ball movement and sets into the offense to create some open looks if it wants to truly be an elite team that's capable of winning a national championship and beating the likes of Duke, Florida, etc. on the way to doing so. I just don't think you're going to consistently have success against those other elite teams if you're relying on converting contested 2s and off the dribble 3s.

The other hope is that Coleman adds some quickness to the roster and blow by guys and forcing defenses to help. Stojakovic can do this a bit but didn't really look to pass while attacking the basket and a lot of his game was simply finishing tough 2s over defenders.

Great take. While Andrej made 2's at an excellent rate, a lot of his shots are not analytically friendly and become much tougher against top teams with rim protection.

UConn has been top 5-10 nationally in Assist rate for the last 4 years. Not sure why we can't pick off a couple of their actions and employ. One of the wilder aspects of their last 4 years is that they've covered 19 of their last 20 tournament games. Think about that. Easy money on them in the tourney.