Illini Basketball 2026-2027

#578      
One could argue many of those things are part of a good algorithm ;)

Except clutchness. That hasn't been found to be a repeatable skill in the NBA, so I doubt it's really a thing in the NCAA either.
At the college level, it usually comes with a little seasoning in key spots.
 
#582      
What do you think coaches do to "game" the metrics?

For efficiency metrics, maybe they keep starters in longer during blowouts (winning or losing) since it isn't exactly clear how these metrics define garbage time. Otherwise?

For quad records, they may want to schedule the easiest opponents in a certain quad, but they can't know in advance how another team will be ranked, so an easier Quad-1 opponent could easily become a tough Quad-2 opponent, which is probably the team you most want to avoid.
A lot of it comes down to scheduling. Basically don't schedule any Q3 matchups.

Schedule power conference quad 1 and 2 games paired with quad 4 games to pad out the schedule.

Blow the quad 4 teams out to boost your efficiency matchups and Q1 or 2 losses don't really kill you.

Conferences have all started scheduling this way so by the time you get to conference play you just start trading good wins or losses with other conference opponents.

I probably could have explained it better but the B12 was basically the 1st conference to uniformly start scheduling that way and it inflated their metrics come selection Sunday. Basically once you get into conference play with a good efficiency rating than win or lose in conference play that high efficiency rating benefits the conference.
 
#583      
False equivalence. These players aren’t good because of their height, they’re good in spite of it. If the players listed had the same skills and were a few inches taller, they’d be even better. Finding tall players with guard skills is a good thing, acrually.
Then tell me why over the course of 50 years why there haven't been more Magic Johnson's? You would have thought that would have lead to a trend. Large people don't have nearly as strong ballhandling skills. As stated, it's a physics thing. People citing Luka are referring to the top 1% of NBA players as a point of comparison.
 
#584      
Then tell me why over the course of 50 years why there haven't been more Magic Johnson's? You would have thought that would have lead to a trend. Large people don't have nearly as strong ballhandling skills. As stated, it's a physics thing. People citing Luka are referring to the top 1% of NBA players as a point of comparison.
Reason #1: The subset of people in the world that tall is very small, a lot smaller than people in the 6'0" to 6'3" range. The subset of people with PG ball handling skills is also very small. The Venn diagram of those two things therefore is tiny.

Reason #2: People like you who view basketball abilities/skills as a function of size are common, even in youth basketball coaching ranks. Kids get shoehorned into specific roles at a young age and so a lot of taller kids get stuck under the basket and end up focusing on traditional "big man" roles/skills, and not guard skills like dribbling, passing, and shooting. That's why a lot of the big guards you do see are guys who had late growth spurts.
 
#585      
Then tell me why over the course of 50 years why there haven't been more Magic Johnson's? You would have thought that would have lead to a trend. Large people don't have nearly as strong ballhandling skills. As stated, it's a physics thing.
People citing Luka are referring to the top 1% of NBA players as a point of comparison.
We aren’t citing Luka as a point of comparison.

We’re citing Keaton (6”6), KJ (6”6), and Domask (6”6). None of them were point guards as you describe it; yet our teams were very successful with all three of those guys (particularly Keaton and Domask).

For 3 STRAIGHT years, we’ve proven that your template of point guard isn’t tied to having success.
 
#586      
This is fantastic.

All the "Iverson action" clips just shows the importance of a downhill driver like Stojakovic. You can exploit that at will due to his quick first step, and the strong side being wide open.

Good stuff. Easy to see the value Jake brings slowed down like that.
 
#587      
Then tell me why over the course of 50 years why there haven't been more Magic Johnson's? You would have thought that would have lead to a trend. Large people don't have nearly as strong ballhandling skills. As stated, it's a physics thing. People citing Luka are referring to the top 1% of NBA players as a point of comparison.
What you don’t realize is that the staff has actively worked to filter out the players you are referencing from our recruiting formula.

Jayden Epps is literally the last 6”3 or under, sub-200-pound guard to start games for us. (that’ll continue into next year)

The staff doesn’t want those players. They want big guards, who can score and pass.
 
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#588      
A lot of it comes down to scheduling. Basically don't schedule any Q3 matchups.

Schedule power conference quad 1 and 2 games paired with quad 4 games to pad out the schedule.

Blow the quad 4 teams out to boost your efficiency matchups and Q1 or 2 losses don't really kill you.
This WAS the formula.

But for next year, we don’t have those Q4 games. A lot of those games will be against the high-quality mid majors (who you might not be able to beat like that).

Unsure if I feel good or bad about it. 😐
 
#589      
Reason #1: The subset of people in the world that tall is very small, a lot smaller than people in the 6'0" to 6'3" range. The subset of people with PG ball handling skills is also very small. The Venn diagram of those two things therefore is tiny.

Reason #2: People like you who view basketball abilities/skills as a function of size are common, even in youth basketball coaching ranks. Kids get shoehorned into specific roles at a young age and so a lot of taller kids get stuck under the basket and end up focusing on traditional "big man" roles/skills, and not guard skills like dribbling, passing, and shooting. That's why a lot of the big guards you do see are guys who had late growth spurts.
As it comes to basketball players, there is no shortage of players in the 6'7"+ range.

Domask booty balled. Keaton came out of no where. Both years there were backcourt mates with ball skills.

We were 240th in assist to FG made last year, 285th in 2024. That is brutal. Brad needs self creators. Keaton was that, TSJ had that.

Teams like UConn go after big guards because they are a heavy action/pass offense, often top 10 in the country in this stat. That is not Brad's system. Brad's system is on the opposite side of the spectrum, it's incredibly reliant on guys creating their own points, offensive rebounding.

Last year was effectively a 2 PG backcourt. This year is a potentially a no PG backcourt. I see it as a potential challenge, seems everyone is seeing it as the next possible Magic Johnson.
 
#590      
What you don’t realize is that the staff has actively worked to filter out the players you are referencing from our recruiting formula.

Jayden Epps is literally the last 6”3 or under, sub-200-pound guard to start games for us. (that’ll continue into next year)

The staff doesn’t want those players. They want big guards, who can score and pass.
Neel Ganta mentions positional size as one of their key "4 pillars" during scouting:

18:20

 
#591      
Last year was effectively a 2 PG backcourt. This year is a potentially a no PG backcourt.

What people have pointed out is that the last 3 seasons have been 'potentially a no PG backcourt' and we ended up having the 3rd, 14th and 2nd best offenses (kenpom.com).

I see it as a potential challenge, seems everyone is seeing it as the next possible Magic Johnson.

I have seen exactly zero people say this.
 
#592      
We were 240th in assist to FG made last year, 285th in 2024. That is brutal. Brad needs self creators. Keaton was that, TSJ had that.
Vaaks is that. He was 12th in the nation on off the bounce threes, so definitely a "self-creator."
seems everyone is seeing it as the next possible Magic Johnson.
Exactly 0% of people have said this.
 
#593      
Last year was effectively a 2 PG backcourt. This year is a potentially a no PG backcourt. I see it as a potential challenge, seems everyone is seeing it as the next possible Magic Johnson.
You've been adamant that Vaaks isn't a PG because of his height.

How is Keaton all of a sudden a PG then?? He's 6 FOOT 6.
 
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#594      
What people have pointed out is that the last 3 seasons have been 'potentially a no PG backcourt' and we ended up having the 3rd, 14th and 2nd best offenses (kenpom.com).



I have seen exactly zero people say this.
Last year Keaton was the 8th most efficient offensive player in the country. Kylan was neck and neck with Mirk at 2nd best on the team. 2024, TSJ was 6th in country. Domask was 2nd on the team. All on-ball shot creators.

Net net, there are heavy expectations on the brand new backcourt for the team to be really good this year. The offense is driven by the backcourt. It's going to be a lot to expect of a a freshman and sophomore to be on-ball guys driving offense. Not saying it can't happen, but big shoes to fill.
 
#595      
Last year Keaton was the 8th most efficient offensive player in the country. Kylan was neck and neck with Mirk at 2nd best on the team. 2024, TSJ was 6th in country. Domask was 2nd on the team. All on-ball shot creators.

Net net, there are heavy expectations on the brand new backcourt for the team to be really good this year. The offense is driven by the backcourt. It's going to be a lot to expect of a a freshman and sophomore to be on-ball guys driving offense. Not saying it can't happen, but big shoes to fill.

Big shoes to fill every year, provided you are a successful program and have great players moving on to the NBA every season. Comes with that territory. Our ballhandlers/on-ball guys are younger by class but not by age or experience.

Vaaks and Mirkovic both had professional experience prior to joining college teams, which one could argue is pretty darned good experience to have and likely on par with college. Mirkovic now has 2 years professional experience with SC Derby and a full college season under his belt. Vaaks played for teams like Viimsi and BC Kalev before enrolling at Providence as a 20 year old freshman.

Quentin Coleman is a 5 star freshman which for us wanting one of these for the last 20 years, would seem odd to wish it away now that we have it. I doubt he is the primary on-ball guy anyhow.

Andrej is going to be efficient with ISO possessions as well, so there's also that.
 
#596      
As it comes to basketball players, there is no shortage of players in the 6'7"+ range.
Imagine quoting a post and not actually addressing the points made in it.

There are not that many 6'7" people on the planet. There are way more 6'0" people. Obviously someone who is 6'0" without guard skills will not make it in basketball past a certain point. If 1% of people who are 6'0" have guard skills sufficient to play PG at an NCAA school, that's still plenty of 6'0" NCAA guards. If 1% of 6'7" people have NCAA PG skills, that's a much much smaller group of people.

Now, with 6'7" people, because you have size, you don't need guard skills to make it in basketball. So yes, you see plenty of 6'7" players without guard skills. That doesn't mean the height caused the lack of guard skills. It means the height allowed the player to succeed in basketball despite a lack of guard skills. Very important distinction.

And that's before you even get into the sorting that happens in youth basketball that prevents many taller kids from developing guard skills, which you did not address.
 
#597      
Imagine quoting a post and not actually addressing the points made in it.

There are not that many 6'7" people on the planet. There are way more 6'0" people. Obviously someone who is 6'0" without guard skills will not make it in basketball past a certain point. If 1% of people who are 6'0" have guard skills sufficient to play PG at an NCAA school, that's still plenty of 6'0" NCAA guards. If 1% of 6'7" people have NCAA PG skills, that's a much much smaller group of people.

Now, with 6'7" people, because you have size, you don't need guard skills to make it in basketball. So yes, you see plenty of 6'7" players without guard skills. That doesn't mean the height caused the lack of guard skills. It means the height allowed the player to succeed in basketball despite a lack of guard skills. Very important distinction.

And that's before you even get into the sorting that happens in youth basketball that prevents many taller kids from developing guard skills, which you did not address.
There is no shortage of guys that tall, if the 6'8" PG was such a novelty. Instead, they are trained to play the 3 or 4. Go look at your average college MB bench, NBA benches. They're there, and trained to play positions more aligned with physical traits. It's not a mystery that the "handle" works much better with a body profile, for reasons I've already stated. Have you seen a center dribble down a basketball court?

None of this is news. Based on theory here, we should be seeing 6'8" PGs littered across the sport since Magic. He's an outlier, Luka's an outlier because it's really hard to have that kind of handle at that height. We'll see - I see it as more of an experiment, could work fabulously, may not.
Big shoes to fill every year, provided you are a successful program and have great players moving on to the NBA every season. Comes with that territory. Our ballhandlers/on-ball guys are younger by class but not by age or experience.

Vaaks and Mirkovic both had professional experience prior to joining college teams, which one could argue is pretty darned good experience to have and likely on par with college. Mirkovic now has 2 years professional experience with SC Derby and a full college season under his belt. Vaaks played for teams like Viimsi and BC Kalev before enrolling at Providence as a 20 year old freshman.

Quentin Coleman is a 5 star freshman which for us wanting one of these for the last 20 years, would seem odd to wish it away now that we have it. I doubt he is the primary on-ball guy anyhow.

Andrej is going to be efficient with ISO possessions as well, so there's also that.
True. Not wishing away 5*s obviously, simply that a brand new backcourt is a fickle play to rebuild in this system, especially when you are operating outside of the traditional sense.
 
#598      
There is no shortage of guys that tall, if the 6'8" PG was such a novelty. Instead, they are trained to play the 3 or 4. Go look at your average college MB bench, NBA benches. They're there, and trained to play positions more aligned with physical traits. It's not a mystery that the "handle" works much better with a body profile, for reasons I've already stated. Have you seen a center dribble down a basketball court?

None of this is news. Based on theory here, we should be seeing 6'8" PGs littered across the sport since Magic. He's an outlier, Luka's an outlier because it's really hard to have that kind of handle at that height. We'll see - I see it as more of an experiment, could work fabulously, may not.

I don't think anyone has argued that jumbo PGs are the norm, but they are a thing that exists. I don't think what's being argued is that 6'8" PGs should be littered across the sport.

Josh Giddey 6'8" is yet another name that I'm unsure has surfaced yet.

Maybe I misunderstood the crux of the discussion: Are we saying PGs above 6'3" don't exist at all or that its just uncommon (but still not "bad" or "suboptimal")?
 
#599      
Last year Keaton was the 8th most efficient offensive player in the country. Kylan was neck and neck with Mirk at 2nd best on the team. 2024, TSJ was 6th in country. Domask was 2nd on the team. All on-ball shot creators.
Vaaks is also an "on-ball shot creator." (See: 12th in the nation in pull-up threes/game; for context, Keaton was 15th).
Net net, there are heavy expectations on the brand new backcourt for the team to be really good this year. The offense is driven by the backcourt. It's going to be a lot to expect of a a freshman and sophomore to be on-ball guys driving offense. Not saying it can't happen, but big shoes to fill.
Our freshman is a 5 star and heavily projected as a first round pick.

The "Sophomore" here is actually older than Kylan was last season.
 
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