I agree. It will be tough. Duke doesn't lose home games.
Illini Basketball 2026-2027
Joel Goodson
- it's all ball bearings, nowadays
math!
Splits from last season:
33.5% of shots were at the rim
16.7% of shots were mid range
49.7% of shots were threes
Its because people watch 3 minute hype/practice highlights and tell themselves he's going to slot right into where Cam Boozer left off. The Duke coaching staff, specifically associate head coach Emanual Dildy, has stated there have been a ton of ups and downs for JBB this summer and those level of expectations for him are misguided as he is a full year younger and not as mature.
Duke's frontcourt is Ngongba, a couple of raw but extremely talented freshmen and a guy who averaged 10 & 6 in the Horizon league, which is why it got ranked where you see it in the graphic. JBB will show flashes in practice videos but is a year away from being your Cam Boozer level player.
The advanced metrics ratings don't care how you stop an opponent from scoring, just that you stop them at a higher rate than their other opponents this year, it's simply points scored per possession you allowed your opponent vs. what they scored pp on other opponents, normalized to 100 possessions per game (to take tempo out of the equation) so it's weighted toward your strength of opponent not a pure ppp allowed.
Turnovers are powerful given they stop an opponent from even taking a shot on that possession, so teams high in turnovers created do have an advantage there, where as our philosophy of not forcing turnovers but force them into tough shots and don't foul is effective but it essentially lets the other team get a shot off every possession given how low we are in forcing turnovers. My sense is we will never be a top 5 defense if we aren't blocking shots at a high rate or forcing turnovers at a high rate which both equate to a 0 possession, but we can be a top 15 defense by defensive rebounding, not fouling nor allowing shots at the rim which are high %
It's also a function of our personnel, we haven't had the ultra quick guards that can get a lot of steals without fouling, so the defensive philosophy takes advantage of us being tall and a good rebounding team, which makes a lot of sense. What we did in the tournament last year hopefully carries over. I think Cam found his formula that works during the tournament, so getting everyone to buy in and being good and throwing in different looks, including zone, I think will be key for us - not being as predictable given we're intentionally not being disruptive to other offenses
Kylan was a good chunk of the mid range so I would expect that stat to only improve this year. Andrej is the only one that really takes them on a consistent basis on this team and he's good at them, so not a concern at all
RichardKeenesCousin
Richard Keene's Cousin
Had to do that for a Paul McCartney concert in Nashville last year. I only bring it up because I wanted to brag about it. I think it works for concerts or comedy shows, but not so much for basketball.
You don't necessarily need a high TO% or Steal% in advanced metrics to have a great defense. Michigan was ranked 272 and 317 in KP respectively in these two stats.
Michigan actually provided the blueprint (albeit very hard to replicate) for how to have an elite defense with a low turnover rate. If you look at our defensive stats side by side with theirs, areas where we were good defensively, they were great. Examples include:
- Effective FG%: Illinois ranked 26, Michigan ranked 1
- 3P%: Illinois ranked 37, Michigan ranked 18
- 2P%: Illinois ranked 39, Michigan ranked 2
- Block%: Illinois ranked 25, Michigan ranked 3
- Average 2PA Dist: Illinois ranked 10, Michigan ranked 4
- ALSO NOTE:
- Turnover %: Illinois ranked 365, Michigan ranked 272
- Steal %: Illinois ranked 365, Michigan ranked 317
RabidDawgClassic
- Los Angeles, CA
You do see that everywhere, even at Duke and especially in the student sections. But it certainly is a distraction. Just this week I’ve watched a dozen or so videos from different angles of the final Iowa/Michigan play. Those were people who, in my opinion, missed the raw emotion of the moment because they were busy viewing it on a tiny hand held screen.
No one is suggesting he is Cam Boozer, who was the most efficient player in metrics history and NPOY. If he was, Duke should be in runaway first place as Junior Ngongba is being projected to be the 2nd most efficient player in the country. When you couple Ngongba with who many project the 2028 first pick, a legit 7footer with perimeter skills, along with a 6'11" backup who was the 4th rated 5*, that's pretty good.
I wouldn't underestimate Scharnowski.
They then have a layer behind those two with a Canadien 7 footer named Meyer and a sophomore high 4* named Wilkins. It's a sea of riches.
And you're telling me Krivas and Holmes at AZ are a better frontcourt?
Dang kids with their phones! When I was their age a phone at a game would have been as useless as a toaster. They are missing life because they are looking at a 2" screen showing what someone else is doing. The crap on the screen will still be there in a couple of hours. Raise your heads and look around!
Dan
Admin
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One quibble I'd make is that the difference in TO% between Michigan and Illinois was the same as the difference between Michigan and the #70 team. So while I agree we may not have to be above average in TO%, being as low as we were was tough to compensate for elsewhere.
Nobody is underestimating Scharnowski here, I stated he's a guy who averaged 10 & 6 in the Horizon league. That isn't even an opinion, but merely a citation of his production and at what level.
Arizona's frontcourt is not better if you think it's just Krivas and Holmes. They have Kharchenkov and Godfrey as well. That's 2 players returning from a F4 team and another player coming from a 24-11 tournament team in which he was their best player and leading scorer. That is a wealth of tested depth in comparison to Duke.
He was not. Kylan took 17.8% of his shots from mid range, which was only 4th amongst our eight rotation players.
Andrej took the most mid range, followed by Mirk, followed by Keaton, and then Boswell.
We beat Duke at home! (once...)
Miami with Reaneau back is going to be really interesting & a sneaky high potential team.
Yea I think they don't let the student section buy beer, which is absurd. They should not only be allowed to buy beer (of age), those beers should be $1
this is what is confusing. to me ngongba will start at 5 and sarr at 3. is Cam Williams their 3.
jokes aside I do think Duke having to mix and match with such a deep team but not really having a replacement for the boozer could cause some issues. I personally think ngongba and sarr are great defensively but not good on offense. and if cayden starts then that's really 3 not great offensive players. I personally think Duke will be clearly the best defensive team but only ok on offense.. maybe jbb is just that good and fixes it out rippey is just a playmaking machine.
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Separate NIL fund just for covering a round of beer for (those of age in) the student section. Make it a live donation too, so as viewers on TV see the students mellowing out, they can inject funding into making the place hostile.
(Fully sarcastic)
3 of the better CBB voices