Illini Basketball 2026-2027
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I don’t know if MSU has eaten our lunch. Last year we led most of the game and would have won if we could have secured a defensive rebound. 2 years ago in East Lansing was the epic KJ screw job (aided by Izzo) and then in Champaign we were a shell of ourselves with injuries/illnesses.
The defense last year registered quite well in overall efficiency when you consider how poorly rated they were the previous two years. It's not a defense designed to disrupt or generate offense, it's a defense designed to do some basic things very well allowing the offense to outscore. We will not a win a game with our defense.
I'm honing in on the UConn game as a barometer to see if we can figure that scheme out and/or Brad has any adjustments ready. 0-3 w/2 tourney exits and 3 lowest scoring games in last 3 years really makes me want to win that one. We'll have already played TT & Duke at that point, they'll have played Ohio St, @Zona, Michigan and Duke. I'm guessing neither comes without a loss, but not matter. They are playing a guantlet this year, Good God.
We had MSU beat on the road last year.
I wouldn't really quibble with anything else in your post, but the S16 and E8 games were absolutely won with defense. Illinois scored an average of 68 points in those two games, yet won them by 10 and 12 points via holding both opponents under 60 points and 40% shooting (Houston .344, Iowa .383).
The important thing he points out, is that a team’s 3 point % defense is way more tied to their 2 point % defense than we all realize.Insightful Kenpom article:
KenPom: Shooting and defending the 3 is random business (i.e., relax! It's early)
Looking back at the last three seasons collectively, early 3-point shooting defense may not be inconsequential, but it’s close to it.www.nytimes.com
(it's free)
The stereotypical analysis we hear all the time is: “made 3 pointer = not a good contest” OR “missed 3 pointer = good contest.” It’s good for making a simplistic judgement, but the truth is that 3 point percentage varies astronomically from game to game, oftentimes at inexplicable measures. It’s almost uncontrollable.
BUT, over an entire season: when a team’s 2 point % defense and rim protection is good, their 3 point % defense is likely to be good as well because teams are forced to take bad 3 point shots, because they aren’t able to get to the basket.
This correlation is fairly well defined on this graph: every Division 1 team’s 2 point % defense on the x axis. And with their 3 point % defense on the y axis.
Good 2 point defense, oftentimes coincides with good 3 point defense.
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I may be misinterpreting your thoughts, but I'd say it the other way around: we were great at a few things on defense, but those things don't tell the full story (the efficiency metrics do, though of course season averages don't predict how you match up against a particular team).
The question for me is whether we're constrained by our personnel to be great at the things we're great at and not as good at the other things, or could changes to our approach/preparation make us better overall?
The fact that you mentioned 3 games should be all the answer we need.
Where is the latest video of practice? I'm hungry for some action!!
Yeah all good points. Maybe there's a better phrase I could've used. But in terms of being at the top of the B1G, I suppose MSU feels like a symbolic over-the-hump win since we've lost 4 straight to them.
It would be nice to end all of our current 3+ losing streaks this year, including MSU, UConn, and Wisconsin.
There are way more than 6 better student sections than the Orange Krush.
Yes we have a 3 or 4 game losing streak or whatever it is to MSU, and I don’t like it. But with the exception of the 2025 game at State Farm where we were a shell of ourselves (and even in that game think we had a double digit early lead), they’ve all been close games and we’ve had a little bit of bad luck/flukiness/Izzo deciding he didn’t want our best player to play so had his guys make a concerted effort to jump into KJ and the refs going “oh you’re trying to get KJ off the floor with foul trouble? Cool!”/Izzo’s best player who has a reputation for dirty plays just made another dirty play but we are going to look the other way cuz Izzo! type of things happen.
We’ve lost to them yes, but I think the implication with the “eat our lunch” comment is that they’ve dominated the match up lately which isn’t the case.
sacraig
- The desert
I feel like the current OK is really riding the reputation it earned in the pre-Groce years and has largely abandoned since.
This is largely an opinion informed by random anecdotes on here from people who have been present, because I haven't been able to go to a game in 15 years. To be fair.
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Yes sorry semantics but point I was trying to make is that the B1G is likely going to be a 1/2 race between us and MSU, it would be nice to get a win against them this year. Call it what you want to call it but a 4-game losing streak is a 4-game losing streak.
I just want to be able to use this meme before the game against MSU on February 5th for God's sake
RabidDawgClassic
- Los Angeles, CA
Is it possible we downgrade the Krush because we're so close to it? I'm guessing there are a lot of fans of other teams that would put the Krush much higher.
Isn't KenPom's defensive rating essentially pts allowed vs. points expected for that team? I thought it was entirely independent of the methods used.
sacraig
- The desert
100% yes. Probably nearly 100% chance this is a factor. Also likely a factor: as I get older, I feel the need to criticize the younguns for being lame compared to me and my compatriots!
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I think the problem with the Krush is the utter lack of passion for games that are "not as exciting." For example, the last two big games I have attended in Champaign, they were relatively awesome (Arizona in 2021-22 and MSU in 2024-25). However, if you are ever bored and flipping channels at night during the season, the difference is Krush will fall down to a pretty pathetic level for, say, a Tuesday night home game vs. Minnesota. Meanwhile, watch a weeknight game where Purdue hosts Northwestern, Duke hosts Boston College, Kansas hosts Oklahoma State, Gonzaga hosts anyone besides St. Mary's, etc., and you will see that for how good it CAN be, the Krush's floor is just WAY too low. I don't care if we are playing a D3 school ... SFC should never sound like you can hear a pin drop given how good our program has been. I mean, when I was a kid I remember the crowd getting LOUDER when we would demolish an inferior opponent as expected, not be bored because it isn't a surprise!
I'm eager to see if Krush can improve on this for this upcoming season. My memory is a little hazy, but I remember this rough timeline eyeballing the home games on last year's schedule:
Before I show this compressed timeline, I would like to say that I distinctly remember our January 8 home game vs. Rutgers being the worst atmosphere I've ever seen for a Big Ten home game, including all of the Groce years. To be clear, students were NOT back ... but I think it really lit the flame again for people rightfully complaining about our home court advantage.
1) On January 24, we shock #4 Purdue in West Lafayette ... this is the moment we realized we REALLY might have it goin' this year. So, keeping that in mind, I think people expected a bit more frenzy when returning to SFC.
2) The January 29 home game vs. Washington seems like a lame environment, but there are plenty of factors (day of the week, nature of the game, opponent, etc.) that could be used as excuses.
3) Our Illini pick up a MASSIVE win at #5 Nebraska on February 1. However, the next home game vs. Northwestern on February 4 has another pretty lame atmosphere. People largely blame it on the game not being competitive at all. The Illini then lose a really tough OT game in East Lansing to snap a 12-game winning streak.
4) The February 10 loss to Wisconsin is the pivotal point and the ABSOLUTE floor for the Krush and SFC, IMO. There were so many moments late in the second half and in OT when we literally NEEDED the crowd to carry us, and it was just so muted. You can say what you want about non-student fans and what should be expected of them, but the students are LITERALLY there to impact our gameday environment. Others would pay the DIA a hell of a lot more money for those seats if both groups are just going to cheer like they're bored. The criticism at this point extended WAY beyond just niche message boards, and there was quite a bit of chatter on social media about how the Krush put in a pretty pathetic performance. IIRC, some posters here even insinuated that Krush leadership was very aware of it, and they were looking to change things.
5) The February 15 home game vs. Indiana represented a massive improvement, and the students were louder and rowdier than they had been all year. I remember a lot of praise for the improvement in the postgame thread.
6) After a split in LA, the Illini returned home for a February 27 top 10 matchup with Michigan, and the SFC genuinely got back to its glory days of home court advantage, IMO. Until Michigan eventually ran away with it, the Krush and the fans in general were just awesome.
7) I cannot remember what the crowd was like for the March 3 senior night vs. Oregon, but I guarantee you it was better than earlier in the season.
P.S. I think much of the criticism also stemmed from just how rowdy Illini contingents have been in NON-home arenas over the last several years. Like, we should reasonably expect the House of 'Paign to have our most passionate and loudest fans. However, Illini crowds from Braggin' Rights to Iowa City to Vegas (2022-23) to Evanston to every single NCAA Tournament city and finally (and ESPECIALLY) to the United Center last year have just brought A+ efforts. So we know our fans aren't just like programmed not to be rowdy, and we have literal evidence that Champaign CAN be (quite easily) the best crowd of any of those places ... it just slipped for a while, and I am hoping it is back!
TL; DR
The Krush was pretty pitiful from when they got back from Christmas Break all the way through totally bottoming out in a frankly embarrassing showing for the OT loss to Wisconsin. That loss led to surprisingly widespread criticism on social media, and the next home game (Indiana) had a WAY better atmosphere, followed by a truly electric atmosphere for the Michigan game. So, I am cautiously optimistic that the complete dud of an atmosphere vs. Wisconsin and the ensuing backlash might have been a positive turning point.
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Someone had the idea of making "can't bring a phone" a criterion for sitting in Krush. Is there any chance of that getting pushed through?
Agreed, I think the traveling contingent of fans you get at neutral-site cities (Chicago, Nashville, Braggin' Rights, etc.) are particularly rowdy because of the novelty of being able to see a game in person. I would imagine a lot of the fans that show up for those games are probably showing up because the location is closer/easier to get to than Champaign and it could be one of a few games they get to see in person for the season. If I'm buying tickets, a hotel, and traveling there, you know I'm going to be getting rowdy for it.
In fairness to the Krush, I believe that section of the arena makes up around 7.7% of the arena as a whole. If they're trying to get into it but the rest of the stadium is seated and stone-faced, the student section noise only goes so far. This is anecdotal as I've only been to probably 25% of the home games over the past 2 years, but the collective stadium seems pretty sleepy in that January stretch on a Tuesday night... it almost seems like everyone collectively says "yeah, it's cold out, I have to work tomorrow, we're probably going to win this one, not worth losing my voice over"
I think the true fix for it is the collective self-governance in the stadium as a whole and resetting the standard to "if you're here, you're loud", like you have at the other great venues across the nation.
Don't you need a phone for your ticket?
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