Well, Maryland is worse than Michigan State.
Illini Football 2026
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Thank you for so aptly demonstrating what I'm talking about.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Honestly, that decision wasn’t even that bad.
Henry took defenses that were in the 60s in talent and finished in the 40s in efficiency. It ran a system that was complimentary to the offense (lowered the total possessions per game) and gave us 19 wins in two years. Could recruiting have been better? Sure, and it had started getting better.
In terms of maintaining a defense like 2022, well, no defense coordinator would’ve done that, not even Ryan Walters.
That defense ended the year ranked #6 in defensive efficiency according to FPI and Walters’ best defense since finished at #19. His current defense is ranked #50 which is lower than Aaron Henry’s defense finished last year on a team that’s ranked about 40 spots higher in the talent composite.
A defense in the 40s this year would give us 6-8 wins and a 3rd straight bowl.
No, the big mistake happened this offseason. If you’re going to fire your DC, which I didn’t necessarily agree with at the time, but if you’re going to do it, you need to do it immediately after the season so you can replace him with the right guy and bring in the right talent from the portal.
The good news is:
In the current landscape of college football, you’re one offseason away from a completely rebuilt team. So we’ll see what happens this year.
I’m not sure your I understand your point. People are not saying Duke and Purdue are more talented than us. But that doesn’t correct the problem and the reality. We have bottom 5 talent out of the 34 teams in the BT and SEC. If we played Purdue, Maryland, Rutgers, MSU 100 times our record will be around .500.
If we play NW, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nebraska, Washington all below average to average BT teams we probably go 0-5.
We have a talent and NIL problem.
If you are saying we have other problems too then I agree (and I think everyone else does to).
Does Doeren do the 3-3-5 or would Bret switch away the D yet again... I have the impression he wants to stay 3-3-5 but have some twists and tweaks of his own. Also, I'm positive that we have to step up the NIL money or we will find ourselves sliding back down regardless of how good I think coach B is and has been for this program...
My concern isn’t with the W-L record or even where it might lead for the season. I was disturbed by the way we looked as we lost to Purdue. Every aspect of our game just “looked bad”, if that makes any sense. Can you think of anything we did well? On offense, defense, special teams, play calling, execution, readiness? It was tough to watch after a while.
Nope. No lack of appreciation from me for what BB has done since coming here. And I've said so numerous times. But come on, man. You can't have watched the defense the last two seasons prior to this one and thought they were a well coached group with superior schemes and athletes. Everybody knew two years ago that it was not working, but BB was too slow to cut the cord with his guy. Admirable, but not wise in the college football world.
I wont answer for him, but I would say that we have enough talent to win those games. The bigger issue was the offseason. The defensive hires, the transfers (outside of Houser, who is really good), etc. put this program in shambles. That's on BB. It now feels like the narrative is trying to be spun that ALL of the issues are NIL. It's a factor, no doubt, but it's not the main reason we lost those two games.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Exactly.
Lack of premier NIL does not cause communication issues where we only have 9 players on the field. The team wasn't prepared to tackle in week 1 and it translated through week 5 now. More NIL would help, but it is not why we are 2-3 right now. Coach B needs to take responsibility for what is happening and correct it moving forward.
It is absolutely the main reason. If we had average BT talent we would have won. And I’ll prove it’s the number reason. If our NIL doesn’t improve, we will be a bottom 5 BT team.
To change your argument, CAN we beat Purdue with our talent/NIL? Absolutely. But you are splitting hairs between going 2-7 and 3-6 in the BT. The ONLY way for us to become an average BT team is by an increase in NIL.
No Doeren runs primarily a 4-2-5 at NC State that has a hybrid edge LB that is an "Elephant or Jack" LB. He ran a more traditional 3-4 when he was with Bielema at Wisconsin. Think the old Wisconsin 3-4 that Doeren and Leonard were amazing at. Honestly if we hire Doeren it will be a return to what we did under Walters/Ahem (more akin to Walters if I had to pick) and a reinvestment in NIL to the Defensive side.
Funnily enough NC State ran the 3-3-5 before Doeren got to NC State so he knows how to blend and transition to what he wants from that system.
Exactly, I don't get that excuse. It's coaching and talent evaluation. We need to essentially follow the Iowa and Wisconsin model. Run your system, play complementary football and find the right talent (not the most expensive or flashiest). If we can consistently win 8 or 9 a year with an occasional great year every 4-5 I would be ecstatic.
Our scouting and recruitment department needs to be overhauled. 3-3-5 was a panic based mistake because Partridge backed out on us and we couldn't make anything public because we were looking for an AHen exit. I like Bart and when I watch him speak he says all the right things, but something isn't hitting home with the players. We either need to add another voice to the room or Bart needs to go (I don't think Bart and Lunney complement each other and I'll choose Barry as long as I can).
They absolutely are, in the sense that they're coming from the same pool of boosters who are deciding to which sport how much of their money is going. It's allocation of a finite resource.
Indiana basketball was #45 in Kenpom last season. If you look at the Athletic's estimates of P4 football NIL spend, Kentucky and UNC's rosters cost about the same as ours and Duke spends about half what we spend. And lets be real, none of those 3 programs is going to make the CFP. The only true exception you listed is Michigan, who has always had more resources than us and 99% of other schools, and who despite all their NIL dollars, has been shut out of the CFP (and will be again this year) since Harbaugh left.
I actually do think there's a way to Moneyball a program into a situation where your results outperform your spend. Cignetti's first year at IU is one instance - doubt they were one of the more expensive rosters that year.
Bielema tried to find a Moneyball solution this season with the whole Hauck/3-3-5 thing. It didn't work. But at least it shows he knows the assignment. Only time will tell if he can figure it out. I do think the allocation of NIL dollars needs to be optimized. Depending on who you believe Northwestern either spent around the same as us on it's roster (according to the Athletic) or a lot less (according to our insiders). Either way, they apparently spent it better, as their team looks much better than us so far. Which means winning is not as simple as "you get what you pay for."
And does anyone have any ideas what our budget is for a new defensive staff?
Whitman is going to pay a D Coordinator at least 2million or more. Not easy to find. I believe the talent is in the roster, but they are not positioned well.
Cignetti took like 25 guys from JMU with him and just about EVERYTHING went right for them
including no significant injuries .
thats a 1000-1 shot imo
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
We won 10 games two years ago!
Can I sit here with a straight face and tell you that our passivity and predictability on 3rd downs in 2025 didn't drive me insane? Of course not.
But the fantasy land that has grown up around Henry among certain elements here is so flamboyantly fictional it's hard to even engage with.
The culture walked out of the building at the end of last year, it's really that simple.
Losing a bunch of seniors who were really good players has a lot to do with that of course, but it can't be overemphasized how much all three phases complemented each other philosophically, controlling and slowing down games and making them a contest of situational execution.
The problem with Aaron Henry's departure, with the benefit of hindsight, was not timing or emotional resolution for his detractors, it's that it happened at all.
Curbelo Fanboy
BERTBALL IS LIFE
TBH there is probably some "regression to the mean" that is catching up with us this year. We were SO good the last 2 years in close games. Rutgers, Purdue, South Carolina, USC, Kansas in 2024 & Tenn in bowl game last year were all tight games where we did the right things late to pull them out. Some measure of that is a credit to Bret's attention to detail & that should not be dismissed. He's a damn good situational in game coach. But some measure of winning a bunch of close games is kind of just luck. We have been on the other side of that luck twice this year.
It's not all luck of course. We have a clear talent deficiency on the defensive side of the ball. That coupled with a scheme change makes our talent deficiency look even worse I imagine. I'm not completely sold that a 3-3-5 concept is a disaster. We frankly don't have the talent to be very good in any scheme. One of the universal truths of football is that if your d line can't get consistent pressure on the QB everything from there will be a trade off to mask that deficiency. You either blitz like crazy or lay back in a bend but don't break scheme to make the offense sustain long drives & hope for unforced errors. 3-3-5 is just another concept to try to mask that shortcoming. There are teams that run that kind of scheme successfully but I imagine if you dig in they have the DL horses to pull of any scheme.
It's not all luck of course. We have a clear talent deficiency on the defensive side of the ball. That coupled with a scheme change makes our talent deficiency look even worse I imagine. I'm not completely sold that a 3-3-5 concept is a disaster. We frankly don't have the talent to be very good in any scheme. One of the universal truths of football is that if your d line can't get consistent pressure on the QB everything from there will be a trade off to mask that deficiency. You either blitz like crazy or lay back in a bend but don't break scheme to make the offense sustain long drives & hope for unforced errors. 3-3-5 is just another concept to try to mask that shortcoming. There are teams that run that kind of scheme successfully but I imagine if you dig in they have the DL horses to pull of any scheme.
RabidDawgClassic
- Los Angeles, CA
I think that’s a problem at every program. How many championship-caliber teams are there in both sports. At first glance you might say Michigan, but it appears they may have shortchanged their beloved football program for a natty in hoops.
BYU and Texas Tech are tossing mega dollars at both sports, but has it truly paid off in both sports yet? Bama isn’t shortchanging football and that will likely be at the eventual sacrifice of hoops.
Bottom line… football or basketball? Make a choice, Sophie!
Ok, but how do you explain the sudden depths of our talent pool on the defensive side? If Henry is not responsible for that then the blame lies directly with BB and Josh for not having the ability to go out and pay superior athletes,no? I really do not know. Like most I think, I am searching for the answers to how we all of a sudden have no talent after winning 10 and 9 games.
I still maintain that Ahen was way over his head in that position and it was, and continues to be, apparent that was the case IMO. Either way, it's on BB to identify a competent replacement and he has not been able to do that consistently on the defensive side of the ball since Walters left.
Yes, and those guys were undervalued and he capitalized on it. They may have taken a little less to go with him, but if OSU had offered them double, Cig wasn't getting them.
To put it into economic parlance, there are likely tons of market inefficiencies out there that can be capitalized on. This season we bet on D-line being not as important as the market valued it, and thought we could make up for it with scheme. It didn't work out. I think there's a possibility the opposite is true - that D-line (and O-line too) is with spending on and that lower cost skill positions can yield outsized results if we're winning the battle on the lines. Or maybe it's as simple as better player evaluations leading to better results across the board. I think it's clear that, while we aren't spending as much as the top tier teams, we also aren't performing as well (this season) as many teams in our tier.
Schiano? Western Michigan has a good defense, might be worth looking into