Illini Basketball 2026-2027

#176      
NarrowJ
HoopsterMan said:
That team lost it's entire starting lineup to the draft off two championships.

There is no way Iowa St, Alabama, Houston, Kansas will. I'm not sure any of these teams will even show up in the preseason top 15.

I'm still not sure who are on some of these rosters. Lipsey is back?
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I agree that it’s weird to have them that low, I have them 4th:


But these preseason rankings rarely come to fruition (hence why a team like 24-25 UConn can implode and go from #3 to unranked by season end). These preseason rankings are going to be all sorts of discombobulated by mid-December, let alone by March/April.

But maybe I need to take a page out of old KP’s book; his rankings are so crazy they went absolutely viral on SM. 😂
 
#177      
RollChief
3 weeks from today until the season officially starts!

Monday 11/2 is going to be a great day for college hoops. I think I'm going to end up watching 6 hours straight of college basketball:
- 5 PM: Florida vs. Miami
- 7 PM: Illinois vs. FDU
- 9 PM: Arizona vs. UCLA

We've also got Purdue vs. Gonzaga and Ohio St. vs. BYU.
 
#178      
HoopsterMan
NarrowJ said:
I agree that it’s weird to have them that low, I have them 4th:


But these preseason rankings rarely come to fruition (hence why a team like 24-25 UConn can implode and go from #3 to unranked by season end). These preseason rankings are going to be all sorts of discombobulated by mid-December, let alone by March/April.

But maybe I need to take a page out of old KP’s book; his rankings are so crazy they went absolutely viral on SM. 😂
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Your list makes a lot more sense! Michigan State a little low, but otherwise about where I'd stack em.
 
#179      
Homecoming 2019
NarrowJ said:
I agree that it’s weird to have them that low, I have them 4th:


But these preseason rankings rarely come to fruition (hence why a team like 24-25 UConn can implode and go from #3 to unranked by season end). These preseason rankings are going to be all sorts of discombobulated by mid-December, let alone by March/April.

But maybe I need to take a page out of old KP’s book; his rankings are so crazy they went absolutely viral on SM. 😂
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Interested why you'd have Michigan so high losing their coach and 3 - 1st round picks. I'd have them borderline top 25
 
#180      
RollChief
If our non-conference opponents' final KenPom rankings shake out in a similar place as their preseason rankings, then this should be the second-strongest SOS in the Underwood era, if you simply take the average ranks of our non-conference opponents. See the average ranks below for those interested:

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There are some sneakily interesting games in 128 Penn, 167 Sam Houston St., 205 Winthrop, 122 Western Kentucky, and 124 Seattle.
 
#181      
NarrowJ
Homecoming 2019 said:
Interested why you'd have Michigan so high losing their coach and 3 - 1st round picks. I'd have them borderline top 25
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Most have them pretty high, seems my model is indeed higher on them than mostly everyone else. I have Boynton as having prior experience as a head coach (though his track record wasn't great by any stretch) so they don't get penalized too much there, and there is a level of continuity there with 3 major backcourt pieces returning in Cadeau, McKenney and Gayle.

Michigan rankings across the industry:

Torvik #10
Fox Sports #15
CBS #16
Miya #16
KP #28

Click on Michigan from the 26-27 projections/rankings page and you can see their roster outlook.

I have Roddy Gayle Jr added to their returning players group, which I'm not sure KP, Torvik or Miya updates things as frequently as I do. Torvik still has McCoy as a top contributor and Gayle not listed on the roster at all. Miya doesn't even have a 26-27 team page; if you click on Michigan it takes you to last season's team page. KenPom has team pages behind a paywall, so not able to see how they're handling Michigan. That said, he did not play in their recent exhibition game so perhaps there is something stirring behind the scenes with his eligibility; something to keep an eye on.

TLDR: Pretty much everyone had Michigan in their top 10 prior to McCoy going down, and replacing him with a 5th year senior shouldn't move the needle as much as it seemingly has for everyone else.
 
#182      
Homecoming 2019
NarrowJ said:
Most have them pretty high, seems my model is indeed higher on them than mostly everyone else. I have Boynton as having prior experience as a head coach (though his track record wasn't great by any stretch) so they don't get penalized too much there, and there is a level of continuity there with 3 major backcourt pieces returning in Cadeau, McKenney and Gayle.

Michigan rankings across the industry:

Torvik #10
Fox Sports #15
CBS #16
Miya #16
KP #28

Click on Michigan from the 26-27 projections/rankings page and you can see their roster outlook.

I have Roddy Gayle Jr added to their returning players group, which I'm not sure KP, Torvik or Miya updates things as frequently as I do. Torvik still has McCoy as a top contributor and Gayle not listed on the roster at all. Miya doesn't even have a 26-27 team page; if you click on Michigan it takes you to last season's team page. KenPom has team pages behind a paywall, so not able to see how they're handling Michigan. That said, he did not play in their recent exhibition game so perhaps there is something stirring behind the scenes with his eligibility; something to keep an eye on.

TLDR: Pretty much everyone had Michigan in their top 10 prior to McCoy going down, and replacing him with a 5th year senior shouldn't move the needle as much as it seemingly has for everyone else.
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I'm much lower on their backcourt than most admittedly. I'll be interested in their ability to create without 3 superstar bigs.
 
#184      
the juiceman cometh
RollChief said:
If our non-conference opponents' final KenPom rankings shake out in a similar place as their preseason rankings, then this should be the second-strongest SOS in the Underwood era, if you simply take the average ranks of our non-conference opponents. See the average ranks below for those interested:

View attachment 52007

There are some sneakily interesting games in 128 Penn, 167 Sam Houston St., 205 Winthrop, 122 Western Kentucky, and 124 Seattle.
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Oh wow. Quad 3 scheduling is back baby!

Lakers-Fan-Takes-Off-Sunglasses.gif
 
#185      
EmeraldCityIllini
HoopsterMan said:
That's an interesting bet.

I'd have to do a little more investigation to see if I'm missing anyone, and take a look at the depth of all these teams. I'm not fully familiar with Iowa St's roster as I typically only spend time perusing rosters of the top 10 or so. I know they lost their two best players in Milan and Jefferson. KU I'm out on - we saw Self try this trick last year, I don't think he knows how to do it. I really like Oats, think he knows what he's doing, not fully familiar with their roster. I also respect Sampson, I'm just not sure this new era supports his system.

I have a theory on a few programs like Marquette, Iowa St. They grind so hard defensively all year that by March they are banged up and exhausted. I don't think Shaka or Otz know how to pace the season in a way where he builds momentum into the post season. They are full throttle and then by the time March rolls around, dinged up and flat. I think the best coaches know how to build to the crescendo.

I'm not totally familiar with UConn's bench. I am with you on Khamenia, not sold on him. He strikes me as a kid that may have come out of HS overhyped because he signed with Duke. I am fully sold on Hines, if there is one thing UConn does it's develop bigs and that kid is a manimal.

Is this bet UConn goes deeper in the tourney? KU isn't a concern. 1 of the other three has potential to surprise.
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You’re general point that they’re better than 11, I’d agree I think.

Iowa state has 3 starters back, including Lipsey. I think Toure takes a massive star leap, and I love singleton (can’t believe iu or Purdue didn’t go after him). And Otz produces studs year after year - them and Bama I’d look at as my favorites from that group.

You’re certainly not alone on buying Hines. But man alive he fouled a s*** ton. And Hurley developed Reed, but the first year was rocky.

The more I look at it, the more I cant believe Hurley took this big of a bet in the frontcourt. We’ll see.
 
#188      
HoopsterMan
EmeraldCityIllini said:
You’re general point that they’re better than 11, I’d agree I think.

Iowa state has 3 starters back, including Lipsey. I think Toure takes a massive star leap, and I love singleton (can’t believe iu or Purdue didn’t go after him). And Otz produces studs year after year - them and Bama I’d look at as my favorites from that group.

You’re certainly not alone on buying Hines. But man alive he fouled a s*** ton. And Hurley developed Reed, but the first year was rocky.

The more I look at it, the more I cant believe Hurley took this big of a bet in the frontcourt. We’ll see.
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Hines reclassed up to join Seton Hall a year early, so he's young. Seton Hall, because of their lack of talent, relies on extended pressure defense that isn't suited for a big like Hines. Hurley would employ him in his standard offense, which protects their big from having to run all over the floor. I think he's going to be great, like maybe leave after a year good.

Khamenia we'll see on. Theory is Hurley was so in love with Karaban, he wanted to replicate him as best he could and Khamenia stood out. Not sure that's reasonable thinking TBH, and perhaps more emotional. Could be one of Hurley's major flaws. Khamenia just doesn't impress me physically. Hurley came out of his back to back late into the portal and riding his high and really fudged that roster. I wonder if a little of that could apply here with Karaban graduating and coming off a Final loss. Could be a slight down year, we'll see. I don't know what they have going on with their bench. I think I saw recently Ball is coming back, but he seems redundant.

Otz is a great coach for what he works with, but always seems to flame out early in the tournament when the team lacks offense. Here he loses his two best offensive players. I don't think I'm buying.

Oats seems like the kind of guy that is always capable of going on a run. He's been knocked out late the last three years by what has been the best team in the tourney - UConn, Duke, Michigan. He played Michigan really tough for a half before things unraveled a bit, played UConn pretty tough in the F4 (the only team to give them a decent game).
 
#189      
fatboyslim
RollChief said:
3 weeks from today until the season officially starts!

Monday 11/2 is going to be a great day for college hoops. I think I'm going to end up watching 6 hours straight of college basketball:
- 5 PM: Florida vs. Miami
- 7 PM: Illinois vs. FDU
- 9 PM: Arizona vs. UCLA

We've also got Purdue vs. Gonzaga and Ohio St. vs. BYU.
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This matchup takes me back to the days of Tracy Murray, Don MacLean, Damon Stoudamire and Khalid Reeves
 
#192      
EmeraldCityIllini
HoopsterMan said:
Hines reclassed up to join Seton Hall a year early, so he's young. Seton Hall, because of their lack of talent, relies on extended pressure defense that isn't suited for a big like Hines. Hurley would employ him in his standard offense, which protects their big from having to run all over the floor. I think he's going to be great, like maybe leave after a year good.

Khamenia we'll see on. Theory is Hurley was so in love with Karaban, he wanted to replicate him as best he could and Khamenia stood out. Not sure that's reasonable thinking TBH, and perhaps more emotional. Could be one of Hurley's major flaws. Khamenia just doesn't impress me physically. Hurley came out of his back to back late into the portal and riding his high and really fudged that roster. I wonder if a little of that could apply here with Karaban graduating and coming off a Final loss. Could be a slight down year, we'll see. I don't know what they have going on with their bench. I think I saw recently Ball is coming back, but he seems redundant.

Otz is a great coach for what he works with, but always seems to flame out early in the tournament when the team lacks offense. Here he loses his two best offensive players. I don't think I'm buying.

Oats seems like the kind of guy that is always capable of going on a run. He's been knocked out late the last three years by what has been the best team in the tourney - UConn, Duke, Michigan. He played Michigan really tough for a half before things unraveled a bit, played UConn pretty tough in the F4 (the only team to give them a decent game).
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If Hines is lottery pick enough good to leave - then ya. They’re top 3. That just seems, sky high.

As for Otz, ya the offense is always the ceiling marker. But hard for me to punish him too much last year when Jefferson was out.
 
#197      
Red77sng
RollChief said:
3 weeks from today until the season officially starts!

Monday 11/2 is going to be a great day for college hoops. I think I'm going to end up watching 6 hours straight of college basketball:
- 5 PM: Florida vs. Miami
- 7 PM: Illinois vs. FDU
- 9 PM: Arizona vs. UCLA

We've also got Purdue vs. Gonzaga and Ohio St. vs. BYU.
Click to expand...
Fantastic
 
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