wettsten
- Chicago
the top of the block I is touching the top border. we can't get any better offensively.
Illini Basketball 2026-2027
Anticipating those top 3 are preseason 3. The scary trend is that only 1 of the top 4 make the F4. There there is a team from 5-8, then the other two teams come out of the teens through 20's.
You have to like Illinois retention... T, Z, Andre's, Mirk, Jake and a few deeper pieces that are familiar with the program.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Our “easy” games must have been so much harder in 2018-19, because we didn’t play nearly as many “big time” opponents.
The chemistry has really grown on me. You have the three retention pieces, then Vaaks coming in as lead guard, euro connected. I like how Coleman and his tenacity compliments the group. It feels like a team that should have really good chemistry.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I was super curious, so I looked up our top 50 KenPom non-conference opponents in the Underwood Era! Apologies in advance if I missed any.
2017-2018
vs. #40 Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
2018-2019
vs. #2 Gonzaga (Maui, HI)
vs. #15 Iowa State (Maui, HI)
2019-2020
at #19 Arizona
2020-2021 (Shortened COVID Season)
vs. #2 Baylor (Indianapolis, IN)
at #36 Duke
2021-2022
vs. #5 Arizona
vs. #38 Notre Dame
at #47 Missouri
2022-2023
vs. #3 UCLA (Las Vegas, NV)
vs. #5 Texas (New York, NY)
vs. #34 Virginia (Las Vegas, NV)
2023-2024
at #5 Tennessee
vs. #13 Marquette
vs. #47 FAU (New York, NY)
2024-2025
vs. #1 Duke (New York, NY)
vs. #5 Tennessee
vs. #6 Alabama (Birmingham, AL)
vs. #19 Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
vs. #36 Arkansas (Kansas City, MO)
2025-2026
vs. #9 UConn (New York, NY)
vs. #12 Alabama (Chicago, IL)
vs. #14 Tennessee (Nashville, TN)
vs. #20 Texas Tech
2026-2027
at #1 Duke
vs. #11 UConn (Chicago, IL)
at #12 Texas Tech
vs. #37 North Carolina (Nashville, TN)
vs. #48 Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
One top 50 opponent in Year 1 to five in Year 10, including three in the top 15!
Brad’s philosophy is definitely a trial by fire, which gets us tons of national exposure we didn’t have (nearly as much) for 10-15 years. Also, it seems to be the recipe most other top programs employ. Say what you will about Izzo, but even on his down years he gets MSU into fights against some of the best programs in the country.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Updated KenPom rankings / projections of the Big Ten! I divided it up by the BTT separations (double bye, etc.).
- Start on Friday -------------------------------------
(1) #4 Illinois: 15-5
(2) #7 Michigan State: 14-6
(3) #16 Nebraska: 13-7
(4) #21 Ohio State 12-8
- Start on Thursday ----------------------------------
(5) #24 Purdue: 12-8
(6) #27 UCLA: 12-8
(7) #28 Michigan: 11-9
(8) #36 USC: 11-9
- Start on Wednesday -------------------------------
(9) #40 Wisconsin: 10-10
(10) #42 Minnesota: 10-10
(11) #43 Iowa: 10-10
(12) #47 Indiana: 10-10
(13) #53 Maryland: 9-11
(14) #68 Washington: 7-13
- Start on Tuesday -----------------------------------
(15) #79 Oregon: 7-13
(16) #82 Rutgers: 7-13
(17) #87 Penn State: 6-14
(18) #89 Northwestern: 5-15
I might be putting too much stock in last season (and I obviously understand many rosters have completely changed) ... but this seems to be severely underrating both Michigan and Iowa, IMO.
- Start on Friday -------------------------------------
(1) #4 Illinois: 15-5
(2) #7 Michigan State: 14-6
(3) #16 Nebraska: 13-7
(4) #21 Ohio State 12-8
- Start on Thursday ----------------------------------
(5) #24 Purdue: 12-8
(6) #27 UCLA: 12-8
(7) #28 Michigan: 11-9
(8) #36 USC: 11-9
- Start on Wednesday -------------------------------
(9) #40 Wisconsin: 10-10
(10) #42 Minnesota: 10-10
(11) #43 Iowa: 10-10
(12) #47 Indiana: 10-10
(13) #53 Maryland: 9-11
(14) #68 Washington: 7-13
- Start on Tuesday -----------------------------------
(15) #79 Oregon: 7-13
(16) #82 Rutgers: 7-13
(17) #87 Penn State: 6-14
(18) #89 Northwestern: 5-15
I might be putting too much stock in last season (and I obviously understand many rosters have completely changed) ... but this seems to be severely underrating both Michigan and Iowa, IMO.
RabidDawgClassic
- Los Angeles, CA
Brad says Lincoln Williams is on the “two and a half pound breakfast” plan. Add that to your 2026-27 Bingo cards.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Yep, I especially love the exposure part. We'll ALWAYS have a diehard core of supporters (e.g., the folks on this board!), and due to factors like our historic success and large instate population, our "fan base floor" is very high. However, it is invaluable to be constantly showcased on the big networks in hyped matchups, shaping the perception of an entire generation of younger fans that Illinois is "always a player."
Respect (as far as TV exposure goes) tends to lag success, and I think we are seeing that respect this year. While the TV network might not make a big difference to us fans as we tune in for a big Tuesday night game, being on FOX or CBS or ESPN compared to BTN or FS1 is just a different stratosphere of relevance to the casual fan. Getting Duke on ESPN, UConn on FOX, Missouri on ESPN2, North Carolina on ESPN (or ESPN2) and the Texas Tech game still TBD is a huge improvement to the last couple years as far as eyeballs on our Illini. And that says nothing of Big Ten games like at Wisconsin on FOX, Indiana on CBS, Ohio State on CBS, MSU on FOX, Purdue on FOX, Oregon on FOX, vs. Wisconsin on CBS and vs. Iowa on FOX!
Thanks for sharing.
I get it that the Big Ten is a guantlet and these are statistical projections, so it's a little different, but the winner of the Big Ten is likely going to need fewer than 5 losses to win. Over the last 20 years, there have only been 4 years where the winners of the conference had 5+ losses. In one of those 4 years (2011-2012) there were 3 teams tied with 5 losses, so clearly everyone beat each other up that year. I also realize that the increase from 18 to a 20 game conference schedule in 2018-2019 gives additional opportunities for losses, but if we are projected to be the best team in the conference and win the conference, I think we need 3-4 losses at most.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Also, another fun KenPom exercise - while I understand KenPom rankings are not apples-to-apples with the NET Rankings, here is how our schedule would currently shake out in the Quad system if you used KenPom.
Quad 1 | #1-30 H, #1-50 N, #1-75 A
at #1 Duke
vs. #7 Michigan State
vs. #11 UConn (Chicago, IL)
at #12 Texas Tech
vs. #16 Nebraska
vs. #21 Ohio State
at #24 Purdue
vs. #24 Purdue
vs. #27 UCLA
at #28 Michigan
vs. #37 North Carolina (Nashville, TN)
at #40 Wisconsin
at #42 Minnesota
at #47 Indiana
vs. #48 Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
at #53 Maryland
at #68 Washington
Quad 2 | #31-75 H, #51-100 N, #76-135 A
vs. #36 USC
vs. #40 Wisconsin
vs. #43 Iowa
at #79 Oregon
at #82 Rutgers
at #89 Northwestern
Quad 3 | #76-160 H, #101-200 N, #135-240 A
vs. #87 Penn State
vs. #89 Northwestern
vs. #122 Western Kentucky
vs. #124 Seattle
vs. #128 Penn
Quad 4 | #161+ H, #201+ N, #241+ A
vs. #167 Sam Houston
vs. #205 Winthrop
vs. #338 Fairleigh Dickinson
vs. #359 Eastern Illinois
Again, the NET Rankings will look a lot different ... but I think we are going to have the AWESOME combination of the following when it comes to a schedule:
(1) We will have a ridiculously stacked schedule on paper that will (A) give us tons of opportunities for marquee wins and (B) give us an excellent SOS and therefore NET Ranking.
(2) Nevertheless, we will be favored in the VAST majority of these games, so it's not like we signed up for a murderer's row when we aren't ready.
(3) Two of our three highest-ranked opponents will be played in front of partisan Illini crowds (MSU in Champaign and UConn at the United Center).
Getting more pumped for this season as the days go by!!
Quad 1 | #1-30 H, #1-50 N, #1-75 A
at #1 Duke
vs. #7 Michigan State
vs. #11 UConn (Chicago, IL)
at #12 Texas Tech
vs. #16 Nebraska
vs. #21 Ohio State
at #24 Purdue
vs. #24 Purdue
vs. #27 UCLA
at #28 Michigan
vs. #37 North Carolina (Nashville, TN)
at #40 Wisconsin
at #42 Minnesota
at #47 Indiana
vs. #48 Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
at #53 Maryland
at #68 Washington
Quad 2 | #31-75 H, #51-100 N, #76-135 A
vs. #36 USC
vs. #40 Wisconsin
vs. #43 Iowa
at #79 Oregon
at #82 Rutgers
at #89 Northwestern
Quad 3 | #76-160 H, #101-200 N, #135-240 A
vs. #87 Penn State
vs. #89 Northwestern
vs. #122 Western Kentucky
vs. #124 Seattle
vs. #128 Penn
Quad 4 | #161+ H, #201+ N, #241+ A
vs. #167 Sam Houston
vs. #205 Winthrop
vs. #338 Fairleigh Dickinson
vs. #359 Eastern Illinois
Again, the NET Rankings will look a lot different ... but I think we are going to have the AWESOME combination of the following when it comes to a schedule:
(1) We will have a ridiculously stacked schedule on paper that will (A) give us tons of opportunities for marquee wins and (B) give us an excellent SOS and therefore NET Ranking.
(2) Nevertheless, we will be favored in the VAST majority of these games, so it's not like we signed up for a murderer's row when we aren't ready.
(3) Two of our three highest-ranked opponents will be played in front of partisan Illini crowds (MSU in Champaign and UConn at the United Center).
Getting more pumped for this season as the days go by!!
Semi-relevant to the points mentioned above - but it seems like there's a business decision being made to schedule quality big-market games to continue the upward momentum in viewership and the direct/indirect benefits that come with it.
If you can correlate the fan distribution of KenPom subscribers and the larger CBB viewership base, then we have 8 of the 10 schools with the largest CBB followings on the schedule (excluding Illinois from the list). Granted, 5 of these are B1G games, but perhaps a part of the reason why we've got Duke, UNC, and UConn rather than some of the SEC regulars we usually play is to build more exposure in a mutually beneficial way with the other top-viewed programs.
The list of the top 10 (11 if you exclude Illinois) most subscribed-to schools on KP is shown below:
RabidDawgClassic
- Los Angeles, CA
It must drive you nuts when Brad and the players openly say the goal is the national championship. Whats the point if you don't have high expectations?
I'm glad you chose not to size down this picture to maintain effect.
Dan
Admin
The Big 12 finally released their designations & we have a complete tipoff & TV schedule set for the regular season-
Illinois at Texas Tech (Tue, Nov 10): 7:00pm CT, Peacock [via]
Illini Basketball Schedule (fightingillini.com)
Illinois at Texas Tech (Tue, Nov 10): 7:00pm CT, Peacock [via]
Illini Basketball Schedule (fightingillini.com)
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Back on a Loyalty posting binge, I guess! 
Comparison of the Big Ten since the 2019-2020 season:
National Championships
Michigan - 1
(Rest = 0)
Final Fours
Illinois - 1
Michigan - 1
Purdue - 1
UCLA - 1
(Rest = 0)
Elite Eights
Illinois - 2
Michigan - 2
Purdue - 2
Iowa - 1
Michigan State - 1
UCLA - 1
USC - 1
(Rest = 0)
Sweet Sixteens
Michigan - 4
Purdue - 4
Michigan State - 3
UCLA - 3
Illinois - 2
Iowa - 1
Nebraska - 1
Maryland - 1
Oregon - 1
USC - 1
(Rest = 0)
NCAA Tournament Appearances
Illinois - 6
Michigan State - 6
Purdue - 6
UCLA - 5
Wisconsin - 5
Iowa - 4
Michigan - 4
Ohio State - 3
Oregon - 3
UCLA - 3
Nebraska - 2
Indiana - 2
Northwestern - 2
Rutgers - 2
Penn State - 1
Big Ten Regular Season Championships
Michigan State - 2
Purdue - 2
Wisconsin - 2
Michigan - 2*
Illinois - 1.5*
Maryland - 1
(Rest = 0)
Big Ten Tournament Championships
Purdue - 2
Illinois - 2
Michigan - 1
Iowa - 1
(Rest = 0)
Weeks in the AP Top 25
#6 Purdue - 104
#10 Illinois - 95
#15 Michigan State - 78
#16 Wisconsin - 72
#21 Michigan - 63
#26 UCLA - 53
#27 Ohio State - 52
#32 Oregon - 41
#34 Iowa - 36
#35 Maryland - 35
#42 USC - 28
#50 Indiana - 22
#59 Nebraska - 15
#59 Rutgers - 15
#65 Penn State - 10
#72 Washington - 6
#77 Minnesota - 5
#83 Northwestern - 3
NCAA Tournament #1 Seeds
Michigan - 2
Purdue - 2
Illinois - 1
(Rest = 0)
NCAA Tournament Protected (Top 4) Seeds
Purdue - 6
Illinois - 4
Michigan - 2
Michigan State - 2
Wisconsin - 2
Nebraska - 1
Maryland - 1
Indiana - 1
UCLA - 1
Iowa - 1
Ohio State - 1
(Rest = 0)
So, Minnesota and Washington are the only teams to never make the NCAA Tournament this decade. You HAVE to give the ultimate credit to Michigan for finally winning the National Title for the Big Ten, but considering what a noticeable down period they had from 2022 to 2024, that sort of boosts Purdue and Illinois and MSU back up. You'll get a different top 3-4 depending on the category, but it seems clear to me that Illinois and Purdue have been the most consistent players year to year who you just always expect to be up there, with Purdue having the slight edge over us. We closed that gap significantly last year by breaking through to the Final Four, but this seasons is a HUGE opportunity for us to establish ourselves as the best program in the conference this decade!
Comparison of the Big Ten since the 2019-2020 season:National Championships
Michigan - 1
(Rest = 0)
Final Fours
Illinois - 1
Michigan - 1
Purdue - 1
UCLA - 1
(Rest = 0)
Elite Eights
Illinois - 2
Michigan - 2
Purdue - 2
Iowa - 1
Michigan State - 1
UCLA - 1
USC - 1
(Rest = 0)
Sweet Sixteens
Michigan - 4
Purdue - 4
Michigan State - 3
UCLA - 3
Illinois - 2
Iowa - 1
Nebraska - 1
Maryland - 1
Oregon - 1
USC - 1
(Rest = 0)
NCAA Tournament Appearances
Illinois - 6
Michigan State - 6
Purdue - 6
UCLA - 5
Wisconsin - 5
Iowa - 4
Michigan - 4
Ohio State - 3
Oregon - 3
UCLA - 3
Nebraska - 2
Indiana - 2
Northwestern - 2
Rutgers - 2
Penn State - 1
Big Ten Regular Season Championships
Michigan State - 2
Purdue - 2
Wisconsin - 2
Michigan - 2*
Illinois - 1.5*
Maryland - 1
(Rest = 0)
Big Ten Tournament Championships
Purdue - 2
Illinois - 2
Michigan - 1
Iowa - 1
(Rest = 0)
Weeks in the AP Top 25
#6 Purdue - 104
#10 Illinois - 95
#15 Michigan State - 78
#16 Wisconsin - 72
#21 Michigan - 63
#26 UCLA - 53
#27 Ohio State - 52
#32 Oregon - 41
#34 Iowa - 36
#35 Maryland - 35
#42 USC - 28
#50 Indiana - 22
#59 Nebraska - 15
#59 Rutgers - 15
#65 Penn State - 10
#72 Washington - 6
#77 Minnesota - 5
#83 Northwestern - 3
NCAA Tournament #1 Seeds
Michigan - 2
Purdue - 2
Illinois - 1
(Rest = 0)
NCAA Tournament Protected (Top 4) Seeds
Purdue - 6
Illinois - 4
Michigan - 2
Michigan State - 2
Wisconsin - 2
Nebraska - 1
Maryland - 1
Indiana - 1
UCLA - 1
Iowa - 1
Ohio State - 1
(Rest = 0)
So, Minnesota and Washington are the only teams to never make the NCAA Tournament this decade.
You HAVE to give the ultimate credit to Michigan for finally winning the National Title for the Big Ten, but considering what a noticeable down period they had from 2022 to 2024, that sort of boosts Purdue and Illinois and MSU back up. You'll get a different top 3-4 depending on the category, but it seems clear to me that Illinois and Purdue have been the most consistent players year to year who you just always expect to be up there, with Purdue having the slight edge over us. We closed that gap significantly last year by breaking through to the Final Four, but this seasons is a HUGE opportunity for us to establish ourselves as the best program in the conference this decade!Every team says that every year. No one actually expects the majority of them to do that.
The problem is pressure. It's one thing if a team comes out of the blue and wins. It's quite another to be expected to be a title favorite.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Somewhat OT, but I just want to recommend YouTube TV to anyone here who is frustrated by the current TV situation in college sports! Its one big downfall (for me) is that it doesn't have Marquee so I could not watch the Cubs a lot this summer ... but it includes all of the channels that have annoyingly been moved to the HBO app (TBS, TNT and TruTV), and it also includes Peacock! User interface and lagging issues are also miles better than what I was using before (Fubo).
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I'll agree to an extent. I mean, Brad's public comments in the first couple rebuilding years (as it related to a single season, not long-term goals) were probably more about "getting better" and stuff like that. This is really the first year where we will (A) enter the season with the ACTUAL hype to be National Title contenders and (B) have literal, actual proof from the year before that we can get there!
Thanks for doing this. So fun to have schedules like these. He actually accomplished 3 in the top 15 by year 8 he had 3 top 15 again in year 9, and both of those years 4 in the top 20. It's certainly a big turnaround under Underwood to say the least. Go ILLINI!!!
I don't know. I think you need to give BU a little bit of credit for this. I don't recall his predecessors being so public and so explicit about their goal or expectation to win a national championship at Illinois.
You tend to hear a lot of coach speak like, "We're just going to take it one game at a time." or "We're just going to try to get better every day and control what we can control." or "PlAyOffs??! Don't talk about plAYoffs! You kiddin' me."
It's BU's willingness to set those goals and say them out loud that always gave me faith he'd get us back to a Final Four at least.
Does he actually expect to win it this year? Maybe. Coaches are irrational beings when it comes to the confidence they have in themselves and in their guys.
Should we as fans expect to win it this year? No. You can't assume that a national championship is the most likely outcome for any team.
But we're more capable of it than almost any other team in the country and I'd much rather have that kind of expectations and pressure on the team than the alternative.