Bowls/CFP Projections
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
We should now make it into this week's BOWL GAME conversation! The Penn St and Michigan slots (from last week) are certainly now up for grabs, among others.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
We will be in conversation again.
Michigan should be 3-4 and sweating not making a bowl. Too bad…
yup
watch them end up 7-5 & snagging a Citrus Bowl bid cuz , Michigan
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
Frisco Bowl
The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Memphis
Schlabach: UConn vs. New Mexico
Per ESPN today.........
The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Memphis
Schlabach: UConn vs. New Mexico
Per ESPN today.........
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Mississippi State vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Auburn
Option 2: Also from ESPN today.......
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Mississippi State vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Auburn
Option 2: Also from ESPN today.......
Illini in Italy
- Illini HQ, Florida Panhandle
I hope we win a couple more games to put us in slightly better bowls than the Frisco or Birmingham bowl, although Birmingham is closes enough for me to drive
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Probably would need to get to 7-5 to be in the slightly higher tier of games. That would be quite an impressive finish to the season if the Illini can get to that record.
TentakilRex
- Land O Insects between Quincy-Macomb-Jacksonville
Memphis might not even have a team by then....Huff might have a bigger job
Cool, get to beat up another Veer and Shoot SEC team
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
There are currently (10) 2 loss teams ranked in the AP poll. 7 of them are in the SEC.
The SEC has (7) 2 loss teams. All 7 of them are ranked.
The B1G has (5) 2 loss team's. Just 1 of the 5 is ranked.
The SEC has (7) 2 loss teams. All 7 of them are ranked.
The B1G has (5) 2 loss team's. Just 1 of the 5 is ranked.
Likely explained by the Big 10 record v other P4 teams.
Last edited:
Boosted by the presumption that a loss to an SEC team isn’t as serious as a loss to a non-SEC team.
As the season progresses (with teams evolving & devolving at the same time) there’s less and less inter-conference data, so conference games dominate the process. Then rankings increasingly rely on circular logic, sending SEC rankings spiraling higher because their losses are mostly to “superior” SEC teams.
Bowl and CFP games eventually unmask the charade, until it’s repeated the following season, driven by SEC fan support and media desire to tap their wallets. The CFP itself provides the only decent metric of relative strength.
Last edited:
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
On the other hand, the B1G has 3 of the top 7, whereas the SEC only has 1 of the top 8.
i tend to agree with you usually, but this is a weird year. doesn't help when minnesota gets destroyed at home by mississippi state, or even ohio state giving up, what, 20-something unanswered to a struggling texas offense.
i guess we'll see during bowl season and playoffs.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Yeah, even though everyone walked out of that game knowing that Ohio State was the better team, it has had a cascading effect on the two conferences in terms of who played who when they were ranked what.
The other thing is that while Bob Chesney has done even better than Will Stein in the miracle turnaround department, in taking the reins at rich talented powerhouses, Lane Kiffin and Jon Sumrall have dramatically outperformed Kyle Whittingham and Matt Campbell. That alone pretty much accounts for the depth difference in the conferences this year.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
“I wonder why he stopped at 8? Most people would do a top 10.”
*looks up poll*
Oh, it’s because the SEC holds spots 9 and 10, along with 11, 12, 15, 16, and 17.
But that’s not my point anyways. The point I’m making isn’t how many teams each conference has ranked, it’s how many teams each conference has ranked at each loss level.
Another way to put it:
The ACC has the one highest ranked 0 loss team. The second highest 0 loss team is in the B12.
The B1G has the one highest ranked 1 loss team. The second highest 1 loss team is in the SEC.
The SEC has the six highest ranked 2 loss teams. And all seven 2 loss teams in their conference are ranked.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
But like, who cares? The SEC has a glut of unusually confusing resumes in that middle class, Florida above all. The whole conference would make way more sense if the scores of all four of Florida's last four games were reversed.
Do you think Iowa and Minnesota are better than Mizzou and Florida? That's the question facing the poll voters. Are they getting it wrong?
(The advanced stats, for whatever it's worth, think it's considerably more complicated than that)
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
I care.
If we want to use the advanced metrics, SP+ has:
Nebraska @ #15
USC @ #19
Iowa @ #23
All 3 with 2 losses, yet none of the 3 are ranked.
The SEC on the other hand, has:
Ole Miss @ #16
Missouri @ #18
Florida @ #31
All 3 with 2 losses, all 3 in the same range of analytics as their B1G peers who are unranked, yet all 3 are ranked.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
What would your ballot look like?
Would conference balancing and fairness be a large consideration for you (contra, for instance, the NCAA basketball tournament selection process)?
I don't have strong feelings about what's right or wrong here, I think it's a genuinely confounding season so far in terms of knowing who is good.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
To be fair, Nebraska has lost two straight games and looked pretty poor in the process. USC looked terrible in Madison. Not to mention, they both lost to Oregon who have losses to what some outsiders (or maybe just in Eugene) view as Poverty A$$ programs in Ok State and Illinois.
In general, I tend to view spots 15-30 in the polls as tossups at this point in the year (this season especially). Come the end of November, I think a top 20-25 teams becomes much clearer.
I am not ready to callout a large SEC bias at the moment.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
I feel like the case for that glut of 2-loss SEC teams is that with the exception of LSU, they all either have a dominant win against one of the others, or have beaten someone even further up the food chain.
Bama crushed Kentucky, Florida crushed Ole Miss, Ole Miss crushed Mizzou, Tennessee crushed Bama, Mizzou crushed Florida, Texas beat Ohio State (see what I mean? What do you do with that circle?)
The only such win among the B1G 2-loss crew is Wisconsin (crushed USC), and lo and behold they're the ones with a ranking.
The SEC teams also mostly haven't played UGA yet, whereas the B1G two-loss teams have a bunch of losses to that elite top tier.
(Wisconsin over LSU is probably the strongest case for swapping, those are two teams whose week 1 results were deceptive.)
It's crap! That's why I hope we get another SEC team in a bowl.