sacraig
- The desert
I just hope we aren't a 5 because I don't want to read 1000 posts about 12-5 upsets.
1/24 Bracketology
- Status
I'll settle for being a 5 and having to wade through 1000 (or even 10,000) posts as long as we win the game.
sacraig
- The desert
Well sure. I'd just rather be a 4 or a 6 and still win the game.
Sounds like a plan.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
I do not think there are any crazy good projected 2 or 3 seeds in the tourney, so I would not be too disappointed if the Illini are a 6 or 7 seed. I hope Gonzaga gets a 3 seed in our region with us as a 6 seed. They may be the softest top 15 ranked team I have ever seen.
In general, I think the key will be getting a 7 seed or better this year. The way the last two years have gone, I would be completely content being underdogs in the second round, but not in a 1-8 matchup.
In general, I think the key will be getting a 7 seed or better this year. The way the last two years have gone, I would be completely content being underdogs in the second round, but not in a 1-8 matchup.
the national
- the Front Range
I would love to be the team that another fanbase complains about being "underseeded" going into the tournament.
It’s a perfect set up
foby
- Bonnaroo Land
Or listen to 1000 "experts" picking us to get upset.
Nebraska and Minnesota would be in the top 3 or 4 of the ACC/PAC12? Come on. Im done here. I don't go back and forth with people out of touch with reality. I made my point and you disregarded everything I said and repeated what you already said before. Im not repeating myself for somebody that can't accept that by our own conference's standards and recent years, our conference is down this year. It is what it is.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
The range is pretty astounding, if you ask me. This is us today:
Record: 14-6
NET Ranking: #28
SOS Ranking: #29
vs. Quad 1: 3-4
vs. Quad 2: 3-2
vs. Quad 3: 2-0
vs. Quad 4: 6-0
Quad 1 Wins (Using NET #s)
- vs. #5 UCLA (Las Vegas, NV)
- vs. #8 Texas (New York, NY)
- vs. #27 Ohio State ... how are they still this high?!
And we have SEVEN Quad 1 opportunities left (in green)! In addition to those, we also have
at #70 Wisconsin (Q1)
vs. #100 Nebraska (Q3)
at #41 Iowa (Q1)
vs. #215 Minnesota (Q4)
vs. #20 Rutgers (Q1)
at #60 Penn State (Q1)
at #21 Indiana (Q1)
vs. #44 Northwestern (Q2)
at #27 Ohio State (Q1)
vs. #74 Michigan (Q2)
at #4 Purdue (Q1)
Let's assume the rankings stay the same (for the sake of simplicity), we win the Quad 2+ games at home and go 3-4 in the Quad 1 games. That gives us the following resume before the Big Ten Tournament:
Record: 21-10
NET Ranking: ???
SOS Ranking: ??? Likely top 20?
vs. Quad 1: 6-8
vs. Quad 2: 5-2
vs. Quad 3: 3-0
vs. Quad 4: 7-0
While the record doesn't look AMAZING, the Quad records actually kind of do ... that team is probably at least knocking on the door of a 5-seed in a year like this, and if we really got hot, we could definitely go better than 3-4 in those Quad 1 games.
The point is, I guess, that we have a lot of room to fall and a lot of room to climb. Our 2020-21 team literally turned its season around by beating #7 Iowa at home to go to 11-5 on the year EXACTLY two years ago today ... and they got a 1-seed.
It's been said a billion times, but if we could get the consistency down, the sky is the limit - there is just simply so much parity this year that there is an artificially large gap for teams to rise above the pack. Why not us?!
I consider being a top 4 seed every year as a legit program goal regardless of whose on the team..... With an occasional top 2 seed here and there. We've had stretches like this early this century and are in one now!
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
IMO the 5/12 upset is going to become less common relative to the 6/11. 12 seeds used to be the last bubble teams in. On that part of the bubble it's really tough to sort teams, so 12s and 11s were roughly equivalent (on average) and won about the same % of games. These days it seems like there's almost never an at-large 12 seed. I guess that's because of conference expansion, or maybe fewer leagues with champions that would also be at-large bids? Either way, I'm guessing it also means the 5/12 upset has become less common.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
1) I never said NE or MN would compete for top 3 or 4 in ACC/Pac 12; I clearly indicated NE/MN were excluded from that argument-> Not sure how you deduced that, unless you are intentionally trolling
2) I never disregarded your point, I simply asked for clarity on what defines "conference standards" that you keep referring-> you make arguments that the B1G is not up to conference standard, for whatever that exactly means. Instead of answering and clarifying that, you went on an ad hominem attack about how I am out of touch with reality
3) Our conference is "down" regarding number of top 5/10 quality teams. Nobody on this board, myself included, disagrees with that. I think the Big 12 is by far the strongest conference this year, in relation to number of top tier teams. However, it is easy to argue that the depth of the B1G is deeper than every other conference, and about as strong as it has ever been. When you have currently 10 teams in the top 50 of Pomeroy rankings (20% of the teams!), and 13 out of the 14 teams in the top 100, this league is particularly strong. Other metrics also point to the incredible depth of the conference.
But please, keep believing that the league is incredibly down this year...you are entitled to your own opinion.
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Wherever they seed Our Orange Heroes is fine so long as Our Orange Heroes win a minimum of two tournament games. Anything less than that is a major disappointment.
It's Time for the Illini to build a resume of Tournament success again. That's been absent for 18 years. Way too long for the Basketball Capital of the World.
One and Done? No thanks. More like... More... More... MORE.
There is nothing like success in the Dance. Each game builds on the excitement of the last. More fans come on board. More of the Nation takes notice. Palms get sweatier... tension gets heavier... lights get brighter... Dreams get bigger... Smiles get wider... Pressure builds and players are challenged like never before.
And true heroes step up and out into the Spotlight. Some are known... and some are born overnight. And some have to learn how to hide the hurt that might last a lifetime.
March and April are the real Holiday Season.
Name definitely checks out.
Interesting.
I just checked this out and it's pretty telling. But the 6/11 or 5/12 featuring a playin team gets an upset most years. A couple times that play in team has made a run.
I think that extra warm up game really can help a team get over first game jitters. For us in particular, with a bunch of key freshmen, definitely don't need to be in that position.
Only difference between losing as a 5 and losing as a 7 is that it's not "upsetting" to lose as a 7. Truth be told, I'd rather be in a spot where our team has expectations than just happy to maybe win a game.
One of my biggest gripes about how March Madness is the sole focus of so much of the sport world zeitgeist when it comes to college basketball is that it basically treats the entire season up to that point as like an exhibition or something, to where your whole season is irrelevant and only matters what you do in a single game elimination tournament. It's not like seeds are descended from on high based on a "feel" of how good you are, it's all about how you performed during an entire season.
One of my biggest gripes about how March Madness is the sole focus of so much of the sport world zeitgeist when it comes to college basketball is that it basically treats the entire season up to that point as like an exhibition or something, to where your whole season is irrelevant and only matters what you do in a single game elimination tournament. It's not like seeds are descended from on high based on a "feel" of how good you are, it's all about how you performed during an entire season.
It's the reality, which is unfortunate for die-hard fans. Conference championships and conference tournaments are much less prestigious than when the whole world is watching (and betting) on The Dance. But I feel like it's much worse in the BIG given the level of parity, increased size of the conference, and the watering down of rivalries with more conference games. The nail in the coffin though is the lack of recent tournament success. The last FF team from the BIG was 2019! and going back a couple more years the conference missed 2016 and 2017. Can't recall when there was such a dearth of high level success. Feels much worse given the importance of the tournament.
One more thought on this, is the amount of NBA talent. Admittedly my hazy memory doesn't necessarily correlate well with facts, but my sense is that the depth in the SEC (non-Kentucky) has sky-rocketed, with a lot of those teams sucking up high level guys at the expense of the BIG. And the usual blue-bloods like Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, and North Car are still getting a lot of the one-and-done guys (and a mix from next tier schools as well). I feel like a bad year for the BIG used to be 10% of the NBA draft picks, and now that's the norm or a good year.
There wasn't a tournament in 2020, so it's really just two years (of course the championship drought is a whole different topic)
By EVERY metric you want to use. That's what metrics. Star power, final four caliber teams, depth. Everything. The league is having one of its worst years in recent memory. If you can't see that, then you haven't paid attention to Big 10 basketball over the last 2 decadas. Having a bunch of bubble teams doesn't make us strong compared to where we've been. And the fact that you need to compare the Big 10 to 2 conferences that have either been bad or having a down year themselves just proves my point. We are having a good year by Pac 12 standards, a bad year by the standards we have set for ourselves. We're talking about basketball, not academics. You are 100% drinking koolaid.
Speaking for myself as one member of Illini Nation... it’s not that the regular season has no meaning. It’s a big deal to compete in the best roundball Conference in the Nation and go for that Conference Title.
Each and every game is big deal for these young men who have a short window of opportunity during their careers in a tough, competitive sport and ‘profession’. And with a bad turn of an ankle or worse... things could turn very bad quickly for any of them in the blink of an eye. Life-alerting kind of change. Nothing can ever be taken for granted.
But the Tournament is a big deal because this is the Mountain that the Illini most need to climb. The Orange have tasted the sweet nectar of Conference Championships. And for that, all of us here are grateful and appreciative.
But what has been most lacking in the great and storied history of Illini Basketball is National Championships. Or lately, just performing well in the Dance at all.
A great legacy roundball power that aches and yearns to stand alone at the Summit.
The Illini had generational talents in Ayo and Kofi and yet that Mountain was still too steep and challenging to climb. This frustrated them, and us.
And while the memory of 2005 is cherished by anyone in Illini Nation... that sweet taste of the Big Trophy is still missing from our experience. And that is now an entire generation or so removed from our Time today.
The Numbers 75 and 70 are burned into our minds and leave a sore and a scar that begs for healing. And the mere mention or sight of anything North Carolina brings it all back like it just happened yesterday. A wrong that needs to be righted someday, somewhere.
We need that Big Trophy. We need it for Luther and Deron and Dee and Roger and Malcolm and Trent and Ayo and Kofi and Coach Underwood and all the many greats and average guys who played for the Illini. And for our parents and grandparents... and for the Great Illini Nation that reaches far and wide across the Globe yet united in devotion to place and an ideal.
So while every game is important... the games do get bigger as the Season moves along and the tension builds and the hopes grow and the dreams get closer.
And since there can be only one team standing at each Season’s end... we fix our gaze and our dreams upon the fine young men who chose to wear Prairie Orange above all other colors and places on Planet Earth. And they carry our good wishes and our dreams with them with every trip down the floor.
This just isn't true, and I'm not sure why you're being resistant when presented with real data. Metrically, the conference is top 2 or 3. Purdue is a top team and the depth of the conference is fantastic. This is all a result of how the conference performed, as a whole, in non-conference play. KenPom, NET, Bartovik all paint the same picture. The Big 12 is running away with "best conference" metrics, then the SEC and Big Ten are right there with each other with the Big Ten slightly edging it out. The ACC and Pac-12 are both "power" conferences, why wouldn't they be compared with them? You're just using a deep conference as opposed to a more top heavy one to automatically mean bad. That's just silly and flawed. No offense, but I think you're drinking the opposite of koolaid.
Thank you for this post! Should be pinned and required reading.
Illini in Indiana
- Indiana
Personally I'd take a 6 seed over a 4 or 5 seed. If ( and it's a big if), you can get to a sweet 16 you are likely to get a team that you can beat. At worst you get a 3 seed, and that's a lot better than a 1 seed.
- Status