KenPom isn't based on NET. The NET rankings are an efficiency-based evaluation tool similar to KenPom, but KenPom is a different system and predates NET by over a decade. Also, NET considers wins and losses, while KenPom does not.
1/24 Bracketology
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danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
We're back in the Top 25 -- Coach's Poll:
| 19 | Clemson | 18-4 | 212 | 0 | 23 | 4 | 19/NR |
| 20 | Florida Atlantic | 21-1 | 162 | 0 | 24 | 4 | 20/NR |
| 21 | Miami-Florida | 16-5 | 97 | 0 | 19 | -2 | 12/NR |
| 22 | Indiana | 15-6 | 93 | 0 | NR | 4 | 8/NR |
| 23 | Connecticut | 16-6 | 81 | 0 | 20 | -3 | 2/NR |
| 23 | Auburn | 16-5 | 81 | 0 | 16 | -7 | 14/24 |
| 25 | Illinois | 15-6 | 67 | 0 | NR | 4 | 14/NR |
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Win both games this week, and we are likely top 25 in both polls.
We are not ranked in the AP.
I know, which is why I did not capitalize "net" in net ratings. A team's net rating is its point differential per possession (usually 100 possessions).
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I think it is undeniable that the Big Ten lacks a team that screams "Final Four threat" ... even Purdue. In that sense, it certainly seems like the conference is down at the top. However, I would argue it's very hard to tell just how "good" the Big Ten is. While you probably won't catch even the biggest B1G homer saying we are as good as the Big XII or anything, we seem on par with just about everyone else. We performed quite well in the non-conference, and our teams did not start to tumble out of the rankings until conference play started ... and can you really hold that against our conference if we are losing to our own teams?
I think the now-cliche line about the Big Ten is pretty damn accurate - we are an incredibly deep and competitive conference, but we lack truly "elite" teams. What's exciting and frustrating is that this team has that potential on paper, we just need to bring it every night.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
He said if we win both games this week, we will be ranked next week ... and we certainly would be. We are ranked #28 in the AP Poll (the ream receiving the third most votes of the "RV" category) and we actually are ranked at #25 in the Coaches' Poll. If we beat Nebraska and then win a tough road game at Iowa, we will be sitting at 17-6 (8-4), having won 8 of our last 9 games. We would absolutely 100% be ranked, IMO.
Don't really disagree with your conference characterization, but I quibble with this one. Purdue is the consensus overall #1 seed and #1 in the country. What more do you want? They don't top out on the analytics, but if you watch them play, they certainly pass the eye test.
Interesting take for a team that is a unanimous #1 right now.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Absolutely correct, plus it is only Mizzou and Charleston ahead of us in receiving votes. We should easily jump Charleston with 2 wins. Auburn (#25) plays @ Tennessee, which is likely a loss, and if UCONN (#24) looks bad against DePaul and Georgetown; we should easily jump both of them and be in top 25 (regardless of what Mizzou does).
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
"The Kansas guy"...priceless
This does show that B1G has some top end talent players.
Question on Edey (no denying he has great chance to win POY): Do officials in Tourney call him for fouls that he gets away with in B1G play? He seems to get away with a lot of fouls on a constant basis. If the whistle is tighter in the tourney, Purdue could be in some trouble.
Homecoming 2019
- Chicago
I think this is the general consensus for why B1G teams struggle in March. An overreliance on bigs.
In fairness, it's in the conference name. Ok I'll leave
My apologies, then. The person you were responding to was clearly referring to NET, and I lazily assumed you were, as well.
That said, KenPom adjusts efficiency based on a moving national average at the time a game is played, so it isn't really using net ratings. If a team were perfectly consistent and had the same offensive and defensive efficiency every game throughout the season, they'd have a consistent net rating. But in KenPom's system, their rating would gradually decrease because the national average rises throughout the season.
I think Kansas would disagree. Or Kentucky. Or North Carolina. Even Gonzaga. Good bigs are hard to find so "relying" on them doesn't happen all that often. We'll see who can guard Purdue and Edey this year. Even TJD is starting to figure it out.
Some interesting facts from Jeff Sagarin's CBB Ratings page. Jeff is the KenPom before there was KenPom.
A cool thing about Jeff's page is he puts the days game predictions at the bottom of the page. One interesting game today Baylor @ Texas.
I tried to fix this but the site changes the formatting. Removing spaces or tabs. sorry
Rating Favorite _
MONEY=odds to 100 _
FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _
======================================================================================================
TEXAS 3.01 3.69 2.82 2.61 baylor 157 61% 149.85
EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence
EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG
@ Texas 3.61 172 63% Baylor
Conference Rankings (teams in the top 30)
1. Big 12 (6)
2. B1G (6)
3. Big East? (5)
4. SEC (4)
5. PAC 12 (2)
The Illini are the second highest rated B1G team.
4. Purdue
16. Illinois
17. Indiana
20. Rutgers
24. Iowa
28. Maryland
33. OSU
37. MSU
40. Northwestern
46. Penn State
57. Michigan
61. Wisconsin
102. Nebraska
144. Minnesota
A cool thing about Jeff's page is he puts the days game predictions at the bottom of the page. One interesting game today Baylor @ Texas.
I tried to fix this but the site changes the formatting. Removing spaces or tabs. sorry
Rating Favorite _
MONEY=odds to 100 _
FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _
======================================================================================================
TEXAS 3.01 3.69 2.82 2.61 baylor 157 61% 149.85
EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence
EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG
@ Texas 3.61 172 63% Baylor
Conference Rankings (teams in the top 30)
1. Big 12 (6)
2. B1G (6)
3. Big East? (5)
4. SEC (4)
5. PAC 12 (2)
The Illini are the second highest rated B1G team.
4. Purdue
16. Illinois
17. Indiana
20. Rutgers
24. Iowa
28. Maryland
33. OSU
37. MSU
40. Northwestern
46. Penn State
57. Michigan
61. Wisconsin
102. Nebraska
144. Minnesota
Beating IOWA on the road will not be easy. They, like us are playing much better.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
If we are being completely honest, no road conference game outside of Nebraska and Minnesota is easy this year. I expect a very tight game on Saturday, and we very much need to handle our business at home down the stretch.
Purdue has failed so many with way better teams than this year's team in getting to the Final Four. They are a Edey in foul trouble game from another earlier exit so they to me need to show it when it matters the most.
This year's team has nothing to do with any other Purdue team. They are absolutely capable of getting making the Final Four this year and it seems like that's all @Calvin was saying.
This year's team has a Matt Painter as coach. He's been the coach for many of their underperformances in the tournament. I'm not about to give them a pass because they are number 1 at the end of January. I can't give them the benefit of the doubt, I need to see it in the tournament. Past performance matters to me.
Past tournament results are usually the worst way to gauge a team. It's like chasing patterns that are just scatterplots. How Purdue did in the tournament two years ago as a 4 seed against North Texas will have zero bearing on this year's team. Matt Painter doesn't suddenly forget how to coach basketball teams because it's the NCAA Tournament.
Past tournament results is the ONLY way to gauge a team if you are going to say 'Purdue is the consensus overall #1 seed and #1 in the country. What more do you want?' I want to see them advance to the Final Four for me to be sold on them and not flame out earlier than expected or to a lower seeded team which they have done numerous times. If they don't get to the Final Four this year what will be the excuse next year if they are in the same position? Will it be 'Past tournament results are usually the worst way to gauge a team. '
You can't convince me that the past doesn't matter when that's all I have to go by. That goes for any team in any sport that has a long history of flaming out in the playoffs or tournament. You are not going to get the benefit of the doubt because you had a great regular season if you haven't shown that you can do it in the postseason.
You can't convince me that the past doesn't matter when that's all I have to go by. That goes for any team in any sport that has a long history of flaming out in the playoffs or tournament. You are not going to get the benefit of the doubt because you had a great regular season if you haven't shown that you can do it in the postseason.
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