2016 Coaching Carousel

#251      

Tevo

Tevo
Wilmette, IL
Tevo
Cubby Blue said:
is it laughable that Groce got to the NCAA 50% of the time while Drew got there 40% and that Groce was the only one to get past the second round? Heck, Drew has never won an NCAA tournament game. The only reason he got to the second round was because the committee named the first four the "first round". Drew gets a lot of weight from a schedule that has a weak Horizon since Butler left in 2012.
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Come on. Billy Bean explained how the playoffs are a crap shoot, even when you're playing multi-game series like in baseball. A lose-and-go-home tournament like the NCAAs, where matchups can swing advantages wildly in different directions, is even worse. Just because a 14 beats a 3 doesn't mean the 14's coach is a "better" coach. And just because a guy goes 0-3 with 13 and 14 seeded teams doesn't mean he's lousy and will never have tournament success.

If Groce had a pedestrian regular season record, but won some tournament games, does that mean he became a better coach during those games? Or is it more likely he had good matchups, dictated by the whims of the committee? Yes, he gets credit for the wins, as he should. But surely those three wins don't tell you more about him than the 141 other games he coached at Ohio.
 
#252      

Cubby Blue

C
Cubby Blue
Tevo said:
Come on. Billy Bean explained how the playoffs are a crap shoot, even when you're playing multi-game series like in baseball. A lose-and-go-home tournament like the NCAAs, where matchups can swing advantages wildly in different directions, is even worse. Just because a 14 beats a 3 doesn't mean the 14's coach is a "better" coach. And just because a guy goes 0-3 with 13 and 14 seeded teams doesn't mean he's lousy and will never have tournament success.

If Groce had a pedestrian regular season record, but won some tournament games, does that mean he became a better coach during those games? Or is it more likely he had good matchups, dictated by the whims of the committee? Yes, he gets credit for the wins, as he should. But surely those three wins don't tell you more about him than the 141 other games he coached at Ohio.
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So his regular seasons in the Horizon tell you he is the man huh?
 
#253      

Newman

N
Newman
It's a gamble either way, would you rather have a coach with a good record in a bad conference, or a coach with post season success and high major recruiting experience? Nobody is saying that Bryce won't be a good high major coach eventually, but his record in the horizon league may not translate to success at a higher level. IMO, recruiting is much more important when you're rebuilding a program and that was supposed to be Groce's strength. This isn't about evaluating with hindsight though.
 
#254      

Foggy Notion

Foggy Notion
San Francisco
Foggy Notion
Sal Iacuzzo said:
I think the format of the Horizon tournament with the double byes hurts the top 2 seeds.

He is 0-2 in the NCAA tournament as a 13 and 14 seed, not really concerned too greatly with that. If he was 0-9 it would be a red flag, but 2 games is not a large enough sample to derive anything meaningful from it.
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It is meaningful that he has not demonstrated the ability to win in the tournament, and that is what most fans care about the most.

The sample size on my ability to coach a team to tourney wins is also small. In fact, I have two fewer losses than Drew. Do you want to hire me as your coach?
 
#256      

Foggy Notion

Foggy Notion
San Francisco
Foggy Notion
Tevo said:
Come on. Billy Bean explained how the playoffs are a crap shoot, even when you're playing multi-game series like in baseball. A lose-and-go-home tournament like the NCAAs, where matchups can swing advantages wildly in different directions, is even worse. Just because a 14 beats a 3 doesn't mean the 14's coach is a "better" coach. And just because a guy goes 0-3 with 13 and 14 seeded teams doesn't mean he's lousy and will never have tournament success.

If Groce had a pedestrian regular season record, but won some tournament games, does that mean he became a better coach during those games? Or is it more likely he had good matchups, dictated by the whims of the committee? Yes, he gets credit for the wins, as he should. But surely those three wins don't tell you more about him than the 141 other games he coached at Ohio.
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If we attribute winning to dumb luck, we should just hire the luckiest coach.
 
#257      

Second and Chalmers

S
Second and Chalmers
Cubby Blue said:
agreed. But, his tournament record is not very good. Even in the conference tournament again like this year.
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Lets even the scales here. The conference record is the best quick measurement because it's the largest apples-to-apples sample size, but we can grow that sample size by just adding NCAA, conference tournament, and non-conference results against Power 5 teams

Groce:

32-30 Conference
9-2 Conference Tournament
3-2 NCAA's
0-5 Non-Conference Power 5

44-39 Total

Drew:

63-19 Conference
5-3 Conference Tournament
0-2 NCAA's
1-5 Non-Conference Power 5

69-29 Total


Still not close.

Another fun fact, people are mentioning that Butler leaving weakened the Horizon League, and it did, but Butler's last year in the conference was Drew's first as Head Coach, it was the year after their back-to-back Final Fours, Stevens was still the coach, and Valpo beat Butler THREE times, winning the conference outright, denying Butler their 6th consecutive conference title, and knocking them out of NCAA contention in the Horizon League tourney.
 
#260      

Cubby Blue

C
Cubby Blue
Second and Chalmers said:
Lets even the scales here. The conference record is the best quick measurement because it's the largest apples-to-apples sample size, but we can grow that sample size by just adding NCAA, conference tournament, and non-conference results against Power 5 teams

Groce:

32-30 Conference
9-2 Conference Tournament
3-2 NCAA's
0-5 Non-Conference Power 5

44-39 Total

Drew:

63-19 Conference
5-3 Conference Tournament
0-2 NCAA's
1-5 Non-Conference Power 5

69-29 Total


Still not close.

Another fun fact, people are mentioning that Butler leaving weakened the Horizon League, and it did, but Butler's last year in the conference was Drew's first as Head Coach, it was the year after their back-to-back Final Fours, Stevens was still the coach, and Valpo beat Butler THREE times, winning the conference outright, denying Butler their 6th consecutive conference title, and knocking them out of NCAA contention in the Horizon League tourney.
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Those stats there show one coach having his teams on a roll the end of the year and the other not. :D 12-4 vs 5-5
 
#261      

Sal Iacuzzo

S
Yonkers, NY
Sal Iacuzzo
Cubby Blue said:
actually, we were talking about his time at Ohio. 50% was correct.
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Why wouldn't we include the four years at Illinois? We are dealing in the present here, not some alternative universe where we are selecting between 2012 Groce and 2016 Drew.
 
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#262      

Cubby Blue

C
Cubby Blue
Sal Iacuzzo said:
Why wouldn't we include the four years at Illinois. We are dealing in the present here.
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Because it wasn't what we were talking about. We were talking about hiring a new coach. Comparing Drew's resume with Groce's when we hired him. It wasn't like we were leaving out Groce's Illini record to make it look better, we were just giving the view as an AD in the hiring process. :thumb:

That is when I said to me it would pretty much be making the same level hire again. That is strictly my opinion. I just think we ought to shoot a little higher if we are going to kick Groce to the curb.
 
#263      

Sal Iacuzzo

S
Yonkers, NY
Sal Iacuzzo
Foggy Notion said:
It is meaningful that he has not demonstrated the ability to win in the tournament, and that is what most fans care about the most.

The sample size on my ability to coach a team to tourney wins is also small. In fact, I have two fewer losses than Drew. Do you want to hire me as your coach?
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Do you have four outright conference titles in five years? If so you should be considered.

You are giving too much weight to a handful of games. Paul Hewitt, Bruce Weber and Mike Davis made it all the way to the title game, do you want to hire any of them?
 
#264      

Newman

N
Newman
Sal Iacuzzo said:
Do you have four outright conference titles in five years? If so you should be considered.

You are giving too much weight to a handful of games. Paul Hewitt, Bruce Weber and Mike Davis made it all the way to the title game, do you want to hire any of them?
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Is it possible that you're doing the same with his record as a coach in the horizon league, at an already well established program under his own dad?

If Whitman were to hire a new coach, I sure hope his candidates would have more proven success at the high major level.
 
#265      

Cubby Blue

C
Cubby Blue
Sal Iacuzzo said:
Do you have four outright conference titles in five years? If so you should be considered.

You are giving too much weight to a handful of games. Paul Hewitt, Bruce Weber and Mike Davis made it all the way to the title game, do you want to hire any of them?
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I think by now you would understand my stance, but I will tell you anyway. :)

I think with what Bryce was left, and the advantages Valpo has, it should win that conference easily every year. That conference is not a good one. Not at all.

I admit it, I don't put a lot of stock in his "conference record".

Sorry if that irritates you. I have said many times it is just my opinion. :D
 
#266      

Cubby Blue

C
Cubby Blue
Newman said:
Is it possible that you're doing the same with his record as a coach in the horizon league, at an already well established program under his own dad?

If Whitman were to hire a new coach, I sure hope his candidates would have more proven success at the high major level.
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You say it better than me. Your last sentence is my belief.
 
#267      

Tevo

Tevo
Wilmette, IL
Tevo
Newman said:
Is it possible that you're doing the same with his record as a coach in the horizon league, at an already well established program under his own dad?

If Whitman were to hire a new coach, I sure hope his candidates would have more proven success at the high major level.
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Then again, Whitman himself didn't have more proven success at the high major level, and I'm guessing he's pretty happy with how he's done so far...
 
#268      

Cubby Blue

C
Cubby Blue
Tevo said:
Then again, Whitman himself didn't have more proven success at the high major level, and I'm guessing he's pretty happy with how he's done so far...
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and he hired a guy that went to the Super Bowl once and was fired twice......So maybe we do get Hewitt, Weber or Mike Davis. :eek:
 
#269      

Tevo

Tevo
Wilmette, IL
Tevo
Cubby Blue said:
and he hired a guy that went to the Super Bowl once and was fired twice......So maybe we do get Hewitt, Weber or Mike Davis. :eek:
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How about Doug Collins? What's he up to these days?
 
#270      

Sal Iacuzzo

S
Yonkers, NY
Sal Iacuzzo
Newman said:
Is it possible that you're doing the same with his record as a coach in the horizon league, at an already well established program under his own dad?

If Whitman were to hire a new coach, I sure hope his candidates would have more proven success at the high major level.
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That's not really accurate Valpo went 36-36 in the five years they were in the Horizon under Homer Drew finishing no higher than 4th. Not exactly a Bo Ryan/Greg Gard situation. Groce's predecessor at Ohio actually had a better conference record than he did.

If Whitman can bring in Marshall or Archie I'm all on board.
 
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#271      

Newman

N
Newman
Sal Iacuzzo said:
That's not really accurate Valpo went 36-36 in the five years they were in the Horizon under Homer Drew finishing no higher than 4th. Not exactly a Bo Ryan/Greg Gard situation. Groce's predecessor at Ohio actually had a better conference record than he did.
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The program was already well established despite Homer Drew's last few years after stepping down for a year. It wasn't a mess, and I agree Ohio wasn't a mess either. Groce wasn't just hired for his record though.

I've stopped with the Groce and Bryce comparison mostly because it's pointless. I wouldn't mind taking a look at him but I don't think it would be the best idea to take another chance on a low-mid major coach. Whitman should be able to find better quality candidates if he decides to let Groce go. Bryce Drew shouldn't be any respectable high major's number 1 candidate. At least not at this point in his career.
 
#272      

Adnarel

A
Adnarel
StLouIllini said:
Saw them calling him that on their board. Is that in reference to Oscar the Grouch?
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Yeah. In some sort of weird team-building exercise, Bruce incorporated Sesame Street characters, for some reason. Board got a hold of this knowledge and decided that if the team was going to be Sesame Street, then Bruce had to be Oscar.

I think they've got a wordfilter on the board to enforce it, rofl.

And the title of their basketball forum right now ("Not all wins are labeled a W") is a verbatim BW quote from this season.
 
#273      

BananaShampoo

B
Captain 'Paign
Phoenix, AZ
BananaShampoo
Adnarel said:
Yeah. In some sort of weird team-building exercise, Bruce incorporated Sesame Street characters, for some reason. Board got a hold of this knowledge and decided that if the team was going to be Sesame Street, then Bruce had to be Oscar.

I think they've got a wordfilter on the board to enforce it, rofl.

And the title of their basketball forum right now ("Not all wins are labeled a W") is a verbatim BW quote from this season.
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I've read the goEMAW board and it's hilarious. Much respect to the KSU fans who maintain and post on that site. :thumb: In a lot of ways it's like deja vu over there, rehashing a lot of the same BW flaws we did on this board 4-5 years ago. I also love that they wordfilter his name to Oscar. :)
 
#274      

Newman

N
Newman
ChiCityHoops34 said:
With his .531 MAC conference record and the last four years how is Groce any respectable high major's current coach?

Do you not think Bryce Drew could produce one tournament appearance in four years or win 40% of his in conference games at Illinois? I think he could, easily.

If someone comes in and wins even half of their conference games it's a big improvement from where Groce has this program right now.
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I'm not saying that Bryce would be worse..but I'm not sold he could do better at this point in his career. Why is it so terrible to suggest that we could find better candidates? This Bryce Drew infatuation is unreal.