2017 Coaching Carousel

mattcoldagelli · Jan 23, 2017

LurkLongandProsper said:
the question then becomes how high you think the floor is. It feels like it'd have to be the NCAAT for fans to not get restless waiting for a big return on the talent.

I honestly think "tourney nearly every year" is the floor, because despite the last ten years I really do believe it is not some superhuman feat to make the field of 64 at Illinois.

Golfer63 · Jan 23, 2017

Which coaches out of our wish list do we think would be best at establishing a culture and identity for the program? I think establishing a culture will go a long way towards not only getting the program back to its winning ways, but also sustaining that success for many years to come. I look at programs like Wisconsin and Michigan State. Both have established winning cultures. It's why they are always successful no matter what type of players suit up for them year after year.

Then I look at a program like Ohio State. No real identity or culture. They just happened to recruit at an extremely high level for a period of time, which led them to going on a great four year run. Now they have completely fallen back to earth and are middle of the pack at best. I'm beginning to think this is Groce's problem. He tried to build our program the same way that Ohio State was built, which can be successful for a period of time, but there's no guarantees of it being sustained long term.

We need a coach who can establish a culture like Michigan State or Wisconsin have first, then we can worry about trying to lock up the big dog recruits.

Second and Chalmers · Jan 23, 2017

LurkLongandProsper said:
247 shows him as a 4 star, cited source, you can take a look yourself. There are articles supporting your point, I'm just reporting what 247 has listed.

That's because you're looking at the composite rating, which only includes Stokes in 3 of the 4 rankings used. That's what those little dots below the stars mean.

He was a 5 star by everyone who included him in rankings, but some didn't because by the time his high school class graduated, he had already completed his freshman year of eligibility at Tennessee.

DrewD007 · Jan 23, 2017

St. Louis Post-Dispatch article discussing potential replacements at Mizzou. Lot of names that have popped up here.

blmillini · Jan 23, 2017

Golfer63 said:
Which coaches out of our wish list do we think would be best at establishing a culture and identity for the program? I think establishing a culture will go a long way towards not only getting the program back to its winning ways, but also sustaining that success for many years to come. I look at programs like Wisconsin and Michigan State. Both have established winning cultures. It's why they are always successful no matter what type of players suit up for them year after year.

Then I look at a program like Ohio State. No real identity or culture. They just happened to recruit at an extremely high level for a period of time, which led them to going on a great four year run. Now they have completely fallen back to earth and are middle of the pack at best. I'm beginning to think this is Groce's problem. He tried to build our program the same way that Ohio State was built, which can be successful for a period of time, but there's no guarantees of it being sustained long term.

We need a coach who can establish a culture like Michigan State or Wisconsin have first, then we can worry about trying to lock up the big dog recruits.

I personally think you are on to something. I don't believe Matta is a great coach. I believe he was just fortunate enough to have recruited a number of players that were simply phenomenal talents and those players were talented enough to carry OSU to the level they were for a few years. Unfortunately, unless you are Duke or Kansas, you are simply not going to get that kind of talent year after year and without that talent, development and coaching become critical. Unfortunately, I believe Matta and Groce are both guys that depend far too much on the players they recruit already having the superior talent and are not equipped to develop it.

MadSeason · Jan 23, 2017

K

Golfer63 said:
Which coaches out of our wish list do we think would be best at establishing a culture and identity for the program? I think establishing a culture will go a long way towards not only getting the program back to its winning ways, but also sustaining that success for many years to come. I look at programs like Wisconsin and Michigan State. Both have established winning cultures. It's why they are always successful no matter what type of players suit up for them year after year.

Then I look at a program like Ohio State. No real identity or culture. They just happened to recruit at an extremely high level for a period of time, which led them to going on a great four year run. Now they have completely fallen back to earth and are middle of the pack at best. I'm beginning to think this is Groce's problem. He tried to build our program the same way that Ohio State was built, which can be successful for a period of time, but there's no guarantees of it being sustained long term.

We need a coach who can establish a culture like Michigan State or Wisconsin have first, then we can worry about trying to lock up the big dog recruits.

I would take the Matta model and results in a heartbeat. It was much longer than 4 years btw.

There aren't many Tom Izzo's and Bo Ryan's out there. Especially Izzo.

Fortunately there are a few more Matta's, Self's and Calipari's. There are many ways to skin a cat so I think you don't want to box yourself in looking for next Izzo.

Golfer63 · Jan 23, 2017

blmillini said:
I personally think you are on to something. I don't believe Matta is a great coach. I believe he was just fortunate enough to have recruited a number of players that were simply phenomenal talents and those players were talented enough to carry OSU to the level they were for a few years. Unfortunately, unless you are Duke or Kansas, you are simply not going to get that kind of talent year after year and without that talent, development and coaching become critical. Unfortunately, I believe Matta and Groce are both guys that depend far too much on the players they recruit already having the superior talent and are not equipped to develop it.

It also helped that they had important glue guys like Aaron Craft during that run. It's important to have guys that you love if they are on your team and you hate if you're a fan of another team. Lucas Johnson was that guy for us back in the early 2000s. I do believe that Leron and Kipper can be those type of guys for the current team.

Golfer63 · Jan 23, 2017

MadSeason said:
I would take the Matta model and results in a heartbeat. It was much longer than 4 years btw.

There aren't many Tom Izzo's and Bo Ryan's out there. Especially Izzo.

Fortunately there are a few more Matta's, Self's and Calipari's. Thereare many ways to skin a cat

If you are implying that it started with the Oden, Conley team, there was a two year window in there where they weren't very good. Still recruited well but didn't pan out. After reaching the championship in 07, they followed that up with an NIT appearance the following year then they barely squeaked into the tourney the year after as an 8 seed and got bounced in the first round. They went on a great four year run after that.

I'm not disagreeing with wanting Matta's results during that run. The point I'm trying to make is that I don't just simply want a 4-5 year run where we are a top 10 program in the country and then fall back to earth the way that OSU has the past few years.

mattcoldagelli · Jan 23, 2017

blmillini said:
I personally think you are on to something. I don't believe Matta is a great coach. I believe he was just fortunate enough to have recruited a number of players that were simply phenomenal talents and those players were talented enough to carry OSU to the level they were for a few years.

C'mon guys. Matta won the B1G in '06 with none of his own guys and a starting lineup that netted a grand total of zero NBA minutes. His worst conference record is 8-8, and that was his first year, when they were on probation.

Second and Chalmers · Jan 23, 2017

mattcoldagelli said:
The thinking (my thinking, anyway) is he stays pretty much the same, and you subtract the from-the-start opposition at Tennessee or the institutional disinterest of Cal, and add hometown familiarity and a conference that is a bit more predisposed towards his preferred style of play.

I don't have any idea how you'd quantify it, but it feels like a lot of hurdles get pulled off the track.

I guess I just feel like those factors kind of fall away once you've got your roster, you're in the gym and its your team.

The situations Cuonzo has been in suggest that he might have been forgiven for having trouble putting together good rosters that fit what he was doing quickly. But from everything I can see, it seems like he managed to do that anyway.

I don't see what about those situations explains the underperformance with those rosters.

It must be said though, that evidence also indicates he could be a monster recruiter here. I just.....that scares me. I want Illinois basketball's fate to be decided on my TV screen, not my laptop, if that makes sense.

WesterveltVictoryCigar · Jan 23, 2017

Golfer63 said:
If you are implying that it started with the Oden, Conley team, there was a two year window in there where they weren't very good. Still recruited well but didn't pan out. After reaching the championship in 07, they followed that up with an NIT appearance the following year then they barely squeaked into the tourney the year after as an 8 seed and got bounced in the first round. They went on a great four year run after that.

I'm not disagreeing with wanting Matta's results during that run. The point I'm trying to make is that I don't just simply want a 4-5 year run where we are a top 10 program in the country and then fall back to earth the way that OSU has the past few years.

That's a strange way to look at Matta's time at Ohio St. 24 or more wins in 9 of 12 seasons and a 1 or 2 NCAA seed in 6 of those 12.

Yeah, we want to avoid that kind of disaster for sure.

Golfer63 · Jan 23, 2017

mattcoldagelli said:
C'mon guys. Matta won the B1G in '06 with none of his own guys and a starting lineup that netted a grand total of zero NBA minutes. His worst conference record is 8-8, and that was his first year, when they were on probation.

He has arguably more talent on this year's roster than his 06 roster, and look where they are - T13th in the league. My point is, do we want Illinois to get back to where they were 12-15 year ago, peak after a few years and then fall back to earth, or do we want Illinois to get there and stay there for many years to come the way Michigan State and Wisconsin has.

If we get the right coach who can build the right foundation, there's no reason why we can't be a program whose floor is just simply getting to the tournament, and ceiling being FF and NC contender.

Second and Chalmers · Jan 23, 2017

DrewD007 said:
St. Louis Post-Dispatch article discussing potential replacements at Mizzou. Lot of names that have popped up here.

Lorenzo Romar to Mizzou?

ray:

Golfer63 · Jan 23, 2017

WesterveltVictoryCigar said:
That's a strange way to look at Matta's time at Ohio St. 24 or more wins in 9 of 12 seasons and a 1 or 2 NCAA seed in 6 of those 12.

Yeah, we want to avoid that kind of disaster for sure.

Again, my point is they are no longer the top 10-15 program they were a few years ago. They are on their way to missing two straight NCAA tournaments, and there is no sign that they are recruiting at the level they once were so the chances of them returning to the level they were at a few years ago is unlikely.

mattcoldagelli · Jan 23, 2017

Golfer63 said:
He has arguably more talent on this year's roster than his 06 roster, and look where they are - T13th in the league. My point is, do we want Illinois to get back to where they were 12-15 year ago, peak after a few years and then fall back to earth, or do we want Illinois to get there and stay there for many years to come the way Michigan State and Wisconsin has.

If we get the right coach who can build the right foundation, there's no reason why we can't be a program whose floor is just simply getting to the tournament, and ceiling being FF and NC contender.

If Thad Matta took our job tomorrow, I would throw a party. You would, apparently, decline the invite.

Golfer63 · Jan 23, 2017

Second and Chalmers said:
Lorenzo Romar to Mizzou? ray:

Good, they will have a few really good seasons with him initially, then they will peak and be a perennial bubble team every year after that. I'll take it as an Illini fan.

StateFarmCenter · Jan 23, 2017

Golfer63 said:
Good, they will have a few really good seasons with him initially, then they will peak and be a perennial bubble team every year after that. I'll take it as an Illini fan.

I don't think they'd ever be any good, but I still don't want him there. He'd crush it on the recruiting trail most likely, leaves less for us.

Golfer63 · Jan 23, 2017

mattcoldagelli said:
If Thad Matta took our job tomorrow, I would throw a party. You would, apparently, decline the invite.

If he was allowed to hire Groce as his lead recruiter, I'd be right there with you at the party. That was when their recruiting success was at its peak.

WesterveltVictoryCigar · Jan 23, 2017

Golfer63 said:
Again, my point is they are no longer the top 10-15 program they were a few years ago. They are on their way to missing two straight NCAA tournaments, and there is no sign that they are recruiting at the level they once were so the chances of them returning to the level they were at a few years ago is unlikely.

His 2015 recruiting class was a disaster which has hurt them for sure. Even so, hardly a reason to turn up your nose at what he's done there. It's arguably a better run than Illinois has ever had.

Obelix · Jan 23, 2017

MadSeason said:
There aren't many Tom Izzo's and Bo Ryan's out there. Especially Izzo.

Fortunately there are a few more Matta's, Self's and Calipari's. There are many ways to skin a cat so I think you don't want to box yourself in looking for next Izzo.

Plus Izzo gets talent, he may not get the talent that Cal gets at UK, or Self at KU, or K at Duke, but he always got very talented players and good numbers for B1G level. Even if you get Cal (i.e., an exceptional recruiter), you will not be able to get the numbers and recruits he gets at UK. But an exceptional recruiter will at least get you closer to the talent Izzo gets.

The assertion that we will get a very good X's and O's coach who will build a consistent winner at Illinois without necessarily being a great recruiter is just a fallacy.

As I said in previous post, people preach X's and O's but then secretly dream of top recruits coming our way. There is not much to support the assertion that Cuonzo Martin, for example (who I like), is a great X's and O's coach. But if he can get the talent at UI, he can be just good enough to become successful at Illinois.

Sleepy Floyd · Jan 23, 2017

Golfer63 said:
If he was allowed to hire Groce as his lead recruiter, I'd be right there with you at the party. That was when their recruiting success was at its peak.

The reason he got Oden, Connelly and lightly is because Indiana was awful.

Obelix · Jan 23, 2017

Golfer63 said:
If he was allowed to hire Groce as his lead recruiter, I'd be right there with you at the party. That was when their recruiting success was at its peak.

Assistants help, some more than others. But eventually it is always the head coach who defines the program.

MadSeason · Jan 23, 2017

Obelix said:
Plus Izzo gets talent, he may not get the talent that Cal gets at UK, or Self at KU, or K at Duke, but he always got very talented players and good numbers for B1G level. Even if you get Cal (i.e., an exceptional recruiter), you will not be able to get the numbers and recruits he gets at UK. But an exceptional recruiter will at least get you closer to the talent Izzo gets.

The assertion that we will get a very good X's and O's coach who will build a consistent winner at Illinois without necessarily being a great recruiter is just a fallacy.

As I said in previous post, people preach X's and O's but then secretly dream of top recruits coming our way. There is not much to support the assertion that Cuonzo Martin, for example (who I like), is a great X's and O's coach. But if he can get the talent at UI, he can be just good enough to become successful at Illinois.

Agreed on all points.

Second and Chalmers · Jan 23, 2017

Obelix said:
The assertion that we will get a very good X's and O's coach who will build a consistent winner at Illinois without necessarily being a great recruiter is just a fallacy.

As is the assertion that we will get a very good recruiter who will build a consistent winner at Illinois without necessarily being a great X's and O's coach.

It's both. And there's more to it than just those two things as well.

mattcoldagelli · Jan 23, 2017

Obelix said:
As I said in previous post, people preach X's and O's but then secretly dream of top recruits coming our way. There is not much to support the assertion that Cuonzo Martin, for example (who I like), is a great X's and O's coach. But if he can get the talent at UI, he can be just good enough to become successful at Illinois.

And degree matters too, you know? Like, John Groce is recruiting decently, but is turning out to be possibly league-worst when it comes to the in-season part of the job. Someone who was even just above average (not great) would be having a different season than the one we're having.

2017 Coaching Carousel

Kicking it with Fat Lever