Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
- Bloomington, IL
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2017 Coaching Carousel
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:tsk: His seat better be so hot he can't sit down.
I've given Groce every opportunity and my patience has worn out. He no longer has the injured excuse. This is the team that he wanted and we arent even close to where an Illinois basketball team should be.
I can't get over the fact that Coach Groce literally does not know how to break a press. It became very evident during the WV game. Without even bringing up having the talent needed to break a press with guard play, every coach should know how to break a press and Coach Groce's way of going about it doesn't work. Absolutely inexcusable and im tired of watching it. If this is that obvious to me, then I know it's also clear to Whitman.
Time for a change
I can't get over the fact that Coach Groce literally does not know how to break a press. It became very evident during the WV game. Without even bringing up having the talent needed to break a press with guard play, every coach should know how to break a press and Coach Groce's way of going about it doesn't work. Absolutely inexcusable and im tired of watching it. If this is that obvious to me, then I know it's also clear to Whitman.
Time for a change
That is a problem exacerbated by having two back to back coaches who couldn't win. With so many historic lows, we need a homerun hire or we risk stooping even lower. I'd be perfectly fine with JW making that decision at the end of the season if Groce doesn't make the dance, but I'd be skeptical about us being successful in the first couple of seasons. I can be patient but will the majority of the fanbase be as well?
Even with a home run hire we risk stooping even lower.
The marginal difference in terms of future win expectancy between, say, Archie Miller and Kevin Keatts is not that high.
Find the right guy. It's not more complicated than that. The right coach is going to do the things the right coach would do.
Illinois, and most major conference programs, will not make a "non-coach" their head-coach, so Kendall and others will not even be in the conversation.
I've got a better record than JeffJ
S&C, don't you have some sort of awesome analysis of attendance for us? I am looking forward to it.
As far as Groce and the '17 class goes, if he can't win with this talent, he won't win with better talent. And even if he does win with our 5* center, that means it would take 5* level talent every year for us to win and Groce isn't going to get that every year.
He has more than enough talent/experience to be a tourney team and top half of the B1G. He just needs to show it.
If he doesn't, you fire him, and hope the new guy can come in and retain at least 3 of our recruits. Let's not throw good money after bad.
Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
- Bloomington, IL
I don't believe KG has any coaching experience whatsoever. You don't hand over the reins of a P5 program to a guy who has never coached at any level, regardless of how beloved he is by the fanbase. A lot of posters have submitted former players as candidates should JG be moved on, but there's not a single former player who has the resume to take over a P5 program, particularly one in the condition ours is in.
IMO, we need one of 2 things:
1. A big-name "home-run" hire who can set recruiting on its ear (i.e. a "Lovie" type splash hire)
2. A proven program builder who has established recruiting ties and a proven record of coaching up guys and (i.e. a Matta, Izzo, or Kruger type guy)
The fanbase will warm quickly to a guy who wins by season 2. For precedence, see Weber, Bruce.
I get the argument: you believe the coach can turn it around, you have a solid class already signed, let it play out. On the margins, I might even agree with it. But rebuilds are rarely pain free, and the longer you leave it, the worse it gets. If he were getting to the dance and under-performing, you'd have a case. But the results are such that a number of coaches are doing better with a tiny fraction of the resources of Illinois.
I just don't see the value in delay, once you have a picture of what you've got, and the only thing you have to sell is modest improvement and hope.
Ask yourself this: we made a run at coaches in the last search that were in the $3 mil range. When that didn't work out, we took a chance on a promising young coach that just had a S16 tourney run. Do you really think that staying the course is the best play for the best overall result?
Maybe, but since he's never coached at any level we don't know. I certainly hope Whitman isn't going to take that kind of gamble with the program.
:wave:
A bad plumber knows a lot more than a non-plumber.
Coaching is a profession. Like any profession it takes training.
I am not sure I understand your argument with Kendall. There are plenty of coaches. We will select a coach, not a non-coach.
Question for those of you who have followed the ins and outs of recruiting for years:
What are the chances most of our guys stick with their LOIs if Groce is fired, but we hire a fairly exciting replacement?
I know there is probably a lot of variance here, but I'm just curious if there is a historical norm about committed players and new coaches. Something like "the OK recruits usually stay, the good recruits are 50/50, and the great recruits usually reopen".... or something like that.
What are the chances most of our guys stick with their LOIs if Groce is fired, but we hire a fairly exciting replacement?
I know there is probably a lot of variance here, but I'm just curious if there is a historical norm about committed players and new coaches. Something like "the OK recruits usually stay, the good recruits are 50/50, and the great recruits usually reopen".... or something like that.
He doesn't seem like Whitman's cup of tea, and I'm dubious that he would want the job, but I feel like Mark Jackson's name should be mentioned.
I agree with the rest of your post, but not sure I understand this one. What other options are there? We'll go after the "hot" names and throw money at them. If that does not work, we'll take a chance with a promising young coach. What else can you do?
They stay more often than you'd think, but you're right, there is a ton of variance.
Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
- Bloomington, IL
I am not worried about the fan base.. we are all to fair weathered..
I am worried more about recruits and perception. Why would a Jabari Parker want to play for Archie Miller? ( don't get me wrong I think he is a good coach). I seriously think we need the next HC to be someone HS recruits know and would immediately be drawn to..
I just want to look at it from another direction that most here..
Kendall Gill doesn't fit that criteria, nor does nearly any former Illini player with the exception of D-Will and maybe Dee. Jabari-type players (BTW, Jabari's in the NBA now, so not sure why he's our litmus test) want to play for coaches who will increase their draft stock, which is why the same 6 coaches generally get that caliber of player.
D-Will and Dee will not even be in the conversation either.
Hoiberg was briefly an assistant coach with the T'Wolves, but had to leave for awhile and then take a front office job because of his health problems.
But both late in his playing career and during his front office time, he was always a quasi-coach.
The same was true of Steve Kerr when he played for Gregg Popovich with the Spurs, and he was also an NBA GM for several years.
Kendall has none of those qualifications. He has been out of basketball for 11 years, and has only dabbled in studio analysis since then, a stint most notable for him being fired for getting in a fight with a coworker.
I don't reject the Jerrance Howard idea out of hand, but other than him, there is not another Illinois alum qualified to take on the position, end of story.
Hoiberg has a short stint on the Timberwolves on their coaching staff, but soon joined their front office. He was a long shot indeed. There are some others that had been rumored (specifically Jay Bilas) over the years but that was more rumors than personal desire. Assistants or head coaches in the NBA are fair game. But not someone like Gill who is not.
Kendall will not even be in the conversation, neither will D-Will or Dee. But if you believe they will, that is OK.
Bingo
Joel Goodson
- dawgville
Not just any coworker, the smug jack$$$ that is Tim Doyle. Not suggesting Gill was justified, just that his actions were a whole lot more understandable when you consider the source.
I am not worried about the fan base.. we are all to fair weathered..
I am worried more about recruits and perception. Why would a Jabari Parker want to play for Archie Miller? ( don't get me wrong I think he is a good coach). I seriously think we need the next HC to be someone HS recruits know and would immediately be drawn to..
I just want to look at it from another direction that most here..
Why do you think HS recruits would be drawn to or know about someone whose NBA career ended when they were in diapers?
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