2017 Coaching Carousel

mattcoldagelli · Feb 8, 2017

It's kind of a self-defeating argument that a coach who couldn't figure out some of the most basic elements needed for his rotation until February 7 should then be able to reap whatever rewards that rotation change might bring.

OrangeAndBlues · Feb 8, 2017

mattcoldagelli said:
It's kind of a self-defeating argument that a coach who couldn't figure out some of the most basic elements needed for his rotation until February 7 should then be able to reap whatever rewards that rotation change might bring.

Thank you. Stop this nonsense. He is gone. Whitman is not "looking for any excuse to keep him." The gears are already in motion and keeping him will TANK attendance next year.

You don't reward someone for being terrible at a job for 3/4 of that year and then getting a little lucky at the end. He is a bad coach. We deserve better.

HC Illini · Feb 8, 2017

Kathy said:
Let me just say that I don't think Groce will be let go this year! I think he'll be given another year for two reasons: 1. Recruiting class coming in and 2. if the team plays like they did last night. Even if we don't many of the remaining games, if we play exciting BB, I think he gets another year.

I'm not saying it's what I want personally.

If he somehow makes the tourney he is most definitely staying. Although, I don't think there is any chance that happens. The problem with this team has been consistency, I don't think this team will play like they did last night vs Penn State let alone the rest of the season. But the last time Groce made the tourney he started the conference 2-7 so you never know!

Vermilion Slim · Feb 8, 2017

I've been in and out of this thread for the better part of a year and there is a name I've not heard mentioned too much (sorry if I missed it):

King Rice

He's got Monmouth Rolling again this year (currently 20-5), spent time at Illinois State as an assistant, worked under Kevin Stallings for many years, and has an interesting personal story:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bn_xocAN7W4

I'd be interested for those who are on the Keatts hype train to comment and compare. It might just be that might skin crawls with the thought of any association to Pitino, but I actually think I'd be more excited with Rice representing our university than Keatts.

golferjohn1970 · Feb 8, 2017

What else does JW need to see?

coryfor3 said:
He was. It is amazing how much a win can do for a coach. If he can put together a string of wins here, he will be retained. I think Whitman is looking for a reason to stick with him rather than looking for justification for a firing. Thomas was looking for justification to fire Weber and everyone was fine with it. This is an opposite situation. There is a lot invested in Groce at this point and there wouldn't really be a whole lot to lose at this point by keeping him another year if there is a decent reason for it. Groce would get a chance to coach his recruits and see if his other guys can make a leap in performance (Lucas, Black, Finke, Jordan, etc.) He's signed through 2018-2019. If things pick up next year, he gets a short extension. If not, he could be fired. It really all depends on how the end of this season goes. I don't think anything has been decided yet.

While I agree that JW probably has not made that final decision to fire Groce or not when does that decision get made? Does it happen when they get to 10-11 losses in the B1G? I agree that he is probably holding out hope that this team catches fire maybe wins 5 of the last 6 and gets to 9-9 at least but is that enough? Groce in 5 seasons has never had a winning B1G record how could he keep him? If they lose on Saturday at home against Penn State that does it for me its over and no looking back the decision is made and Groce is gone after the BTT. If they win then you delay that a decision to see how the next few games go if they lose then he is gone at that point.

IlliniOllie · Feb 8, 2017

89illinigrad said:
Like Kathy, last night gave me a faint glimmer of hope, albeit a small one.

For all of you, including me, who think Groce will be gone after this year, what would it take for Groce to salvage his job at this point?

I'd say, if he wins out, wins a couple games in the BTT and somehow manages to get into the NCAA tourney, he will probably keep his job.

However, those are some pretty big IF's.

Win the national title in the NCAA Tournament = extension. Anything less, fired.

WesterveltVictoryCigar · Feb 8, 2017

coryfor3 said:
Groce would get a chance to coach his recruits

He's coaching his recruits right now. This is his deepest and most talented team and we have a pretty good idea of what his ceiling is. There's no reason to wait and see what next year brings with what will be a less talented/experienced roster.

Tygor · Feb 8, 2017

IlliniOllie said:
Win the national title in the NCAA Tournament = extension. Anything less, fired.

Sounds like you are a bit over the top on this for dramatic effect. If Groce somehow leads this team to finish 10-8, win a couple games in the BTT and wins a NCAA tournament game, Whitman probably keeps him whether we like it or not. By your logic, if he loses in the NC game he's still fired?

Obelix · Feb 8, 2017

WesterveltVictoryCigar said:
There's no reason to wait and see what next year brings with what will be a less talented/experienced roster.

Definitely less experienced but I am not sure the roster will be less talented (including freshmen) no matter who the coach will be.

golferjohn1970 · Feb 8, 2017

JW has not let Groce know anything yet

Kajagoogoo said:
Incorrect, but kudos on your (misplaced) optimism. Whitman has basically let Groce and his staff know that they're gone. You can't then reward the coach for "turning it around" and "making the season respectable" as I've seen some allude to here. It should've never gotten to the point that the season needed turning around, and this team should've waltzed into the NCAA Tourney easily.

The fact that didn't/won't happen is a huge indictment on Groce. There's no saving him now, short of not losing another game until the B1G finals (likely). And that ain't happening. He's gone. Whitman already has the wheels in motion. He's smart enough to not let one win over an average Northwestern team missing their leading scorer affect his judgment of this staff.

I completely disagree that JW has hinted to Groce that he and his staff are done that's not how AD's work. That day maybe coming soon and Groce may realize it as well but JW wouldn't do that to Groce or his staff that isn't the professional way to go about it. He might let him know before the BTT but that would be about the earliest it happens IMO. I agree that JW is doing work behind the scenes on who the next coach is going to be but that is separate from letting Groce know he is gone.

LurkLongandProsper · Feb 8, 2017

HC Illini said:
If he somehow makes the tourney he is most definitely staying. Although, I don't think there is any chance that happens. The problem with this team has been consistency, I don't think this team will play like they did last night vs Penn State let alone the rest of the season. But the last time Groce made the tourney he started the conference 2-7 so you never know!

His first year, they were something like #10 entering conference play, with a Maui invite win, @ Gonzaga win, etc. ENTIRELY different scenario. We also beat #1 IU to get to 3-7, iirc. We don't have a tournament resume right now, we seriously would have to rattle off something like a 9 game streak (including last night) to get in.

In short, Groce is done. We all knew that after Minnesota. Wins from here on out are to be celebrated for the players, but not going to save John Groce.

golferjohn1970 · Feb 8, 2017

Tourney or bust

Tygor said:
Sounds like you are a bit over the top on this for dramatic effect. If Groce somehow leads this team to finish 10-8, win a couple games in the BTT and wins a NCAA tournament game, Whitman probably keeps him whether we like it or not. By your logic, if he loses in the NC game he's still fired?

I agree with Tygor if they make the tourney he is back next year especially with the class and possibly Mark Smith coming here. Anything less then that he is gone its either or at this point and Groce knew it.

OrangeAndBlues · Feb 8, 2017

golferjohn1970 said:
I agree with Tygor if they make the tourney he is back next year especially with the class and possibly Mark Smith coming here. Anything less then that he is gone its either or at this point and Groce knew it.

Holy cow, people.

He is gone regardless. They are not making the tournament. And if Groce is back there is NO WAY Smith is coming here. This is fairytale territory.

WesterveltVictoryCigar · Feb 8, 2017

Obelix said:
Definitely less experienced but I am not sure the roster will be less talented (including freshmen) no matter who the coach will be.

That's why I included both talent and experience. For the season we're talking about giving him, it's unlikely to match what he has right now.

IlliniOllie · Feb 8, 2017

Kathy said:
Let me just say that I don't think Groce will be let go this year! I think he'll be given another year for two reasons: 1. Recruiting class coming in and 2. if the team plays like they did last night. Even if we don't many of the remaining games, if we play exciting BB, I think he gets another year.

I'm not saying it's what I want personally.

It's a good recruiting class, but it's not like this is the Fab Five or like we've signed a national top-five player. It's Tilmon and some borderline Top-100 guys. It's nice, but it's not it's some absurdly great class that's a job-saver.

(And even if it was, what would this coaching staff really get out of them, anyways? No thanks.)

golferjohn1970 · Feb 8, 2017

Does tourney = return?

OrangeAndBlues said:
Holy cow, people.

He is gone regardless. They are not making the tournament. And if Groce is back there is NO WAY Smith is coming here. This is fairytale territory.

So are you saying for argument sake if they get to 9-9 and win two BTT games and sneek into the dance that he is still gone? I don't buy it I think JW gives him next year with his recruits to see how it plays out. I agree it is a moot point they may win Saturday but they will lose at Iowa and probably against MSU and Nebraska so that will end it.

IlliniOllie · Feb 8, 2017

Tygor said:
Sounds like you are a bit over the top on this for dramatic effect. If Groce somehow leads this team to finish 10-8, win a couple games in the BTT and wins a NCAA tournament game, Whitman probably keeps him whether we like it or not. By your logic, if he loses in the NC game he's still fired?

I might be exaggerating, but only slightly. Winning a few games in the NCAA Tournament was a big part of what got John Groce this job in the first place. It's too small of a sample size to overcome what's happened over the last 4 years.

LurkLongandProsper · Feb 8, 2017

Vermilion Slim said:
I've been in and out of this thread for the better part of a year and there is a name I've not heard mentioned too much (sorry if I missed it):

King Rice

He's got Monmouth Rolling again this year (currently 20-5), spent time at Illinois State as an assistant, worked under Kevin Stallings for many years, and has an interesting personal story:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bn_xocAN7W4

I'd be interested for those who are on the Keatts hype train to comment and compare. It might just be that might skin crawls with the thought of any association to Pitino, but I actually think I'd be more excited with Rice representing our university than Keatts.

Rice is Keatts with less results. He's been at Monmouth for 6 years in bad conferences (they changed conference after his 2nd year) and just won a conference title for the first time last year (lost conf tourney, though). He's done a really nice job at Monmouth, and to be fair to him, they had a case for an at-large bid, which is a big time feat for a school like Monmouth, but I don't think he's done enough to warrant this job (yet). I do expect him to get offers soon, just not here.

OrangeKrus28 said:
In a lower level conference that just lost VCU, George Mason, and ODU within the last 5 years? Any respectable coach could do that. There's a difference between being a respectable coach and a savior. He's not the savior, I can assure you of that. What Jim Larranaga did was way more impressive considering that he took Mason to a final 4 and did so while beating the likes of ODU and VCU, who were perennial mid major powers on a yearly basis to get to that point.

On that previous note, still waiting for that list of all of the "respectable coaches" who have taken over really bad teams and won a conference title in year one from Orangekrus28...

golferjohn1970 said:
I completely disagree that JW has hinted to Groce that he and his staff are done that's not how AD's work. That day maybe coming soon and Groce may realize it as well but JW wouldn't do that to Groce or his staff that isn't the professional way to go about it. He might let him know before the BTT but that would be about the earliest it happens IMO. I agree that JW is doing work behind the scenes on who the next coach is going to be but that is separate from letting Groce know he is gone.

Whitman doesn't even need to tell Groce. Groce knows it, everybody knows it.

OrangeAndBlues · Feb 8, 2017

golferjohn1970 said:
So are you saying for argument sake if they get to 9-9 and win two BTT games and sneek into the dance that he is still gone? I don't buy it I think JW gives him next year with his recruits to see how it plays out. I agree it is a moot point they may win Saturday but they will lose at Iowa and probably against MSU and Nebraska so that will end it.

Yes, absolutely he is still gone. Did everyone get zapped by the Men In Black memory eraser or something? He is gone. It's not even close.

Illiniwek06 · Feb 8, 2017

mattcoldagelli said:
It's kind of a self-defeating argument that a coach who couldn't figure out some of the most basic elements needed for his rotation until February 7 should then be able to reap whatever rewards that rotation change might bring.

This.

golferjohn1970 · Feb 8, 2017

Top Ten class

IlliniOllie said:
It's a good recruiting class, but it's not like this is the Fab Five or like we've signed a national top-five player. It's Tilmon and some borderline Top-100 guys. It's nice, but it's not it's some absurdly great class that's a job-saver.

(And even if it was, what would this coaching staff really get out of them, anyways? No thanks.)

This might be the best recruiting class that Illinois has had since maybe 2002 when they got Dee and Deron Williams. Tilmon is a top 30 player and Frazier is a top 100 guy and Williams is not to far from that. This is a top 10 class and for Illinois that says a lot. I think that coupled with going to the tourney saves his job for one more year.

MadSeason · Feb 8, 2017

LurkLongandProsper said:
His first year, they were something like #10 entering conference play, with a Maui invite win, @ Gonzaga win, etc. ENTIRELY different scenario. We also beat #1 IU to get to 3-7, iirc. We don't have a tournament resume right now, we seriously would have to rattle off something like a 9 game streak (including last night) to get in.

In short, Groce is done. We all knew that after Minnesota. Wins from here on out are to be celebrated for the players, but not going to save John Groce.

I think he's gone too and i don't think this team can sustain a win streak but I dont think we are as far out of tourney consideration as you do however. We are buoyed by strong strength of schedule and our RPI jumped double digits after last night into the 50's. Win 5 of 6 and I think we are on bubble heading into BTT.

But i dont think we will win 5 of 6

OrangeAndBlues · Feb 8, 2017

golferjohn1970 said:
This might be the best recruiting class that Illinois has had since maybe 2002 when they got Dee and Deron Williams. Tilmon is a top 30 player and Frazier is a top 100 guy and Williams is not to far from that. This is a top 10 class and for Illinois that says a lot. I think that coupled with going to the tourney saves his job for one more year.

Tilmon is not going to be Michael Jordan next year. We've been over this already, it takes time for bigs to develop. It's not that great of a recruiting class. It's pretty good. It will not save his job, he can't do anything with them.

This is turning into a silly argument. If you don't think Whitman is already working on his short list, I don't know what to tell you.

bombayIllini · Feb 8, 2017

The NW game should be the minimum level at which they play. IF they play consistently at that level, for the remainder of the games, I do see Groce here next year.

As I have posted earlier, the problem with Groce is he relies too much on older kids and not so much on talent. Kipper could not play until the second semester, that was a given. But IMHO he should have allowed Lucas to play much earlier, instead of depending on either Tracy or Tate (not a knock on these two fine players). But Lucas is far better than them (more to that).

Grove has essentially, belatedly, found out playing talent helps. Over coaching does not.

golferjohn1970 · Feb 8, 2017

OrangeAndBlues said:
Tilmon is not going to be Michael Jordan next year. We've been over this already, it takes time for bigs to develop. It's not that great of a recruiting class. It's pretty good. It will not save his job, he can't do anything with them.

This is turning into a silly argument. If you don't think Whitman is already working on his short list, I don't know what to tell you.

I agree with you that JW is putting together a short list he would be crazy not too but I don't think the decision to fire Groce has been made yet. Now that decision creeps closer with every loss and once they get to 10 losses the hatchet comes down on Groce for sure. I think even at 9-9 short of getting to the BTT final game they aren't making the tourney.