2017 Coaching Carousel

LurkLongandProsper · Feb 8, 2017

golferjohn1970 said:
So who are your top 5 candidates?

Realistic? I think we've all re-hashed the Cuonzo/Keatts/Archie list enough, I am not afraid of the Monty Williams experiment, and I don't think there's anything close to a consensus for 4/5. I don't view guys like Bennett/Mack/Cronin/etc as realistic, at least until there's real smoke there. So cop out, I have a top 4, after that, give me mystery wildcard previously unnamed by us coach for 5th

OrangeKrus28 said:
Hopefully not Keatts. I think I provided enough evidence to support Keatts being a poor defensive head coach. If his superior talent in the CAA cannot slow down those team's defenses, then he has no shot in the B10. Even Groce's team's defense this year is better than what Keatts brings to the table. His offense will get exposed by better coaching. It's really not that hard to figure out. Unless he has a Lonzo Ball clone playing for him, his scheme will get exposed in the B10.

Superior CAA talent? Where are you getting that from? Go look at his recruiting classes there. Nothing really indicating his talent level there is way better than the rest of the CAA. I conveniently compiled them for everyone here (along with a bunch of other coaching data), please use it. (Updates coming soon.)

And we've already talked about the massive difference in offensive proficiency there compared to ours for a marginal defensive drop, so...

golferjohn1970 · Feb 8, 2017

OrangeKrus28 said:
Hopefully not Keatts. I think I provided enough evidence to support Keatts being a poor defensive head coach. If his superior talent in the CAA cannot slow down those team's defenses, then he has no shot in the B10. Even Groce's team's defense this year is better than what Keatts brings to the table. His offense will get exposed by better coaching. It's really not that hard to figure out. Unless he has a Lonzo Ball clone playing for him, his scheme will get exposed in the B10.

I'm not sold that Keatts is a bad defensive coach I looked up their teams games and only 7 times has his team allowed 80 points or more. They won a lot of games by 15 or more points so some of those games they might have had the 2nd unit in there who knows. It would be refreshing to have a coach that is good at coaching scoring and offensive efficiency and just wins games period.

Illiniwek06 · Feb 8, 2017

OrangeKrus28 said:
Hopefully not Keatts. I think I provided enough evidence to support Keatts being a poor defensive head coach. If his superior talent in the CAA cannot slow down those team's defenses, then he has no shot in the B10. Even Groce's team's defense this year is better than what Keatts brings to the table. His offense will get exposed by better coaching. It's really not that hard to figure out. Unless he has a Lonzo Ball clone playing for him, his scheme will get exposed in the B10.

No, you really haven't proven anything. You assert that he has no shot in the B1G and will be exposed without any support. LurkLong (I think) provided a rebuttal to your contention, pointing out that 1) if your team is strong offensively, elite defense is not a requirement for success, and 2) those stats don't necessarily translate from old to new teams.

However, since you're stuck on those defensive stats, how do you feel about UNCW finishing 110/351 a year ago? Just behind tourney teams IU, USC and ahead of Miami FL, Texas, Utah, and Pitt?

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/defensive-efficiency?date=2016-04-05

Edit: for reference, Illinois ranked 239/351.

OrangeKrus28 · Feb 8, 2017

golferjohn1970 said:
I'm not sold that Keatts is a bad defensive coach I looked up their teams games and only 7 times has his team allowed 80 points or more. They won a lot of games by 15 or more points so some of those games they might have had the 2nd unit in there who knows. It would be refreshing to have a coach that is good at coaching scoring and offensive efficiency and just wins games period.

80+ pts. 7 times? That's at least 5-7 times too many in my book. That's insane if you ask me. His defense is poor in a weak conference and his offense is great in a poor conference. That translates to above average offense and the worst defense in Illinois history when moving to the Big 10.

TCTORNADO · Feb 8, 2017

UNCW is now @ #42 on RPI.

OrangeKrus28 · Feb 8, 2017

Illiniwek06 said:
No, you really haven't proven anything. You assert that he has no shot in the B1G and will be exposed without any support. LurkLong (I think) provided a rebuttal to your contention, pointing out that 1) if your team is strong offensively, elite defense is not a requirement for success, and 2) those stats don't necessarily translate from old to new teams.

However, since you're stuck on those defensive stats, how do you feel about UNCW finishing 110/351 a year ago? Just behind tourney teams IU, USC and ahead of Miami FL, Texas, Utah, and Pitt?

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/defensive-efficiency?date=2016-04-05

He coaches in the CAA. Sorry, but I don't buy what many of you are selling. Whitman will not go for a major risk like that. He's too smart of an AD to play that game. If you guys want this program to be in the same place 5 years from now with a relatively unknown coach who is dominating a poor conference, fine, but I'd rather another school take their chances with him. He is in no way a better coach than Danny Manning and Manning has struggled mightily in the ACC and that was after he had a decent job at Tulsa.

t7nich · Feb 8, 2017

OrangeKrus28 said:
He coaches in the CAA. Sorry, but I don't buy what many of you are selling. Whitman will not go for a major risk like that. He's too smart of an AD to play that game. If you guys want this program to be in the same place 5 years from now with a relatively unknown coach who is dominating a poor conference, fine, but I'd rather another school take their chances with him. He is in no way a better coach than Danny Manning and Manning has struggled mightily in the ACC and that was after he had a decent job at Tulsa.

So you're not in favor of Keatts, is that what you're saying?

LurkLongandProsper · Feb 8, 2017

OrangeKrus28 said:
He coaches in the CAA. Sorry, but I don't buy what many of you are selling. Whitman will not go for a major risk like that. He's too smart of an AD to play that game. If you guys want this program to be in the same place 5 years from now with a relatively unknown coach who is dominating a poor conference, fine, but I'd rather another school take their chances with him. He is in no way a better coach than Danny Manning and Manning has struggled mightily in the ACC and that was after he had a decent job at Tulsa.

Manning was meh at Tulsa and was a ... surprising? ... hire for Wake. He's also not a close comparison to Keatts, so a completely random comparison.

The simple fact is nothing that you are claiming to be true is supported by any data. Whitman wanting to take the risk or not, that defense won't translate, that offense won't translate, etc.

Illiniwek06 said:
No, you really haven't proven anything. You assert that he has no shot in the B1G and will be exposed without any support. LurkLong (I think) provided a rebuttal to your contention, pointing out that 1) if your team is strong offensively, elite defense is not a requirement for success, and 2) those stats don't necessarily translate from old to new teams.

However, since you're stuck on those defensive stats, how do you feel about UNCW finishing 110/351 a year ago? Just behind tourney teams IU, USC and ahead of Miami FL, Texas, Utah, and Pitt?

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/defensive-efficiency?date=2016-04-05

Edit: for reference, Illinois ranked 239/351.

Expanding the sample size, nice! And yeah, those points were from me, and still stand. You can make the tournament as a top seed without playing a lick of defense, and that's exactly what UCLA is doing this year.

GBPillini · Feb 8, 2017

OrangeKrus28 said:
He coaches in the CAA. Sorry, but I don't buy what many of you are selling. Whitman will not go for a major risk like that. He's too smart of an AD to play that game. If you guys want this program to be in the same place 5 years from now with a relatively unknown coach who is dominating a poor conference, fine, but I'd rather another school take their chances with him. He is in no way a better coach than Danny Manning and Manning has struggled mightily in the ACC and that was after he had a decent job at Tulsa.

Tulsa was 95 on Kenpom the year before Danny Manning took over. His first year he finished at 181 and his 2nd was 82. In no way similar to Keatts taking a team that was 280 and going to 174, 83, and 42 in subsequent years.

haasi · Feb 8, 2017

OrangeKrus28 said:
He coaches in the CAA. Sorry, but I don't buy what many of you are selling. Whitman will not go for a major risk like that. He's too smart of an AD to play that game. If you guys want this program to be in the same place 5 years from now with a relatively unknown coach who is dominating a poor conference, fine, but I'd rather another school take their chances with him. He is in no way a better coach than Danny Manning and Manning has struggled mightily in the ACC and that was after he had a decent job at Tulsa.

If you want to make your argument, find several examples of coaches who have achieved great success with middling defenses in lower conferences who moved up to big conferences and struggled with their defenses. So far, you've given one example - Danny Manning. Tulsa was 174th in offensive effiency and 33rd in defensive efficiency in 2013-14 when he won the conference - so kind of the reverse, great defensively, not so good offensively. This year, Wake is 22nd in offensive efficiency and 252nd in defensive efficiency. In other words, breaking down that stats for Manning is entirely meaningless. Without showing that what you're suggesting has empirical basis, there's not much to think about.

Just to break this down more clearly:

Manning at Tulsa: 174 offense, 33 defense. Manning at Wake: 22 offense, 252 defense. This data point taken alone shows, if anything, that is there is very little you can extrapolate from a coach's offensive/defensive efficiency at a lower level to expected efficiency at a higher level.

Without any other data points, your argument has no legs.

golferjohn1970 · Feb 8, 2017

GBPillini said:
Tulsa was 95 on Kenpom the year before Danny Manning took over. His first year he finished at 181 and his 2nd was 82. In no way similar to Keatts taking a team that was 280 and going to 174, 83, and 42 in subsequent years.

I'm fine with waiting to see if Keatts wins a game or two in the tourney but if he does there will be major programs after him you better believe it. There are guys that can just coach and he is one of them. I think Cuonzo is a safe pick as he can recruit but he worries me with his coaching abilities.

poor dirt farmer · Feb 8, 2017

I want nothing to do with that Louisville cesspool. When I watch Lovie represent our university I feel a great deal of pride. That's what we need in the whole of our athletic department. This institution is a sleeping giant I trust and hope this athletic director feels the same. If some alleged canidates don't see it that's their loss. They can go to a so called blue blood and be just another name. The right canidate can come here and be immortal. They can be our Phog Allen our Hank Iba.

dweebs19 · Feb 8, 2017

t7nich said:
So you're not in favor of Keatts, is that what you're saying?

That's really all he has to say. He doesn't need to claim that he provided evidence for blah blah blah, because he really hasn't shown any evidene for anything. All he has to say is that he is against him just because. I don't know why he doesn't just state so.

haasi · Feb 8, 2017

dweebs19 said:
That's really all he has to say. He doesn't need to claim that he provided evidence for blah blah blah, because he really hasn't shown any evidene for anything. All he has to say is that he is against him just because. I don't know why he doesn't just state so.

It's totally reasonable to say you don't want the guy because his only HC experience is HS prep and then 3 years in a small conference. But assuming he would be terrible defensively here because of a top 1/3 defensive efficiency at a lower level - without any data or even anecdotal support at all - does zilch.

Illiniwek06 · Feb 8, 2017

haasi said:
If you want to make your argument, find several examples of coaches who have achieved great success with middling defenses in lower conferences who moved up to big conferences and struggled with their defenses. So far, you've given one example - Danny Manning. Tulsa was 174th in offensive effiency and 33rd in defensive efficiency in 2013-14 when he won the conference - so kind of the reverse, great defensively, not so good offensively. This year, Wake is 22nd in offensive efficiency and 252nd in defensive efficiency. In other words, breaking down that stats for Manning is entirely meaningless. Without showing that what you're suggesting has empirical basis, there's not much to think about.

Just to break this down more clearly:

Manning at Tulsa: 174 offense, 33 defense. Manning at Wake: 22 offense, 252 defense. This data point taken alone shows, if anything, that is there is very little you can extrapolate from a coach's offensive/defensive efficiency at a lower level to expected efficiency at a higher level.

Without any other data points, your argument has no legs.

+1. Nice breakdown. :thumb:

FollowTisdale · Feb 8, 2017

OrangeKrus28 said:
80+ pts. 7 times? That's at least 5-7 times too many in my book. That's insane if you ask me. His defense is poor in a weak conference and his offense is great in a poor conference. That translates to above average offense and the worst defense in Illinois history when moving to the Big 10.

You've already decided that his offense will not translate to the Big 10 (with no more reasoning than it just won't) and his defense will be even worse than it is now (with no more reasoning than... it just won't!).

You've also already been told the fallacy of relying on PPG stats instead of using the adjusted for tempo numbers.

The guy has a team in the CAA (worst conference in the history of basketball, might as well be pee-wee, pretty sure Rantoul HS could beat them, etc.) rated #55 in Kenpom. He's won and won and won everywhere he has been. Turned a program around from cellar to NCAA tournament (which is almost impossible seeing as the CAA is barely IHSA JV Level) in 2 years. Has been mentioned as one of the most feared recruiters in the country.

I'm not saying he's going to be Illinois' next head coach. I want him to be, because i'll be dollars to donuts the guy is going to succeed wherever he ends up next year, and has the potential to have a banner in the rafters of whatever power 5 school he ends up at long term.

But really, you're nothing but a speed bump. The Keatts Hype Train will not be slowed down! KEATTS :shield:

HYPE

TRAIN

IlliniCaboose · Feb 8, 2017

Obviously the game is different but the Flyin' Illini team allowed 80+ points 11 times and only one of those games resulted in a loss. Point being what do you think would put more butts in the seats winning/losing games with scores like 92-88 or winning/losing games with scores of 39-35.
All that to say no one knows how Keatts' tactics would translate to the B1G, but his results are very, very encouraging, no matter the conference.

golferjohn1970 · Feb 8, 2017

FollowTisdale said:
You've already decided that his offense will not translate to the Big 10 (with no more reasoning than it just won't) and his defense will be even worse than it is now (with no more reasoning than... it just won't!).

You've also already been told the fallacy of relying on PPG stats instead of using the adjusted for tempo numbers.

The guy has a team in the CAA (worst conference in the history of basketball, might as well be pee-wee, pretty sure Rantoul HS could beat them, etc.) rated #55 in Kenpom. He's won and won and won everywhere he has been. Turned a program around from cellar to NCAA tournament (which is almost impossible seeing as the CAA is barely IHSA JV Level) in 2 years. Has been mentioned as one of the most feared recruiters in the country.

I'm not saying he's going to be Illinois' next head coach. I want him to be, because i'll be dollars to donuts the guy is going to succeed wherever he ends up next year, and has the potential to have a banner in the rafters of whatever power 5 school he ends up at long term.

But really, you're nothing but a speed bump. The Keatts Hype Train will not be slowed down! KEATTS HYPE TRAIN

I'm with ya Tisdale all aboard the Keatts train!!

OrangeKrus28 · Feb 8, 2017

dweebs19 said:
That's really all he has to say. He doesn't need to claim that he provided evidence for blah blah blah, because he really hasn't shown any evidene for anything. All he has to say is that he is against him just because. I don't know why he doesn't just state so.

I have already indicated that I am against him. Everyone is entitled to their opinion but that type of a move screams of desperation to go for the next big thing and there's too much risk in going for a relatively unknown coach. Let someone else take him and if he has success, great, and if he doesn't, then we can be happy knowing that we didn't throw our program down the well for another 5 years of mediocrity or worse.

Defense is a better gauge of where a coach is at. If his defenses suck at the lower level, that's a good indicator that his defenses will suck at a higher level school. Defense is not something that requires great talent, it requires energy and plenty of practice at perfecting that craft. There are many average players who are great defenders. You can control your defense and how you play, but you can't always control how often your shots go down. If his teams are poor at defense, then that would have me highly concerned. The college game is a defense-first game. This isn't the NBA.

golferjohn1970 · Feb 8, 2017

Do you guys believe there is an eye test for coaches? Whether the guy just seems the part of a good coach or not? I think Groce definitely fails that test and the results the past 5 years prove it. I don't know much about Keatts but he just looks the part doesn't he?

CAHALL15 · Feb 8, 2017

golferjohn1970 said:
Okay so say JW hired Martin what is our record next year with all 4 recruits staying? I say he goes 10-8 in Big Ten and about 21-22 wins overall and make the tourney?

Could someone please bring up the preseason predictions for this year? I feel like just about everyone predicted 20 wins+ and look where we are. It is impossible to predict next year because who knows if all the recruits stay or if we have guys transfer in or out.

ILHoff · Feb 8, 2017

golferjohn1970 said:
Do you guys believe there is an eye test for coaches? Whether the guy just seems the part of a good coach or not? I think Groce definitely fails that test and the results the past 5 years prove it. I don't know much about Keatts but he just looks the part doesn't he?

If you could eyeball it, Coach K would be O-fer.

ChiefIllini · Feb 8, 2017

FollowTisdale said:
The Keatts Hype Train will not be slowed down! KEATTS HYPE TRAIN

Do you think Keatts is at least comparable to Shaka in 2012? Obviously Keatts hasn't checked of the tourney success like Shaka, and their styles are a complete 180 from each other, but from a record standpoint:

Shaka
Season Team Overall Conference Standing Postseason

2009–10 VCU 27–9 11–7 T–5th CBI Champions
2010–11 VCU 28–12 12–6 4th NCAA Final Four
2011–12 VCU 29–7 15–3 2nd NCAA Round of 32

Keatts
Season Team Overall Conference Standing Postseason

2014–15 UNC W 18–14 12–6 T–1st CIT First Round
2015–16 UNC W 25–8 14–4 T–1st NCAA First Round
2016–17 UNC W 21–4 10–2 T-1st****

I think its also a good argument Keatts came into a much worse situation (UNCW hadn't finished better than 7th since 2008, VCU was in first for the three years before Shaka). I think if you're going to argue about the CAA being a tougher conference then, I would suggest Keatts has still showed more prowess to at least elevate his team, if you're discrediting his conference success.

Shaka had more assistant exp. and it's really hard to overlook his tourney success, but I think there could be an argument. I'm not saying Keatts is or will be a better coach, as this is more of a cautionary post: Everyone has blemishes and gold stars, a coaches success is much more deep than rankings or tourney runs can predict.

OrangeKrus28 · Feb 8, 2017

golferjohn1970 said:
Do you guys believe there is an eye test for coaches? Whether the guy just seems the part of a good coach or not? I think Groce definitely fails that test and the results the past 5 years prove it. I don't know much about Keatts but he just looks the part doesn't he?

Looks can be deceiving. I haven't seen him coach or his teams play so I have no opinion on that. Underwood's teams at SFA passed the eye test. Someone like Dan Muller at ISU doesn't exactly pass the eye test. He may just have the right group of players w/the right chemistry.

Illiniwek06 · Feb 8, 2017

ChiefIllini said:
Do you think Keatts is at least comparable to Shaka in 2012? Obviously Keatts hasn't checked of the tourney success like Shaka, and their styles are a complete 180 from each other, but from a record standpoint:

Shaka
Season Team Overall Conference Standing Postseason

2009–10 VCU 27–9 11–7 T–5th CBI Champions
2010–11 VCU 28–12 12–6 4th NCAA Final Four
2011–12 VCU 29–7 15–3 2nd NCAA Round of 32

Defensive efficiency:
2009-10: 81/347 (CBI Champ)
2010-11: 162/345 (NCAA F4)
2011-12: 13/345 (NCAA R32)

Interesting that Shaka made it the furthest in the tourney with his WORST defensive team.