2017 Coaching Carousel

LurkLongandProsper · Feb 22, 2017

mattcoldagelli said:
The fact that beating Northwestern at home now prompts people to make comments like this is the most ironclad, irrefutable reason he has to go.

What bothers me more is that this 2 game conference win streak, our first since 2015 (!), has people saying "hold on", when in reality it ended a stretch in which we went 4 of 5 at home. Self lost 3 times total at home in Champaign! I don't expect that level of excellence in CU anytime soon, but come on. If I'm not mistaken, Groce is now 22-22 in Champaign. :tsk:

Thor015 said:
What if Groce finally figured out how to get players to truely give it their all? What if he uses what he has now learned to go to another program and finally be truely successful and we get a coach who keeps us here or worse can't recruit here either?

I'm not advocating for JFG to stay but I am wondering about a lot of scenarios here. I think I'm landing in the camp if you have to keep him unless you have an absolute homer in that can make the Illini sexy again.

And. It just kind of sexy but super sexy and everyone dreams of you

I don't get this sentiment at all. Groce is a bottom 15 coach in all of the power 5 right now. It should not be difficult to find a coach who can accomplish more than he has at Illinois.

TooHot4Tots said:
First time winning back to back conference games in 2 years. That's brutal.

I just can't get over how bad that is.

ILLHangOut · Feb 22, 2017

cam said:
Lucas has made a huge difference on offense now we have a creator and a guy who can run the team and on defense he is pressuring the ball and not getting beat every trip down the floor. I do like the shortening of the bench and not worrying about making everyone happy.

These are certainly improvements, but imo do not make up for all of the other shortcomings with the current roster.

It took an entire season to figure out how to run an inbounds play. I feel like we've been working on the basics all year.

My hope is we finish very strong, the SRs get their tournament appearance, and have some success in it. I still want Groce gone at the end of it. I just don't think this staff has the competency to run to a program on and off the court.

I'd like to think that any late season success just makes the job more attractive to the next coach.

whovous · Feb 22, 2017

LurkLongandProsper said:
What bothers me more is that this 2 game conference win streak, our first since 2015 (!), has people saying "hold on", when in reality it ended a stretch in which we went 4 of 5 at home. Self lost 3 times total at home in Champaign! I don't expect that level of excellence in CU anytime soon, but come on. If I'm not mistaken, Groce is now 22-22 in Champaign. :tsk:

I don't get this sentiment at all. Groce is a bottom 15 coach in all of the power 5 right now. It should not be difficult to find a coach who can accomplish more than he has at Illinois.

I just can't get over how bad that is.

What is wrong with saying "Hold on."? Groce is not going to get fired before the end of the regular season under any imaginable circumstance. Combine that with the fact that making the dance without winning the BTT is still possible and what else is there to say?

You don't really have a choice until the season is over. If he dances, a whole lot of people are going say "Hold on." Only one of those people matter and that's the guy who makes the call.

dweebs19 · Feb 22, 2017

As much as I want a new coach, we've all said from the beginning that if Groce dances, he keeps his job. Can't change that now. I also don't understand why people are getting nervous about Groce staying. He still has to get into the NCAAT and that's not going to be easy.

whovous · Feb 22, 2017

OrangeAndBlues said:
What's wrong with saying hold on is it makes no sense. If I am terrible at my job for years in a row and all of a sudden my work improves slightly to reach barely adequate levels, I still deserve to be fired.

At the beginning of the season, the consensus was Groce stays if he dances. It made sense then, and it makes sense now.

Hold on. You risk precisely nothing by doing so, and you get to cheer for the beloved at the same time.

OrangeAndBlues · Feb 22, 2017

DudeIllini said:
I have seen the Illini in the tournament scenario thrown around quite a bit lately. Everyone knows that's extremely unlikely, right?

It would seem not, unfortunately.

whovous · Feb 22, 2017

OrangeAndBlues said:
It would seem not, unfortunately.

Has anyone said it is likely? I may be Groce's biggest cheerleader at this point, and I think it is at best 50-1 against him dancing. 25-1 if we beat Nebraska.

89illinigrad · Feb 22, 2017

OrangeAndBlues said:
What's wrong with saying hold on is it makes no sense. If I am terrible at my job for years in a row and all of a sudden my work improves slightly to reach barely adequate levels, I still deserve to be fired.

If you want to use that analogy, how about we take it a step further:. Say you are the Manager of your dept and you've been trying for years to find a good supervisor to help lead your dept. You've gone after some of the top supervisors from HS, but missed out for various reasons. You've tried transfers from other depts, but they didn't work out either.

Finally you landed a quality supervisor that, after a few months of training, finally seems to have your dept clicking and performing well.

If you make your quota for the year, is your boss going to say, I'm sorry but because you didn't make your quota the last 4 years, even with half your dept out sick last year, I'm not going to give you credit for making your quota this year, you're fired.

Not even taking into acct that you have a potentially even better supervisor coming in next year that you may lose if you fire the manager.

All I'm saying is that if the team makes the dance this year, it will make JW's decision very difficult.

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combes · Feb 22, 2017

OrangeAndBlues said:
It would seem not, unfortunately.

Wait, are you saying that you wouldn't want Illinois to make the tournament?

OrangeAndBlues · Feb 22, 2017

89illinigrad said:
If you want to use that analogy, how about we take it a step further:. Say you are the Manager of your dept and you've been trying for years to find a good supervisor to help lead your dept. You've gone after some of the top supervisors from HS, but missed out for various reasons. You've tried transfers from other depts, but they didn't work out either.

Finally you landed a quality supervisor that, after a few months of training, finally seems to have your dept clicking and performing well.

If you make your quota for the year, is your boss going to say, I'm sorry but because you didn't make your quota the last 4 years, even with half your dept out sick last year, I'm not going to give you credit for making your quota this year, you're fired.

Not even taking into acct that you have a potentially even better supervisor coming in next year that you may lose if you fire the manager.

All I'm saying is that if the team makes the dance this year, it will make JW's decision very difficult.

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What? That isn't even close to an accurate analogy. It hardly even makes sense.

OrangeAndBlues · Feb 22, 2017

combes said:
Wait, are you saying that you wouldn't want Illinois to make the tournament?

No, no one is saying that. I'm saying it's pretty clear they aren't going to and even if they did Groce is gone.

FeelYourPaign · Feb 22, 2017

combes said:
Wait, are you saying that you wouldn't want Illinois to make the tournament?

Pretty sure that he is just saying that it is unfortunate that people don't seem to understand that winning out (or winning enough) to make the tournament is extremely unlikely. Wishes that people weren't already starting the kool-aid marathon

OrangeAndBlues · Feb 22, 2017

FeelYourPaign said:
Pretty sure that he is just saying that it is unfortunate that people don't seem to understand that winning out (or winning enough) to make the tournament is extremely unlikely. Wishes that people weren't already starting the kool-aid marathon

That's exactly it, thank you. I'm worried that people are hyped for a small amount of short term success to the detriment of our long term success.

ILLGOLF11 · Feb 22, 2017

OrangeAndBlues said:
That's exactly it, thank you. I'm worried that people are hyped for a small amount of short term success to the detriment of our long term success.

Exactly. We've seen this happen every year but last year. The team is completely dead by the end of January. He "rallies" them a bit at the end to "salvage" the season to where it doesn't look like a complete failure. Then people say, "well, with that finish, let's give him one more chance to make the tournament." Then they don't the following year, but once again have an okay finish and people say the same thing and the cycle just continues. We need to realize this is Groce's peak as a Big Ten coach - a rally to finish .500 in the conference and make an NIT and sometimes get his team onto the bubble. If people are satisfied with that, then by all means, bring him back.

Whitman2020 · Feb 22, 2017

UofI08 said:
2 straight conference wins (FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2 YEARS) saves our coach.

No one has said that.

Whitman2020 · Feb 22, 2017

UofI08 said:
Maybe not directly but there's more than a few that think he should or will be the coach next year. A few more who think he should stay barring a "homerun." And even a couple that think he is finally hitting his stride due to better pg play of late and deserves to stay to keep his recruits.

I don't think it's a sure thing he is gone next year, either. If the season ended today, I would say yes. But it doesn't, Groce has some more games, and JW still needs to see if there is a worthwhile replacement that he can afford. Certainly not a cut and dry decision, currently, to fire him after the last game of the season.

cam · Feb 22, 2017

89illinigrad said:
If you want to use that analogy, how about we take it a step further:. Say you are the Manager of your dept and you've been trying for years to find a good supervisor to help lead your dept. You've gone after some of the top supervisors from HS, but missed out for various reasons. You've tried transfers from other depts, but they didn't work out either.

Finally you landed a quality supervisor that, after a few months of training, finally seems to have your dept clicking and performing well.

If you make your quota for the year, is your boss going to say, I'm sorry but because you didn't make your quota the last 4 years, even with half your dept out sick last year, I'm not going to give you credit for making your quota this year, you're fired.

Not even taking into acct that you have a potentially even better supervisor coming in next year that you may lose if you fire the manager.

All I'm saying is that if the team makes the dance this year, it will make JW's decision very difficult.

Sent from my MotoE2(4G-LTE) using Tapatalk

I think with Lucas and Frazier the point guard position has gone from a disaster to a strength next year. I do think Groce if he's fired is being fired for past failures, I believe if you look at the situation now and heading in to next year he has us on the right track because we are getting way more athletic and the point guard position, which is the most important on the floor is now going to be dramatically better

89illinigrad · Feb 22, 2017

UofI08 said:
I mean technically you're right. If Groce wins out, wins or at least gets to the BTT title game, and then wins a couple games in the tournament, yes I think he's back. But what are the chances of that happening?

I don't think beating Nebraska or Rutgers will tell us anything. Beating MSU could be a decent win. If you look at the season as a whole, we've failed every test by losing to most of the good teams we've played. The only tournament worthy teams we've beat were VCU, Michigan, and Northwestern, all projected 8 seeds or worse.

I don't think anyone is saying it will happen (making the dance) or that it's even likely to happen, but some of us (including me) are holding out hope that it does happen. Mainly because it's obvious that, off the court Groce is a good guy and represents our University well that you can't help but root for him. Plus, it would be nice for Hill and the other seniors to make it to the tourney at least once in their careers.

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combes · Feb 22, 2017

FeelYourPaign said:
Pretty sure that he is just saying that it is unfortunate that people don't seem to understand that winning out (or winning enough) to make the tournament is extremely unlikely. Wishes that people weren't already starting the kool-aid marathon

I am not on the koolaid. I think he is gone. In order to make the tournament, Illinois would have to win the last five in the regular season and at least two in the BTT tournament. The last time we beat 7 BT teams in a row was 2005.

I do think if we make the tournament that Groce stays for at least another year, though.

Madprof · Feb 22, 2017

JW is gonna keep Groce because it's all part of his nefarious plot to make Illinois a football school once again (insert evil laugh) "MIFSA". Robert from IB has been his secret press secretary, hence the continued support of Groce. JW was part of the "17" all along. It's all a conspiracy.

FeelYourPaign · Feb 22, 2017

combes said:
I am not on the koolaid. I think he is gone. In order to make the tournament, Illinois would have to win the last five in the regular season and at least two in the BTT tournament. The last time we beat 7 BT teams in a row was 2005.

I do think if we make the tournament that Groce stays for at least another year, though.

I never thought that you would be optimistic about our chances, not because of any defeatism or whatever on your part, but because I know that you are VERY knowledgeable about basketball. We are painted deeply into a corner and the only pleasing thing at all is the fact that the team has not quit. I completely agree that the odds of this team . . . really almost any team . . . winning 7 conference games in a row are slim and none. Slim has bought his train ticket out of town.

Golfer63 · Feb 22, 2017

The problem with keeping Groce now is that he is 100% behind the 8 ball with pretty much the entire fan base if he is kept next year. Every loss will lead to fans getting their pitch forks fired up. Any sign of adversity will lead to thousands of empty seats in SFC. As much as most fans have, at best, casual knowledge of basketball, they have a ton of power in determining the fate of a coach. It's what makes these jobs so tough. It's like being the president. It's a thankless job where people who with marginal knowledge have the power to determine your fate. JW cannot afford to risk the possibility of fan apathy that will completely derail any chance of the program returning to where they belong. The guy had some awful breaks that completely derailed the momentum that he generated for the program in the first couple of years of his tenure. Once that momentum is derailed, it is almost impossible to get back. The guy just needs a fresh start. He'll probably go back to tOSU as an assistant, and unfortunately, they will probably rise again to the level they were at 5 years ago. He will then learn from mistakes made here and go on to be a successful head coach somewhere.

Our next hire might be the most important hire in our history and will go a long way towards getting the program back to where it belongs or if they will just stay mediocre to bad for years and years to come.

FatGreg · Feb 22, 2017

I think the whole disagreement comes down to this:

-Pretty much everyone agrees that if the team wins 6 of its next 7, gets to the BTT championship game, makes the tournament, and wins at least one game there, Groce is likely retained.

-Some of us are maintaining that until that scenario is no longer possible, we can't rule it out. No one is saying it's likely. We're all rooting for it to happen (right?!) - not specifically because anyone wants Groce retained, but because we want the team to win every time they step on the court. I'm still rooting for a National Championship this year, despite knowing it's a virtual impossibility. I'll continue rooting for that until it's an actual impossibility.

-The people getting angry about non-existent irrational optimism are misconstruing disinterested mathematical pragmatism (i.e. until it can't happen, nothing can be ruled out) as some kind of delirious hoping. That's not the case. Almost everyone is on the same page here. The whole thing is a miscommunication about probability distribution analysis.

OrangeAndBlues · Feb 22, 2017

FatGreg said:
I think the whole disagreement comes down to this:

-Pretty much everyone agrees that if the team wins 6 of its next 7, gets to the BTT championship game, makes the tournament, and wins at least one game there, Groce is likely retained.

-Some of us are maintaining that until that scenario is no longer possible, we can't rule it out. No one is saying it's likely. We're all rooting for it to happen (right?!) - not specifically because anyone wants Groce retained, but because we want the team to win every time they step on the court. I'm still rooting for a National Championship this year, despite knowing it's a virtual impossibility. I'll continue rooting for that until it's an actual impossibility.

-The people getting angry about non-existent irrational optimism are misconstruing disinterested mathematical pragmatism (i.e. until it can't happen, nothing can be ruled out) as some kind of delirious hoping. That's not the case. Almost everyone is on the same page here. The whole thing is a miscommunication about probability distribution analysis.

Dude, read the postgame and pregame threads. There are a vocal minority who genuinely think It's Gonna Happen. That's what's making some of us feel like beating our head into the wall. I'm totally fine with the statistical probability of it.

LurkLongandProsper · Feb 22, 2017

Golfer63 said:
The problem with keeping Groce now is that he is 100% behind the 8 ball with pretty much the entire fan base if he is kept next year. Every loss will lead to fans getting their pitch forks fired up. Any sign of adversity will lead to thousands of empty seats in SFC. As much as most fans have, at best, casual knowledge of basketball, they have a ton of power in determining the fate of a coach. It's what makes these jobs so tough. It's like being the president. It's a thankless job where people who with marginal knowledge have the power to determine your fate. JW cannot afford to risk the possibility of fan apathy that will completely derail any chance of the program returning to where they belong. The guy had some awful breaks that completely derailed the momentum that he generated for the program in the first couple of years of his tenure. Once that momentum is derailed, it is almost impossible to get back. The guy just needs a fresh start. He'll probably go back to tOSU as an assistant, and unfortunately, they will probably rise again to the level they were at 5 years ago. He will then learn from mistakes made here and go on to be a successful head coach somewhere.

Our next hire might be the most important hire in our history and will go a long way towards getting the program back to where it belongs or if they will just stay mediocre to bad for years and years to come.

I don't disagree with your president comparison for a multitude of reasons, but I do think that you're right about the fanbase. Attendance has not been good, Krush booed Groce in his intro last night, and so on. I have people who didn't miss a single game in college (in person and multiple road trips) who aren't tuning in because we play bad basketball under a bad coach and can't compete in a down conference where most of the traditional powers are having terrible years (IU, MSU, OSU). That's going to be incredibly difficult to overcome. That said, we'll see what the response is if he does somehow manage to extend this 2 game streak to 6 or 7.

cam said:
I think with Lucas and Frazier the point guard position has gone from a disaster to a strength next year. I do think Groce if he's fired is being fired for past failures, I believe if you look at the situation now and heading in to next year he has us on the right track because we are getting way more athletic and the point guard position, which is the most important on the floor is now going to be dramatically better

Let's not get ahead of ourselves on TJL. He's been a bright spot on this team, without a doubt, and probably the best PG Groce has had.

But compared to other PGs throughout the conference, he's average. PG isn't magically a position of strength for us now and likely won't be next year. It is no longer a major position of weakness, however.

Here's a table with all of the conference guards and their conference stats so far this season. Yeah, eye test and whatever, but TJL is not ahead of many other returning guards. Our PG spot will not be a major hole anymore, but it's not immediately a position of strength, either.