2017 Coaching Carousel

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#6,351      

bredhartmann

Centralia, IL
Groce may not be one of the best coaches, and certainly has his faults, but I am going to call BS on this.

Year 1: He took a 6-12 B1G team that lost its lottery pick center as close to the Sweet 16 as you can get without getting there.
Year 2: He got a team with only two returning scholarship players to play together by year end and to the NIT.
Year 3: He took a team with a sophomore Jaylon Tate as starting PG and numerous injuries and suspensions to a 9-9 finish in the B1G.
Year 4: Not sure you can even consider this year - a total disaster of injuries - most of the year there were only 8 or 9 scholarship players dressed, 4 of whom were freshmen. But I guess he is the worst coach in the Power 5 because he couldn't coach them up to beat a majority of the power 5 teams they played.

You conveniently left out this season..what excuse can you conjure for that? Get a grip on reality dude.
 
#6,352      
Come on. Back room deals have always been a part of hiring a coach. By now, I would guess, JW knows whether he has a chance at any of his top targets. If he gauges the situation and feels it is a tough sell, then he will wait. As another poster pointed out, you don't want to lock into a 4-5 year deal with a guy you are uncertain of.



Discussions through back channels obviously. But when I read that the home run must be lined up, I assume that means essentially signed. Also, with social media today there are rampant leaks that spread quickly. Finally, there is a huge difference between gauging interest from a bunch of potential candidates for future consideration and targeting one guy with specific negotiations. Just look at the position "discussions" have put NC State in.


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#6,353      
In case anyone thinks we were right in firing Bruce, but shouldn't fire Groce:


Weber won 20 or more games 7 out of 9 years.
Groce won 20 or more in 2 of 5 years.


Weber had a .500 or better record (in the Big) 7 of 9 years
Groce is .500 or better in 1 of 5 years.


Weber’s overall win % was .675
Groce overall is .578.


Weber’s Big 10 win % was .578 (89-65)
Groce Big 10 win % is .386. (32-52)


This is not an argument to bring Bruce back. This is an argument to fire Groce 15 minutes after the season ends.

important fact you missed: weber inherited a roster that made the championship game; groce took over a team with basically three blank recruiting classes
 
#6,354      

homesickalien

Springfield
Important facts that some of you still are missing.

  • Groce is done
  • Weber and Groce both deserved to be fired
  • Weber is a better basketball coach than Groce
  • Neither turned out to be the right coaches for the Illini
  • We'll have a new coach next year
 
#6,356      

skyIdub

Winged Warrior
not defending groce. just pointing out the utter lack of perspective in most posts

What? I 100% believe when JW sits down with Groce to fire him, Groce will understand without a shred of doubt that the results of the last 5 years are not acceptable for this program. He knows it. He's working is a$$ off to change it, and I respect and like the man and his work ethic, but his coaching is not getting it done. Period.

The lack of perspective is from those that want to make all the excuses for why it's not where it should be. I know because last year and at the start of this year, I was one of those. It is absolutely clear now. Crystal.

codicedonore2.jpg
 
#6,357      
Nobody is saying that if you can keep Groce without extending him. Of course you would have to extend him. The argument is if you extend him you would be able to keep the guarantees and buyouts low so you would not significantly change the financial situation. The key to these contracts is what it costs you to get out of them not what how long the contract runs. I agree with Obelix that the contract situation will not be the deciding factor if Groce is retained or fired. The decision to retain or fire will be based on performance not money. Same thing goes for a new hire. I don't think that the money will dissuade us in the hiring process either. We will make competive offers, whether a candidate accepts or not will go beyond money.
 
#6,358      

UofI08

Chicago
Nobody is saying that if you can keep Groce without extending him. Of course you would have to extend him. The argument is if you extend him you would be able to keep the guarantees and buyouts low so you would not significantly change the financial situation. The key to these contracts is what it costs you to get out of them not what how long the contract runs. I agree with Obelix that the contract situation will not be the deciding factor if Groce is retained or fired. The decision to retain or fire will be based on performance not money. Same thing goes for a new hire. I don't think that the money will dissuade us in the hiring process either. We will make competive offers, whether a candidate accepts or not will go beyond money.

I understand all of that. I really do. Obviously if for some reason you keep Groce, you're not going to extend him at 3 mil per year with a multimillion dollar buyout. But you will have to give him a legit contract. I don't know, around 2 mil per year for 3 years with a 1 mil buyout. Something like that.
 
#6,359      
I think the the contractual debate is overblown. I think you can extend him - which is probably what will happen if they choose that route - but the real issue is that I don't see the team being better next year. There's a chance they could be, but it would take some major steps forward from JCL, Black and Finke as well as getting a couple frosh to contribute right away. And that IMO is the reason you don't keep him. But again, if you do you almost have to give him 2 seasons because otherwise there's a high likelihood that you'll be in the same exact situation this time next year.
 
#6,360      
OK, if you call it cherry picking let's really cherry pick the data. Instead of leaving Groces numbers out like you did, just throw Weber's numbers out. Ignore everything else and just look at Groces numbers. Are they even remotely satisfactory? They're horrible!

Groce's numbers were in the post I quoted & I didn't throw out Weber's number. The point I was trying to make is Weber was a historically good coach by the numbers yr 1-3, he was a respectable coach by the numbers year 4-6, he was worse than Groce by Win percentage year 7-9. By averaging out Weber's 9 years you don't see the downward trend that we had under Weber. So here our the numbers again with Groce's numbers copied below. I'm not opposed to Groce getting fired, especially assuming we don't make the tournament this year. But we are starting to make up false narratives on why, comparing to Weber's average numbers is one of those. The contract argument that the contract will be either cost prohibitive or provide an unreasonable sense of security, or locks us down for 5 more years, or whatever is another.

win %
Lon Kruger .628
Self .765
Weber yr 1-3 .848
yr 4-6 .700
yr 7-9 .569 (vs. .675 lifetime)
Groce overall is .578

We didn't fire the .675 lifetime Bruce Weber, we fired the .569 Weber who brought us from a national runner up & after inheriting a team that produced one of the best 3 yrs periods in our history. So you can look at the average numbers and think Bruce was a much better coach or you can look at the criminally bad drop in the program under Bruce Weber...in my mind what Bruce Weber did to our program is much worse, he took a program from one of the best in the nation in 2005 to mediocre to bad in his last year. Groce has maintained the mediocre to bad, but Weber got us here. Looking at average numbers for Weber is cherry picking. There are lots of arguments to fire Groce, this comparison to Weber is just a very bad one.
 
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#6,361      
Also checked the Dayton board and found this post/response:

Taking EVERYTHING into consideration Illinois is at-best a lateral move from UD.

It's a demotion. Good luck reaching the tourney every 4 years.

At least we beat NW...
 
#6,362      
Groce's numbers were in the post I quoted & I didn't throw out Weber's number. The point I was trying to make is Weber was a historically good coach by the numbers yr 1-3, he was a respectable coach by the numbers year 4-6, he was worse than Groce by Win percentage year 7-9. By averaging out Weber's 9 years you don't see the downward trend that we had under Weber. So here our the numbers again with Groce's numbers copied below. I'm not opposed to Groce getting fired, especially assuming we don't make the tournament this year. But we are starting to make up false narratives on why, comparing to Weber's average numbers is one of those. The contract argument that the contract will be either cost prohibitive or provide an unreasonable sense of security, or locks us down for 5 more years, or whatever is another.

win %
Lon Kruger .628
Self .765
Weber yr 1-3 .848
yr 4-6 .700
yr 7-9 .569 (vs. .675 lifetime)
Groce overall is .578

We didn't fire the .675 lifetime Bruce Weber, we fired the .569 Weber who brought us from a national runner up & after inheriting a team that produced one of the best 3 yrs periods in our history. So you can look at the average numbers and think Bruce was a much better coach or you can look at the criminally bad drop in the program under Bruce Weber...in my mind what Bruce Weber did to our program is much worse, he took a program from one of the best in the nation in 2005 to mediocre to bad in his last year. Groce has maintained the mediocre to bad, but Weber got us here. Looking at average numbers for Weber is cherry picking. There are lots of arguments to fire Groce, this comparison to Weber is just a very bad one.

Weber drove our program straight into the ditch. He's working hard at doing the same thing at K State. Currently 17-11 overall and 6-9 in B12.

Inherited a solid team from Frank Martin and has made it worse. Has yet to win a single tourney game and may not get there this year.

He's a mid major guy who is out of his element. Wrong hire at IL and wrong at KSU.
 
#6,363      

The Pontiff

Chicago, IL
Until you realize Jaylon Tate was also ranked higher than TJL as a recruit.
Sorry to cherry-pick a post from a few days ago, but exactly what services rated Tate higher than TJL?
  • Tate was unranked by Rivals and was ranked #208 on 247sports composite list for 2013.
  • TJL was ranked #147 by Rivals and #142 on 247sports for 2016.
 
#6,364      
Sorry to cherry-pick a post from a few days ago, but exactly what services rated Tate higher than TJL?
  • Tate was unranked by Rivals and was ranked #208 on 247sports composite list for 2013.
  • TJL was ranked #147 by Rivals and #142 on 247sports for 2016.

I guess I remembered Tate as being just outside the top 100. My bad.
 
#6,369      
You conveniently left out this season..what excuse can you conjure for that? Get a grip on reality dude.

Do not want to be a complete apologist for jg. But this year he had hopes as I did that our "expierenced" seniors TA, JT, and MT were going to have more assists than turnovers, and score few more points with the minutes they got at beginning of season. Now that freshman is leading offense, we look better overall.
 
#6,370      

Illini4Reel

Champaign, IL.
Too bad Erik Spoelstra and the Miami Heat aren't doing a little worse. He grew up in Illinois and would possibly return to his roots to coach the Illini. :rock::illinois:
 
#6,371      
Counterpoint: Tate is the same exact player as when he arrived, MT is the same player as when he arrived, etc

Yep. I get it. There is two sides to every argument. Could say jg should have recognized that TA and MT after injuries just maybe step slow on defense, and probably slow down the offense more than help it. Glad he players coach and stuck with seniors, but simply waited too long and most prob will cause those 3 or 4 extra losses that cost season.

As for JT. Same issue. Works hard. But still makes too many judgement mistakes, and no threat on o. Got too many minutes early in year.
 
#6,372      
Early season games should have been to experiment with TJL and various lineups. Pressure to win games probably affected decisions. In his defense TJL injuries surely slowed down his development as he was unable to start earlier. KN could not play in those early games as he was not eligible.

Biggest surprise to me was TA's play in non-conference and complete collapse in conference games. Based on non-conference it was not recognized how badly TJL would be needed. JCL's injury did not help either.

Would not retain JG based on these conditions but would not hire a coach who I did not strongly believe would take us back to a yearly contender. Don't consider the recruiting disadvantages of short term contract as we don't have scholarships available anyway. It is possible that JG is still learning from his mistakes and will improve but not willing to bet the future.
 
#6,373      

jmwillini

Tolono, IL
Just because we have no had new candidates and the thread is turning into a fire Groce or keep Groce thread. Following the Cuonzo Martin Charlie Moore theme, I am throwing out another impossible scenario.

$5 million to Jay Wright and Jalen Brunson follows him here. :D
 
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