2017 Coaching Carousel

Second and Chalmers · Dec 31, 2016

LurkLongandProsper said:
You're right, we could easily give him a smokescreen extension that wouldn't add much in the way of additional buyout $ or anything like that.

Which would be absolutely transparent to recruits.

Credit where it's due, Groce has done a darned good job of recruiting while on the hot seat, but to cut his legs out from under him going forward with a nakedly hollow extension would seem to be cutting off your nose to spite your face if you really believe Groce is your future.

Then all of a sudden you have a random big year but guys like Dosunmu and Finke have gone elsewhere and you've killed your momentum before it even arrives.

The faux extension is only valuable as a scheme to trap Tilmon and Frazier, which is a plan doomed to failure.

Second and Chalmers · Dec 31, 2016

blmillini said:
it wouldn't matter if he had a Kentucky class.

That would matter. We need to be able to understand the colossal gulf between the magic fifth star pixie dust this board is currently high on versus having 3 of the top 10 players in a historically strong and deep class like UK's current freshmen.

LurkLongandProsper · Dec 31, 2016

Second and Chalmers said:
Also, we need to decouple "great class" from "we're going to immediately win more games".

That's not how freshmen work. Jeremiah Timon has a higher ceiling than Malcolm Hill did as a HS senior, but he will be nowhere near the player as a college freshman that Hill is right now. If he can be Mike Thorne with a little more athleticism next year and give us 20-25 good minutes, that would be a damn fine freshman contribution.

Right, that's part of what I was getting at, although you worded that far more succinctly. Obviously the very best recruits can come in and be legitimately plug and play. But that's something top 15 guys can do, and after that, the likelihood is far lower. It's not AS exaggerated as in football whereas you ideally don't want them to even have to play for 2 years, but realistically this class, while good, shouldn't be expected to be 2-3 of our best players every night for a year or two.

Second and Chalmers said:
Which would be absolutely transparent to recruits.

Credit where it's due, Groce has done a darned good job of recruiting while on the hot seat, but to cut his legs out from under him going forward with a nakedly hollow extension would seem to be cutting off your nose to spite your face if you really believe Groce is your future.

Then all of a sudden you have a random big year but guys like Dosunmu and Finke have gone elsewhere and you've killed your momentum before it even arrives.

The faux extension is only valuable as a scheme to trap Tilmon and Frazier, which is a plan doomed to failure.

I agree, and am also opposed any sort of extension. You need at least 3 years on one to not just be directly insulting the intelligence of prospects and their family/coaches. Realistically, we also need to treat Groce with some level of respect in that process as well, and giving him a sham extension really disservices all parties.

WesterveltVictoryCigar · Dec 31, 2016

Second and Chalmers said:
The faux extension is only valuable as a scheme to trap Tilmon and Frazier, which is a plan doomed to failure.

They've both signed an NLOI, which is the only thing "trapping" them, any extension would have zero impact there.

LurkLongandProsper · Dec 31, 2016

WesterveltVictoryCigar said:
They've both signed an NLOI, which is the only thing "trapping" them, any extension would have zero impact there.

Some folks have suggested retaining him just to get these kids to enroll, as if they can't just transfer out later, which is what he was alluding to with the "trapping"

Second and Chalmers · Dec 31, 2016

WesterveltVictoryCigar said:
They've both signed an NLOI, which is the only thing "trapping" them, any extension would have zero impact there.

No, I mean in terms of getting them on campus where they would have to sit a year if they want to transfer after the then-inevitable Groce firing next year.

They would transfer anyway, and they wouldn't be alone. That's how multi-year dead in the water coach situations end. It's a bad idea that sounds "clever".

WesterveltVictoryCigar · Dec 31, 2016

LurkLongandProsper said:
Some folks have suggested retaining him just to get these kids to enroll, as if they can't just transfer out later, which is what he was alluding to with the "trapping"

The comment was regarding an extension, not retention.

Second and Chalmers said:
No, I mean in terms of getting them on campus where they would have to sit a year if they want to transfer after the then-inevitable Groce firing next year.

They would transfer anyway, and they wouldn't be alone. That's how multi-year dead in the water coach situations end. It's a bad idea that sounds "clever".

Well that really doesn't make any sense. You're going to make the fire/extend decision after this coming spring. If he's not fired, then they're still going to enroll in the fall regardless.

If an extension was needed to get them on board, it would already have been done.

The extension would be for 2018/2019 recruits and while it's mainly for show, I'm not sure recruits would really be moved one way or the other, either they think Groce is the guy or they don't. IMO it's mainly to avoid any speculation by the media and/or to avoid having to answer questions about it.

MadSeason · Dec 31, 2016

We have seen this movie before. When Jereme Richmond and Meyers Leonard arrived to join a veteran team with quite a bit of depth we thought their talent alone would overcome Weber's many shortcomings.

If people are expecting us to be able to roll the ball out there and win based on next years class regardless of coaching, they will be disappointed.

However, there is reason for excitement in that it does have enough talent to mix with what we have returning to make a very good team for the next few years.

If you believe Groce is not a good coach, he has not shown the ability to out recruit his failings in those areas.

If you believe Groce is a good coach who hasn't had the right players for his system, next year might bring enough of an infusion to get him rolling in right direction. Problem is, that it shouldn't take 5-6 years to get rolling

Second and Chalmers · Dec 31, 2016

MadSeason said:
We have seen this movie before. When Jereme Richmond and Meyers Leonard arrived to join a veteran team with quite a bit of depth we thought their talent alone would overcome Weber's many shortcomings.

When Richmond and Leonard joined a veteran team with quite a bit of depth and talent, those two gave us next to nothing but the deep, experienced veteran team had a disappointing but not disastrous season with a comfortable NCAA bid.

Then the next year Leonard blew up into a lottery pick and the floor fell out of the program.

We have that deep, talented, experienced team again. We will not have it next year.

People who think one-and-done NBA first round caliber freshmen (which Tilmon is not, period, but go ahead and indulge that delusion for these purposes) and NCAA success are one and the same need to go Google the tale of a fellow named Lorenzo Romar.

Second and Chalmers · Dec 31, 2016

WesterveltVictoryCigar said:
Well that really doesn't make any sense. You're going to make the fire/extend decision after this coming spring. If he's not fired, then they're still going to enroll in the fall regardless.

Right, but when they are very publicly treated as pawns for their dead man walking coach, they're going to say sayonara after their freshman seasons. If not earlier.

The trapping proposal is just the Cubit extension with a better sales pitch to the fans. It is not a better sales pitch to the guys who are going to pour their blood sweat and tears into the 2017-18 season. Which is something Whitman understands, giving me confidence he wouldn't be that stupid.

LurkLongandProsper · Dec 31, 2016

WesterveltVictoryCigar said:
The comment was regarding an extension, not retention.

I thought we had all agreed that there was no realistic scenario in which we retain Groce without an extension? Reminder, our AD is Josh Whitman, not Paul Kowalcyzk. We will not have John Groce as the head coach next year without some form of an extension.

WesterveltVictoryCigar · Dec 31, 2016

LurkLongandProsper said:
I thought we had all agreed that there was no realistic scenario in which we retain Groce without an extension? Reminder, our AD is Josh Whitman, not Paul Kowalcyzk. We will not have John Groce as the head coach next year without some form of an extension.

I certainly hope that's the case. My point was simply that the extension is more for the future recruits, not those already signed. Those 2017 signees are looking at how this year's team is doing and his job status decision in March/April.

If his current contract went through 2020 instead of 2019, would there be any talk of an extension? Unlikely.

Obelix · Jan 1, 2017

LurkLongandProsper said:
You're right, we could easily give him a smokescreen extension that wouldn't add much in the way of additional buyout $ or anything like that. You've made a good point here.

That said, I don't think an extension would do anything positive if it's just to kick the can a year on finding a new coach. I don't think our roster next year is set up to succeed more than it is this year (on paper), and it seems that would only further fracture/distance the fanbase who is still actively engaged with the program. But, if it turned out JW didn't like any of the available candidates as a fit and went that route, so be it.

The extension is not a smokescreen, just it is not a key part of the decision to retain or not. If Whitman decides to keep Groce, he will give him an extension, which UI will have plenty of leverage to negotiate terms.

It is not that Whitman will give Groce an extension wanting to fire him next year, no matter the pool of candidates. There are always good coaches to go after, whether it is this year, next year, or the year after. There is never a shortage of candidates.

Posters also make it sound that UI/Whitman will be able to conduct a search, negotiate with candidates, etc. and if they don't like the way it is shaping out, just revert of extending Groce with a desire to fire him the next year. As said many times in previous posts, if that was the case, schools with more extensive networks, connections, and budgets (e.g., UCLA, Oregon, OK State) would have already avoided embarrassing searches.

Ryllini · Jan 1, 2017

I think for the most part we all love Coach Groce as a person, I know I do and I hope he works out here as our coach. I will continue to follow the speculation on coaching candidates, but for now I am all in with this staff and team. I love this school, team, and coaching staff,and I will whoever wears the colors. I'm all in. I want him to succeed and I don't want to be unfair to Coach or the team by picking out our perfect candidate until our leader, AD Whitman, makes that decision for us. I want to win and I don't care who that is. The seat is warm, but he is still sitting in it and deserves our support. Fill the seats at the SFC and give all the help we can give. If not for Coach, do it for the players, the school, and community. Go Illini!

jonnymo · Jan 1, 2017

Second and Chalmers said:
Thomas' vision of Illinois Basketball was to find the coach who would go into Chicago and win the recruitments for the Jabari Parkers and Jahlil Okafors, to make Illinois the destination school for the best athletes in Illinois (in every sport). It was for Illinois to be in Illinois what Ohio State is in Ohio.

Illinois basketball is a very good job. Its ability to accomplish that task is not why. So there was an asymmetry between the AD's vision and the value coaches and agents saw in the job. Thomas' single mindedness about what he saw as the mission led him to zero in on candidates who fit into the narrow and ill-fitting box he created, regardless of quality.

Whitman is a rookie and a wild card, but he has a lot to sell, he truly understands the school, and if a coaching search is the way it's heading, I trust he'll come up with a fit.

Whitman proved himself a better AD/salesman before he was officially hired than Thomas ever dreamed of being. As an AD Thomas isn't even allowed to carry Whitman's jock strap. I believe he proved that day he was unofficially hired he is one of the nation's (yes I said nation's) best AD's. Here's why.

Since this thread is dedicated to "hiring coaches" that's what I'll keep it at.

As for MT..... He was so scared and incapable of making coaching hires that he exclusively used hiring firms. It got to the point that the news gazette and Chicago papers did write ups on the obscene amount of money he was spending on these "search firms". So not only was he not smart enough he was to fearful to make coaching hires on his own.

JW on the other hand. I've been told by a person that knows him personally from his playing days here, that since his first AD gig he always has coaching lists that he has on every sport. He's always adding and deleting from them. So yes he currently has a list of potential golf coaches and football coaches even though those spots are current safe spots. He's very thorough and educated on direction he's going. So basically he already has a list of coaches to potentially replace Groce in the event that "he must replace".

Before he was even officially hired he was out (secretly and proactively) selling the program to donors, searching for football coach replacement, and securing finances for the hire (turned out to be Lovie) of said football coach.

People were freaking out losing their minds when on his first day on the job HE FIRED our lame duck coach halfway through the current recruiting cycle. But see JW is always proactive and confident and smart and doesn't need a search firm.

So when JW declared "we will win" I for one believe him. I also know that when/if the time comes to replace Groce he will make a well researched and educated hire not wasting money on a search firm. I also know the money will be there for the coach he will hire. So IMO don't aim low in this thread.

jonnymo · Jan 1, 2017

Serious Late said:
And one of the things I said was "Kudos to Whitman for landing Lovie." I am not saying it wasn't a quality hire at all or that there wasn't some work on Whitman's end to make it happen. Simply that his ability to hire Lovie says nothing of his ability to replace Groce after the season.

Now, if Hoiberg gets fired during the NBA season and Whitman has the stones to make a change before the college season concludes (I am not saying he should, just IF) then we probably have a much closer to similar situation as we had with Lovie and my faith in Whitman's ability to get the best guy would go up.

I just don't think things have changed that dramatically from the last time we went through this. Illinois' perception as a program is down, substantially, from what most of us remember it being and what it can be. Is Whitman charismatic enough to overcome that? I hope so, and I am not saying he can't. Just that there isn't this conclusion that can already be drawn about his abilities in this arena, and there are forces bigger than Whitman which will likely keep the Marshall's, Mack's and Miller's from coming here.

Aaaanndd the perception of the football program was great??????

SescIllini · Jan 1, 2017

Ryllini said:
I think for the most part we all love Coach Groce as a person, I know I do and I hope he works out here as our coach. I will continue to follow the speculation on coaching candidates, but for now I am all in with this staff and team. I love this school, team, and coaching staff,and I will whoever wears the colors. I'm all in. I want him to succeed and I don't want to be unfair to Coach or the team by picking out our perfect candidate until our leader, AD Whitman, makes that decision for us. I want to win and I don't care who that is. The seat is warm, but he is still sitting in it and deserves our support. Fill the seats at the SFC and give all the help we can give. If not for Coach, do it for the players, the school, and community. Go Illini!

Glad to see others feel the same way.

SescIllini · Jan 1, 2017

LurkLongandProsper said:
People are vastly overrating the quality of this class. If anything, this should be the standard of a 'meh' class at Illinois. 1 outside RSCI top 200, 3 outside RSCI top 100, and 1 top 50. It's a solid/decent class. This class is not going to come in and make us significantly better. Remember, our depth chart at C, assuming class holds, will be Tilmon and Finke, and our PG depth chart will be TJL/Frazier/Damonte(?). That's a lot of really inexperienced (if only he'd play TJL...) minutes at key positions.

Outside of Tilmon, nobody in this class is a "keep the coach for the recruit" caliber guy, and Tilmon is currently #25 RSCI. Hardly a Lonzo Ball caliber recruit (for your Steve Alford comp) -- and also, Alford has been recruiting at a higher level than us, and has made the tournament in 2/3 of his seasons at UCLA (his hot seat was because he missed the tournament, which is not acceptable at UCLA, and should not be here, either -- let alone missing in going on 4 consecutive years).

IMO, we've seen more than enough of John Groce to know he isn't a long term leader for our team. If we didn't have to extend him to retain him for next year, then i could see keeping him if you don't love the available replacement options, but we'd have to extend him, and that's not worth it. The recruiting class is definitely not a reason in my mind to keep him. We should be able to sign multiple top 100 kids a year, especially when we have 6 rides. And he's shown us absolutely nothing on the court with guys who didn't have at least 2 years of development under Weber.

Personally, I am fully committed to Capel/Archie/Jacobson as my top 3 targets, personally. I'm a little surprised Capel hasn't had more support in these discussions.

I think you make some excellent points regarding the recruits. Looking at tools instead of rankings I think this class answers a lot of weaknesses. Adding Mark Smith and a defensive talented big would be huge. Damonte and Smith would be great size, athleticism, and skill at the PG and SG positions. I like Frazier, I just think his ceiling isn't as high as those two.

JoseyWales83 · Jan 1, 2017

jonnymo said:
Whitman proved himself a better AD/salesman before he was officially hired than Thomas ever dreamed of being. As an AD Thomas isn't even allowed to carry Whitman's jock strap. I believe he proved that day he was unofficially hired he is one of the nation's (yes I said nation's) best AD's. Here's why.

Since this thread is dedicated to "hiring coaches" that's what I'll keep it at.

As for MT..... He was so scared and incapable of making coaching hires that he exclusively used hiring firms. It got to the point that the news gazette and Chicago papers did write ups on the obscene amount of money he was spending on these "search firms". So not only was he not smart enough he was to fearful to make coaching hires on his own.

JW on the other hand. I've been told by a person that knows him personally from his playing days here, that since his first AD gig he always has coaching lists that he has on every sport. He's always adding and deleting from them. So yes he currently has a list of potential golf coaches and football coaches even though those spots are current safe spots. He's very thorough and educated on direction he's going. So basically he already has a list of coaches to potentially replace Groce in the event that "he must replace".

Before he was even officially hired he was out (secretly and proactively) selling the program to donors, searching for football coach replacement, and securing finances for the hire (turned out to be Lovie) of said football coach.

People were freaking out losing their minds when on his first day on the job HE FIRED our lame duck coach halfway through the current recruiting cycle. But see JW is always proactive and confident and smart and doesn't need a search firm.

So when JW declared "we will win" I for one believe him. I also know that when/if the time comes to replace Groce he will make a well researched and educated hire not wasting money on a search firm. I also know the money will be there for the coach he will hire. So IMO don't aim low in this thread.

Great post and agree with everything said.

FeelYourPaign · Jan 1, 2017

jonnymo said:
Whitman proved himself a better AD/salesman before he was officially hired than Thomas ever dreamed of being. As an AD Thomas isn't even allowed to carry Whitman's jock strap. I believe he proved that day he was unofficially hired he is one of the nation's (yes I said nation's) best AD's. Here's why.

Since this thread is dedicated to "hiring coaches" that's what I'll keep it at.

As for MT..... He was so scared and incapable of making coaching hires that he exclusively used hiring firms. It got to the point that the news gazette and Chicago papers did write ups on the obscene amount of money he was spending on these "search firms". So not only was he not smart enough he was to fearful to make coaching hires on his own.

JW on the other hand. I've been told by a person that knows him personally from his playing days here, that since his first AD gig he always has coaching lists that he has on every sport. He's always adding and deleting from them. So yes he currently has a list of potential golf coaches and football coaches even though those spots are current safe spots. He's very thorough and educated on direction he's going. So basically he already has a list of coaches to potentially replace Groce in the event that "he must replace".

Before he was even officially hired he was out (secretly and proactively) selling the program to donors, searching for football coach replacement, and securing finances for the hire (turned out to be Lovie) of said football coach.

People were freaking out losing their minds when on his first day on the job HE FIRED our lame duck coach halfway through the current recruiting cycle. But see JW is always proactive and confident and smart and doesn't need a search firm.

So when JW declared "we will win" I for one believe him. I also know that when/if the time comes to replace Groce he will make a well researched and educated hire not wasting money on a search firm. I also know the money will be there for the coach he will hire. So IMO don't aim low in this thread.

I was pointing out to my wife last night that these guys (head coaches at P5 schools) make somewhere between $1.5 Million and $5 million per year. Obviously a huge range, but every single one of them is very well off. To the point where marginal dollars only really mean something to their pride.

and the point of that observation is that MT couldn't get Brad Stevens or Shaka Smart to talk to him seriously. Yes, they were getting a raise to come to Illinois, but as someone else pointed out, they both knew they were going to get paid. Somewhere and pretty soon. So, with that in mind, why work for a jagoff. Sorry, MT, but that is your reputation. On the other hand, JG wasn't a big time coach yet and he wanted to get paid. So, we got him.

The goal of the next basketball coach search . . . whenever it happens . . . is to attract a guy who is already in or near that level. And that guy, imo, might well want to work for JW where he wouldn't have wanted to work for MT.

complete agreement with your post and just one more observation on how we are better served going forward.

jonnymo · Jan 1, 2017

FeelYourPaign said:
I was pointing out to my wife last night that these guys (head coaches at P5 schools) make somewhere between $1.5 Million and $5 million per year. Obviously a huge range, but every single one of them is very well off. To the point where marginal dollars only really mean something to their pride.

and the point of that observation is that MT couldn't get Brad Stevens or Shaka Smart to talk to him seriously. Yes, they were getting a raise to come to Illinois, but as someone else pointed out, they both knew they were going to get paid. Somewhere and pretty soon. So, with that in mind, why work for a jagoff. Sorry, MT, but that is your reputation. On the other hand, JG wasn't a big time coach yet and he wanted to get paid. So, we got him.

The goal of the next basketball coach search . . . whenever it happens . . . is to attract a guy who is already in or near that level. And that guy, imo, might well want to work for JW where he wouldn't have wanted to work for MT.

complete agreement with your post and just one more observation on how we are better served going forward.

Here's just one MT jagoff story......

When he hired JG me and a group of my friends were sitting around the cowboy monkey beer garden. In walks MT, JG and two others. We sat there observing them and a conversation we had was how MT never smiles and in fact actually scowls mostly.

Anyhow long story short, my buddy orders 4 shots too their table. The waitress takes the drinks to them and we see her point our way. They all look and raise their shot except for MT. Then JG comes over smiling shot in hand and drinks it while spending about 5 minutes talking and joking with us. MT sat the entire time almost not moving and glaring at us. Unbelievable!

WesterveltVictoryCigar · Jan 1, 2017

jonnymo said:
cowboy monkey beer garden

Just wanted to read this again.

jonnymo · Jan 1, 2017

WesterveltVictoryCigar said:
Just wanted to read this again.

Haha cowboy monkey is the absolute best beer garden in central Illinois

Edit: Oh crap I hope I didn't just start a best beer garden debate on here like we get in food debates &#55357;&#56832;

Joel Goodson · Jan 1, 2017

jonnymo said:
Here's just one MT jagoff story......

MT jagoff stories...haha. Probably deserves its own thread.

Rob07 · Jan 1, 2017

Second and Chalmers said:
It never ceases to amaze how much work the vaguest whiff of ties to the school is able to do in these analyses for some people.

Nagy's ties to Illinois aren't any factor in my consideration (in fact, wasn't aware of them until you mentioned it... I'm 30 so wasn't really aware of assistant coaches in the Henson era.) Nor am I really familiar with him as a person or the system he runs. I'm happy to be educated. I was making my assessment based purely off of his record at SDSU: took the school from Div II, to Div I, from bottom of its league, to finishing first in the conference and making the NCAA tournament consistently. That says "program builder" to me.

Eric Musselman as a college head coach: 1.5 seasons, not much that you can say about his ability to build a program
Kevin Keatts as a college head coach: 2.5 seasons, not a ton of track record but looks very promising (went from bottom of conference to top of conference and NCAAs), maybe I underrated him; not familiar with how he did it (lucky/riding one good player?)
Will Wade as a college head coach: 3.5 seasons, improved Chattanooga from 8-10 conf to 12-4 and then 15-3, but did not win conference or make NCAAs; inherited a good VCU program; promising but TBD if he can maintain momentum

Not saying any of these guys are *bad* choices but don't think they are slam dunk candidates either. I'd say Bruce Weber had a better resume than Musselman, Keatts or Wade and Groce's (which has been lamented a number of times) record at Ohio was pretty comparable.