2017 Coaching Carousel

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#3,001      
BananaShampoo
I'm not sold on Hoiberg at all. Would much rather have a solid x's and o's guy who can at least recruit decently but who has a longer and more established record of college coaching success. I don't think Hoiberg had enough time at Iowa St to show that he could sustain success outside of getting lucky with some very good transfers and one or two decent but not great recruiting classes. He was good, don't get me wrong, but there's still too many unknowns IMO with regards to him being the guy to take us back to an elite level. Besides, he's an Iowa State guy. Wouldn't he just bolt for there as soon as that job comes open again?
 
#3,002      
TCTORNADO
Hoiberg tends to recruit high risk type of recruits. He had 5 or 6 arrests in 2015. One of his more famous was Nick Noskowiak.:)
 
#3,004      
LurkLongandProsper
TownieMatt said:
I've had my fingers crossed that somehow Hoiberg would fall into our laps. But watching the Bulls self destruct last night also made me wonder if he'll be disliked in Chicago to the point where recruit becomes a challenge. Or if he'll even want to stick around the area if he gets canned.

Regardless, I dug into his recruiting record at Iowa State (via 247sports)

2011 - 74th nationally, 8th in Big 12
2012 - 41st nationally, 4th in Big 12
2013 - 37th nationally, 4th in Big 12
2014 - 115th nationally, 9th in Big 12
2015 - 75th nationally, 10 in Big 12

Certainly nothing to write home about, although he seems to have built his success on those two decent 2012/2013 classes. I still think pairing Hoiberg with the right assistants to recruit Chicago could be really successful. All that being said, I think there's almost no chance Hoiberg comes here.
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Worth noting with Hoiberg that a few of his best players at ISU were off the transfer market, so recruiting rankings are not going to tell the full story of his recruiting there.
 
#3,005      
golferjohn1970
Nojo to Wojo

I don't think Wojo is the answer right now I know he has won two huge games but his overall record and resume isn't that great!! He will get a bigger job in 3-4 years.
 
#3,006      
Deleted member 380722
The Pontiff said:
You may be thinking of the old A-10, before Xavier, Temple, Butler and Charlotte left. The current A-10 roster of 14 teams is bloated with some sorry programs right now, according to KenPom. Almost 2/3rds of their teams this year sport a triple-digit KenPom rating.

Dayton - #39 KenPom
Rhode Island - 49
VCU - 51
Davidson - 91
St. Bonaventure - 92
LaSalle - 102
Massachusetts -113
George Mason - 119
Richmond - 120
St. Joe - 128
GW - 170
Fordham - 204
Duquesne - 223
St. Louis - 310

Now the MVC is in the same boat, with 70% of their members having a 3-digit KenPom rating. But their top two teams are higher than the A-10's, though the 9th and 10th teams in the A-10 rate higher than the same in the MVC.

Wichita St. - #22 KenPom
Illinois St. - 34
Loyola - 95
Missouri St. - 117
Northern Iowa - 155
Evansville - 157
SIU - 166
Indiana St. - 196
Drake - 217
Bradley - 235

Bottom line, both coaches are big fishes in a small pond and unless they can elevate into the Big East, like other similar basketball-only schools did (Xavier and Butler), they're going to be relegated to fighting for their conferences' 1-2 NCAA berths each year.



So in Archie's case, why not consider a hefty pay raise to coach in one of the most prestigious conferences, where 6-7 schools per year get into the Dance and often are legit title contenders.

And while Marshall already makes some serious coin, is it realistic that he catches lightning in a bottle twice at WSU? Under-rated guys like VanVleet, Baker, and Early were probably generational players there and to have three like that at the same time isn't likely to happen again.
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No, I'm thinking current A-10. Forget about this years Kenpom. The Atlantic 10 is consistently a better conference. When is the last time Illinois State or SIU has been to the tournament? How about anybody other than UNI or Wichita State? Numerous A-10 teams have been successful enough to make strong NCAA runs. I don't think a coach at any school would say the MVC is better than the A-10...
 
#3,007      
UofI08
Because I'm bored at work. Using LLP's spreadsheet, my totally random top 10:
Grand Slam hires
1. Tony Bennett - don't see it happening, but has to be #1
2. Chris Mack - probably not happening but doesn't hurt to call
3. Archie Miller - I think he'll end up as good as his brother
Homeruns
4. Buzz Williams - really like him for some reason but huge contract with VT
5. Greg Marshall - great coach but hesitant on him for some reason
6. Fred Hoiberg - should be a homerun but the defense and recruiting worries me
Probably solid
7/8. Cuonzo Martin/Kevin Keatts - can't decide
good recruiter with experience but not great results vs up-and-comer that seems to have the right makeup to be successful at higher levels
9. Greg McDermott - great results at smaller schools but failure at ISU is concerning
10. Eric Musselman - like the idea of a NBA coach but needs more college seasoning

*Not at all based on signability; a good chance the top 6 wouldn't even consider us
 
#3,008      
WesterveltVictoryCigar
haasi said:
Raised by the news that Jerrance is recruiting Mark Smith to KU -


1. If we hire Jerrance as HC this spring, could he keep our whole class and get us Smith?


2. Is it reasonable to hire Jerrance given his lack of HC experience, and if so, are there any experienced guys (possible former HCs) we could bring on as assistants to cushion against his inexperience?
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Don't get the fascination with Jerrance. If he wasn't an ex-Illini, would you want him hired? Not a chance.
 
#3,009      
Ransom Stoddard
haasi said:
Raised by the news that Jerrance is recruiting Mark Smith to KU -


1. If we hire Jerrance as HC this spring, could he keep our whole class and get us Smith?
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Doubtful, and really doubtful, and I'm not sure why we'd hire an HC with no experience just to get a likely one-and-done.


2. Is it reasonable to hire Jerrance given his lack of HC experience, and if so, are there any experienced guys (possible former HCs) we could bring on as assistants to cushion against his inexperience?
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No. The HC usually hires his own assistants, so there's no real guarantees that his staff would cover up his weaknesses. Even saying that sentence sounds wrong--I think assistants should be hired based on a specific need, to to supplement the shortcomings of an HC.

I have way more faith in JW that he will hire the right guy, not just a former Illini guy who has ties to one particular recruit.

WesterveltVictoryCigar said:
Don't get the fascination with Jerrance. If he wasn't an ex-Illini, would you want him hired? Not a chance.
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^^^This x 1000000000
 
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#3,010      
haasi
WesterveltVictoryCigar said:
Don't get the fascination with Jerrance. If he wasn't an ex-Illini, would you want him hired? Not a chance.
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Nope, not a chance.
Ransom Stoddard said:
Doubtful, and really doubtful, and I'm not sure why we'd hire an HC with no experience just to get a likely one-and-done.
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Not to get a one and done. The idea would be that he has significant local ties and has been an excellent recruiter - so not only to stabilize the current 2017 class but also he would seem to be a guy with the capacity to bring in more talent going forward.
No. The HC usually hires his own assistants, so there's no real guarantees that his staff would cover up his weaknesses. Even saying that sentence sounds wrong--I think assistants should be hired based on a specific need, to to supplement the shortcomings of an HC.
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Agree that HC usually gets full control over his staff and normally doesn't need to hire assistants to cover up his own glaring weaknesses, but maybe he'd be receptive to bringing someone very experienced and maybe there's somebody out there who cleanly fits the bill.
I have way more faith in JW that he will hire the right guy, not just a former Illini guy who has ties to one particular recruit.
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I don't think this is about "one particular recruit", but aside from that I agree with the sentiment. I think we can do better and get someone who is a promising recruiter with good HC experience/resume. But basically just wanted to test the question of whether there were circumstances that would warrant considering Jerrance notwithstanding his lack of experience. I see your answer and WVC's is a resounding no. Wondering whether there are any other views.
 
#3,011      
Second and Chalmers
The Pontiff said:
Wonder then how that team ended up #10 on KenPom that season.
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WesterveltVictoryCigar said:
Depends on which ranking system you like, I suppose. Many had them ranked in the 40s. The consensus was 31, but if you check the standard deviation it seems they were a difficult team to figure out.

Massey composite
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I wanted to jump back and touch on this. The reason there was such a variance in statistical views on Cuonzo's last Tennessee team is because of the following:

3-12 in games decided by single digits.
21-1 in games decided by double digits.

And that's not just cupcakes. They won their three NCAA games by 13, 19, and 20, they beat Vandy by 38, Mizzou by 27, Xavier by 26, Wake Forest by 21, at Auburn by 28 and the cherry on top, they beat ACC Champion and #1 seed Virginia by 35!


KenPom loooooves all those good wins by large margins, and is relatively forgiving to close losses. Different statistical systems wouldn't put as much weight on the margins of blowouts and care more about stuff like losing twice to a bad Texas A&M team.

Usually that stuff tends to come out in the wash. That Tennessee team was a rare example of one where different methodological choices would lead to very different results.
 
#3,013      
ILHoff
haasi said:
Raised by the news that Jerrance is recruiting Mark Smith to KU -


1. If we hire Jerrance as HC this spring, could he keep our whole class and get us Smith?


2. Is it reasonable to hire Jerrance given his lack of HC experience, and if so, are there any experienced guys (possible former HCs) we could bring on as assistants to cushion against his inexperience?
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I'm not even sure If Jerrance would be back as an assistant coach. But I will say that my number one guy as an assistant would be Dennis Gates at Florida St. I think he would be a perfect fit.
 
#3,014      
The Pontiff
Illini4Reel said:
Whitman has to call up Fred Hoiberg after tonight's game. We could get him so cheap because Chicago will be paying his contract out, which is large. Right?
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If Hoiberg quits, his contract is void, leaving about $15MM on the table. Don't see him quitting.

Now could he get fired by April to fit JW's timeline? It's obviously not unusual for an NBA coach to be fired in-season, though I think if it were to happen, it would probably happen sooner than later. Derek Fisher got canned last year in early Feb, though the Knicks were more of a mess, at least record-wise and Phil wasn't enamored anymore with him. David Blatt was fired at the end of Jan last season, with the Cavs sitting on top of the standings, but differences in philosophies were cited. It'll be interesting if that's something that's happening within the Bulls' org.
 
#3,016      
MadSeason
Personally Jerrance had alot interest to me a few years ago. I'm getting to the point where I am questioning why he hasn't been hired elsewhere.

If it's the weed thing, then that is stupid and I could care less if he smokes. He needs to be a bit more careful however.

He's coached under a number of good coaches, is an outstanding recruiter so training wheels need to come off
 
#3,018      
Obelix
MadSeason said:
Personally Jerrance had alot interest to me a few years ago. I'm getting to the point where I am questioning why he hasn't been hired elsewhere.

If it's the weed thing, then that is stupid and I could care less if he smokes. He needs to be a bit more careful however.

He's coached under a number of good coaches, is an outstanding recruiter so training wheels need to come off
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Some of his choices have hurt him, but it is also that he may be waiting for the right opportunity. It is very dangerous to jump at any opportunity to coach a team at a lower level. There is a lot of difference between VCU, Tulsa, ISU and something like Northern Illinois. One wrong move can ruin your career, just ask Rob Judson.

Being at KU with Self, he will get his chance.
 
#3,019      
coryfor3
MadSeason said:
Personally Jerrance had alot interest to me a few years ago. I'm getting to the point where I am questioning why he hasn't been hired elsewhere.

If it's the weed thing, then that is stupid and I could care less if he smokes. He needs to be a bit more careful however.

He's coached under a number of good coaches, is an outstanding recruiter so training wheels need to come off
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You COULD care less? So that means you do care?

Well you may mean that you don't care but I can tell you an AD or a president who is responsible for putting a coach in charge of young men does not take it lightly that the coach is smoking up. Gotta hire someone who is an example (at the least on the exterior) for the team and a good representative (at least on the exterior) for the University. And how does a coach enforce suspensions for team members for the things he does all the time?

If you are going to do it, keep it at home and make sure you don't get caught or have it around the team.
 
#3,021      
MadSeason
coryfor3 said:
You COULD care less? So that means you do care?

Well you may mean that you don't care but I can tell you an AD or a president who is responsible for putting a coach in charge of young men does not take it lightly that the coach is smoking up. Gotta hire someone who is an example (at the least on the exterior) for the team and a good representative (at least on the exterior) for the University. And how does a coach enforce suspensions for team members for the things he does all the time?

If you are going to do it, keep it at home and make sure you don't get caught or have it around the team.
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I thought someone who pays so close attention to the language in my post would have noticed where i said he needs to be more careful.
 
#3,022      
The Pontiff
MadIllini4 said:
No, I'm thinking current A-10. Forget about this years Kenpom. The Atlantic 10 is consistently a better conference. When is the last time Illinois State or SIU has been to the tournament? How about anybody other than UNI or Wichita State? Numerous A-10 teams have been successful enough to make strong NCAA runs. I don't think a coach at any school would say the MVC is better than the A-10...
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Fair point and you're right, the A-10 is perceived as stronger and has been getting more teams in the Dance than the MVC, which except for Wichita St. over these past several years, its teams are not consistent.

The issue I have with the A-10, is although I would agree it's stronger than the MVC, it seems to be trending down in that it's becoming closer to an MVC than a Big East. And if those KenPoms are any indication, they may be lucky to get three teams in this year, which would be the third year in a row at that level, after enjoying 6 teams making it in 2014 and 5 teams the year before. Gotta think someone like Archie Miller has noticed this too.

NCAA tournament results by conference since Big East reorg...
A-10
  • 2016 = 3 teams (#7 Dayton, #8 St. Joe's, #10 VCU), record of 2-3
  • 2015 = 3 teams (#7 VCU, #10 Davidson, #11 Dayton), record of 2-3
  • 2014 = 6 teams (#5 VCU, #5 St. Louis, #6 UMass, #9 GW, #10 St. Joe's, #11 Dayton), record of 4-5
MVC
  • 2016 = 2 teams (#11 WSU, #11 N. Iowa), record of 3-2
  • 2015 = 2 teams (#5 N. Iowa, #7 WSU), record of 3-2
  • 2014 = 1 team (#1 WSU), record of 1-1
 
#3,023      
jmilt7
MadSeason said:
If it's the weed thing, then that is stupid and I could care less if he smokes. He needs to be a bit more careful however.
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coryfor3 said:
You COULD care less? So that means you do care?
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Not necessarily. It means that his level of caring could be even less than it already is. If "caring" is on a scale of one to ten with one being the lowest level of caring, then he could be at a two which means pretty much he doesn't care but his level of caring could drop one spot to an even lower level of caring. In other words, it is just possible for him to care less than he cares now. It can also say very little about one's level of caring at all.:sleep:
Dan feel free to delete this as it is way off topic and pedantic
 
#3,024      
MadSeason
jmilt7 said:
Not necessarily. It means that his level of caring could be even less than it already is. If "caring" is on a scale of one to ten with one being the lowest level of caring, then he could be at a two which means pretty much he doesn't care but his level of caring could drop one spot to an even lower level of caring. In other words, it is just possible for him to care less than he cares now. It can also say very little about one's level of caring at all.:sleep:
Dan feel free to delete this as it is way off topic and pedantic
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:thumb:
 
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