This was largely the point I was trying to make. I forgot all of the details of the KL signing, but you summarized it nicely. The point was we shouldn't have gone for so many 1 or 2 year guards when we could've been developing younger guys (Frazier is viewed as a savior of the program, but fringe top 100 guys are guys you should be able to land here anytime, should've pushed for one before TJL). Those decisions really hurt.
2017 Coaching Carousel
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This was largely the point I was trying to make. I forgot all of the details of the KL signing, but you summarized it nicely. The point was we shouldn't have gone for so many 1 or 2 year guards when we could've been developing younger guys (Frazier is viewed as a savior of the program, but fringe top 100 guys are guys you should be able to land here anytime, should've pushed for one before TJL). Those decisions really hurt.
TA going down actually did not affect the scholarship count, as Abrams was still on scholarship. But it affected the desire to filll that scholarship in August, which is very late.
I agree with the rest of your post though. You can blame Groce for his failure to recruit a B1G PG, but just filling a scholarship with a HS PG just to fill a scholarship, would have been the wrong approach. HS recruits affect recruiting the next season, offering Khalid Lewis had zero effect on recruiting. He was a freebie. If we had a HS recruit sitting next to Tate right now on the bench, it would have made zero difference other than negatively affecting recruiting.
Certainly, I don't mean to say go grab a kid ranked 300th, but we certainly could've landed a TJL/Frazier quality guy much earlier. Even a guy like Landry Shamet, who is averaging 11.4 pts, 3.4 ast on 49/46/81 at Wichita, who is one I felt we never truly pursued but would've benefited from having.
I do not think anyone would disagree with that, it is more your connection/comparison with Khalid Lewis that people are questioning. Khalid was really a freebie
Let's not also forget that the scholarship situation also drastically changed the same August as well. In addition to Abrams going down, Darius Paul was dismissed later that August. It was a disastrous month for Groce and the Illini.
No, you cannot throw out the year where he did far better than the previous coach did with the same group minus a lottery pick.
Call last year whatever you want, but it doesn't count for much. Losing three starters for the season changes things. That is not an excuse, that is a simple fact. Groce did well with what he had left.
Groce did overachieve that year, no doubt about that. Also, let's not forget the addition of McLaurin. Independent of just pure stats, Sam was undersized, but still provided some very valuable minutes in the post, which helped open up the perimeter for Paul.
He thought he had Abrams so went after a stretch recruit. He also thought he had a big man who would stay out of trouble. Not as easy to recruit until you build up relationships if your name doesn't start with a K. Sure he missed but we been missing the best recruits out of Chicago for 30 years. He had least seems to have built up a relationship with Simeon.
bredhartmann
- Centralia, IL
Welcome to Illinois Loyalty, where everything is made up and the +1's don't matter!
I Bomb
Stylin' and Profilin'
An opinion is made up?
I do not think anyone would disagree with that, it is more your connection/comparison with Khalid Lewis that people are questioning. Khalid was really a freebie
Let's not also forget that the scholarship situation also drastically changed the same August as well. In addition to Abrams going down, Darius Paul was dismissed later that August. It was a disastrous month for Groce and the Illini.
Certainly, I referenced Starks and Cosby as well, I legitimately just forgot the full scope of the KL circumstances other than he was a late 'whatever' add.
"It appears likely at this point" is based on nothing but fan speculation. Presenting it as anything other than fan speculation, as your wording did, is simply speaking in a baseless absolute, which is what matt is pointing out.
mattcoldagelli
- The Transfer Portal with Do Not Contact Tag
"Appears likely" doesn't really connote "Hey, this is just my take on this." It means you're looking at some other factors beyond your own opinion and assessing likelihood.
Anyone can include or throw out whatever years they want. We've missed the NCAAs three times in a row, and are on the fringes of the bubble for a fourth. We've never been over .500 in conference with Groce. We've been losing home games at a disappointing rate. We've been blown out multiple times. We've collapsed every January.
It can be rationalized or explained or justified or analyzed or excused an infinite number of ways, but that's just not getting it done as head coach at Illinois.
Are people just sadly resigned to never being able to hire a really good coach again? Geez, we once managed to get Lon Kruger and Bill Self here consecutively.
I want to get back to a national title game, and win it this time. That is never, ever, ever happening with John Groce. Try someone else. If it doesn't work? Move on and try again. We kept Weber for far too long, and it was a disaster. I don't want the same thing to happen again.
I agree. Groce certainly faced a daunting task coming in, having to replace too many classes/players. But the continuous reliance on 5th year transfers (rather than opportunistic use) 5 years into his tenure is certainly troublesome, and shows failure in main recruiting strategy.
Groce has been trying to recruit a quality PG ever since he set foot on campus WITH a healthy Abrams. The cobbling together of transfers like Paul, Crosby, Starks, Thorne, and Lewis was IMO Groce's biggest downfall in recruiting. When we missed on plan A guys we needed be be able to fill the roster with HS athletes that could grow in the system. The approach, for me, was flawed from the beginning.
Be careful, the "speaking in absolutes" crowd will have a problem with your statement.
Be careful, the "speaking in absolutes" crowd will have a problem with your statement.
I'm comfortable saying that. And if I'm wrong, who cares? National title!
This is something we saw both MT revenue hires do (jucos/5th years to jumpstart success) and it flopped in both instances. Hopefully, should a change be made, the next coach can feel firmly that he is safe to properly build rather than working on a firm 4-5 year build timeframe (as we are observing with Lovie).
It really feels, in hindsight, that both coaches felt incredible urgency to complete a quick build that involved cutting some corners and some impatient approaches. The question is if that is attributable to the AD, the coaches, or a combination. Regardless, I'd like to see that approach not be replicated going forward.
Good points...I'm sure Mike Thomas contributed greatly to the self-defeating quick-fix approaches used by Beckman and Groce. They both saw how he treated Weber and Zook. It's pretty clear Groce has learned his lesson on the recruiting front. The signs are encouraging that he's learned a few things about coaching too, but it's an awfully small sample size.
If we lose Tilman we are in the bottom of the league for two years even with a home run hire IMO. We are vulnerable there now if we have an injury and you are not going to get a rim protector with a fifth year transfer.
We don't have a rim protector now as-is, and this assumption that Tilmon* is a day 1 elite rim protector is pretty crazy to me. He projects well in that role, certainly, but foul trouble plagues most freshmen Cs playing in that role.
Sam Mclaurin was a plenty serviceable 5th year defender at the 5, so you can definitely get somebody on the 5th year market. You can also add a different HS center this or next year and be fine. This program's future success is not hinged upon whether or not Tilmon winds up enrolling.
It's this sort of short-term thinking that got us into this mess in the first place. A single recruit should never be able to hold an entire program hostage. And if a recruit matters that much to a program, then we definitely need to reevaluate the leadership of the program and the failure to create stability where missing out on ONE recruit can be that damaging.
89illinigrad
- Chicago
I think most people expect us to take a step back next year, no matter who the coach is. Having guys like Tilmon and Frazier can help ease that.
If we lose Frazier and Tilmon, the next coach will have to land some quality talent and fast, as this fanbase expects results and quickly. I don't think many of the people wanting Groce gone are going to give the next coach 3-4 years to get back to the upper echelon of the conference. Heck there are people saying that our next coach will produce a better record next year, just because he would not be Groce.
The grumblings for Groce started after the collapse at the end of year 3 and have only grown louder since. Will the next coach even get 3 years to turn it around?
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