2017 Coaching Carousel
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89illinigrad
- Chicago
Unless you're the Flying IlliniOr how difficult it would be for them to guard much bigger players?
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Or how difficult it would be for them to guard much bigger players?
Yeah I don't see them playing at the same time but realistically a couple good point guards, JCL and Finke shooting and a big, pretty tough to guard and it is becoming a smaller, quicker game
1. My comment was in regards to Cam and this statement
I was just pointing out that it was their job to get a PG and we are in year 5 before they were able to do so.
2. I have said that I like John Groce and wanted him to succeed.
3. IMHO - John Groce has had enough time, and I think it is time to move on.
4. My opinion is just like yours...it doesn't matter! Josh Whitman will make decesion not any of us. If Josh keeps Groce and he turns things around, I will be the first to admit that I was wrong.
I agree. But the Quinten Snyder dropping on signing day sure did put the coaching staff in a hole early on. Unfortunately, none of the other targets committed before TJL.
And if Michigan State hadn't hit 6 3's in a row down the stretch they wouldn't have even been in the game. It works both ways.
89illinigrad
- Chicago
Are we hitting our 3's just because we're unusually hot or are we hitting them because we're getting better looks.
I think it's more of the latter. It seems like Mav is getting better at passing out of the double team ( evidenced by his 4 assists last night) and that, along with TJL, makes the offense run better.
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I've been bearish on John Groce's ability to lead this team back to national relevance, but now that it feels likely he's retained, let's at least consider why he may be more successful going forward. Past performance is generally the best predictor of future outcomes, but it's in no way universally reliable. In fact, when you're talking about a complex chaotic system like the annual college basketball landscape, it can become a dangerous fallacy. Groce has a few things going for him as we look to the future:
1. When Groce arrived in Champaign, he stated explicitly that he ran a Point Guard-driven offense predicated on compromising the opposing defense by running a dynamic playmaker off ball screens. In so many words, that's what he said he wanted to do. When he won 29 games and made the S16 his last year at Ohio, that's incontrovertibly what he ran with DJ Cooper. Te'Jon Lucas is the first PG Groce has had at UI who can 1) get to the basket off the bounce, 2) shoot well enough to require defenders to go under screens, 3) find open shooters with regularity, and 4) defend quick opponents. Suddenly our offense and defense look completely different. Next year, Trent Frazier will likely be the backup PG and he's quicker than Lucas and by most accounts a better shooter. If Mark Smith commits, he's bigger than Lucas, a better shooter, and perhaps an equally gifted passer. Da'Monte projects more as a wing, but he's a good passer and ball handler, too. We might have four guys on the roster next year better at playing PG in Groce's system than anyone we've had the last five years. No one is giving Groce a pass for missing on so many Point Guards, but that issue would seem to be rectified going forward.
2. The way Groce has used Mav this year shows me that he's adjusted somewhat to Big Ten play. We were a donut offense in JG's first few years. Much of that was personnel-based, but I have a sense that Groce realized at some point you can't get good 3pt looks against physical, athletic B1G teams without threatening the paint. Tilmon is regarded as an advanced offensive player for his age. He's a good passer, has a few post moves, and can face up from 15 feet. I think (as a sophomore at least) he'll be able to do a lot of what Mav does offensively while providing something close to what Egwu did defensively - all while rebounding better than both.
3. As the season has progressed, I think it's safe to say that Lucas, JCL, Kipper, Aaron Jordan, Black, and Finke is a solid foundation going forward. We definitely need a 5th year banger to provide some rebounding and post defense off the bench. We could use another wing scorer as well. Too bad that DJ Williams doesn't seem to be a part of the future - he's got a lot of natural ability. However, this is a pretty decent roster.
4. Groce's teams have been decent to very good defensively apart from last year and the first 2/3 of this year. Now we look like a really good defensive team again. Incorporating Lucas and Nichols in the rotation has made a world of difference. Next year we may struggle a little while the freshmen get acclimated, but I don't think Groce is a bad defensive coach. Maybe this stretch can grow into the program's identity: relentless effort, ball denial, forcing turnovers. It's been fun to watch, right?
5. Groce is at least a pretty good recruiter. People like him. He's charismatic, passionate, and a genuinely good guy. He's got good relationships and the state and surrounding area are pumping out some of the best talent in two decades. I'm still not convinced that Groce is The Guy, but if you give him Tilmon, Mark Smith, Tim Finke, Dosunmu, Okoro, Liddell, Adam Miller, et al, can he get to the S16/E8? I say probably so. If Groce gets a 3yr extension, I think he can keep recruiting at a high level. As our talent level rises, I think we'll climb the conference ladder over the next 3-4 years.
6. If nothing else, Groce's guys will run through a brick wall for him. This team is like a family and they love Groce. Malcolm Hill loves him, Trent Frazier loves him. He's a good person and has a lot of high-level leadership traits. Maybe it's finally all coming together?
I've wanted a change. Frankly, I still do. However, I don't think keeping Groce will necessarily relegate the program to another decade of mediocrity. I think there's a fair chance he finds success here. I'd rather have Tony Bennett or Monty Williams. I'd maybe rather roll the dice with Keatts or even Anthony Grant. If Groce stays, though, I won't be shocked if he wins a B1G title in two years. I think his future success is plausible.
1. When Groce arrived in Champaign, he stated explicitly that he ran a Point Guard-driven offense predicated on compromising the opposing defense by running a dynamic playmaker off ball screens. In so many words, that's what he said he wanted to do. When he won 29 games and made the S16 his last year at Ohio, that's incontrovertibly what he ran with DJ Cooper. Te'Jon Lucas is the first PG Groce has had at UI who can 1) get to the basket off the bounce, 2) shoot well enough to require defenders to go under screens, 3) find open shooters with regularity, and 4) defend quick opponents. Suddenly our offense and defense look completely different. Next year, Trent Frazier will likely be the backup PG and he's quicker than Lucas and by most accounts a better shooter. If Mark Smith commits, he's bigger than Lucas, a better shooter, and perhaps an equally gifted passer. Da'Monte projects more as a wing, but he's a good passer and ball handler, too. We might have four guys on the roster next year better at playing PG in Groce's system than anyone we've had the last five years. No one is giving Groce a pass for missing on so many Point Guards, but that issue would seem to be rectified going forward.
2. The way Groce has used Mav this year shows me that he's adjusted somewhat to Big Ten play. We were a donut offense in JG's first few years. Much of that was personnel-based, but I have a sense that Groce realized at some point you can't get good 3pt looks against physical, athletic B1G teams without threatening the paint. Tilmon is regarded as an advanced offensive player for his age. He's a good passer, has a few post moves, and can face up from 15 feet. I think (as a sophomore at least) he'll be able to do a lot of what Mav does offensively while providing something close to what Egwu did defensively - all while rebounding better than both.
3. As the season has progressed, I think it's safe to say that Lucas, JCL, Kipper, Aaron Jordan, Black, and Finke is a solid foundation going forward. We definitely need a 5th year banger to provide some rebounding and post defense off the bench. We could use another wing scorer as well. Too bad that DJ Williams doesn't seem to be a part of the future - he's got a lot of natural ability. However, this is a pretty decent roster.
4. Groce's teams have been decent to very good defensively apart from last year and the first 2/3 of this year. Now we look like a really good defensive team again. Incorporating Lucas and Nichols in the rotation has made a world of difference. Next year we may struggle a little while the freshmen get acclimated, but I don't think Groce is a bad defensive coach. Maybe this stretch can grow into the program's identity: relentless effort, ball denial, forcing turnovers. It's been fun to watch, right?
5. Groce is at least a pretty good recruiter. People like him. He's charismatic, passionate, and a genuinely good guy. He's got good relationships and the state and surrounding area are pumping out some of the best talent in two decades. I'm still not convinced that Groce is The Guy, but if you give him Tilmon, Mark Smith, Tim Finke, Dosunmu, Okoro, Liddell, Adam Miller, et al, can he get to the S16/E8? I say probably so. If Groce gets a 3yr extension, I think he can keep recruiting at a high level. As our talent level rises, I think we'll climb the conference ladder over the next 3-4 years.
6. If nothing else, Groce's guys will run through a brick wall for him. This team is like a family and they love Groce. Malcolm Hill loves him, Trent Frazier loves him. He's a good person and has a lot of high-level leadership traits. Maybe it's finally all coming together?
I've wanted a change. Frankly, I still do. However, I don't think keeping Groce will necessarily relegate the program to another decade of mediocrity. I think there's a fair chance he finds success here. I'd rather have Tony Bennett or Monty Williams. I'd maybe rather roll the dice with Keatts or even Anthony Grant. If Groce stays, though, I won't be shocked if he wins a B1G title in two years. I think his future success is plausible.
mattcoldagelli
- The Transfer Portal with Do Not Contact Tag
I would say that, if Groce is retained, the biggest reason for anyone to have optimism should be that his primary shortcomings have thus far been related to teaching/conveying concepts to his players when it comes to game planning and strategy.
You'll lose a lot of money betting on college basketball coaches to change their stripes in any regard, but I would rather have this be the area we need to change as opposed to him just not having a great sense of basketball strategy or if he couldn't personally relate to the players or get them to respond/buy in. Those two things are next to impossible to alter.
You'll lose a lot of money betting on college basketball coaches to change their stripes in any regard, but I would rather have this be the area we need to change as opposed to him just not having a great sense of basketball strategy or if he couldn't personally relate to the players or get them to respond/buy in. Those two things are next to impossible to alter.
FatGreg, while I don't necessarily agree with all of your points or find all of them to be likely, I think that is a solid post overall. Thanks for taking the time to put some thoughts down.
89illinigrad
- Chicago
Last I checked the 2017 rankings we're not final and I fully believe that Frazier will be inside that magical Top 100 that everyone gets so excited about.
Regardless, TJL was ranked lower than Frazier and we've seen how much better the offense (and defense) runs with him at the point.
Finally, while TJL has shown some flashes on offense, Frazier is considered a better offensive player so , even if he's only a backup to TJL, he's a better option than Tate.
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eMitch
- Quincy, IL
But, TJL seems to have caught on pretty quickly. So, I'd say his play, which has been pretty good, sets the floor for the next 3 years at point guard. Frazier and Smith (possibly), could raise it even further.
Recruiting rankings change very little, if at all, after the AAU season. Also, Frazier has to be better than/comparable to TA, not Tate, as TA is the backup PG
Thanks LLP. My only real point is that there's some room for optimism. I don't necessarily expect Groce to succeed in some dramatic, unprecedented way, but I think it's irrational to rule out the possibility of future improvement.
Likewise, I feel that Groce has had long enough to turn this thing around and I'd personally be excited for a change, but at the same time the rational position is to regard past failure as a sunk cost. Looking forward, the primary consideration should be what gives us the best chance of winning games and ultimately championships. There's no room for a punitive approach. It would be different if the team hadn't bounced back and made this late run. It would also be different if we had a weak recruiting class coming in, or if Groce was known to have poor relationships with HS/AAU teams, etc., etc.
If I were in Whitman's shoes, I'd likely dismiss JG unless he won a game in the NCAA tournament. However, regardless of whether that happens, if Whitman keeps Groce my point is that we're not bereft of hope. There are some indicators of potential improvement on the horizon.
89illinigrad
- Chicago
Yep, you're right. It may be a tossup between Frazier and Abrams. I think Frazier is probably quicker and a better shooter than Abrams, at least coming out of HS, but he won't have the experience the Abrams has.
As to the rankings changing, it can happen (see Mark Smith), and Scout certainly thinks highly of Frazier (77th).
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IlliniinNJ
- Cherry Hill, NJ
I absolutely agree with #6 of Fat Greg's post. This team never gave up on Groce and Groce never gave up on the team. Under the adverse circumstances, that has been truly impressive. Unlike 2012, where the team and coach both quit on one another this group is fighting hard. i am looking forward to seeing them in Piscataway on Saturday. As i have said before, unless the AD is fairly comfortable that there is someone better out there, I wouldn't make a change just for the sake of making a change.
There certainly are reasons to support the possibility/idea where retaining him could work out. I would personally still gamble on Keatts, but have come to terms with the likelihood Groce is retained simply because that's what I think happens at this point. Not in love with the thought, but the likely reality is in front of me so I've started to turn the page internally.
The major thing that has stood out is that we finally have some semblance of an identity defensively that doesn't boil down to on "Sick 'em, Nnanna!" with one lockdown wing (Ray, DJ Rich) guarding the best opposing perimeter player. I've yearned for any sort of identity, and if this is what it'll be defensively, I'm good with that. I still have MAJOR questions offensively, however.
I still intend to go update this season's stats for the coaching carousel anyway just to take a look. It may be fun to refer back to later.
Isn't Smith a case where he was injured for a while, though? Re-evaluations of guys coming off injuries certainly happen, but that is less applicable for Frazier who has had lots of time to be evaluated.
I think the biggest question for me with Trent is if he can defend in a team system as effectively as TA. Elsewise, you won't see TJL and TF nearly as much as you'll see TJL and JCL next year, imo.
mattcoldagelli
- The Transfer Portal with Do Not Contact Tag
On the offensive end at least, I'm not sure that most of what TJL brings to the table is stuff that gets taught, per se, anyway. Kid is just a basketball player.
Plus Smith was a Mizzou commit in baseball up until this past summer (?) so probably wasn't getting a lot of attention from the guys evaluating players.
I don't think Smith was even playing AAU ball until last summer.
That's one thing with both Smith and Frazier: they played very little AAU ball relative to their apparent talent peers.
Frazier played mostly with a small AAU outfit and with his high school during springs and summers. He finally tried playing with a higher level team and rode the pine (similar to when Lovett, Jr played behind Brunson on MIF). That caused some to question his ability. Then, when he finally got into the spotlight in two big tourneys late last summer, he generated legit national buzz.
Smith mostly played baseball in favor of AAU basketball. When he finally got in front of evaluators, he was recovering from injury. Until this year, he was very good for Edwardsville, but not regarded as a basketball prospect due to his standing as a MLB pitching prospect. He also really just reached his athletic/conditioning potential this year.
The commonality is that there's some reason to suspect that both are underrated due to lack of national exposure. They're both absolutely dominant high school players and unequivocally P5 level run/jump athletes. To some extent, Tilmon also suffered from an inability to finish out the AAU season due to injury. He was looking like a MDAA caliber player before he got hurt.
Some of the optimism about this recruiting class is typical wishful thinking, but the anticipation isn't wholly unfounded.
Tupper chimes in: How did Illini do this? Here's four changes that worked
And...
#5 Groce taught Leron Black how to be a great three point shooter over the last 2 weeks
And...
#5 Groce taught Leron Black how to be a great three point shooter over the last 2 weeks
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