2017 Coaching Carousel

PrudenceJuris · Mar 3, 2017

LurkLongandProsper said:
The fact of the matter is that we're hinging on an offense under Groce that has never been above 47th in KenPom (47th was his first year here with Weber players, no other year, including at Ohio, was better than 90th) to suddenly improve, for Groce to stop being stubborn, for Groce to make staff changes, etc, etc. when the reality is that most of those things, if not all, are all unlikely.

This isn't a bad argument, especially since it has some facts to back it up. The reply is simple: until last month, Groce hasn't had a serviceable point guard. Now he does, and we've got a pretty good inside-out thing going. I join in the criticism that he should have brought Lucas along quicker (not to mention that it's on Groce for not obtaining a point guard sooner), but the immediate future looks reasonably bright with regard to point guard play. I'm optimistic about our offense going forward.
And for a little perspective, how about our previous coach and repeated possessions of 33 seconds of passing it around the perimeter and then someone launching a desperation shot? Anybody remember Penn State 38-33?

mattcoldagelli · Mar 3, 2017

FatGreg said:
Groce is retained despite missing the tournament.

For my own mental health, I am going to continue to tell myself that this outcome is absolutely not on the table.

LurkLongandProsper · Mar 3, 2017

haasi said:
Well, putting it that way, 2 of the last 3 years we've been .500, which we never hit in first two years. Pretty good!

But in actuality, the only evidence that suggests that things are looking up is what several people have mentioned, including Fat Greg in a really good post above: Groce's system depends on quality PG play, and he completely bungled that recruiting wise for the first 4 years. Now that Lucas is in offense finally seems to be running fluidly, for first time ever. And we've got more guys with PG skills coming, as well as Tilmon, who should ultimately be a much more complete player and significant improvement over Egwu/Mav.

Just to contextualize this point a little bit in the context of who we've played:

Over this 4 game winning streak, we've played the KenPom 95th, 28th, 69th, and 41st ranked defenses. Against each we shot (PPP) 47% (.946), 40% (1.015), 48% (1.123), and 45% (1.09). It's been solid, but really not anything amazing or really dynamic, with some really hot stretches for parts of these games.

FatGreg · Mar 3, 2017

Exactly where I'm at, haasi, along with coming to terms with the probability of Groce's retention and finding some hope and optimism along the way.

Obelix · Mar 3, 2017

mattcoldagelli said:
For my own mental health, I am going to continue to tell myself that this outcome is absolutely not on the table.

I've already lost my mental health following the Illini long time ago.

LurkLongandProsper · Mar 3, 2017

PrudenceJuris said:
This isn't a bad argument, especially since it has some facts to back it up. The reply is simple: until last month, Groce hasn't had a serviceable point guard. Now he does, and we've got a pretty good inside-out thing going. I join in the criticism that he should have brought Lucas along quicker (not to mention that it's on Groce for not obtaining a point guard sooner), but the immediate future looks reasonably bright with regard to point guard play. I'm optimistic about our offense going forward.
And for a little perspective, how about our previous coach and repeated possessions of 33 seconds of passing it around the perimeter and then someone launching a desperation shot? Anybody remember Penn State 38-33?

Refer to my last post with some stats for the winning streak. But it's also worth mentioning in reference to your latter point that we've spent a solid 3.5 years where a lot of possessions for us were just dribbling at the top of the key until 12 seconds on the clock before realizing we had to do something.

dmac279 · Mar 3, 2017

Adnarel said:
I think the writer allows for that impression. His thesis is rather that the next couple of weeks should not be what makes/breaks Groce's job.

In other words, Whitman should have made up his mind one way or another at this point.

Spot on Adnarel, hats off to Groce and the boys for the last 5-6 games. I want more then 5 or 6 games. I just don't think it will happen with Groce and I'm a fan of his.

BananaShampoo · Mar 3, 2017

FatGreg said:
One thing I've been pondering is that not firing Groce probably means extending him for three years on a relatively small buyout (as discussed plenty throughout this thread), but it likely also means giving him somewhat of a pass next year. We only bring back three upperclassmen who have proven to be Big Ten contributors (JCL, Black, Finke), and so far they all look like role players. Lucas and Nichols have bright futures, but they don't appear to be guys who will make all-conference teams as sophs. AJ and DJW are mysteries at this point.

That team, plus 4-5 freshmen and maybe a grad transfer or two will not be expected to make the tourney. If Groce keeps them competitive and wins 15+ games he'll be back in 2018-19.

The doomsday scenario for the program is this: we beat RU, win against Michigan or Iowa in the BTT, keep it close against Purdue, and end up in the last four out with a final record of 20-13 (#1 seed in the NIT). Groce is retained despite missing the tournament. In 2017-18 we struggle, but finish strong and make the NIT with 18 wins. We come into 2018-19 with high expectations - probably ranked in the preseason - and then it becomes finally, abundantly clear that Groce is out of his league. We straddle the bubble and end up on the wrong side before Groce is dismissed after missing the NCAAT six times in a row.

I don't think it will go down like that, but imagining the possibility helps me understand why some people are so adamant that Groce has to go this year basically no matter what. Six years of NCAA futility should be inconceivable at Illinois.

Like others said: good post. This is exactly where I'm at and can see exactly that scenario playing out. As I mentioned elsewhere, it's almost like Beckman all over again (except he barely made the bowl game in '14). I just hope JW's isn't clouded by the recent success like MT's was.

But then, there is another scenario that is also possible (though I think less so than the other):

The team continues it's hot streak and beats Rutgers and then Michigan in the BTT to nab a 10 seed in the Tourney. Groce is retained and gets a 3 year buyout. Despite having a young team next year with a bunch of incoming Freshman, having TJL as a steady presence at the point helps immensely. JCL becomes what we hoped he could be all along and plays like the Top 35 recruit he was. Frazier switches off with TJL at the lead guard role and is a revelation. Tilmon plays like the borderline McD's AA player he is and is the best big man post player we've had since...ever? Black and Finke are very capable upperclassmen bigs and provide a reliable presence, with Finke providing Mav-like offense when needed and Black superior rebounding. They put together a decent non-con with a marquee win that nobody expected. Again they start a little slow in the B1G but by 5-6 games in they've hit their stride and end up winning 9 of their last 12 games to lead the team easily into the Tourney as an 8 seed with 22 wins. Tilmon stays for one more year to polish his game even more and improve his draft stock, also hoping a more experienced, talented team can make some serious noise. Illinois manages to win 25 games in the regular season (13-5 in the B1G), now with Finke and Okoro on board, and get to the BTT finals to nab a 3 seed in the NCAA Tourney in '19. Groce gets a larger extension and the future looks bright.

:thumb:

Obelix · Mar 3, 2017

LurkLongandProsper said:
It will certainly be interesting regardless. JW already made one big time statement change disposing of Cubit as aggressively as he had (this is not meant to draw a direct comparison to the pending decision), so if he really wants to put an emphatic stamp on #WeWillWin, he can certainly do that (or undermine it) depending on which tournament selection show calls our name on March 12th, and on the ensuing decision he makes.

I have argued that the Cubit situation was SOOOOOOOOOO different, that it does not even make sense to even mention it. I know you said that you do not draw direct comparison, but why even mention it?

#WeWillWin - nice, but it is a slogan. It means nothing.

As for JW, the emphasis on him losing short term goodwill is also irrelevant IMO. The reality is that Whitman will be judged by his ability to elevate Illini sports (especially revenue sports) rather than whether he made decisions that pleased the majority (not all) people on message boards.

dmac279 · Mar 3, 2017

FatGreg said:
One thing I've been pondering is that not firing Groce probably means extending him for three years on a relatively small buyout (as discussed plenty throughout this thread), but it likely also means giving him somewhat of a pass next year. We only bring back three upperclassmen who have proven to be Big Ten contributors (JCL, Black, Finke), and so far they all look like role players. Lucas and Nichols have bright futures, but they don't appear to be guys who will make all-conference teams as sophs. AJ and DJW are mysteries at this point.

That team, plus 4-5 freshmen and maybe a grad transfer or two will not be expected to make the tourney. If Groce keeps them competitive and wins 15+ games he'll be back in 2018-19.

The doomsday scenario for the program is this: we beat RU, win against Michigan or Iowa in the BTT, keep it close against Purdue, and end up in the last four out with a final record of 20-13 (#1 seed in the NIT). Groce is retained despite missing the tournament. In 2017-18 we struggle, but finish strong and make the NIT with 18 wins. We come into 2018-19 with high expectations - probably ranked in the preseason - and then it becomes finally, abundantly clear that Groce is out of his league. We straddle the bubble and end up on the wrong side before Groce is dismissed after missing the NCAAT six times in a row.

I don't think it will go down like that, but imagining the possibility helps me understand why some people are so adamant that Groce has to go this year basically no matter what. Six years of NCAA futility should be inconceivable at Illinois.

Well, they've already passed my end of season expectations. I didn't think they'd win another game 6 games back. The playing time of Lucas and Kipper resulted in better defense and better offensive flow. What took so long most of us saw a it lot earlier then this. I appreciate Groces loyalty to the seniors, not the results.

haasi · Mar 3, 2017

LurkLongandProsper said:
Just to contextualize this point a little bit in the context of who we've played:

Over this 4 game winning streak, we've played the KenPom 95th, 28th, 69th, and 41st ranked defenses. Against each we shot (PPP) 47% (.946), 40% (1.015), 48% (1.123), and 45% (1.09). It's been solid, but really not anything amazing or really dynamic, with some really hot stretches for parts of these games.

Yup, a small sample with probably aberrant hot shooting against non-elite competition. Still, it's enough to raise the question of whether Groce has turned a leaf with competent PG play because our offense does look way more fluid than in the past. OTOH, we can also consider that when you make personnel or set adjustments mid-season, you take away a lot of the scouting that's built up, and current results won't necessarily hold as teams scout and learn to play us more intelligently.

Overall, I think this raises the question but by no means gives us enough to draw any conclusions about whether we are now seeing what Groce wants to run after five years of offensive mediocrity.

Foggy Notion · Mar 3, 2017

mattcoldagelli said:
I think we're all on pins and needles awaiting your interpretation of how

8-10
7-11
9-9
5-13
9-9 (fingers crossed!)

constitutes evidence of things looking up.

Merely looking at the numbers is a hack job. Context matters. In addition to dealing with a rash of injuries and recruiting fiascos, Groce inherited a fragile roster and more empty classes than Trump University.

Let's take a look at each year:

Year 1: Groce took a demoralized team to a possession away from the Sweet Sixteen, if not for officiating that led to an NCAA rule change.

Year 2: Only three returning players, yet still an Abrams layup away from the tourney.

Year 3: Abrams goes down, leaving a hole at point guard. Still, the team looked pretty good most of the year until an unfortunate collapse at the end. The body-of-work, entirety-of the-season fanatics conveniently overlook this fact.

Year 4: Massive injuries, yet the team still made noise in the BTT.

Year 5: The book on this season is still being written. It has obviously been an up-and-down season, but the team is looking really good right now, and its biggest deficiency over the last few years (point guard) looks to be in great hands for the next few years.

LurkLongandProsper · Mar 3, 2017

haasi said:
Yup, a small sample with probably aberrant hot shooting against non-elite competition. Still, it's enough to raise the question of whether Groce has turned a leaf with competent PG play because our offense does look way more fluid than in the past. OTOH, we can also consider that when you make personnel or set adjustments mid-season, you take away a lot of the scouting that's built up, and current results won't necessarily hold as teams scout and learn to play us more intelligently.

Overall, I think this raises the question but by no means gives us enough to draw any conclusions about whether we are now seeing what Groce wants to run after five years of offensive mediocrity.

Thank you for making the bolded point, this element is often overlooked. Kipper's burst onto the scene game vs UM was in many ways attributable to this (not to take anything away from him, but we have seen a fairly noticeable dip from him offensively since, although he is of course still being productive).

Just in watching the games, I think (eye test alert) that both are true to varying degrees with respect to (1) TJL/competent guard play helping this offense, and (2) the offense benefiting from a combo of poor defenses and hot shooting. I think TJL has opened up some concepts we weren't previously able to utilize in our offense and has raised our floor as an offense, but I also think we still have benefited greatly from really hot shooting, especially against MSU the other day.

We take and make some pretty difficult 3s at times (more often than I'd like) to bail us out from otherwise dead possessions. We still don't get enough high % looks (although we have improved in this area) and I still am not convinced we do things like generating and attacking mismatches and attacking off the dribble, etc that tend to be staples of really good offenses. It is probably a subjective debate on whether this is attributed to talent/lack of talent or to scheme. I have noticed however that for whatever reason, be it TJL, bad defenses, or just a changed emphasis from the staff, that there's been a noticeable drop in our attempts from the midrange in recent games. This was LONG overdue, but a welcome change if it is here to stay.

mhuml32 · Mar 3, 2017

mattcoldagelli said:
For my own mental health, I am going to continue to tell myself that this outcome is absolutely not on the table.

I read every one of your posts in the voice of Ron Swanson, which made me laugh at this one.

dweebs19 · Mar 3, 2017

I'm still of the opinion that if Groce doesn't make the NCAAT, he needs to go. I don't care if we get the #1 seed in the NIT. If he does make the NCAAT, i think his seat still stays warm next year. He gets no pass. I think he will have enough talent to get in the NCAAT. I understand we lose Mav, and we will have a huge whole at C, but I think the guard play should be much improved next year. Plus there are no seniors that he will try to stay faithful to. He has no choice but to play the freshmen next year.

alaskaillini · Mar 3, 2017

DoctorofJazz said:
If this was a Division 3 team, I'd agree with you 100%. I'd want my son to play for Groce. But this is Division I and wins and losses are important. If they weren't, Lou Tepper would still be coaching the football team.

I didn't mean to imply that wins and losses aren't important. My point is that they aren't the only variable in the calculus. A coach that honors his word, puts his players interests before his own, represents the university well, is worth a few in the W column especially early in his career. The university can't pay the players - in my mind they deserve a coach who will look out for them. Groce sticking with his seniors and giving then every opportunity to succeed (or fail) before moving on is great coaching attribute from the player perspective, but a fault from the fan perspective. Ultimately, I think these goals are not mutually exclusive as a coach who earns a reputation for looking out after his players will get better recruits than his record would indicate he should (see 2017 class).

kuhl84 · Mar 3, 2017

TCTORNADO said:
I think that with Utah's 30 point pounding of Cal last night, that Larry Krystowiak has moved to the head of the coaching search.

Admittedly, it reinforced my previously held views.

If a change is to be made, I am partial to those with NBA experience.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

dweebs19 · Mar 3, 2017

yea...I think I'm off the Cuonzo train. He can recruit, but apparently even with NBA players on his roster, he can't beat Utah.

kcib8130 · Mar 3, 2017

Can we change the direction of the "Coaching Carousel" thread and talk about where Tom Crean's next coaching destination will be?

FatGreg · Mar 3, 2017

If we assume Groce is back next year, one thing I can definitely say is I will NOT be psyched if something like this happens:

-Archie Miller to IU
-Cuonzo Martin to Mizzou
-Monty Williams to tOSU (along with Randy Ayers as an assistant - only if Matta retires)

Would hate to see proven recruiters and buzzy names take jobs in our geographic vicinity.

TooHot4Tots · Mar 3, 2017

Be funny to see the reactions if the Illini fall to Rutgers

FatGreg · Mar 3, 2017

One thing that seems clear is that regardless of whether Groce is let go after the season, he's probably salvaged his career in a sense with this late push. If he'd finished 6-12 in the B1G, he probably would have been looking at taking a low-major job or an assistant role at a P5 school. As it is now, if he finishes 9-9 in conference and narrowly misses the tourney, he'll probably find a reasonable landing spot. Big narrative difference between 'Abject Failure' and 'Wrong Fit.'

UofI08 · Mar 3, 2017

If we lose to Rutgers and/or the first round in the BTT, does that change anyone's opinion in the "Groce is staying" camp?

Whitman2020 · Mar 3, 2017

UofI08 said:
If we lose to Rutgers and/or the first round in the BTT, does that change anyone's opinion in the "Groce is staying" camp?

37% say keep based on the poll.

FatGreg · Mar 3, 2017

UofI08 said:
If we lose to Rutgers and/or the first round in the BTT, does that change anyone's opinion in the "Groce is staying" camp?

If we lose to RU, yep. First round of the BTT to a likely tournament team in Michigan? Maybe, but not 100%.

I think if he loses to Rutgers and then in the first round of the BTT, he gone. If he loses to RU and then wins 2+ games in the BTT, he's staying. Beat RU and lose in the first round, toss-up. Lose to RU and win one in the BTT, toss-up leaning toward dismissal.

I may very well be wrong, but I think Whitman's decision is still up in the air. If we lose the next two games, there will be a lot of pressure from fans and boosters to fire JG (with good reason, IMO). Win the next 2-3 and make the tourney, then win one there, and the opposite is true: lots of pressure from the team, recruits, coaching community and some fans/donors to extend (an "it's only fair" mentality). Like I said, I could be totally wrong - maybe Whitman already knows what he's going to do barring some extreme outcome one way or the other.

2017 Coaching Carousel

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