While its far too early to make predictions for next year, some of the factors I take encouragement from are:
1) We only won one "toss up" game - where it came down to the final few possession and we actually snatched victory from the other team. In most close games this year, we showed an incredible knack to snatch defeat from the proverbial jaws of victory. Part of this is learning how to win; part is luck. If we go "50-50" in such game next year, that would be good for 2 more wins.
2) We had 2 serviceable big 10 starters playing at or near "position" at year-end (Trent and Leron) but 6 or 7 additional serviceable Big 10 players (players with exploitable offensive and defensive weaknesses that become more evident the longer they are on the court) -- our challenge is at that various times these players were either playing out of position (I get the whole positionless offense thing, but we still have to defend) or putting in starters minutes, and the coaching and scouting in the Big 10 is too good, and the season too long, to have that. So it is feasible that with one or two more Big 10 Starters added (Ayo and ?), and one or two more Big 10 Starters developed (favorites here would be Mark Smith and Kipper), our roster members who should be role players at this level (at least early in their careers) can be just that -- and much more effective in the minutes they are on the floor. As evidenced by Kendrick Nunn, Malcolm Hill and Maverick Morgan in recent years, and Trent and Leron this year, these kids do develop their skill sets over time, and game experience is invaluable in helping them do that.
3) Although the Big 10 was off this year in overall quality, we generally fielded a competitive, but really young, inexperienced (and often low BB IQ) team -- we were only really blown out of two games. We got more consistent and paid greater attention to detail over the course of the year -- but we ended up where many teams started the year. There aren't too many games that we lost where we lost due to a lack of effort and hustle. We lost a lot of games due to a lack of talent (natural or developed) and brains. As seniors, perhaps this year's crop of freshman could develop the skills and guile to compete and win with the raw talent on, say, a Michigan State; however, as freshman and sophomores, with a few relatively inexperienced juniors, competing against a mix of talent and experience at other places, we struggled. I see that getting better next year, if only because we won't be the most inexperienced team in the Big 10, and we will be returning a material portion of our scoring and starting minutes.
So even though it is far too early to make predictions about next year, at this time, assuming no significant defections, and adding a serviceable big (Starter) and either an athletic wing or a high caliber shooter (role players) I will make a prediction of our record falling anywhere from 16-15 to 21-10 next year. I think our Big 10 record will be from 5-13 to 9-9.