2025-2026 Season Predictions Thread

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#51      
NarrowJ
23-8
15-5 conf

Can't scoff too hard at anyone saying 19-12 or similar because we have a very, very tough schedule

But, Georgia got a 9 seed last year with virtually the same record and 328th rated non-conf schedule... 19-12 with our non-conf could be a 7 provided we won 2-3 of the tough non-conf games (but if we won 2-3 of those games then I doubt we are 19-12, so 🤷‍♂️)
 
#52      
Battle89
21ChampaignSt said:
I know you're just joking, Battle, but I've seen a few comments now that draw unfavorable parallels to the football team... and maybe all of those are jokes too? Otherwise, it's a really strange take / concern. It makes no logical sense that because our football team hasnt quite met pre-season expectations, then neither will the basketball team.

Injuries not withstanding, we have no reason not to be confident. We have the makings of a really good team - on par with or perhaps even surpassing 2024 and 2021. And I don't tend to be optimistic for the sake of being a "better fan" or for likes or whatever. All or most evidence is pointing to a really good year for us.

The other thing I'll point out is that, if you consider 2023 and 2025 to be "down years" (I do), BU has never had back to back down years since getting the program turned around.
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0% a comment / joke about the basketball team. Much more so about fans keeping expectations realistic. Multiple articles this week about the difficulty of the football schedule when the preseason talk was the opposite. And if we beat the lower-level teams at the end of the football season then all the talk will swell to how we will dominate the postseason.

Hoping and expecting good things from Brad and the team!
 
#53      
HereSoIDontGetFined
Battle89 said:
0% a comment / joke about the basketball team. Much more so about fans keeping expectations realistic. Multiple articles this week about the difficulty of the football schedule when the preseason talk was the opposite. And if we beat the lower-level teams at the end of the football season then all the talk will swell to how we will dominate the postseason.

Hoping and expecting good things from Brad and the team!
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This is where I'm at. We looked at the football team on paper and said, with a great defense and offense we might be going to the playoff. And then the defense was bad.

We have reason to be excited long term about the defense of this team with Crocker running the show, but I think that doesn't materialize right away.
 
#55      
NarrowJ
But wouldn't it be reasonable that the 'realistic expectation' would be more in line with what the current trusted data sources say, as opposed to a few pegs below them simply because we have a single season anecdotal experience with the football team?

Kenpom & Evan Miya see us near the top 5, so even my 23-8 prediction is a tier below that
 
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#56      
illinoisfootball
IlliniHardwood said:
Lebron James What GIF by SB Nation
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I hope I'm wrong.
 
#57      
the juiceman cometh
NarrowJ said:
But wouldn't it be reasonable that the 'realistic expectation' would be more in line with what the current trusted data sources say, as opposed to a few pegs below them?

Kenpom & Evan Miya see us near the top 5, so even my 23-8 prediction is a tier below that
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Just keep in mind that these preseason efficiency rankings are pretty much worthless and even Ken Pomeroy has said as much.
 
#58      
NarrowJ
the juiceman cometh said:
Just keep in mind that these preseason efficiency rankings are pretty much worthless and even Ken Pomeroy has said as much.
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While I agree, those expansive data models are surely less 'worthless' than our random guesses?

EDIT: I am unable to find anywhere these guys claim their own models are worthless though 🤷‍♂️
 
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#59      
the juiceman cometh
NarrowJ said:
While I agree, those expansive data models are surely less 'worthless' than our random guesses?

EDIT: I am unable to find anywhere these guys claim their own models are worthless though 🤷‍♂️
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Worthless was an exaggeration, but Pomeroy has stated that these early season ratings have flaws and as the season goes on he degrades their influence until they have none.


To cite a couple specific examples, KenPom had Florida #28 prior to last season, and Kansas #6. Also it's common sense. These ratings are based on efficiency statistics, for teams that have new players, have lost old players, and are yet to play competitive games in their current iterations. I don't know why anyone would expect these ratings to be all that accurate.

And no, I don't think they're helpful in the specific use-case of extrapolating a win/loss record, because win/loss is based in large part also on who you play. Alabama ended the season #6 in KenPom with a 28-9 record (26-7 in regular season). St. John's finished #14 with a 31-5 record. So just saying "we're top-5 so we should win at least x games" leaves out too many variables, even if those ratings turn out to be accurate.
 
#60      
NarrowJ
the juiceman cometh said:
Worthless was an exaggeration, but Pomeroy has stated that these early season ratings have flaws and as the season goes on he degrades their influence until they have none.


To cite a couple specific examples, KenPom had Florida #28 prior to last season, and Kansas #6. Also it's common sense. These ratings are based on efficiency statistics, for teams that have new players, have lost old players, and are yet to play competitive games in their current iterations. I don't know why anyone would expect these ratings to be all that accurate.

And no, I don't think they're helpful in the specific use-case of extrapolating a win/loss record, because win/loss is based in large part also on who you play. Alabama ended the season #6 in KenPom with a 28-9 record (26-7 in regular season). St. John's finished #14 with a 31-5 record. So just saying "we're top-5 so we should win at least x games" leaves out too many variables, even if those ratings turn out to be accurate.
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Agreed they have flaws, I think that's super obvious. I also just think basing your basketball season prediction off of the football results has it's flaws too.

Are the preseason metrics better or more accurate than someone using an anecdotal experience with our football team this season to shape their own human brain generated prognostication? Can they be used at all? Why should we trust freshly-jilted Illinois football fans more than this expansive (and unbiased) data model? Those are just questions I ask myself.

EDIT: Want to be clear I said earlier I wouldn't scoff at the 19-12 type predictions, and I'm not. My follow up was just asking why 19-12 should be seen as the 'reasonable expectation because football' while using polls and data models is not.
 
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#61      
21ChampaignSt
I think (though I'm not sure so someone feel free to keep me honest) that the preseason ranking uses a different predictive model than the in season rankings. They're based on past player performance, roster construction, coaching, etc. I pointed this out before, but KenPom's preseason top 10 teams finish the season in the top 15 75% of the time. Not bad.

I think the rankings that don't have a ton of value are the early season rankings where the model is easily skewed and perhaps too influenced by those preseason rankings which are good but not perfect.
 
#62      
Piotyr
the juiceman cometh said:
Worthless was an exaggeration, but Pomeroy has stated that these early season ratings have flaws and as the season goes on he degrades their influence until they have none.


To cite a couple specific examples, KenPom had Florida #28 prior to last season, and Kansas #6. Also it's common sense. These ratings are based on efficiency statistics, for teams that have new players, have lost old players, and are yet to play competitive games in their current iterations. I don't know why anyone would expect these ratings to be all that accurate.

And no, I don't think they're helpful in the specific use-case of extrapolating a win/loss record, because win/loss is based in large part also on who you play. Alabama ended the season #6 in KenPom with a 28-9 record (26-7 in regular season). St. John's finished #14 with a 31-5 record. So just saying "we're top-5 so we should win at least x games" leaves out too many variables, even if those ratings turn out to be accurate.
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That doesn't indicate the preseason ratings are worthless, far from it really. It's an assessment of the efficiency of the team based on projections from prior data (and now coaching influence), along with projected playing time based on assumptions. It's a best estimate based on the data that is available.

As the season progresses, the rating has more reliable data to use based on current season games, and as that data grows in sample size, the preseason projection is less needed to give an accurate adjusted efficiency assessment based on the current roster.

The "early season ratings are problematic" issue stems from a time before preseason ratings were factored in, as at that time ratings were generated from a very small sample of in season data (like just the first game of the year), which made it wildly volatile and not very predictive. That's the the problem with the NET ratings until, like, January, which is why it's generally not used and published until after the new year.
 
#63      
Piotyr
NarrowJ said:
But wouldn't it be reasonable that the 'realistic expectation' would be more in line with what the current trusted data sources say, as opposed to a few pegs below them simply because we have a single season anecdotal experience with the football team?

Kenpom & Evan Miya see us near the top 5, so even my 23-8 prediction is a tier below that
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Bart Torvik does game by game estimations based on his ratings (has Illinois at 8): https://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Illinois&year=2026

According to that data, the Illini schedule has:
- 8 games where they are 90%+ favorites to win (Jackson State, Florida-GC, Colgate, LIU, UTRGV, Southern, Rutgers, Minnesota)
- 9 games where they are 75%-89% favorites to win (Texas Tech, Nebraska, vs Penn State, Maryland, Washington, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Indiana, Oregon)
- 9 games where they are 50%-74% favorites to win (vs Alabama, vs UConn, vs Tennessee, vs Mizzou, @Iowa, @Northwestern, @Nebraska, Michigan, @Maryland)
- 5 games where they are 26%-50% favorites to win (@Ohio State, @Michigan State, @Purdue, @USC, @UCLA)
- 0 games where they are 25% or under to win

If you assume they win all the 90%+ that's 8 wins. Say they drop 1-2 moderate favorite games, win 2 of every 3 slight favorite games (so lose 3), and win 1-2 of the games where they're an underdog, that's in the range of a record between 22-9 and 24-7 on the season. If they win every game they're favored and lose every game they're an underdog then they go 26-5.

If they lose at home to Maryland and win every other game like I said before, they go 30-1.
 
#64      
RandyfromTuscola
Piotyr said:
Bart Torvik does game by game estimations based on his ratings (has Illinois at 8): https://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Illinois&year=2026

According to that data, the Illini schedule has:
- 8 games where they are 90%+ favorites to win (Jackson State, Florida-GC, Colgate, LIU, UTRGV, Southern, Rutgers, Minnesota)
- 9 games where they are 75%-89% favorites to win (Texas Tech, Nebraska, vs Penn State, Maryland, Washington, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Indiana, Oregon)
- 9 games where they are 50%-74% favorites to win (vs Alabama, vs UConn, vs Tennessee, vs Mizzou, @Iowa, @Northwestern, @Nebraska, Michigan, @Maryland)
- 5 games where they are 26%-50% favorites to win (@Ohio State, @Michigan State, @Purdue, @USC, @UCLA)
- 0 games where they are 25% or under to win

If you assume they win all the 90%+ that's 8 wins. Say they drop 1-2 moderate favorite games, win 2 of every 3 slight favorite games (so lose 3), and win 1-2 of the games where they're an underdog, that's in the range of a record between 22-9 and 24-7 on the season. If they win every game they're favored and lose every game they're an underdog then they go 26-5.

If they lose at home to Maryland and win every other game like I said before, they go 30-1.
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Thinking Think GIF by Rodney Dangerfield
 
#65      
jjv0004
If I am going by this board I don't know how we lose more than 5 games this year.
 
#66      
IlliniFan42
Piotyr said:
Bart Torvik does game by game estimations based on his ratings (has Illinois at 8): https://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Illinois&year=2026

According to that data, the Illini schedule has:
- 8 games where they are 90%+ favorites to win (Jackson State, Florida-GC, Colgate, LIU, UTRGV, Southern, Rutgers, Minnesota)
- 9 games where they are 75%-89% favorites to win (Texas Tech, Nebraska, vs Penn State, Maryland, Washington, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Indiana, Oregon)
- 9 games where they are 50%-74% favorites to win (vs Alabama, vs UConn, vs Tennessee, vs Mizzou, @Iowa, @Northwestern, @Nebraska, Michigan, @Maryland)
- 5 games where they are 26%-50% favorites to win (@Ohio State, @Michigan State, @Purdue, @USC, @UCLA)
- 0 games where they are 25% or under to win

If you assume they win all the 90%+ that's 8 wins. Say they drop 1-2 moderate favorite games, win 2 of every 3 slight favorite games (so lose 3), and win 1-2 of the games where they're an underdog, that's in the range of a record between 22-9 and 24-7 on the season. If they win every game they're favored and lose every game they're an underdog then they go 26-5.

If they lose at home to Maryland and win every other game like I said before, they go 30-1.
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That Texas Tech win probability shocked me. I get it's a home game, but they're not supposed to be a bad team.
 
#67      
the juiceman cometh
Piotyr said:
Bart Torvik does game by game estimations based on his ratings (has Illinois at 8): https://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Illinois&year=2026

According to that data, the Illini schedule has:
- 8 games where they are 90%+ favorites to win (Jackson State, Florida-GC, Colgate, LIU, UTRGV, Southern, Rutgers, Minnesota)
- 9 games where they are 75%-89% favorites to win (Texas Tech, Nebraska, vs Penn State, Maryland, Washington, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Indiana, Oregon)
- 9 games where they are 50%-74% favorites to win (vs Alabama, vs UConn, vs Tennessee, vs Mizzou, @Iowa, @Northwestern, @Nebraska, Michigan, @Maryland)
- 5 games where they are 26%-50% favorites to win (@Ohio State, @Michigan State, @Purdue, @USC, @UCLA)
- 0 games where they are 25% or under to win

If you assume they win all the 90%+ that's 8 wins. Say they drop 1-2 moderate favorite games, win 2 of every 3 slight favorite games (so lose 3), and win 1-2 of the games where they're an underdog, that's in the range of a record between 22-9 and 24-7 on the season. If they win every game they're favored and lose every game they're an underdog then they go 26-5.

If they lose at home to Maryland and win every other game like I said before, they go 30-1.
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Just based on those percentages (assuming we win a 98% game 98/100 times and therefore assigning 0.98 wins, etc.) Torvik's predictions would put us at 22.14 wins, 8.86 losses.
Piotyr said:
That doesn't indicate the preseason ratings are worthless, far from it really. It's an assessment of the efficiency of the team based on projections from prior data (and now coaching influence), along with projected playing time based on assumptions. It's a best estimate based on the data that is available.
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In the comment you're replying to, I literally admitted that worthless was an exaggeration. I don't stand by the word "worthless" anymore. Why debate me on a word choice I'm not trying to defend? I was wrong - they're not worthless! They're not worth a lot, but they're not worthless. Close your eyes and imagine me standing on top of a mountain, proclaiming to all in the land "I take it back, they're not worthless!"

Movie Shouting GIF
 
#68      
RichardKeenesCousin
Birdus said:
23-8 We don't win the conference
BTT-We beat Michigan in the Semi's and Beat Purdue by 30 in the Finals.
Elite 8 beat Duke by 51
At Final4 and Beat UCONN by 54 but lose a heartbreaker to Houston by 1 in quadruple OT after out of bounds pass hits Z on the leg and rolls out of bounds with 1 second on the clock down 1. :)
Illini Fans feel like crap and Underwood is on the hot seat.
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Not sure why you couldn't get more specific.
 
#71      
Piotyr
the juiceman cometh said:
In the comment you're replying to, I literally admitted that worthless was an exaggeration. I don't stand by the word "worthless" anymore. Why debate me on a word choice I'm not trying to defend? I was wrong - they're not worthless! They're not worth a lot, but they're not worthless. Close your eyes and imagine me standing on top of a mountain, proclaiming to all in the land "I take it back, they're not worthless!"
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I was clarifying that you are right, but not for those ratings that factor in preseason projection. NET rating is worthless until there is enough data to reliably measure every team's average output.
 
#73      
Calvin
Piotyr said:
As the season progresses, the rating has more reliable data to use based on current season games, and as that data grows in sample size, the preseason projection is less needed to give an accurate adjusted efficiency assessment based on the current roster.
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Specific to Kenpom, I'd had an email discussion with him a couple seasons ago. He tweaks things regularly, so perhaps out of date, but my recollection is that roughly 5% weighting per game took over for the preseason model (not sure if he was oversimplifying it). So it holds on to the preseason data for quite a while. The blog post in mid-Nov says 5 games worth in the ratings, so maybe it's less now or wasn't very linear.

I was surprised at that but he uses data predictively, so my guess is that it tracks better that way because it retains more of the talent estimate, which evens out with a bigger sample. So for example, a young team with talented players may not play well initially, but over the course of more games, should show up in the acctual performance. Bottom line is it generates pretty accurate betting lines for most games.
 
#75      
Fly Illini Fly!
I think 15-5 Big Ten, 25-7 OVR.

- beat Michigan in the BTT final
- at minimum second weekend, very possibly E8, and with a favorable draw F4.
 
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