I'm just playin'. But, I hope you're wrong, too.
2025-2026 Season Predictions Thread
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PizzaHutParkingLot
- Vodice, Croatia
Wouldn’t it be great to see this team help Brad capture his first outright B1G regular season title?
I won't predict a number, but the potential for a truly GREAT team is gathered together. I think this group might gel somewhat quicker than others, due to the age and experience of several of our players. Several are grown men; they are strong and basketball smart. They have already seen a lot of team blending. Get Petrovic and Stoyakovic 100% healthy and watch out!
Battle89
- Cary-Grove, the better Trojan team
I'm a little more pessimistic (in line with the thinking in your first sentence), especially in the non-conference schedule. Of the 'big 4' games, only TT is a true home game. The other three are neutral site but with a heavy bias, one for us and two against us. Missouri will not be a pushover either.23-8
15-5 conf
Can't scoff too hard at anyone saying 19-12 or similar because we have a very, very tough schedule
But, Georgia got a 9 seed last year with virtually the same record and 328th rated non-conf schedule... 19-12 with our non-conf could be a 7 provided we won 2-3 of the tough non-conf games (but if we won 2-3 of those games then I doubt we are 19-12, so)
I also feel we always lose one or two that we should have won, similar to my prediction in the football prediction thread. I was in Welsh-Ryan for the game last year and still cannot believe we lost, but we did. That game will haunt me for years.
Finally the opponent SOS dynamic scares me a bit. I do understand the Quad system and how playing Quad 2 and 3 games is deemed a risk more than a reward, while Quad 1 losses hurt less (or even help a little, and Quad 1 wins help a lot) and Quad 4 losses should be near-impossible (and a chance to run up a score). All good from that mathematical angle...but I'm not sure a non-con schedule of top-20 teams followed by 200+ ranked cupcakes is as good for developing a team with a bunch of new guys. You won't learn as much from a total beat-down or beat-up vs. playing a more consistent level of opponent, which would give you better data points for improvement. Just my opinion as always.
21-10 (14-6)
Will five losses give us an adequate chance at the reg. Season crown? I really don't see all of Michigan, Purdue, UCLA losing that many games.
MSU had 3 losses last year - Maryland (6 losses), Michigan (6 losses), Purdue (7 losses). The year prior, Purdue had 3 losses, Illinois second place (6 losses), Nebraska in 3rd place (8 losses). 2022 - Purdue 5 losses, Indiana in second place with 8 losses.
You're right, 5 losses probably has you outside of first place, but we'd be very much "in the hunt".
You had me until the loss to Michigan.
If we beat Michigan, Missouri, Indiana and Iowa, I am happy. We win those four games (and any rematches in the BTT) and I can accept any likely range of outcomes for the rest of the season.
wettsten
- Chicago
but...losing to northwestern?!?...TWICE...?!?
MDchicago
- Lake Norman NC
To get KP and Torvik on the record:
KenPom (pre-season projections):
23-8
14-6 (2nd, behind Purdue at 15-5 and ahead of Michigan and UCLA at 13-7)
Rank: 6
OER: 6
DER: 16
4 Games as Underdog: UConn (39%, +3); Tenn (48%; +1); at Purdue (32%; +5); at UCLA (43%; +2)
16 Close Games as Favorite (Projected Margin of 10 points or less): Texas Tech (67%; -5); Alabama (71%; -6); at Ohio State (55%; -2); Missouri (67%; -5); at Iowa (63%; -3); at NW (72%; -6); Maryland (79%; -9); Washington (83%; -10); at Nebraska (68%; -5); at MSU (55%; -1); Wisconsin (73%; -7); Indiana (80%, -10); at USC (53%; -1); Michigan (67%; -5); Oregon (80%; -9); at Maryland (58%; -2).
Torvik (pre-season projections):
22-9
13-7 (3rd, tied with UCLA behind Purdue and Michigan at 14-6)
Rank: 8
OER: 8
DER: 12
5 Games as Underdog: at OSU (41%; +2.7); at Purdue (32%; +5.0); at MSU (43%; +1.8); at USC (46%; +1.2); at UCLA 36%; +3.9).
14 Close Games as Favorite (Projected Margin of 10 points or less): Texas Tech (76%; -7.7); Alabama (58%; -2.3); UConn (52%; -0.5); Tennessee (53%; -0.7); Missouri (60%; -2.9); at Iowa (53%; -0.8); at NW (69%; -5.2); Maryland (80%; -9.3); at Nebraska (57%; -2.1); Wisconsin (77%; -8.2); Indiana (80%; -9.5); Michigan (60%; -2.7); Oregon (75%; -7.4); at Maryland (55%; -1.4).
KenPom (pre-season projections):
23-8
14-6 (2nd, behind Purdue at 15-5 and ahead of Michigan and UCLA at 13-7)
Rank: 6
OER: 6
DER: 16
4 Games as Underdog: UConn (39%, +3); Tenn (48%; +1); at Purdue (32%; +5); at UCLA (43%; +2)
16 Close Games as Favorite (Projected Margin of 10 points or less): Texas Tech (67%; -5); Alabama (71%; -6); at Ohio State (55%; -2); Missouri (67%; -5); at Iowa (63%; -3); at NW (72%; -6); Maryland (79%; -9); Washington (83%; -10); at Nebraska (68%; -5); at MSU (55%; -1); Wisconsin (73%; -7); Indiana (80%, -10); at USC (53%; -1); Michigan (67%; -5); Oregon (80%; -9); at Maryland (58%; -2).
Torvik (pre-season projections):
22-9
13-7 (3rd, tied with UCLA behind Purdue and Michigan at 14-6)
Rank: 8
OER: 8
DER: 12
5 Games as Underdog: at OSU (41%; +2.7); at Purdue (32%; +5.0); at MSU (43%; +1.8); at USC (46%; +1.2); at UCLA 36%; +3.9).
14 Close Games as Favorite (Projected Margin of 10 points or less): Texas Tech (76%; -7.7); Alabama (58%; -2.3); UConn (52%; -0.5); Tennessee (53%; -0.7); Missouri (60%; -2.9); at Iowa (53%; -0.8); at NW (69%; -5.2); Maryland (80%; -9.3); at Nebraska (57%; -2.1); Wisconsin (77%; -8.2); Indiana (80%; -9.5); Michigan (60%; -2.7); Oregon (75%; -7.4); at Maryland (55%; -1.4).
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I was thinking about coming up with a "ceiling" and "floor" prediction, and I honestly just have zero idea, haha. I get that this isn't the same team as last year, but when looking at what I would personally consider our five most impressive wins last year and our five least impressive losses given the context of each and put them in chronological order...
Nov. 28 - W 90-77 vs. #19 Arkansas (Kansas City, MO)
Jan. 2 - W 109-77 at #9 Oregon
Jan. 11 - L 72-82 vs. USC
Jan. 14 - W 94-69 at Indiana
Jan. 23 - L 71-90 vs. Maryland
Jan. 30 - L 74-80 in OT at Nebraska
Feb. 22 - L 67-110 vs. #3 Duke (New York, NY)
March 2 - W 93-73 at #15 Michigan
March 14 - L 65-88 vs. #11 Maryland (Indianapolis, IN - BTT)
March 21 - W 86-73 vs. Xavier (Milwaukee, WI - NCAAT First Round)
... you can KIND OF see the part in the middle where we were sick and shorthanded, but there was just quite simply a lot of inconsistency from start to finish. We looked like a Final Four team winning at Oregon, and we looked asleep and awful vs. USC 9 days later. We looked like we had really turned the corner in early March, and then we gave an astoundingly lifeless performance vs. Maryland in the BTT (seriously, no defense of that effort can be given by talking about Maryland being good ... it was embarrassing). I thought we actually looked as good and complete as we had in months vs. Xavier, and then (again, regardless of how good you think Kentucky is) we looked slow and unprepared with a trip to the Sweet Sixteen on the line.
I guess my predictions depend on what I personally consider entirely an unknown ... are we more mentally mature / tougher this year, and if so by how much? We obviously already know we have talent and athleticism and a lot of potential. After all, we went on the road and demolished a Michigan team that would go on to win the BTT and make the Sweet Sixteen. We handily beat an Arkansas team that would eventually be one OT loss away from making the Elite Eight. We beat a Purdue team that would lose by just 2 points in the Sweet Sixteen to the eventual National Runner-Up, Houston. And we lost on a buzzer-beater to a Tennessee team that would go on to make it to the Elite Eight before losing to that same Houston team. So in all, we either beat or proved we could hang with 3 Sweet Sixteen teams and an Elite Eight team.
However, we also lost at home to a USC team that finished 17-18 overall. We gave away a game vs. a Northwestern team that would finish 1 game above .500 on the year. We looked like UTTER crap in losses vs. a 15-17 Rutgers squad and a Nebraska team that would finish 7-13 in the Big Ten. None of this mentions performances where we just looked like we didn't even want to be there vs. good teams like Maryland or Wisconsin. You can talk about injuries and illness all you want, but I watched those games ... we were NOT prepared, and our EFFORT was inexcusably bad.
Before I decide how good this team can be, I need to know if we are the type of team that can will itself to a victory when the shots aren't falling and it feels like an "off day." The 2021 team had its worst shooting performance of the year (38.6% FG) at Indiana in a gutsy OT win when we were forced to play without Ayo, and it had its 7th worst shooting performance (45.3%) vs. Ohio State in a game that we won in OT to win a BTT championship. The 2024 team similarly had its 11th worst shooting performance (42.1%) in a Sweet Sixteen matchup vs. 2-seed Iowa State, and we simply refused to be denied our trip to the Elite Eight.
Then you have last season, where we lost all 8 of our 8 worst shooting performances, and we were 1-9 when we shot below 42%. I'm optimistic that this team has grown mentally and gained more team chemistry and toughness, and I am hopeful that the defense will be improved enough to carry us (at least better than it did last year...) when the shots aren't falling ... but teams that rely on having a good shooting night to win are BEGGING to not make a postseason run.
Nov. 28 - W 90-77 vs. #19 Arkansas (Kansas City, MO)
Jan. 2 - W 109-77 at #9 Oregon
Jan. 11 - L 72-82 vs. USC
Jan. 14 - W 94-69 at Indiana
Jan. 23 - L 71-90 vs. Maryland
Jan. 30 - L 74-80 in OT at Nebraska
Feb. 22 - L 67-110 vs. #3 Duke (New York, NY)
March 2 - W 93-73 at #15 Michigan
March 14 - L 65-88 vs. #11 Maryland (Indianapolis, IN - BTT)
March 21 - W 86-73 vs. Xavier (Milwaukee, WI - NCAAT First Round)
... you can KIND OF see the part in the middle where we were sick and shorthanded, but there was just quite simply a lot of inconsistency from start to finish. We looked like a Final Four team winning at Oregon, and we looked asleep and awful vs. USC 9 days later. We looked like we had really turned the corner in early March, and then we gave an astoundingly lifeless performance vs. Maryland in the BTT (seriously, no defense of that effort can be given by talking about Maryland being good ... it was embarrassing). I thought we actually looked as good and complete as we had in months vs. Xavier, and then (again, regardless of how good you think Kentucky is) we looked slow and unprepared with a trip to the Sweet Sixteen on the line.
I guess my predictions depend on what I personally consider entirely an unknown ... are we more mentally mature / tougher this year, and if so by how much? We obviously already know we have talent and athleticism and a lot of potential. After all, we went on the road and demolished a Michigan team that would go on to win the BTT and make the Sweet Sixteen. We handily beat an Arkansas team that would eventually be one OT loss away from making the Elite Eight. We beat a Purdue team that would lose by just 2 points in the Sweet Sixteen to the eventual National Runner-Up, Houston. And we lost on a buzzer-beater to a Tennessee team that would go on to make it to the Elite Eight before losing to that same Houston team. So in all, we either beat or proved we could hang with 3 Sweet Sixteen teams and an Elite Eight team.
However, we also lost at home to a USC team that finished 17-18 overall. We gave away a game vs. a Northwestern team that would finish 1 game above .500 on the year. We looked like UTTER crap in losses vs. a 15-17 Rutgers squad and a Nebraska team that would finish 7-13 in the Big Ten. None of this mentions performances where we just looked like we didn't even want to be there vs. good teams like Maryland or Wisconsin. You can talk about injuries and illness all you want, but I watched those games ... we were NOT prepared, and our EFFORT was inexcusably bad.
Before I decide how good this team can be, I need to know if we are the type of team that can will itself to a victory when the shots aren't falling and it feels like an "off day." The 2021 team had its worst shooting performance of the year (38.6% FG) at Indiana in a gutsy OT win when we were forced to play without Ayo, and it had its 7th worst shooting performance (45.3%) vs. Ohio State in a game that we won in OT to win a BTT championship. The 2024 team similarly had its 11th worst shooting performance (42.1%) in a Sweet Sixteen matchup vs. 2-seed Iowa State, and we simply refused to be denied our trip to the Elite Eight.
Then you have last season, where we lost all 8 of our 8 worst shooting performances, and we were 1-9 when we shot below 42%. I'm optimistic that this team has grown mentally and gained more team chemistry and toughness, and I am hopeful that the defense will be improved enough to carry us (at least better than it did last year...) when the shots aren't falling ... but teams that rely on having a good shooting night to win are BEGGING to not make a postseason run.
I guess the Duke loss was painful because...well we were really never in that game and on the national stage....but the two losses that still baffle me are the 2 losses to Maryland....not that we lost to them, but that both losses were 19 & 23 point defeats...just can't bring myself to accepting that they were that much better than us....time to change the trend and drill the Terps this year
wettsten
- Chicago
iirc, that was a three-sided affair with the refs calling every touch as a foul on both teams. i'm still very happy with our performance to grind out that win.
20-11. I wanted to go lower but it's hard to bet against 20 regular season wins as long as Underwood's coaching.
I think injuries got the best of us before the season even started.
I think injuries got the best of us before the season even started.
I'm hoping that better defensive coaching will help us endure at least a few of those bad shooting performances enough to claw back a victory.
OrangeBlue98
Iowa is not in a great spot right now (LvilleILL1)
- Des Moines, IA
I'm not saying we will be Houston defensively this season, but I'm optimistic that having a lead defensive coordinator who knows what he's doing will help improve the defense at least to a reasonable degree.
You raise some valid points - one thing that clearly caused some bad losses last year was the fact that the entire offense revolved around KJ. Specifically the KJ- Tomi pick and roll, so if KJ had a bad game or Tomi was out , we really struggled. What gives me more hope for a higher floor this year is we seemed to be much more balanced offensively- we will be older and hopefully commit fewer turnovers. KJ flat out lost us games last year with his turnovers so taking care of the ball would be a huge improvement in itself.
I think a better question is could we be in running for a sneaky one seed with just 5 con. losses - which I think ends up around 24-7?
Not super crazy. There aren't really any surefire #1 seeds, IMO. Maybe Houston because they're just inevitable under Samscum. But after that it's open.
Even Purdue - they return a lot from a Sweet 16 team but they were only marginally better than us last year. Who's to say we won't make a bigger leap and pass them up this year?
Michigan is going to be relying a lot on first year transfers which can be a mixed bag.
Florida should be solid but it's hardly the same team as last year.
Duke will depend on how quickly the freshman acclimate.
We'll have our opportunities to prove ourselves. Hopefully injuries don't hold us back too much early in the season.
With Petrovic, Tomi and Stoyakovic completely healthy, we should be a top 10 team, maybe even a top 5 team. I'm not ready to predict wins and losses; every team collides with bumps in the road now and then. I've said before, it's easy to forget other top teams will be trying to blend new faces. It's not just us, not by a long shot.
DB11Headband
- Chicago Burbs
23-8, 14-6
E8
E8
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