2025 Season Predictions Thread

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#56      
cookie86
7-5 were without a #1 or #2 wide receiver and may be without our starting left tackle
 
#60      
illinoistradition
I still think people are underestimating how tired Washington is going to be coming into their game against us. It will be their fifth straight game, following four weeks of going back and forth between the eastern and western time zones. We, on the other hand, come off a bye and can go over earlier to acclimate. I think we drop 2 of 3 to USC, OSU, or Rutgers. Rutgers following that trip to Washington has me nervous as Bret's yearly headscratcher at home.
 
#61      
Calvin
Vegas has Illinois at 7.5 despite last seasons 10 wins and a lot of returning production.

+Favorable schedule
+Returning QB
+Coach and program have been on an upward trajectory since BB arrived

- had 5 one score games last year
- 2+ score losses against CFP teams (Oregon, PSU)
- lost a stud WR to the NFL in Pat Bryant

I'll definitely take the over and go with 9-3. I don't see any sure fire losses unless tOSU is better than expected
 
#62      
redwingillini11
Call me pessimistic, I am just trying to leave myself room to be pleasantly surprised.

Western Illinois - W
at Duke - L (Road game in the heat I think we might just come out a bit sluggish.)
Western Michigan - W
at Indiana - L (I think there will be some BS home cooking we face here...)
USC - W
at Purdue - W
Ohio State - L
at Washington - L (On a neutral site I think we win this game, but heading out west to a pretty tough environment will be a bit daunting.)
Rutgers - W
Maryland - W
at Wisconsin - W
Northwestern - W

That said, my heart says 10-2 is possible and such a season would make the Mount Rushmore of my favorite sports seasons of my fandom (with 05 Hoops, 06 Bears, and 16 Cubs).
 
#63      
the juiceman cometh
Alright, so here's how I'm thinking about this.

Last season we went 9-3 in the regular season, going went 4-1 in one-score games. There's some luck there. If you take away the luck you'd expect that to go either 3-2 or 2-3. Given that 3/5 one-score games were home games, and you kind of expect the home team advantage to be a relevant factor in those kinds of games, I'll go with 3-2. So If we had been a bit more neutral in the "luck" factor maybe 8-4 is where we end up last season.

This year we should overall be a better team, given the guys we're returning. That helps, even if our luck is not as good. Also seems like a potentially easier schedule (though that's hard to say at this point - last year's schedule turned out to be easier than it seemed and this year's could theoretically go the opposite way).

I'm guessing 9-3, with equal odds of going 8-4 or 10-2 instead. I hope we don't have as many 1-score games as last season. The progression this team needs to make is to put away this year's equivalent of Kansas, Nebraska, Purdue, and Rutgers and not have to rely on late-game heroics. If we can do that, then I'd increase the odds of going 10-2. If we end up battling close games in half our schedule like we did last season, then I'd go the other way and increase the odds of 8-4.

Not going to predict specific games, so much as group them:

Games we probably don't win: Ohio State (expect to lose this one)

Games we could easily win or lose: Indiana, USC, Washington (expect 1-2 wins out of this group)

Games I like us to win, but not a lock: Duke, Rutgers, Wisconsin (expect 2-3 wins out of this group)

We should not be losing these: WIU, WMU, Purdue, Maryland, Northwestern (expect 5 wins out of this group)
 
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#64      
RockfordIllini
I won’t go game by game, but I am going 9-3 also.

As others have said, we won a lot of one score games last year so we were probably more like a 7.5 win team, but we return a lot including our QB and our entire starting OL. So potential is there to make a leap.

However I just think our schedule is a lot trickier than a lot of the prognosticators are saying. First road game almost every team struggles, and as is our tradition we manage to snag a traditionally weak P5 opponent when they are on an upswing, coming off a 9 win season with a transfer QB who I think looks like the real deal. And we play at Indiana and Washington which will both be tough environments, and no matter what their record is we know USC will have a ton of talent such that they can knock anybody off on any given Saturday. Even if we are the better team and even favored in those 4 games, there are just too many opportunities for us to stub our toe.

So I imagine we probably lose 1 or 2 that we shouldn’t and win 1 or 2 that we shouldn’t (could very well knock off Ohio state), but we stub our toe just enough to keep us out of the playoff. Although a very successful season by our standards and an indication that we are clearly remain on ann upswing, there is still some handwringing with our fan base for not making the playoff with such an experienced team. Will likely come down to a couple of plays (if we had just hauled in that one catch at Washington, if Luke hadn’t held onto the ball and gotten strip sacked vs USC etc). Think the feeling after the Loyola loss.

But I’m ready. Whatever the outcome of the season, it feels amazing to be a part of the national conversation and feel like we have a legit chance to win any of our games. I’m going to try and enjoy the ride as best I can.
 
#65      
lstewart53x3
illini0440 said:
9-3 or 10-2. If we avoid significant Injury on OL and Luke stays healthy I'll take 10-2..We will drop 2 of 3 of either Indiana, USC or Ohio St. The Staff view those 3 as the hardest games on the schedule.
Click to expand...
USC is likely the 2nd most talented team we play this year, but man, I just don’t see Bret being outcoached in that game.
 
#66      
SampsonRelpenk
Of course wins and losses are what matter most, but if we end up with one or two fewer wins than 2024 but improve in all the efficiency metrics, I think the season can still be viewed as a success. Robert has been hammering this point home all summer long but we're just not used to the variability of seasonal outcomes when you're good. When you're awful, who really cares about the difference between being 2-9 or 4-8? But that difference is really magnified when it's between 8-4 and 10-2 (especially in the expanded playoff era).
 
#70      
the juiceman cometh
illini0440 said:
Sometimes talent just talents ya know
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USC is kind of a Rorschach test when it comes to how people view that game. On the one hand, you can look at their record the last 3 years and correctly say that Lincoln Riley has that team on a downward trajectory. That leads to the conclusion they probably won't be much better than they were last season, and shouldn't be a problem.

On the other hand, they kid of did the reverse Illinois last season and did poorly in close games, indicating some back luck. 5/6 of their losses were 1-score games and their most lopsided loss was by 12 to eventual playoff runner-up Notre Dame. Advanced metrics liked them a lot more than their record would indicate.

I think the thing with USC is even if they are bad they do always have talent, and you often see teams like that pop up a couple times a season and either beat or give a scare to a team that is better than them. Last season you can point to USC beating LSU and taking Penn St. to OT as examples of that. I think it's entirely possible that USC turns out to not to have a great record this season, but that game still turns out to be a tricky one.
 
#71      
Scoregasm
9-3, we we win our bowl game to end up 10-3 (yay!). But miss the CFP by one game ( :( ).
 
#72      
GoodePodzMelendez
cookie86 said:
7-5 were without a #1 or #2 wide receiver and may be without our starting left tackle
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Who says we do not have a number 1 or 2 receiver? Dixon will break out, Beatty is ready to step up and Bowick and Clement are at least 2’s. This is the deepest WR room we have had in years. Our run game will open up the passing game. We go three wide Elzy, Dixon, Beatty, with Rusk or Arkin at the TE, Valentine as the scatback throw to the flat, how are teams going to defend that? We are going to throw everything and the kitchen sink at defenses. Dixon will be the possession receiver, Elzy deep and Beatty/Valentine/TE will be the dump out guys. Altmyer will have more time to set up the offense which in turn means more open receivers. Plus Luke can take off if needed. Lots of weapons this year.
 
#73      
Fly Illini Fly!
the juiceman cometh said:
Alright, so here's how I'm thinking about this.

Last season we went 9-3 in the regular season, going went 4-1 in one-score games. There's some luck there. If you take away the luck you'd expect that to go either 3-2 or 2-3. Given that 3/5 one-score games were home games, and you kind of expect the home team advantage to be a relevant factor in those kinds of games, I'll go with 3-2. So If we had been a bit more neutral in the "luck" factor maybe 8-4 is where we end up last season.

This year we should overall be a better team, given the guys we're returning. That helps, even if our luck is not as good. Also seems like a potentially easier schedule (though that's hard to say at this point - last year's schedule turned out to be easier than it seemed and this year's could theoretically go the opposite way).

I'm guessing 9-3, with equal odds of going 8-4 or 10-2 instead. I hope we don't have as many 1-score games as last season. The progression this team needs to make is to put away this year's equivalent of Kansas, Nebraska, Purdue, and Rutgers and not have to rely on late-game heroics. If we can do that, then I'd increase the odds of going 10-2. If we end up battling close games in half our schedule like we did last season, then I'd go the other way and increase the odds of 8-4.

Not going to predict specific games, so much as group them:

Games we probably don't win: Ohio State (expect to lose this one)

Games we could easily win or lose: Indiana, USC, Washington (expect 1-2 wins out of this group)

Games I like us to win, but not a lock: Duke, Rutgers, Wisconsin (expect 2-3 wins out of this group)

We should not be losing these: WIU, WMU, Purdue, Maryland, Northwestern (expect 5 wins out of this group)
Click to expand...
I'd move Duke up to the second tier.
 
#74      
kmunt09
kmunt09 said:
**10-2**

Western Illinois (W)
at Duke (W)
Western Michigan (W)
at Indiana (L)
USC (L)
at Purdue (W)
Ohio State (W)
at Washington (W)
Rutgers (W)
Maryland (W)
at Wisconsin (W)
Northwestern (W)
Click to expand...

Back - To - Back losses at Indiana, then at home with USC. This propels Brett and the Team to find "another level", and run the table from there on out, INCLUDING OSU.
 
#75      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
No idea how veritable - but listening to Bret's pressers, he's pretty blatantly hinted (quite a few occasions) that Beatty and Dixon are the top two and are "no doubt in my mind on another level."

If that's the case Dixon's no doubt the #1. He'll play the most of anyone, versatility, blocking, etc.
 
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