knew last year we didn't quite make it, but forgot we were thisclose in '24. was that the hungover penn state game?
2026-2027 Season Predictions Thread
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knew last year we didn't quite make it, but forgot we were thisclose in '24. was that the hungover penn state game?
Don't think you are a homer at all. That's me. I'm the homer.
I think the thought process is:
- Fully healthy David Mirkovic = top 3 team
- No David Mirkovic = fringe top 20 team
- Some in-between where we're without David Mirkovic for the first month and then he spends another 3-4 weeks getting up to speed = ???
The last one is where most folks are landing prediction wise, and a 2/3 seed is actually fairly optimistic if that's the true timeline. We're starting a 6-6 200lb dude at the 4 right now, so defense and rebounding will be a struggle, imo.
I totally agree with you that if we get David Mirkovic back in a reasonable timeframe, a 1/2 seed is not only doable, but probably likely. This class of freshmen is really something, and that was the question mark for this team prior to the injuries.
I have my doubts about “top 3 team” even if we have Mirk.I know you are summarizing general lines of thoughts from many posters, so this is not a critique of your post ... just using it to launch my own conversation.However, there is definitely a lot of nuance and therefore middle categories in there.
For example, "above" your range is if we are fully healthy (including having Mirk) and our freshman collectively are replacing Keaton's production ... we might vault to being the best team in the nation. Somewhere in between your top 3 and top 20 categories might be if we don't have Mirk but the remaining guys step up in a huge way (e.g., the twins are playing to their potential and with energy, Andrej fully steps up as our leader, the freshmen continue to impress, Brad and Co. are able to correctly diagnose AND fix the defensive issues, etc.). That might still be a bona fide top 10 team.
Your last point is the biggie, though ... and it will lead to two broad questions come March (April) that will define our ceiling, IMO.
1) Regardless of any hiccups and setbacks in November and December, are we fully "tuned up" and playing to our potential come March Madness?
2) JUST how much damage did we take early on, and how much did it affect our seed? Yes, we made the Final Four as a #3 seed last year ... but the stats over the long haul are clear, and they say your odds of playing in April are drastically higher if you can get a #1 seed. We might be "#1 seed good" by the time of the Tournament, but if we have a #3 seed again, we could end up playing one of our expected Final Four opponents in the Elite Eight instead, playing with fire regarding cutting another magical run short.
Last year’s team was really good, but was only a 3seed, and never in serious contention for a 1seed.
…..
We’re likely not going to be AS good offensively.
Last year’s team averaged 1.250 points per possession. The only other team that’s ever done that is 2025 Duke.
2026 Duke fell to 1.220 points per possession. Still a very good offense (#6 on Kenpom), but not AS good as they were in 2025.
I think we might see a similar regression for us.
….
Defensively — our formula was very good, but without Mirk, rebounding is going to be a bigger issue, in addition to being a smaller team.
The team has a very high floor. I believe EvanMiya put out that Illinois has a 90% chance of their final ranking falling between 1-16 nationally.
Anything below a 3seed, or at worst a 4seed, is going to be a huge surprise.
10 losses is too much, imo.
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foby
- Bonnaroo Land
This.
There are only maybe 2 teams we can't beat without Mirk. This is our year.
I don't have a record prediction, but some comments.
Last year was a roller coaster and I wouldn't be surprised for a repeat. Reminder:
They put together a 12 game winning streak were they smoked teams and looked incredible.
That same team had 5 losses in their last 9 heading into the NCAA tournament. After losing to Wiscy, I was very pessimistic
Then 2 dominant games to get to the second weekend
and 2 more to get to the final weekend. Officially a happy ending!
This group has looked pretty good overall in the exhibitions, but with injury question marks, that's a lot of young guys to try and carry the load in heavyweight games. Even with everyone healthy, there's enough hard games to be a grind.
I'm excited for these guys and every one of us fans. Should be a lot of good games to watch this year. Right now, just hoping everyone's healthy
Last year was a roller coaster and I wouldn't be surprised for a repeat. Reminder:
They put together a 12 game winning streak were they smoked teams and looked incredible.
That same team had 5 losses in their last 9 heading into the NCAA tournament. After losing to Wiscy, I was very pessimistic
Then 2 dominant games to get to the second weekend
and 2 more to get to the final weekend. Officially a happy ending!
This group has looked pretty good overall in the exhibitions, but with injury question marks, that's a lot of young guys to try and carry the load in heavyweight games. Even with everyone healthy, there's enough hard games to be a grind.
I'm excited for these guys and every one of us fans. Should be a lot of good games to watch this year. Right now, just hoping everyone's healthy
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
We've had some stinkers vs. PSU this decade, and I do not recall which year would have been a "hangover" game, though I suspect the absolute dud loss in 2022-23 at home might be what you are remembering? They swept us all three games that year.
In 2024 we only played them once at their old Rec Hall or whatever, and it was a complete meltdown. We lost a double-digit lead but still were up 89-82 with the ball with 40 seconds left, and ESPN had our win probability at 96.5%, lol. PSU scored 8 unanswered in the final 35 seconds, capped off by Coleman fouling the 3-point shooter with 3 seconds left, and our 2-point lead turned into a 1-point loss.I can't make a legit prediction unless Mirk is back. At full strength I wouldn't expect us to be an underdog in any other that at Duke Playing Duke at Duke and maybe at Texas Tech. We dont play at MSU or at USC. If we are healthy I would say 3 or 4 loses. Our B10 road schedule is favorable.
This isn't my prediction, but Kalshi seems* to give us these odds:
1 seed: 20%
Top 2 seed: 41%
Top 3 seed: 56%
Top 4 seed: 65%
Regular season wins:
27+: 10%
24+: 46%
21+: 71%
18+: 82%
So the mid-point is around 23-9 and a borderline 2/3 seed.
*The "no" prices are more reliable than the "yes" prices, but they are still not great for fringe markets like these
1 seed: 20%
Top 2 seed: 41%
Top 3 seed: 56%
Top 4 seed: 65%
Regular season wins:
27+: 10%
24+: 46%
21+: 71%
18+: 82%
So the mid-point is around 23-9 and a borderline 2/3 seed.
*The "no" prices are more reliable than the "yes" prices, but they are still not great for fringe markets like these
My projection includes us having absolutely no news on Andrej and Z clearing concussion protocol. After passing protocol, you have to add a week. Concussions are bad news(duh), but the recovery time can be all over the map. If they aren't cleared by VERY early next week, we'll have three guys out vs Tech. So, this doesn't just stop at Mirk.
GrayGhost77
- Centennial, CO
Put me down for 27-5. I think we drop two non-con games and 3 B1G games. Then B1G tourney champs, then NC game runner up...
Illini in Italy
- Illini HQ, Florida Panhandle
30-2
Book it.
Book it.
FeelYourPaign
- So Cal
I cut your very good post down to just this, so that I could say "I think this way often."
Remember when the Big Ten was 10 teams and you could play everyone once in football and twice in basketball?
Was that about perfect or what?
6-0.
The only record I'm concerned with.
The only record I'm concerned with.
30-2, 20-0 in the Big Ten
28-3 --17-2 Big Champs
foby
- Bonnaroo Land
I'll take the under for a thousand beach houses.
PizzaHutParkingLot
- Vodice, Croatia
Regular Season: 28–4 (17–3 B1G)
Big Ten Regular-Season & Tournament Champions | No. 1 NCAA Seed | 2027 National Champs
Vaaks: Second-Team All-Big Ten, Big Ten Media Transfer of the Year
Stojaković: Second-Team All-Big Ten
Coleman: All-Freshman Team
Tomi: Third-Team All-Big Ten
Z: Big Ten Sixth Man of the Year, All-Defensive Team
Brad Underwood: Big Ten Coach of the Year
Big Ten Regular-Season & Tournament Champions | No. 1 NCAA Seed | 2027 National Champs
November (7–1)
FDU W, Penn W, at Texas Tech W, Sam Houston W, at Duke L, EIU W, Winthrop W, WKU WDecember (5–0)
UConn W, at Minnesota W, Penn State W, Missouri W, Seattle WJanuary (8–1)
at Wisconsin W, Purdue W, Ohio State W, at Northwestern W, at Maryland W, Nebraska W, at Indiana L, USC W, North Carolina WFebruary–March (8–2)
UCLA W, Michigan State W, at Michigan L, at Purdue L, Northwestern W, at Oregon W, at Washington W, Wisconsin W, at Rutgers W, Iowa WAwards
Mirk: Big Ten Player of the Year, First-Team All-Big Ten, Second-Team All-AmericanVaaks: Second-Team All-Big Ten, Big Ten Media Transfer of the Year
Stojaković: Second-Team All-Big Ten
Coleman: All-Freshman Team
Tomi: Third-Team All-Big Ten
Z: Big Ten Sixth Man of the Year, All-Defensive Team
Brad Underwood: Big Ten Coach of the Year
When’s the last time someone won BIG Player of the Year missing 1-2 months of the season?
I will go with 24-8. Like a lot of you, I am concerned about Mirk, not his appendix, but his foot. My guess, no firm data or information, is that he had a Jones Fracture and had a screw inserted to stabilize the fracture. I am sure the surgeon was top-notch, and hardware failure isn't common, but it does happen, especially in someone his size. I hope some additional rest will help it quiet down and continue to heal.
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