3/14-3/16 Bracketology

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#3      
RML
I have a feeling that we're gonna end up a five after we win tonight. 🤞🏼 And though my preference is a six, I'm coming around to the idea of playing a one in the THIRD round. 🙂 My sense is that we play better with rest and preparation, and obviously you have more of that in the third round than you do in the fourth.
 
#7      
GoodePodzMelendez
Rez said:
I'll ask again even though I already know the answer, what's Jerry Palm's problem? He now has Illinois as an 8.
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Palm has never been a fan of the Illini. Kinda like Mike DeCourcy when he used to write for the Sporting News years ago and now the bracketologist for the B1G Network. Mike still has us as a 7 which is too low.
 
#9      
illiniE
I was on the fence between a preference for a 4/5 vs a 6. I am now firmly on the 4/5. It all about advancing to another week. Winning in round 1 is nice, but winning the 2nd game and advancing to the sweet 16 and surviving another week is exponentially better than winning in round 1. As a 6 you have to pull an upset to get the 2nd week. 4/5 you are likely in a toss up game to get to sweet 16.

Same for the 2nd week. Advancing to Elite 8 is great, but the Final Four is what it is all about. You likely have to beat a 1, it is just 2 days difference of when you play them.

If we were lower seeded, I flip and would prefer a 10/11 to a 8/9 to avoid a #1 in round 2.
 
#10      
Bleedorangeandblue44
Rez said:
I'll ask again even though I already know the answer, what's Jerry Palm's problem? He now has Illinois as an 8.
Click to expand...
www.purduealumnus.org

The Oracle

Self-proclaimed geek Jerry Palm took an unconventional path to sports stardom emerging as the Oracle of NCAA postseason play Sit Jerry Palm (S’85) down to talk about the story of how he became one of college sports media’s most prominent names, and he can’t go more than a few minutes without...
www.purduealumnus.org www.purduealumnus.org
 
#12      
NarrowJ
Jerry Palm: Purdue alum

Also Jerry Palm:

Dummy Feeling Dumb GIF



EDIT: Someone should ask him: "Jerry, why did you move Illinois down a seed after beating Purdue? Is that because Purdue is dogsh*t?"
 
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#13      
ChiefGritty
I kinda think we're going to be a 5.

Our resume is full of the stuff the modern committee tends to overrate (Quad 1 win volume, losses due to absences) and the problems are things the modern committee is increasingly aggressive about ignoring (mediocre conference position, a lot of losses, a lot of the best wins were a long time ago).

There's a gigantic glut of Big Ten teams on the 4/5/6 line who can't get matched up as 4/5's (right?), but I think we might get more priority than people expect, especially if we win today. And if we keep winning we might really have helium.

Might be totally wrong, but I just want to register that prediction.
 
#15      
sacraig
illiniE said:
I was on the fence between a preference for a 4/5 vs a 6. I am now firmly on the 4/5. It all about advancing to another week. Winning in round 1 is nice, but winning the 2nd game and advancing to the sweet 16 and surviving another week is exponentially better than winning in round 1. As a 6 you have to pull an upset to get the 2nd week. 4/5 you are likely in a toss up game to get to sweet 16.

Same for the 2nd week. Advancing to Elite 8 is great, but the Final Four is what it is all about. You likely have to beat a 1, it is just 2 days difference of when you play them.

If we were lower seeded, I flip and would prefer a 10/11 to a 8/9 to avoid a #1 in round 2.
Click to expand...
Jerry Seinfeld GIF


And for a poster with "e" prominently features in their name...

(This post will only get a chuckle from like 3 people here.)
 
#16      
kyillinifan
Maybe Jerry Palm will do a "Palm Slap" on Sunday evening. Don't slap to hard Jerry.
 
#17      
ugottabjoshinme
ChiefGritty said:
I kinda think we're going to be a 5.

Our resume is full of the stuff the modern committee tends to overrate (Quad 1 win volume, losses due to absences) and the problems are things the modern committee is increasingly aggressive about ignoring (mediocre conference position, a lot of losses, a lot of the best wins were a long time ago).

There's a gigantic glut of Big Ten teams on the 4/5/6 line who can't get matched up as 4/5's (right?), but I think we might get more priority than people expect, especially if we win today. And if we keep winning we might really have helium.

Might be totally wrong, but I just want to register that prediction.
Click to expand...
Conference matches and rematches can happen in the second round and it's almost unavoidable with the BIG this year. I've seen brackets with 3 BIG 4 seeds (Wisco, MD, Purdue) and 3 BIG 5 seeds (Oregon, UM, UI).

Imagine an Illinois / Purdue 2nd round game. Would be war.
 
#18      
PizzaHutParkingLot
ugottabjoshinme said:
Conference matches and rematches can happen in the second round and it's almost unavoidable with the BIG this year. I've seen brackets with 3 BIG 4 seeds (Wisco, MD, Purdue) and 3 BIG 5 seeds (Oregon, UM, UI).

Imagine an Illinois / Purdue 2nd round game. Would be war.
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Lets Go Start GIF

(Don't want to look ahead)

But, imagine an Illinois / Purdue round of 32 match up -- after meeting in the B1G Tournament...
 
#20      
Lysol623
ugottabjoshinme said:
Conference matches and rematches can happen in the second round and it's almost unavoidable with the BIG this year. I've seen brackets with 3 BIG 4 seeds (Wisco, MD, Purdue) and 3 BIG 5 seeds (Oregon, UM, UI).

Imagine an Illinois / Purdue 2nd round game. Would be war.
Click to expand...
Yeah it is a tough spot for us. I prefer a 6, but definitely and 4 over 5. I'd rather face a 13 seed than to be locked in with a 12. I think we have to at least get to the final for even the last 4 seed.
 
#21      
From the cheap seats
So, a deeper dive into what Palm just ignores. Among the teams Palm has seeded 5th through 8th:
Most wins: Illini tied for 13th, but within 2 wins of everyone except Clemson (27-5), Memphis (26-5), Louisville (26-6). None play in a league like the B1G or the SEC
Q1 wins: Illini tied for 3rd with 8, behind only Michigan (9) and UCLA (9)--and beat them both
Q1 + Q2 wins: Illini have the most at 15. Louisville and BYU have 14. Among teams seeded higher, Memphis has only 11 and Missouri only 10 (and Illini beat Missouri on neutral court)
Q3 losses: Illini currently have zero. Memphis has 3 and Clemson and UConn each have 1
NCAA's NET: Illini 15th, trailing only Arizona (11th) among these 32 teams. Among teams Palm has rated higher than the Illini, Memphis is 48th, Mississippi State 34th, Michigan 30th, Mississippi 27th, Louisville 26th and Marquette 25th in the NET. The committee may not follow the NET completely, but I'm not sure why it would not give its own metric some weight.
Quick lay person analysis (with emphasis on my lack of expertise and noting I am not a psychiatrist): Jerry Palm is nuts.
 
#22      
2qtslow
Bleedorangeandblue44 said:
www.purduealumnus.org

The Oracle

Self-proclaimed geek Jerry Palm took an unconventional path to sports stardom emerging as the Oracle of NCAA postseason play Sit Jerry Palm (S’85) down to talk about the story of how he became one of college sports media’s most prominent names, and he can’t go more than a few minutes without...
www.purduealumnus.org www.purduealumnus.org
Click to expand...
Hate to say this, but good article.
 
#23      
FreshlySqueezed
ugottabjoshinme said:
Conference matches and rematches can happen in the second round and it's almost unavoidable with the BIG this year. I've seen brackets with 3 BIG 4 seeds (Wisco, MD, Purdue) and 3 BIG 5 seeds (Oregon, UM, UI).

Imagine an Illinois / Purdue 2nd round game. Would be war.
Click to expand...
Again, the old rules still apply.

If we play Purdue once, we can meet them in the 2nd round. If we play Purdue twice, we can't play them until the 3rd round.

The only way around this is if the Big Ten sends 9 or more teams to the tournament. That would require Indiana or OSU to make the field.
 
#24      
PIT_ILL
Rez said:
I'll ask again even though I already know the answer, what's Jerry Palm's problem? He now has Illinois as an 8.
Click to expand...
Duke and Auburn should be livid if that bracket was the bracket. Insanely difficult 8 seeds on both sides
 
#25      
Navy_illini
From the cheap seats said:
So, a deeper dive into what Palm just ignores. Among the teams Palm has seeded 5th through 8th:
Most wins: Illini tied for 13th, but within 2 wins of everyone except Clemson (27-5), Memphis (26-5), Louisville (26-6). None play in a league like the B1G or the SEC
Q1 wins: Illini tied for 3rd with 8, behind only Michigan (9) and UCLA (9)--and beat them both
Q1 + Q2 wins: Illini have the most at 15. Louisville and BYU have 14. Among teams seeded higher, Memphis has only 11 and Missouri only 10 (and Illini beat Missouri on neutral court)
Q3 losses: Illini currently have zero. Memphis has 3 and Clemson and UConn each have 1
NCAA's NET: Illini 15th, trailing only Arizona (11th) among these 32 teams. Among teams Palm has rated higher than the Illini, Memphis is 48th, Mississippi State 34th, Michigan 30th, Mississippi 27th, Louisville 26th and Marquette 25th in the NET. The committee may not follow the NET completely, but I'm not sure why it would not give its own metric some weight.
Quick lay person analysis (with emphasis on my lack of expertise and noting I am not a psychiatrist): Jerry Palm is nuts.
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Other thing is you can no longer look at how you finished in a large conference when you only play a couple teams twice

Have to look at the schedule when and where did you play someone.

We are a 7 seed in our conference tournament but we had one of the tougher schedules playing MSU and Wisky twice (NW twice) @scUM @Oregon @IU. That does not include who was sick and injured in games

Compare UCLA played USC Oregon and Washington twice. MSU Wisky scUM all at home

Who should get the better seed without looking at non conference
 
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