3/21 Games Thread

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#26      
the juiceman cometh
EyeoftheIllini said:
NIL and thus portal has been ramped up and the amount of money being spent has exploded the last two seasons. Seems like 3 years ago $1M payouts were news. Now the top money is what $5M? $10M? And teams have multiple players getting a $1M+. So yes, NIL and portal has been around for longer than 2 years, but the level has greatly increased.

Look at Oregon State. After the 2022-23 season, they had very few transfers out and none of their top players. The next year their two top players Jordan Pope and Bilodeau both leave. After last season, all 5 starters transferred out. And I’m fairly certain what has happened to the Beavers is not an isolated situation.
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That's not enough to draw a causal connection betwen fewer upsets in one or two tournaments and NIL. Like I said there have been pre-NIL years with fewer upsets than this one.

Correlation =/= causation. There's just as much correlation to suggest the lower number of upsets is a knock-on effect of the the decreased layoffs in in the video game industry over the last 2 years:

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I don't think that's the reason. But there is correlation!

Like I said, it's possible this has something to do with NIL but there really is nowhere near enough evidence to draw that conclusion right now.

Also the Oregon St anecdote is nice and all, but I can come up with an anecdote too. Almost everyone who plays minutes for High Point transfered in from somewhere. They have a guy who played at Arizona, and another guy who came to High Point after stops at Kentucky, Florida St., and Xavier.
 
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#28      
chrisRunner7
So what I really want to know is how that guy pulled off the "mind reading" trick during the halftime show 🤔
 
#33      
EyeoftheIllini
the juiceman cometh said:
This is what happens when you start from an assumption ("NIL is going to ruin upsets in the tournament") and then look for data to support that assumption.

We're not that far removed from one of the craziest tournaments in history (2023) which happened in the NIL-era. I mean, look at this list ESPN put out this year:

www.espn.com

What are the biggest upsets in men's March Madness history?

Cinderella stories make magical March Madness memories! Check out the biggest upsets by seeding in men's NCAA tournament history now.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

There have been two 16-over-1 upsets ever, and one happened during the NIL era. There have been eleven 15-over-1 upsets ever, and 3 of them happened during NIL.

It's entirely possible the last two seasons are part of some trend away from upsets, but honestly it's far more likely that they just happen to be years when there are fewer upsets, which has always been a thing that happens.
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Yes NIL and portal have been around, but if you think the first year of it is comparable to what it is now, I don’t know what to tell you. Foreign born players on college teams have been around for years. You don’t think the impact across the board has been great the past two years? Three-point shot has been around since mid-1980s. You don’t think the impact of it has greatly increased over the years? Just because something has been in existence doesn’t mean it hasn’t evolved and having a much greater impact. That is what has happened with NIL and portal.

Does that mean there will never be a 4 seed or higher be upset in the first round again? Probably not. But when you have a situation where most of the best players on low and mid-major teams are going to high major teams that get those 1-4 seeds, it isn’t a big leap to think those kind of upsets might be near extinction — especially given these last two tournaments and the explosion of NIL.
 
#36      
EyeoftheIllini
the juiceman cometh said:
That's not enough to draw a causal connection betwen fewer upsets in one or two tournaments and NIL. Like I said there have been pre-NIL years with fewer upsets than this one.

Correlation =/= causation. There's just as much correlation to suggest the lower number of upsets is a knock-on effect of the the decreased layoffs in in the video game industry over the last 2 years:

View attachment 48515

I don't think that's the reason. But there is correlation!

Like I said, it's possible this has something to do with NIL but there really is nowhere near enough evidence to draw that conclusion right now.

Also the Oregon St anecdote is nice and all, but I can come up with an anecdote too. Almost everyone who plays minutes for High Point transfered in from somewhere. They have a guy who played at Arizona, and another guy who came to High Point after stops at Kentucky, Florida St., and Xavier.
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Nice movement of goal posts. My original post said 13-16 seeds. That’s not High Point. I’m not saying there will never be an upset in the NCAAT again. But I think there will be many more years when 1-4 seeds don’t lose in first round. And I think that takes something away from the tournament. Just my opinion.
 
#38      
IlliniFaninHoosierLand
chudaman said:
Is there an nba scout out there that can chime in and explain how Rez is rated as a first round pick?
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From what I can find, it seems to be based around his ability to play bigger than his size and his ability to guard 4s and 5s. He is offensively limited but can still make spot 3s and simple plays around the basket. If he's picked in the 1st round, it will be more of a back end pick by a team that makes the playoffs. NBA teams are starting to use more double big line-ups so he'll have a usefulness in the NBA and provide depth for whatever team picks him.
 
#41      
aaeismacgychel
rdk573 said:
This game is over...SLU played well too..
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Just a terrible matchup for them in Michigan. I would've picked them to get to the Sweet 16 over almost all teams. Michigan though had the defense, size, and physicality to give them fits. They were unlucky to be a 9 seed. Had they been a 10, much better path.
 
#42      
rdk573
chrisRunner7 said:
So what I really want to know is how that guy pulled off the "mind reading" trick during the halftime show 🤔
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From my understanding, on these appearances, he's book way out in advance sometimes a month or more...Believe it or, he has his own investigative team track and spy on the subject before the appearance to get as much information as available including what the subject of the guess will be and goes from there..For example, for an ATM# guess of the subject, they will follow that person to an ATM machine and get a high lens camera to view the ATM number inputted...Yes its that sophisticated and creepy..
 
#43      
EyeoftheIllini
Sorry to see Kevin McPale have to exit stage left, especially with that kind of game. Michigan probably should have looked good against St Louis, but they looked GOOD.
 
#44      
the juiceman cometh
EyeoftheIllini said:
Nice movement of goal posts. My original post said 13-16 seeds. That’s not High Point. I’m not saying there will never be an upset in the NCAAT again. But I think there will be many more years when 1-4 seeds don’t lose in first round. And I think that takes something away from the tournament. Just my opinion.
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So...12-5 upsets don't count as upsets? Why exactly? That's an arbitrary line you drew to support your NIL conclusion. Sorry I didn't play along.

But to address the 13-16 seed framing, those upsets were never common to begin with. Since 1985 (40 years including this year), 13 seeds have won 33 times, 14 seeds 23 times, 15 seeds 11 times, and 16 seeds just twice. You're bound to have tournaments where none of these seeds wins. It has happened before. In fact between 2000 and 2007 it happened 3 times! So what was causing it then?

Here are some of the other years when no 13-16 seeds won: 2017, 2007, 2004, 2000, 1994.
 
#46      
The Sprouting Divot
rdk573 said:
From my understanding, on these appearances, he's book way out in advance sometimes a month or more...Believe it or, he has his own investigative team track and spy on the subject before the appearance to get as much information as available including what the subject of the guess will be and goes from there..For example, for an ATM# guess of the subject, they will follow that person to an ATM machine and get a high lens camera to view the ATM number inputted...Yes its that sophisticated and creepy..
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Seems like it would be easier to simply collude in advance of taping.
 
#48      
skyIdub
Hahaha...someone in CBS' graphics department failed the MSU color graphic badly. They are not Celtics green :ROFLMAO:
 
#49      
pruman91
halftime guy was on Morning Joe show one morning and he guessed Willie Guist's pin number after a couple of questions.......his questions have literal reasonings but he is good at what he does.............he really really is......
 
#50      
Illini60613
hooraybeer said:
anyone know how that guy did that mind trick during halftime show?
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Barkley actually gave away the secret. It's all preshow work that we don't see. He forces cards of players onto each of the people on the panel and then tells them to pick any person, but they are a little confused so they pick the player of the card that is forced on them during the preshow work. No one wants to look dumb or wrong on live TV so they revert to what they remember. Charlie saying "I hated before the show the deck of cards and I picked Boozer."

He's a great showman but he's working with the NFL and NCAA to provide fun content. It's not magic. It's not "mentalism" It is very entertaining
 
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