Bowls/Playoff & Polls Thread

[Scoregasm]

For Illinois to crack the Top 12, the following 10 events likely need to happen simultaneously over the next two weeks:

1. Illinois wins out (Probability: ~40%)
2. #12 Utah (8-2) loses their final two games (to drop below 9-3).
3. #13 Miami (8-2) loses to an unranked ACC opponent.
4. #14 Vanderbilt (8-2) loses to Tennessee.
5. #15 USC (8-2) loses to UCLA or Notre Dame.
6. #16 Georgia Tech (9-1) collapses and loses out.
7. #17 Texas (7-3) loses to Texas A&M (finish 7-4).
8. #18 Michigan (8-2) loses to Ohio State (finish 8-3 or 8-4).
9. #19 Virginia (9-2) loses to Virginia Tech.
10. #20 Tennessee (7-3) loses to Vanderbilt (finish 7-4).

If we assign generous probabilities to each of these necessary upsets (e.g., giving the "Chaos" scenario a 20-30% chance per team), the cumulative probability of this specific sequence occurring is approximately:
P(Playoff)=0.40*(.25)^9 = 0.0000015
Translated: The chance is roughly 1 in 65,000.

How do 4 and 10 both happen?

 

[WolfpackIllini]

How do 4 and 10 both happen?

Troublemaker.

 

[derrick6]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1990966583653773683

Texas Tech was close last poll

 

[Illini2010-11]

How do 4 and 10 both happen?

Double forefeight???

 

[Juju]

If we end up #13 in the CFP rankings, that Washington game will end up pissing me off even more. Just like the Minnesota game last year. Two games in two consecutive years that we should've won and would have gone to the CFP if we had(assuming we win these final two games, of course).

 

[Juju]

Illinois #21 in tonight's CFB Playoff rankings

"RESPECT ME!!"

 

[WeWillWhen]

For Illinois to crack the Top 12, the following 10 events likely need to happen simultaneously over the next two weeks:

1. Illinois wins out (Probability: ~40%)
2. #12 Utah (8-2) loses their final two games (to drop below 9-3).
3. #13 Miami (8-2) loses to an unranked ACC opponent.
4. #14 Vanderbilt (8-2) loses to Tennessee.
5. #15 USC (8-2) loses to UCLA or Notre Dame.
6. #16 Georgia Tech (9-1) collapses and loses out.
7. #17 Texas (7-3) loses to Texas A&M (finish 7-4).
8. #18 Michigan (8-2) loses to Ohio State (finish 8-3 or 8-4).
9. #19 Virginia (9-2) loses to Virginia Tech.
10. #20 Tennessee (7-3) loses to Vanderbilt (finish 7-4).

If we assign generous probabilities to each of these necessary upsets (e.g., giving the "Chaos" scenario a 20-30% chance per team), the cumulative probability of this specific sequence occurring is approximately:
P(Playoff)=0.40*(.25)^9 = 0.0000015
Translated: The chance is roughly 1 in 65,000.

 

[illiniE]

For Illinois to crack the Top 12, the following 10 events likely need to happen simultaneously over the next two weeks:

1. Illinois wins out (Probability: ~40%)
2. #12 Utah (8-2) loses their final two games (to drop below 9-3).
3. #13 Miami (8-2) loses to an unranked ACC opponent.
4. #14 Vanderbilt (8-2) loses to Tennessee.
5. #15 USC (8-2) loses to UCLA or Notre Dame.
6. #16 Georgia Tech (9-1) collapses and loses out.
7. #17 Texas (7-3) loses to Texas A&M (finish 7-4).
8. #18 Michigan (8-2) loses to Ohio State (finish 8-3 or 8-4).
9. #19 Virginia (9-2) loses to Virginia Tech.
10. #20 Tennessee (7-3) loses to Vanderbilt (finish 7-4).

If we assign generous probabilities to each of these necessary upsets (e.g., giving the "Chaos" scenario a 20-30% chance per team), the cumulative probability of this specific sequence occurring is approximately:
P(Playoff)=0.40*(.25)^9 = 0.0000015
Translated: The chance is roughly 1 in 65,000.

They need to crack the top 10 as there will be 2 automatic qualifiers. Miami/GT will be one of the those AQs.

 

[TheChief4Life]

For Illinois to crack the Top 12, the following 10 events likely need to happen simultaneously over the next two weeks:

1. Illinois wins out (Probability: ~40%)
2. #12 Utah (8-2) loses their final two games (to drop below 9-3).
3. #13 Miami (8-2) loses to an unranked ACC opponent.
4. #14 Vanderbilt (8-2) loses to Tennessee.
5. #15 USC (8-2) loses to UCLA or Notre Dame.
6. #16 Georgia Tech (9-1) collapses and loses out.
7. #17 Texas (7-3) loses to Texas A&M (finish 7-4).
8. #18 Michigan (8-2) loses to Ohio State (finish 8-3 or 8-4).
9. #19 Virginia (9-2) loses to Virginia Tech.
10. #20 Tennessee (7-3) loses to Vanderbilt (finish 7-4).

If we assign generous probabilities to each of these necessary upsets (e.g., giving the "Chaos" scenario a 20-30% chance per team), the cumulative probability of this specific sequence occurring is approximately:
P(Playoff)=0.40*(.25)^9 = 0.0000015
Translated: The chance is roughly 1 in 65,000.

40% chance Illinois wins out? I mean, I get Illinois pessimism, but I have to imagine the odds are much higher than that.

As others have said, really, Illinois would have to finish in the top 10. That means 11 teams ahead of us need to find a way out.
Also, I think really, the key is this:
1. Vanderbilt loses to Kentucky, then beats Tennessee. Or, Tennessee loses to Florida, then beats Vanderbilt. Ultimately, we need both of them to lose at least one more game. Knocks both of them below us, hopefully.
2. Miami, Georgia Tech, and Virginia need to continue sucking. One of them will win the ACC, and probably finish top 12 anyway, but the other two will hopefully play to below the level of Illinois. Who "we want to win" the ACC is a little convoluted in my opinion. But who ever is ranked highest going into the championship game, we need them to win the ACC championship game. I am hopeful the other two ACC teams finish below Illinois.
3. Utah and BYU need to "lose out" and Texas Tech needs to win the Big 12 championship game.
4. The SEC and B1G teams need to . This is where things get convoluted, honestly.

At the end of the day, Illinois need a lot to happen. We both agree on that. Are they out of it? Not necessary. But, it will take a Christmas miracle. Just keep winning and play somewhere warm in January.

 

[Illini-Rule]

Both #4 & #10 can't happen.

 

[DeonThomas]

Looking at things just a little differently. We're currently ranked #21. Here are the teams ahead of us who can still lose prior to the playoffs. And some of these are absolutely going to happen. We certainly have a chance to end up very, very close to where we started the season at #12! More than respectable.

#20 Tenn -- @FLA or Vandy
#19 Virg -- VT or ACC Championship game
#18 Mich -- Ohio St
#17 Texas -- Texas A&M
#16 GaTech -- Pitt or UGA or ACC Championship game
#15 USC -- @Oreg or UCLA
#14 Vandy -- KY or @TENN
#13 Miami -- @VT or @PITT or ACC Championship game
#12 Utah -- KSU; @KAN or Big 12 Championship game
#11 BYU -- @Cin or Big 12 Championship game

First up -- we need to win this weekend at Wisconsin!

 

[Illinicpa14]

For Illinois to crack the Top 12, the following 10 events likely need to happen simultaneously over the next two weeks:

1. Illinois wins out (Probability: ~40%)
2. #12 Utah (8-2) loses their final two games (to drop below 9-3).
3. #13 Miami (8-2) loses to an unranked ACC opponent.
4. #14 Vanderbilt (8-2) loses to Tennessee.
5. #15 USC (8-2) loses to UCLA or Notre Dame.
6. #16 Georgia Tech (9-1) collapses and loses out.
7. #17 Texas (7-3) loses to Texas A&M (finish 7-4).
8. #18 Michigan (8-2) loses to Ohio State (finish 8-3 or 8-4).
9. #19 Virginia (9-2) loses to Virginia Tech.
10. #20 Tennessee (7-3) loses to Vanderbilt (finish 7-4).

If we assign generous probabilities to each of these necessary upsets (e.g., giving the "Chaos" scenario a 20-30% chance per team), the cumulative probability of this specific sequence occurring is approximately:
P(Playoff)=0.40*(.25)^9 = 0.0000015
Translated: The chance is roughly 1 in 65,000.

You have vandy and Tennessee losing to each other.

Michigan as a 3 loss I think gets in over us given their brand.

 

[Illini in Italy]

For Illinois to crack the Top 12, the following 10 events likely need to happen simultaneously over the next two weeks:

1. Illinois wins out (Probability: ~40%)
2. #12 Utah (8-2) loses their final two games (to drop below 9-3).
3. #13 Miami (8-2) loses to an unranked ACC opponent.
4. #14 Vanderbilt (8-2) loses to Tennessee.
5. #15 USC (8-2) loses to UCLA or Notre Dame.
6. #16 Georgia Tech (9-1) collapses and loses out.
7. #17 Texas (7-3) loses to Texas A&M (finish 7-4).
8. #18 Michigan (8-2) loses to Ohio State (finish 8-3 or 8-4).
9. #19 Virginia (9-2) loses to Virginia Tech.
10. #20 Tennessee (7-3) loses to Vanderbilt (finish 7-4).

If we assign generous probabilities to each of these necessary upsets (e.g., giving the "Chaos" scenario a 20-30% chance per team), the cumulative probability of this specific sequence occurring is approximately:
P(Playoff)=0.40*(.25)^9 = 0.0000015
Translated: The chance is roughly 1 in 65,000.

I was told there would be no Math!???!!!

 

[sacraig]

How do 4 and 10 both happen?

 

[Illwinsagain]

For Illinois to crack the Top 12, the following 10 events likely need to happen simultaneously over the next two weeks:

1. Illinois wins out (Probability: ~40%)
2. #12 Utah (8-2) loses their final two games (to drop below 9-3).
3. #13 Miami (8-2) loses to an unranked ACC opponent.
4. #14 Vanderbilt (8-2) loses to Tennessee.
5. #15 USC (8-2) loses to UCLA or Notre Dame.
6. #16 Georgia Tech (9-1) collapses and loses out.
7. #17 Texas (7-3) loses to Texas A&M (finish 7-4).
8. #18 Michigan (8-2) loses to Ohio State (finish 8-3 or 8-4).
9. #19 Virginia (9-2) loses to Virginia Tech.
10. #20 Tennessee (7-3) loses to Vanderbilt (finish 7-4).

If we assign generous probabilities to each of these necessary upsets (e.g., giving the "Chaos" scenario a 20-30% chance per team), the cumulative probability of this specific sequence occurring is approximately:
P(Playoff)=0.40*(.25)^9 = 0.0000015
Translated: The chance is roughly 1 in 65,000.

Thanks for the effort. I can see about half of these happening, but that would leave us mid teens (assuming #1 is one of the things happening).

 

[KnoxIllini2]

Looking at things just a little differently. We're currently ranked #21. Here are the teams ahead of us who can still lose prior to the playoffs. And some of these are absolutely going to happen. We certainly have a chance to end up very, very close to where we started the season at #12! More than respectable.

#20 Tenn -- @FLA or Vandy
#19 Virg -- VT or ACC Championship game
#18 Mich -- Ohio St
#17 Texas -- Texas A&M
#16 GaTech -- Pitt or UGA or ACC Championship game
#15 USC -- @Oreg or UCLA
#14 Vandy -- KY or @TENN
#13 Miami -- @VT or @PITT or ACC Championship game
#12 Utah -- KSU; @KAN or Big 12 Championship game
#11 BYU -- @Cin or Big 12 Championship game

First up -- we need to win this weekend at Wisconsin!

This weekend we are rooting for: Gators, Hokies, Ducks, Panthers, Wildcats (Kentucky and K-State), and Bearcats

Next Weekend cheerleading for: Buckeyes (ew), Aggies, Volunteers, Hokies, Bulldogs, Bruins, Panthers, Jayhawks

 

[green_bay_energy]

40% chance Illinois wins out? I mean, I get Illinois pessimism, but I have to imagine the odds are much higher than that.

As others have said, really, Illinois would have to finish in the top 10. That means 11 teams ahead of us need to find a way out.
Also, I think really, the key is this:
1. Vanderbilt loses to Kentucky, then beats Tennessee. Or, Tennessee loses to Florida, then beats Vanderbilt. Ultimately, we need both of them to lose at least one more game. Knocks both of them below us, hopefully.
2. Miami, Georgia Tech, and Virginia need to continue sucking. One of them will win the ACC, and probably finish top 12 anyway, but the other two will hopefully play to below the level of Illinois. Who "we want to win" the ACC is a little convoluted in my opinion. But who ever is ranked highest going into the championship game, we need them to win the ACC championship game. I am hopeful the other two ACC teams finish below Illinois.
3. Utah and BYU need to "lose out" and Texas Tech needs to win the Big 12 championship game.
4. The SEC and B1G teams need to . This is where things get convoluted, honestly.

At the end of the day, Illinois need a lot to happen. We both agree on that. Are they out of it? Not necessary. But, it will take a Christmas miracle. Just keep winning and play somewhere warm in January.

This is just a back-of-the-envelope calculation—please don't buy stocks based on this! Assuming the two games are independent, we can calculate the probability of winning both by multiplying their individual probabilities.
If the win rate (yes, that's my assumption) for each is 63% (0.63):
0.63×0.63=0.3969 (approx 0.40)
Therefore, the probability of winning both games is 40%.

 

[wpr]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1990970314348769487

Very true. Back to back 10-3 seasons will be an excellent outcome.

 

[BZuppke]

by every measurement we should be first in the group of 4-3 teams

 

[Illinijoe]

This is just a back-of-the-envelope calculation—please don't buy stocks based on this! Assuming the two games are independent, we can calculate the probability of winning both by multiplying their individual probabilities.
If the win rate (yes, that's my assumption) for each is 63% (0.63):
0.63×0.63=0.3969 (approx 0.40)
Therefore, the probability of winning both games is 40%.

Logic is right but 63 percent is low - espn has 71 and 76 for the last two games so this implies a 54 percent chance.

 

[aaeismacgychel]

For Illinois to crack the Top 12, the following 10 events likely need to happen simultaneously over the next two weeks:

1. Illinois wins out (Probability: ~40%)
2. #12 Utah (8-2) loses their final two games (to drop below 9-3).
3. #13 Miami (8-2) loses to an unranked ACC opponent.
4. #14 Vanderbilt (8-2) loses to Tennessee.
5. #15 USC (8-2) loses to UCLA or Notre Dame.
6. #16 Georgia Tech (9-1) collapses and loses out.
7. #17 Texas (7-3) loses to Texas A&M (finish 7-4).
8. #18 Michigan (8-2) loses to Ohio State (finish 8-3 or 8-4).
9. #19 Virginia (9-2) loses to Virginia Tech.
10. #20 Tennessee (7-3) loses to Vanderbilt (finish 7-4).

If we assign generous probabilities to each of these necessary upsets (e.g., giving the "Chaos" scenario a 20-30% chance per team), the cumulative probability of this specific sequence occurring is approximately:
P(Playoff)=0.40*(.25)^9 = 0.0000015
Translated: The chance is roughly 1 in 65,000.

It's likely even more complicated because our resume strength is directly tied to USC being the best quality win possible and Washington being a high quality loss and we're sort of competing against them and a Michigan team (L USC, W Wash) who wants the same thing. Plus we'd also want the overall dragging down of the mid tier of the SEC and B12 to devalue their wins.

So while pretty much impossible, I think the path to getting in is actually the following:

1. OSU and Indiana win out until they face each other in the B10 Champ Game.
2. USC wins @Oregon, UCLA
3. Washington wins v Oregon, loses @UCLA
4. Michigan loses to OSU (and @MD?)

That gets us to 4th in the B10, behind OSU, Indiana, and USC. Oregon and Michigan both with worse resumes and out. So that solves the B10 issue.

5. Notre Dame loses to Syracuse or @Stanford- worse resume than us
6. Oklahoma loses to Mizzou and LSU
7. Mizzou loses to Arkansas
8. Texas loses to TAMU
9. Tenn loses @Florida, beats Vandy
10. Vandy loses @Tenn, losses to Kentucky
11. Georgia beats Georgia Tech
12. Utah loses a game KSU/@Kansas or BYU loses a game @Cincy/UCF
13. Houston loses a game TCU/@Bayor
15 Virginia loses to Virginia Tech or Miami or Georgia Tech loses an additional game

That would give the following:

1. OSU (B10 Champ)
2. Indiana
3. TAMU (SEC Champ)
4. Georgia
5. Ole Miss
6. Texas Tech (B12 champ)
7. USC
8. Alabama
9. Miami (ACC Champ)
10. Tulane (Group of 5)
11. BYU or Utah
12. Illinois

Basically 3 total bids need to go to ACC/B12/Notre Dame and then everyone else needs to choke. So theoretically possible but not really

 

[KnoxIllini2]

It's likely even more complicated because our resume strength is directly tied to USC being the best quality win possible and Washington being a high quality loss and we're sort of competing against them and a Michigan team (L USC, W Wash) who wants the same thing. Plus we'd also want the overall dragging down of the mid tier of the SEC and B12 to devalue their wins.

So while pretty much impossible, I think the path to getting in is actually the following:

1. OSU and Indiana win out until they face each other in the B10 Champ Game.
2. USC wins @Oregon, UCLA
3. Washington wins v Oregon, loses @UCLA
4. Michigan loses to OSU (and @MD?)

That gets us to 4th in the B10, behind OSU, Indiana, and USC. Oregon and Michigan both with worse resumes and out. So that solves the B10 issue.

5. Notre Dame loses to Syracuse or @Stanford- worse resume than us
6. Oklahoma loses to Mizzou and LSU
7. Mizzou loses to Arkansas
8. Texas loses to TAMU
9. Tenn loses @Florida, beats Vandy
10. Vandy loses @Tenn, losses to Kentucky
11. Georgia beats Georgia Tech
12. Utah loses a game KSU/@Kansas or BYU loses a game @Cincy/UCF
13. Houston loses a game TCU/@Bayor
15 Virginia loses to Virginia Tech or Miami or Georgia Tech loses an additional game

That would give the following:

1. OSU (B10 Champ)
2. Indiana
3. TAMU (SEC Champ)
4. Georgia
5. Ole Miss
6. Texas Tech (B12 champ)
7. USC
8. Alabama
9. Miami (ACC Champ)
10. Tulane (Group of 5)
11. BYU or Utah
12. Illinois

Basically 3 total bids need to go to ACC/B12/Notre Dame and then everyone else needs to choke. So theoretically possible but not really

Get outta here with sound logic, let us dream, baby.

 

[Illiniaaron]

For Illinois to crack the Top 12, the following 10 events likely need to happen simultaneously over the next two weeks:

1. Illinois wins out (Probability: ~40%)
2. #12 Utah (8-2) loses their final two games (to drop below 9-3).
3. #13 Miami (8-2) loses to an unranked ACC opponent.
4. #14 Vanderbilt (8-2) loses to Tennessee.
5. #15 USC (8-2) loses to UCLA or Notre Dame.
6. #16 Georgia Tech (9-1) collapses and loses out.
7. #17 Texas (7-3) loses to Texas A&M (finish 7-4).
8. #18 Michigan (8-2) loses to Ohio State (finish 8-3 or 8-4).
9. #19 Virginia (9-2) loses to Virginia Tech.
10. #20 Tennessee (7-3) loses to Vanderbilt (finish 7-4).

If we assign generous probabilities to each of these necessary upsets (e.g., giving the "Chaos" scenario a 20-30% chance per team), the cumulative probability of this specific sequence occurring is approximately:
P(Playoff)=0.40*(.25)^9 = 0.0000015
Translated: The chance is roughly 1 in 65,000.

 

[DeonThomas]

It's likely even more complicated because our resume strength is directly tied to USC being the best quality win possible and Washington being a high quality loss and we're sort of competing against them and a Michigan team (L USC, W Wash) who wants the same thing. Plus we'd also want the overall dragging down of the mid tier of the SEC and B12 to devalue their wins.

So while pretty much impossible, I think the path to getting in is actually the following:

1. OSU and Indiana win out until they face each other in the B10 Champ Game.
2. USC wins @Oregon, UCLA
3. Washington wins v Oregon, loses @UCLA
4. Michigan loses to OSU (and @MD?)

That gets us to 4th in the B10, behind OSU, Indiana, and USC. Oregon and Michigan both with worse resumes and out. So that solves the B10 issue.

5. Notre Dame loses to Syracuse or @Stanford- worse resume than us
6. Oklahoma loses to Mizzou and LSU
7. Mizzou loses to Arkansas
8. Texas loses to TAMU
9. Tenn loses @Florida, beats Vandy
10. Vandy loses @Tenn, losses to Kentucky
11. Georgia beats Georgia Tech
12. Utah loses a game KSU/@Kansas or BYU loses a game @Cincy/UCF
13. Houston loses a game TCU/@Bayor
15 Virginia loses to Virginia Tech or Miami or Georgia Tech loses an additional game

That would give the following:

1. OSU (B10 Champ)
2. Indiana
3. TAMU (SEC Champ)
4. Georgia
5. Ole Miss
6. Texas Tech (B12 champ)
7. USC
8. Alabama
9. Miami (ACC Champ)
10. Tulane (Group of 5)
11. BYU or Utah
12. Illinois

Basically 3 total bids need to go to ACC/B12/Notre Dame and then everyone else needs to choke. So theoretically possible but not really

I believe you nailed it!

 

[Fly Illini Fly!]

It's likely even more complicated because our resume strength is directly tied to USC being the best quality win possible and Washington being a high quality loss and we're sort of competing against them and a Michigan team (L USC, W Wash) who wants the same thing. Plus we'd also want the overall dragging down of the mid tier of the SEC and B12 to devalue their wins.

So while pretty much impossible, I think the path to getting in is actually the following:

1. OSU and Indiana win out until they face each other in the B10 Champ Game.
2. USC wins @Oregon, UCLA
3. Washington wins v Oregon, loses @UCLA
4. Michigan loses to OSU (and @MD?)

That gets us to 4th in the B10, behind OSU, Indiana, and USC. Oregon and Michigan both with worse resumes and out. So that solves the B10 issue.

5. Notre Dame loses to Syracuse or @Stanford- worse resume than us
6. Oklahoma loses to Mizzou and LSU
7. Mizzou loses to Arkansas
8. Texas loses to TAMU
9. Tenn loses @Florida, beats Vandy
10. Vandy loses @Tenn, losses to Kentucky
11. Georgia beats Georgia Tech
12. Utah loses a game KSU/@Kansas or BYU loses a game @Cincy/UCF
13. Houston loses a game TCU/@Bayor
15 Virginia loses to Virginia Tech or Miami or Georgia Tech loses an additional game

That would give the following:

1. OSU (B10 Champ)
2. Indiana
3. TAMU (SEC Champ)
4. Georgia
5. Ole Miss
6. Texas Tech (B12 champ)
7. USC
8. Alabama
9. Miami (ACC Champ)
10. Tulane (Group of 5)
11. BYU or Utah
12. Illinois

Basically 3 total bids need to go to ACC/B12/Notre Dame and then everyone else needs to choke. So theoretically possible but not really

If BAMA beat OU it would've been a bit more feasible, IMO.