Bowls/Playoff & Polls Thread

[Piotyr]

This is just a back-of-the-envelope calculation—please don't buy stocks based on this! Assuming the two games are independent, we can calculate the probability of winning both by multiplying their individual probabilities.
If the win rate (yes, that's my assumption) for each is 63% (0.63):
0.63×0.63=0.3969 (approx 0.40)
Therefore, the probability of winning both games is 40%.

Looking at SP+, Illinois' win probably against Wisconsin this week is 85%. Next week vs Northwestern isn't calculated yet (because he factors the current week into it), but last week against Maryland they were 80%, and I would have Maryland comparable to NW.

So, 85% and 80% = approximately 65%, which feels about right.

 

[jrichisamazing]

There is still a chance for some chaos, but I'm guessing the top 10 teams will roll from here on out. However, there are some scenarios that aren't too far fetched that would have the committee sweating...

1) Ga Tech beats Georgia but doesn't win the ACC championship. Would they put GT in? It would most likely be at the expense of a 2 loss SEC school.

2) USC beats Oregon. Would they put USC in and keep Oregon in. Would both teams miss out? Or maybe put USC in and drop Oregon.

3) Bama picks up their 3rd loss in the SEC championship. Once again, its the scenario where making your championship game could be a bad thing. Does this drop Bama out of the playoff? I'm all for less SEC teams in the CFP, but nobody should ever get penalized for playing in a Championship game.

I really don't expect 1 or 2 to happen. Georgia and Oregon will both win easily IMO. 3 is a very real possibility, though.

These are just some scenarios that stuck out to me. I'm sure there are plenty of others.

 

[Juju]

For Illinois to crack the Top 12, the following 10 events likely need to happen simultaneously over the next two weeks:

1. Illinois wins out (Probability: ~40%)
2. #12 Utah (8-2) loses their final two games (to drop below 9-3).
3. #13 Miami (8-2) loses to an unranked ACC opponent.
4. #14 Vanderbilt (8-2) loses to Tennessee.
5. #15 USC (8-2) loses to UCLA or Notre Dame.
6. #16 Georgia Tech (9-1) collapses and loses out.
7. #17 Texas (7-3) loses to Texas A&M (finish 7-4).
8. #18 Michigan (8-2) loses to Ohio State (finish 8-3 or 8-4).
9. #19 Virginia (9-2) loses to Virginia Tech.
10. #20 Tennessee (7-3) loses to Vanderbilt (finish 7-4).

If we assign generous probabilities to each of these necessary upsets (e.g., giving the "Chaos" scenario a 20-30% chance per team), the cumulative probability of this specific sequence occurring is approximately:
P(Playoff)=0.40*(.25)^9 = 0.0000015
Translated: The chance is roughly 1 in 65,000.

When I was 13 years old, my grandmother took me and my sister to the McDonald's on Mattis(the one next to Sonic) in Champaign. One of the things I got was a large fry. McDonald's Monopoly was going on and I peeled one of the game pieces off my fry box. I won $50 instant cash. Back then, they printed the odds of winning certain prizes in fine print on the fry boxes. I found the odds for instant $50 cash and I vividly remember it saying 1: 122,500.

If I beat those odds as a 13-year old kid, we can make the CFP that we have almost twice as much better odds to get into right now than I did to win $50 instant cash in McDonald's Monopoly! I'm drinking the Kool-Aid!! Let's GOOOOO!!