Bracketology (Week of March 1st)

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#226      
I can't take a #1 defensive ranking seriously when you play in the MVC. Please convince me otherwise.

LOL. I'm the one that has to convince you that the computer metrics are more accurate than your eye test from one half of basketball?
 
#227      
LOL. I'm the one that has to convince you that the computer metrics are more accurate than your eye test from one half of basketball?

Ok I'll bite. The only other team top 90 in NET in the MVC is Drake. So why are we putting so much stock into their #1 defensive ranking?

It's not like they score the cover off the ball too
 
#228      
Ok I'll bite. The only other team top 90 in NET in the MVC is Drake. So why are we putting so much stock into their #1 defensive ranking?

It's not like they score the cover off the ball too

Do you understand how KenPom works? That's a legitimate question. Because it takes their strength of schedule into account.

They had the 17th ranked defense in the country (against the same MVC schedule) in 2018 and they made the Final Four. And this year their defense is 10(!) points per 100 possessions better than they were in 2018.
 
#229      
Wisconsin may end up in the 8/9 game and Michigan State may end up in the play-in game. Those were 2 of the 4 Big Ten teams who were expected to make deep tournament runs.

I'm so glad that Illinois lived up to the pre-season hype/expectations.
 
#231      
Do you understand how KenPom works? That's a legitimate question. Because it takes their strength of schedule into account.

They had the 17th ranked defense in the country (against the same MVC schedule) in 2018 and they made the Final Four. And this year their defense is 10(!) points per 100 possessions better than they were in 2018.

This is a genuine question: How in the world can a team be ranked #1 in defensive efficiency when their opponents ranked 115 in offensive efficiency? All this tells me is that the conference just flat out isn't all that good. Sometimes Kenpom is wierd.

And regarding their final four run... was very impressive but they got there on 3 buzzer beaters.
 
#232      
Chicago, IL
This is a genuine question: How in the world can a team be ranked #1 in defensive efficiency when their opponents ranked 115 in offensive efficiency? All this tells me is that the conference just flat out isn't all that good. Sometimes Kenpom is wierd.

And regarding their final four run... was very impressive but they got there on 3 buzzer beaters.
It means they're efficient because their competition isn't as strong as other teams. Some may try to deny that's the case, but if Loyola played a Big Ten slate of games, it's unlikely they'd be #1 in Kenpom on defense.

Are they a good defensive team? Probably. Are they tougher than what we've seen in the Big Ten? Highly doubtful.
 
#233      
This is a genuine question: How in the world can a team be ranked #1 in defensive efficiency when their opponents ranked 115 in offensive efficiency? All this tells me is that the conference just flat out isn't all that good. Sometimes Kenpom is wierd.

And regarding their final four run... was very impressive but they got there on 3 buzzer beaters.
it means that they are the 1000 pound gorilla in a small pond - they statistically dominate their competition compared to their opponent's opponents. plus this year's metrics have sparse non-conference comparisons. the question is how good is the predictive value.
 
#234      
It means they're efficient because their competition isn't as strong as other teams. Some may try to deny that's the case, but if Loyola played a Big Ten slate of games, it's unlikely they'd be #1 in Kenpom on defense.

Are they a good defensive team? Probably. Are they tougher than what we've seen in the Big Ten? Highly doubtful.

Right. This is essentially my point. When I see a #1 defensive ranking I expect that ranking to hold up relatively well to any strength of schedule (yes I know that's not how Kenpom works).

If we can agree that Loyola would be nowhere near #1 if they played in the B10 then I stand by my point that I'm not really afraid of them because of that defensive ranking.
 
#236      
Kenpom loves Loyola because they’ve had a bunch of blowouts in the MVC. They are ranked #9 overall. But they also lost to the only 2 decent teams they played outside the MVC (Wisconsin, Richmond).

If committee uses kenpom they are way higher than a 8/9. If they use the (great record, stats, but haven’t beat anyone), they probably get that 8/9.
 
#237      
6 of our players fouled out- 6!

lute Olson went on a PR campaign leading up to the game on how physical we play and how the refs needed to take control of the game from the start- and it clearly worked. One of the most egregious displays of refs kowtowing to a coach I’ve ever seen

Yeah, if it was organic to the game, you might think it was reasonable. But the fact that he lobbied the refs long before the game started made it surreal to watch.

That Illinois team was physical, but it was from having a stable of excellent bigs. It's not like we were doing things other teams wouldn't if they had the horses.
 
#238      
Kenpom loves Loyola because they’ve had a bunch of blowouts in the MVC. They are ranked #9 overall. But they also lost to the only 2 decent teams they played outside the MVC (Wisconsin, Richmond).

If committee uses kenpom they are way higher than a 8/9. If they use the (great record, stats, but haven’t beat anyone), they probably get that 8/9.
Agree. The computer models aren't perfect. Definitely SOS effects the results even though the models try to account for it. Houston is another example. Houston has only played 2 games in the top 50 sagarin, and 3 quad 1 NET games. Its hard to model these teams when they only play terrible opponents. Thats why Gonzaga went on a campaign to play good teams in the non-conference. What was that? Like 20 years ago or something. The committee has said in the past that they use these models, but they also look at the last 10 games, quality wins etc. Teams like Houston, Loyola, Colgate etc don't pass the eye test.
 
#241      
I have never seen more people not understand how KenPom works.
No, you don't understand. Loyola is a mid-major so they shouldn't count for anything. Just like how Gonzaga obviously is garbage because they play in the WCC. Clearly they can't compete with any power conference schools (except for Kansas, West Virginia, Virginia and Iowa, but they all suck too).
 
#242      
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#245      
So ... does the higher seed get to choose its uniform color from here on out, or are they considered the “home” team, or ...??? How does that work?
 
#247      
Got bored earlier today and looked at where the original venues for this year's tournament would have been. Illinois' potential road to Indianapolis for the Final Four would have probably looked something like this:

-1st/2nd round: Lexington (Detroit would have also been an option but the selection committee would have likely podded Michigan there; plus Lexington is a bit closer to Champaign than Detroit)
-Sweet 16/Elite 8: Minneapolis (4 regional sites are Denver, Memphis, Minneapolis, and Brooklyn; Denver and Memphis are easy to decide as that's where Gonzaga and Baylor would be sent. It would have been interesting to see how the selection committee would have ranked Illinois and Michigan as the 3rd and 4th #1 seed. The team that gets ranked 3rd gets sent to Minneapolis, 4th gets sent to Brooklyn)
 
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