There is no "magic number" and 20 wins is certainly not a lock.
Also, we'd need 10 more to reach that number.
Bracketology
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There is no "magic number" and 20 wins is certainly not a lock.
Also, we'd need 10 more to reach that number.
Pretty sure you still only need to add 9 to 11 to get to 20. Maybe there is new math.
Pretty sure you still only need to add 9 to 11 to get to 20. Maybe there is new math.
We only have 10 wins that count.
Yep. The D2 win doesn't count.
I was under assumption that one can count towards your win total, but no more.
That is the case for football with FCS wins. In basketball it is not officially counted in your RPI and I believe it will not show up on the information page that the selection committee receives.
In order of likelihood
1. PSU
2 @Rutgers
3. @PSU
4. Iowa
5. Michigan state
Those are the only games I'd call us favorites in and that MSU game is in March because of course it is. Kenpom agrees with those 5 + Maryland at home. Personally I don't see a 25 point turnaround and it's not like the computer analyzes it like that.
So yeah, I don't see a path to 20 wins. Maybe Northwestern does their typical conference collapse and gives us 2 wins. I'm not so sure this year, but hey. We need some big luck either way. Even with 20 wins I don't think we get in unless we pick up a win vs Purdue/Indiana/Wisconsin too.
Found this on the new advanced stats page while poking around. Not great for the Illini even though it has generally been fairly positive.
http://barttorvik.com/conf.php?conf=B10
http://barttorvik.com/conf.php?conf=B10
Given how we've played on the road, I'd have a hard time feeling good about any path to 20. That said, we've been pretty up and down in games and over the season. If we can pull ourselves up a bit, I think it's doable.
You're not looking hard enough?
The path of least resistance looks like
Maryland
Iowa
@Penn State
Minnesota
@Northwestern
Penn State
Northwestern
@Nebraska
@Rutgers
I think that would be enough.
The way i see it in terms of getting to 9 more wins:
Slim chance of winning: Steal 1 of these (most likely is beating wisky, but im not syaing that is "likely"
@IU
@Purdue
vs Wisky
Toss ups: Go 4-4 or 3-5 (should beat Mich at home, mich at home, nw at home at MINIMUM)
vs Mich
vs MD (im sure i'll get called out for this but i think the team gets up after the beatdown)
@Mich
vs Minny
@ NW
vs NW
@ Nebraska
vs MSU
Should wins: Win 4/5 or 5/5..should sweep PSU, win at rutgers and beat iowa at home at MINIMUM here
vs Iowa
@ Iowa
vs PSU
@ PSU
@ Rutgers
This gets us to between 8 and 10 wins. I think sweeping the should wins would set us up for success.
Slim chance of winning: Steal 1 of these (most likely is beating wisky, but im not syaing that is "likely"
@IU
@Purdue
vs Wisky
Toss ups: Go 4-4 or 3-5 (should beat Mich at home, mich at home, nw at home at MINIMUM)
vs Mich
vs MD (im sure i'll get called out for this but i think the team gets up after the beatdown)
@Mich
vs Minny
@ NW
vs NW
@ Nebraska
vs MSU
Should wins: Win 4/5 or 5/5..should sweep PSU, win at rutgers and beat iowa at home at MINIMUM here
vs Iowa
@ Iowa
vs PSU
@ PSU
@ Rutgers
This gets us to between 8 and 10 wins. I think sweeping the should wins would set us up for success.
Illini1221
Peru,IL
I'd place the road game against Iowa as a toss up as well.
Interesting that at the start of the season we thought we had a relatively easy conference schedule. Not so much anymore...All of a sudden every team in conference besides Iowa/Rutgers will likely finish with an RPI in the top 100. Indiana, Wisky, Purdue might not even be the obvious top 3...Minnesota has surprised many and is looking like a top 30 team. Maryland twice, Michigan twice, Northwrstern twice is great because they like us are bubble teams. Nebraska isn't a bad loss anymore on the road, and is all of a sudden probably a pretty good win. We have a TON of opportunities agains 20-60ish rated teams, we have a path.
I just see a bunch of potential wins and potential losses on our schedule. Tough to predict what this team will ultimately become. Tough to predict how good every opponent is too. I don't see any easy wins, but with maximum effort there are wins on the schedule. We could go 4-14 if this team defends like it did at Maryland, but if our effort stays closer to this past Ohio St. game, then we could get to something more like 12-6, probably somewhere in between the two records is where we'll end up. Teams with ultra-quick guards will be our achilles heel. I think 10+ conference wins and at least one win in the BIG tourney gets us in. Gonna be a roller coaster ride, but I'm looking forward to seeing how this plays out.
Let's hope that the Illini come out scrapping the rest of the season.
Let's hope that the Illini come out scrapping the rest of the season.
Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
- Bloomington, IL
3 road games as "should wins" in the B1G, regardless of the opponent, is pushing it. The only road game that KenPom has us favored is Rutgers. PSU is currently at a 46% chance, Nebraska at 41% (for comparison sake, @ Purdue is currently 13%). We've got to hold serve at home to have a chance this year. Road wins will be gravy.
Fair point.....let me readjust here:
Slim chance of winning: Steal 1 of these (most likely is beating wisky, but im not syaing that is "likely"
@IU
@Purdue
vs Wisky
Toss ups: Go 5-5 or 4-6 (should beat Mich at home, mich at home, nw at home at MINIMUM)
vs Mich
vs MD (im sure i'll get called out for this but i think the team gets up after the beatdown)
@Mich
vs Minny
@ NW
vs NW
@ Nebraska
vs MSU
@ Iowa
@ PSU
Should wins: Win all 3
vs Iowa
vs PSU
@ Rutgers
This gets us 8-9 more wins..
I think the next 5 games will be a good barometer for this team. There is a huge chance we lose all of them. @IU, Mich, MD, @PU, and @Mich. The IU and PU games are essentially losses. That leaves a MD team that dismantled us and a home and home against Mich. If we go 0-5, we aren't dancing, too much ground to make up. 2-3 would be some sort of miracle, but I think 1-4 is the most likely outcome. Minny and NW scare me. They are playing like top 40/30 teams. Most likely 7 or 8 B1G teams make the tourney. Hell, Neb is on fire, now I'm happy we only play them once.
Locks:
PU
IU
Wisc
Probables:
Mich
MD
Bubblers:
Mich St.
UI
Minny
NW
OSU?
Neb?
So out of those 6ish bubble teams, 2 or 3 will make it. I dont think OSU or Neb will, though in a similar mind, I cannot imagine Mich St. not making it. I think two spots are going to come down to Minny, NW, and UI. My hope is, with the exception of Rutgers and PSU, all other B1G teams have at least 7 wins, which should make the conference looks middle--hopefully getting the B1G to 8 tourney teams.
Locks:
PU
IU
Wisc
Probables:
Mich
MD
Bubblers:
Mich St.
UI
Minny
NW
OSU?
Neb?
So out of those 6ish bubble teams, 2 or 3 will make it. I dont think OSU or Neb will, though in a similar mind, I cannot imagine Mich St. not making it. I think two spots are going to come down to Minny, NW, and UI. My hope is, with the exception of Rutgers and PSU, all other B1G teams have at least 7 wins, which should make the conference looks middle--hopefully getting the B1G to 8 tourney teams.
I think you're overestimating the league's status right now. I wouldn't call any team a "lock", the quality wins aren't there other than IU, which looks a little shaky at this time. I certainly expect them along with UW and Purdue to make it, but wouldn't go so far as "lock". And the "probables" are suspect as well, I'd have MSU there ahead of both scUM and MD. They did lose to Northeastern, but Bridges was out so that one probably gets discounted. So I'd throw all of them in with the other bubble teams right now.
RichBradIllini
- Peoria
That's highly doubtful. Last year was seven for the B1G and we were seen as a strong conference. Anything beyond 5 picks this year looks optimistic.
Strength of conference and the number of teams you get in don't necessarily correlate. There looks to be a raft of bubblish teams this year, they could all get in or they could all not, it just depends how the cookie crumbles.
5 seems very low though.
FeelYourPaign
- So Cal
Big 12 is strong
Big 12 has three in the top 25, and two other teams receiving votes in either the AP or Coaches poll. B1G has three in the top 25 and five others receiving votes. The Big 12 is clearly stronger at the top, but overall?
I guess my real point (more of a question, I guess) is this: Given the dilution of talent in NCAA ball, aren't there a whole lot of teams in every conference that can get blown out on any given night?
Wow 30th in RPI seems extremely high to me. Props to the administration for getting us to this point. We really haven't play more than two or three top 25 teams and lost all of them. Great scheduling. If we finish top 50 and get to 20 wins (including the McKendree game), I wonder if they can leave us out. I think 21 at that point gets us in. Also, second in the B1G, wow.
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