1/24 Bracketology

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#201      

Illini2010-11

Sugar Grove
Past tournament results are usually the worst way to gauge a team. It's like chasing patterns that are just scatterplots. How Purdue did in the tournament two years ago as a 4 seed against North Texas will have zero bearing on this year's team. Matt Painter doesn't suddenly forget how to coach basketball teams because it's the NCAA Tournament.
Could not agree more!

Unfortunately for B1G teams in general, the past decade of struggles in the Tourney have dictated the narrative that there is a tangible reason that they underperform (and until they don't, expect them to continue to struggle).

There have been many underlying reasons floated around:

-General style of B1G play
-Officiating differences in B1G vs tournament
-Coaching, etc.

I am sure there may be some truth to this, but I personally do not like the narrative. The B1G gets a lot of teams in the tournament that are in seeds that make it difficult to make it to the second week, and when they are seeded high, it always seems that their matchups are against teams way under seeded (i.e., Illini playing Loyola). Also, neutral site games can always be a crap shoot (certain fans will always root for the underdog).

I just hope the B1G has a good run this year, so we can finally dispel this narrative that past performance in tournaments somehow impact future performance.
 
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#203      
This year's team has a Matt Painter as coach. He's been the coach for many of their underperformances in the tournament. I'm not about to give them a pass because they are number 1 at the end of January. I can't give them the benefit of the doubt, I need to see it in the tournament. Past performance matters to me.
I’m not giving him a pass either. But maybe he’s about due. It seems to take coaches a while to get over the hump. It took Self some time to break through. Who knows?
 
#204      
This year's team has a Matt Painter as coach. He's been the coach for many of their underperformances in the tournament. I'm not about to give them a pass because they are number 1 at the end of January. I can't give them the benefit of the doubt, I need to see it in the tournament. Past performance matters to me.
I'm with you on this one. It's like Gonzaga. I know one day they'll win it all, but I will never pick them to do so in my brackets. Is that rational? Probably not. But Painter and Purdue in general have just been consistently above-average for the better part of two decades. No reason to believe they'll rise up and be great this time. Remember, Painter and Edey's Purdue team was ranked #1 last year too and it didn't amount to much.
 
#206      

danielb927

Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
Sorry, look at Kansas. Their results under Self are scattered all over the board. The point though is they are consistently a high seed and put themselves in a good position to be successful.

Poll for the room (seriously, take a guess before looking below) - in what percentage of tournaments do you think Kansas has missed the Sweet Sixteen under Self?






Answer: 39% (7 of 18).

And before you write those off as "down years" - keep in mind that Kansas has never been worse than a 4 seed under Self. Their 7 misses were as 3, 4, 1, 2, 2, 4, and 3 seeds. Make sure that sinks in: a top 4 seed 18 times, "expected" to reach the S16 every single year, and they miss almost 40% of the time. That's March Madness in a nutshell.
 
#207      

DeonThomas

South Carolina
Some interesting facts from Jeff Sagarin's CBB Ratings page. Jeff is the KenPom before there was KenPom.
A cool thing about Jeff's page is he puts the days game predictions at the bottom of the page. One interesting game today Baylor @ Texas.
I tried to fix this but the site changes the formatting. Removing spaces or tabs. sorry
Rating Favorite _
MONEY=odds to 100 _
FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _
======================================================================================================
TEXAS 3.01 3.69 2.82 2.61 baylor 157 61% 149.85

EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence
EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG
@ Texas 3.61 172 63% Baylor




Conference Rankings (teams in the top 30)
1. Big 12 (6)
2. B1G (6)
3. Big East? (5)
4. SEC (4)
5. PAC 12 (2)

The Illini are the second highest rated B1G team.
4. Purdue
16. Illinois
17. Indiana
20. Rutgers
24. Iowa
28. Maryland
33. OSU
37. MSU
40. Northwestern
46. Penn State
57. Michigan
61. Wisconsin
102. Nebraska
144. Minnesota
From an NCAA Tourney perspective, I'd go with these tiers right now (recognizing that things can change over the final 10 conference games + BTT):

Tier 1: Purdue (1) = lock

Tier 2: Indiana, Illiniois, Rutgers (3) = heavy favorites; presently a 6 seed or higher; (80% chance that all three will earn a bid)

Tier 3: Iowa, Maryland, MSU (3) = pretty good shot to be invited (but at least one will hit hard times and struggle. Maybe MD?)

Tier 4: Ohio State, NW, PSU, Michigan, Wisconsin (5) = lots of work yet to do, but 1 or 2 may fall on the right side of the bubble

Tier 5: Nebraska, Minny (2) = bye, bye
 
#208      
From an NCAA Tourney perspective, I'd go with these tiers right now (recognizing that things can change over the final 10 conference games + BTT):

Tier 1: Purdue (1) = lock

Tier 2: Indiana, Illiniois, Rutgers (3) = heavy favorites; presently a 6 seed or higher; (80% chance that all three will earn a bid)

Tier 3: Iowa, Maryland, MSU (3) = pretty good shot to be invited (but at least one will hit hard times and struggle. Maybe MD?)

Tier 4: Ohio State, NW, PSU, Michigan, Wisconsin (5) = lots of work yet to do, but 1 or 2 may fall on the right side of the bubble

Tier 5: Nebraska, Minny (2) = bye, bye
Northwestern has 4 quad 1 wins and 2 more quad 2 wins without any Q3/Q4 losses. They’re going to have a pretty good resume and without Nebraska and Minnesota on the schedule they won’t have a bad loss.
 
#209      
Northwestern has 4 quad 1 wins and 2 more quad 2 wins without any Q3/Q4 losses. They’re going to have a pretty good resume and without Nebraska and Minnesota on the schedule they won’t have a bad loss.
Agreed. Barring a catastrophic meltdown, they’ll be dancing for the second time ever.
 
#210      
January 5th we were 9-5 (0-3) and on the 9/10 line.

January 30th we are 15-6 (6-4) and on the 5/6 line.

My predictions:

16-15... OUT (IN if advance to BTTC)
17-14... OUT (IN w/ 2 BTT wins)
18-13... 11 (LAST 4 IN..2 BTT wins for Last 4 Byes)
19-12... 9 (2 BTT wins for 8 seed)
20-11... 7 (2 BTT wins for 6 seed)
21-10... 7 (1 BTT win for 6 seed)
22-9... 6 (2 BTT wins for 5 seed)
23-8... 5 (2 BTT wins for 4 seed)
24-7... 4 (2 BTT wins for 3 seed)
25-6... 2 (BTT Champs=1 seed)
 
#211      
Interesting take for a team that is a unanimous #1 right now. :unsure:
Yeah, I know it's weird ... but that is my gut intuition. Don't get me wrong, they deserve all the respect and the ranking for the resume they have put together. However, they have had SO many close calls, and I think they're in serious danger of getting a "bad reffing crew" in March that dings Edey with two quick ones. They just remind me too much of a (slightly better) version of our team last year with Kofi ... we looked amazing at times, but we were especially prone to an Achilles' Heel of [being cold from three] + [Kofi being effectively doubled or in foul trouble]. However, fair enough that Purdue has earned their chops at this point; this was nothing but my personal opinion having watched them a few times.
 
#212      
Don't really disagree with your conference characterization, but I quibble with this one. Purdue is the consensus overall #1 seed and #1 in the country. What more do you want? They don't top out on the analytics, but if you watch them play, they certainly pass the eye test.
Not OP, but I think there’s a really strong likelihood of Edey getting in foul trouble almost immediately in Purdue’s second or third game and barely being able to play and eventually fouling out, causing Purdue to get upset.

The way the B1G officiates him is insane, and it won’t be the same in March.
 
#214      
Does the committee do their seeding solely on season performance thus far, or does the "eye test" come into it at all?
Say Purdue keeps going how they have been and are a lock for a 1 seed, BUT Edey gets hurt on Saturday or Sunday of the BTT and will be out for the dance. Clearly Purdue isn't deserving of a 1 seed without him. So do they seed them based on the team they have been all year, or based on the team that they will actually be fielding for the tournament?
I realize this is a very specific and highly unlikely hypothetical exercise, but I'm just curious how you all think they'd handle something like this. I think they'd have to still give them a 1 based on the record because it's the safe thing to do, even if they are no where near a top 4 team without their best player.
 
#215      

Illini2010-11

Sugar Grove
Does the committee do their seeding solely on season performance thus far, or does the "eye test" come into it at all?
Say Purdue keeps going how they have been and are a lock for a 1 seed, BUT Edey gets hurt on Saturday or Sunday of the BTT and will be out for the dance. Clearly Purdue isn't deserving of a 1 seed without him. So do they seed them based on the team they have been all year, or based on the team that they will actually be fielding for the tournament?
I realize this is a very specific and highly unlikely hypothetical exercise, but I'm just curious how you all think they'd handle something like this. I think they'd have to still give them a 1 based on the record because it's the safe thing to do, even if they are no where near a top 4 team without their best player.

The following is a snippet:

"

NCAA EVALUATION TOOL (NET)​

The NET is one of many resources/tools available to the committee in the selection, seeding and bracketing process. Computer models cannot accurately evaluate qualitative factors such as games missed by key players or coaches, travel difficulties and other effects of specific games.

Each committee member independently evaluates a vast amount of information during the process to make individual decisions. It is these qualitative, quantitative and subjective opinions -- developed after hours of personal observations, discussion with coaches, directors of athletics and commissioners, and review and comparison of various data -- that each individual ultimately will determine their vote on all issues related to selections, seeding and bracketing.

The NET has two components: the Team Value Index, which is based on game results and factors the result, the game location and outcome. The other component is net efficiency (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency), which is adjusted to account for the strength of the opponent and the location of the game.

Each December, the NCAA will release the first official NET rankings, and then post those daily at www.ncaa.com.
"

Based on this, a key injury may have an impact on seeding, but naturally the Purdue hypothetical, that body of work would still dictate a #1 seed, but it would be a blessing for whatever 8/9 seed gets matched in their region. Also, by that point, the bracket is practically already finished by Saturday of B1G Tourney, so an injury at that point would probably not change much. Let's say it happens during Illini game in last game of reg season, and then Purdue loses early in B1G Tourney without Edey, then maybe the seeding will be impacted.
 
#216      
I know the NET rankings might change, but damn ... if we can win two this week (vs. Nebraska and at Iowa), we would actually be in a REALLY good situation on Sunday:

Record: 17-6
NET Ranking: #26 (and likely top 20)
SOS Ranking: #26 (and likely a tad higher)
vs. Quad 1: 5-5
vs. Quad 2: 3-1
vs. Quad 3: 3-0
vs. Quad 4: 6-0

We'd then have the following opportunities left, with only the home game vs. Minnesota as a true chance to really trip up and get a bad loss. I will include what I consider to be rather conservative predictions (win at home, lose the road games) and then where we would end up with those results:

W vs. #220 Minnesota (Q4)
W vs. #22 Rutgers (Q1)
L at #53 Penn State (Q1)
L at #20 Indiana (Q1)
W vs. #40 Northwestern (Q2)
L at #29 Ohio State (Q1)
W vs. #83 Michigan (Q3)
L at #3 Purdue (Q1)

Record: 21-10
NET Ranking: ??
SOS Ranking: Definitely higher than #26
vs. Quad 1: 6-9
vs. Quad 2: 4-1
vs. Quad 3: 4-0
vs. Quad 4: 7-0

Again, I think this team can do better than that, but that's still in 7-seed territory, no? Get a win at OSU or PSU or even both, and we are REALLY looking at a nice seed. All this is simply to say what has been laid out a ton before ... we control our own destiny in a mess of a Big Ten with so many opportunities in front of us. Let's do this!
 
#217      
I know the NET rankings might change, but damn ... if we can win two this week (vs. Nebraska and at Iowa), we would actually be in a REALLY good situation on Sunday:

Record: 17-6
NET Ranking: #26 (and likely top 20)
SOS Ranking: #26 (and likely a tad higher)
vs. Quad 1: 5-5
vs. Quad 2: 3-1
vs. Quad 3: 3-0
vs. Quad 4: 6-0

We'd then have the following opportunities left, with only the home game vs. Minnesota as a true chance to really trip up and get a bad loss. I will include what I consider to be rather conservative predictions (win at home, lose the road games) and then where we would end up with those results:

W vs. #220 Minnesota (Q4)
W vs. #22 Rutgers (Q1)
L at #53 Penn State (Q1)
L at #20 Indiana (Q1)
W vs. #40 Northwestern (Q2)
L at #29 Ohio State (Q1)
W vs. #83 Michigan (Q3)
L at #3 Purdue (Q1)

Record: 21-10
NET Ranking: ??
SOS Ranking: Definitely higher than #26
vs. Quad 1: 6-9
vs. Quad 2: 4-1
vs. Quad 3: 4-0
vs. Quad 4: 7-0

Again, I think this team can do better than that, but that's still in 7-seed territory, no? Get a win at OSU or PSU or even both, and we are REALLY looking at a nice seed. All this is simply to say what has been laid out a ton before ... we control our own destiny in a mess of a Big Ten with so many opportunities in front of us. Let's do this!
There is a very good probability that the Wisconsin wins both drop down 1 quadrant. That would put us at 8-10 in Q1 and Q2 before the BTT. I agree that's still the 7 seed range regardless, just wanted to point that out.

For comparison, I believe last year we were 13-10 with the #8 SOS. Source: https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-nitty
 
#219      
We are going to beat Indiana when we play them again, book it
I pray you are right!! There are three wins the rest of the year that I DESPERATELY want more than the other games (in order):

at Iowa: Mostly because I will be there and given that it's their first sellout of the year, I am hoping that means I'll be accompanied by plenty of orange and hopefully the Krush!

at Indiana: Revenge would taste so sweet on their home floor if we just demolished them in that overrated dump.

vs. Michigan: Sending Hunter out winless against the Illini would be hilarious.
 
#221      

Illini2010-11

Sugar Grove
I pray you are right!! There are three wins the rest of the year that I DESPERATELY want more than the other games (in order):

at Iowa: Mostly because I will be there and given that it's their first sellout of the year, I am hoping that means I'll be accompanied by plenty of orange and hopefully the Krush!

at Indiana: Revenge would taste so sweet on their home floor if we just demolished them in that overrated dump.

vs. Michigan: Sending Hunter out winless against the Illini would be hilarious.
The fourth that I would add is:

vs Northwestern: Do not want the in-state school to beat us twice in same year (in basketball)
 
#222      
Past tournament results is the ONLY way to gauge a team if you are going to say 'Purdue is the consensus overall #1 seed and #1 in the country. What more do you want?' I want to see them advance to the Final Four for me to be sold on them and not flame out earlier than expected or to a lower seeded team which they have done numerous times. If they don't get to the Final Four this year what will be the excuse next year if they are in the same position? Will it be 'Past tournament results are usually the worst way to gauge a team. '

You can't convince me that the past doesn't matter when that's all I have to go by. That goes for any team in any sport that has a long history of flaming out in the playoffs or tournament. You are not going to get the benefit of the doubt because you had a great regular season if you haven't shown that you can do it in the postseason.
How about the 5 guys on the floor with this year's team? With all the transfers now, for many teams, the only thing that stays the same is the coach.
 
#223      

illini55

The Villages, FL
From an NCAA Tourney perspective, I'd go with these tiers right now (recognizing that things can change over the final 10 conference games + BTT):

Tier 1: Purdue (1) = lock

Tier 2: Indiana, Illiniois, Rutgers (3) = heavy favorites; presently a 6 seed or higher; (80% chance that all three will earn a bid)

Tier 3: Iowa, Maryland, MSU (3) = pretty good shot to be invited (but at least one will hit hard times and struggle. Maybe MD?)

Tier 4: Ohio State, NW, PSU, Michigan, Wisconsin (5) = lots of work yet to do, but 1 or 2 may fall on the right side of the bubble

Tier 5: Nebraska, Minny (2) = bye, bye
I just don't see Nebraska or Minnesota getting a bye, much less two of them. /s
 
#225      
I don't think that we'll shoot 9/23 from the stripe and 9/21 from three feet in again. That said, I wasn't a huge fan of the let TJD get his and shut everyone else down approach. Will be interested to see if BU changes that.

Mayer being a complete 0 also made a huge impact. If he was healthy and even makes a couple shots that game could be completely different. Also he's a plus defensively.
 
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