Omaha.
Bracketology
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Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Correct, just an error on my part! Cannot lose to Minny or Michigan at home.
skyIdub
Winged Warrior
Memphis is closer than Omaha. Tennessee obviously above us but were fighting Alabama and others for the second spot there. Pittsburgh is technically 7 miles closer than Omaha but I think we send in a list of our order preferences so not sure which one would win out. We won’t jump Purdue for Indy but Marquette’s resume is very similar comparing Q1 and 2 wins.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Honestly, how easy it is to fly there matters just as much if it isn’t like Indy, St. Louis, Chicago, etc. We would have more fans in Charlotte (American Airlines hub) than Pittsburgh, IMO.
I want Omaha. Don't bring logic into this.
Lol I couldn’t help myself. I’ve been doing a lot of bracketology the past week and know these distances way too closely than a normal person should.
Trust me, I'm way too familiar with the driving distances at this point
- I promise that if they end up in Omaha, you will hear me on the broadcastsskyIdub
Winged Warrior
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Since I didn't know this myself yesterday while posting on my phone, I figured I would share with others. These are the First Weekend sites this year:
Thursday/Saturday
Charlotte, NC
Omaha, NE (Creighton = host and cannot play there)
Pittsburgh, PA
Salt Lake City, UT (Utah = host and cannot play there)
Friday/Sunday
New York, NY - Barclays Center in Brooklyn
Indianapolis, IN
Memphis, TN (Memphis = host and cannot play there)
Spokane, WA
And the Sweet Sixteen/Elite Eight locations:
Thursday/Saturday
Boston, MA
Los Angeles, CA
Friday/Sunday
Dallas, TX
Detroit, MI
And, of course, we will see the Illini cut down the nets in Glendale, AZ!
Thursday/Saturday
Charlotte, NC
Omaha, NE (Creighton = host and cannot play there)
Pittsburgh, PA
Salt Lake City, UT (Utah = host and cannot play there)
Friday/Sunday
New York, NY - Barclays Center in Brooklyn
Indianapolis, IN
Memphis, TN (Memphis = host and cannot play there)
Spokane, WA
And the Sweet Sixteen/Elite Eight locations:
Thursday/Saturday
Boston, MA
Los Angeles, CA
Friday/Sunday
Dallas, TX
Detroit, MI
And, of course, we will see the Illini cut down the nets in Glendale, AZ!
I think you are close. When you look at the remaining schedule, I think it will probably fall out like this. With Illinois, I have orange colored glasses so I hope for the best. I hate Duke, but they could win out with their only tough game left at home against UNC. I can see Marquette going 6-3 (23-8) the rest of the way, and getting a 3 seed. South Carolina will be 25-6 and is a lock for a 3 seed and could be a 2 if Illinois doesn't take care of business like I know they can. Wisconsin will go 22-9 and be a 3 or 4 seed. Iowa State will lose 4 more and go 22-9. Creighton is going to be 21-10 and land at a 5. Baylor is going to be 22-9 and snag a 4 seed. Baring some crazy stuff happening in the conference tournaments like, I think its going to be very close to this.
1 seed: uconn, purdue, tn, unc
2 seed: houston, az, duke, Illinois
3 seed: Marquette, Kansas, South Carolina, Wisconsin
4 seed: Alabama, Iowa State, Auburn, Baylor
Is it just me, or are the 7-10 seeds in bracketmatrix looking very strong right now? There are some very battle tested teams in that group. If I'm a 1 or 2 seed I'm not looking forward to playing a Texas or MSU in round 2.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
The way the season is going that group is going to BE the 2-3 seeds by the time we actually get to March.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I wanted to take a look back at some of our NCAA Tournament appearances to try to gauge just how much the BTT matters. Again, I just flatly reject that the Thursday and Friday results cannot sway anything ... if you want to say "the BTT doesn't matter," I would argue the earliest you could make that claim is for the semifinals on Saturday. It is of course relatively common knowledge that the finals on Sunday are NOT considered by the Committee (unless they have to hold a spot for a sub-.500 team or something). For simplicity's sake, I will look at our AP ranking, as I really don't feel like digging up old RPI metrics by week, if those are even available. 
2000: We were 19-8 and ranked #21 going into the BTT. 2 wins vs. the top 25 on the year, both at home (#13 Ohio State and #16 Indiana). Realistically, I would have thought we'd be looking at a #7 or #6 seed or so with that resume, but I guess they did consider "how a team finished" back then, and we ended the regular season winning 8 of our last 9. In the BTT, we beat #13 Indiana, beat Penn State and lost to #5 Michigan State, giving us a 21-8 record on the morning of Selection Sunday. We earned a #4 seed in the Tournament. Even with that hot finish, I would think that getting another 2 wins in the BTT probably pushed us from a #5 to a #4.
2001: We beat a bad Purdue team and lost to an okay Indiana team in the BTT and still got a #1 seed, so I am guessing we indeed had that locked up before the BTT began.
2002: Going into the BTT, we were 23-7, ranked #10 and had just won 8 in a row to end the regular season. That seems like clearly a #3 seed to me. We beat a bad Minnesota team in the BTT before losing to #21 Ohio State on Saturday, to finish at 24-7 on Selection Sunday, earning us a #4 seed. I do not think it is a stretch to say another win over a top 25 OSU team on a neutral floor could have swapped us with the lowest #3 seed.
2003: We were 21-6, ranked #13 and finished the year winning 6 of 8. That looks like a #4 seed on merit (possibly a high #5), but we then proceeded to win three in Chicago and hang a BTT Championship banner ... and still got a #4 seed. So, nothing overly conclusive I guess, but it's worth noting that due to how the bracket played out in the BTT, our three wins (Northwestern, Indiana and Ohio State) were not very impressive. Still, those extra two wins before Selection Sunday likely didn't move the needle.
2004: The Committee must have REALLY not thought much of the Big Ten this year, because we were 24-5, ranked #12 and had just won 12 games in a row on Selection Sunday ... and we got a #5 seed. So clearly, the BTT did not matter this year.
2005: We likely had a #1 seed locked up in February. However, we went and won the BTT just for the fun of it.
2006: I firmly believe a bad BTT performance cost us a #3 seed this year. Going into the BTT, we were 25-5, ranked #9 and won 6 of our final 7 games (including two top 25 wins, one on the road). However, we lost our first BTT game to MSU, and Iowa (who won the BTT that year) got a #3 seed while being ranked #20 (!!) and we got a #4 seed. It seems patently obvious that a BTT win or two would have mattered here.
2007: Given that we were literally a #12 seed this year (ridiculous as a Power Five team), it seems plausible that our two wins in the BTT to get to Saturday likely snuck us into the field at all...
2013: I believe they had the removed "last 12 games" as a factor by this point due to unbalanced conference schedules. Man, this was a really weird year. We were 21-11 going into the BTT, and it seems clear that big wins earlier in the year (#10 Gonzaga, #8 OSU, #1 Indiana at #8 Minnesota) were carrying us big time. We ended up getting a #7 seed (which seemed really high to me that year, but what do I know??), but it is unclear if our one BTT win vs. Minnesota kept us off that #8 line.
2021: I think we pretty clearly had a #1 seed before the BTT, but beating a Tournament team in Rutgers and a top 10 Iowa team likely removed any and all doubt.
2022: This one is tough and requires speculation. We were 22-8 and #15 in the NET before the BTT, so we likely had a #4 seed already. However, it is unclear if getting two more Quad 1 wins (Indiana and Iowa on neutral floors) could have given us a shot at a #3 seed?
2023: Similarly to 2013, we were coasting on wins we got months ago. Going into the BTT, we were 20-11 and ranked #35 in the NET rankings, so that indicates a #9 seed (which we got). However, if we would have gotten past Penn State and Northwestern, we would have doubled our Quad 1 wins. That maybe only gets us up to a #8 seed (i.e., no difference), but if we then beat Indiana on the Saturday, I think that very well might have snuck us off the 8/9 line ... but impossible to say.
Anyway, I think my takeaway is that whether or not the BTT can fundamentally change your seed really depends on a few factors. The wins you get there need to be Quad 1 or Quad 2, and you need to have already been on the border between two seed lines for it to move the needle. I think we likely cost ourselves a better potential seed in both 2002 and 2006, and it's possible we did in 2022. I also think our good performance in the BTT clearly made a Selection Sunday difference in 2007. For other years, it seems to have been totally immaterial.
2000: We were 19-8 and ranked #21 going into the BTT. 2 wins vs. the top 25 on the year, both at home (#13 Ohio State and #16 Indiana). Realistically, I would have thought we'd be looking at a #7 or #6 seed or so with that resume, but I guess they did consider "how a team finished" back then, and we ended the regular season winning 8 of our last 9. In the BTT, we beat #13 Indiana, beat Penn State and lost to #5 Michigan State, giving us a 21-8 record on the morning of Selection Sunday. We earned a #4 seed in the Tournament. Even with that hot finish, I would think that getting another 2 wins in the BTT probably pushed us from a #5 to a #4.
2001: We beat a bad Purdue team and lost to an okay Indiana team in the BTT and still got a #1 seed, so I am guessing we indeed had that locked up before the BTT began.
2002: Going into the BTT, we were 23-7, ranked #10 and had just won 8 in a row to end the regular season. That seems like clearly a #3 seed to me. We beat a bad Minnesota team in the BTT before losing to #21 Ohio State on Saturday, to finish at 24-7 on Selection Sunday, earning us a #4 seed. I do not think it is a stretch to say another win over a top 25 OSU team on a neutral floor could have swapped us with the lowest #3 seed.
2003: We were 21-6, ranked #13 and finished the year winning 6 of 8. That looks like a #4 seed on merit (possibly a high #5), but we then proceeded to win three in Chicago and hang a BTT Championship banner ... and still got a #4 seed. So, nothing overly conclusive I guess, but it's worth noting that due to how the bracket played out in the BTT, our three wins (Northwestern, Indiana and Ohio State) were not very impressive. Still, those extra two wins before Selection Sunday likely didn't move the needle.
2004: The Committee must have REALLY not thought much of the Big Ten this year, because we were 24-5, ranked #12 and had just won 12 games in a row on Selection Sunday ... and we got a #5 seed. So clearly, the BTT did not matter this year.
2005: We likely had a #1 seed locked up in February.
However, we went and won the BTT just for the fun of it. 2006: I firmly believe a bad BTT performance cost us a #3 seed this year. Going into the BTT, we were 25-5, ranked #9 and won 6 of our final 7 games (including two top 25 wins, one on the road). However, we lost our first BTT game to MSU, and Iowa (who won the BTT that year) got a #3 seed while being ranked #20 (!!) and we got a #4 seed. It seems patently obvious that a BTT win or two would have mattered here.
2007: Given that we were literally a #12 seed this year (ridiculous as a Power Five team), it seems plausible that our two wins in the BTT to get to Saturday likely snuck us into the field at all...
2013: I believe they had the removed "last 12 games" as a factor by this point due to unbalanced conference schedules. Man, this was a really weird year. We were 21-11 going into the BTT, and it seems clear that big wins earlier in the year (#10 Gonzaga, #8 OSU, #1 Indiana at #8 Minnesota) were carrying us big time. We ended up getting a #7 seed (which seemed really high to me that year, but what do I know??), but it is unclear if our one BTT win vs. Minnesota kept us off that #8 line.
2021: I think we pretty clearly had a #1 seed before the BTT, but beating a Tournament team in Rutgers and a top 10 Iowa team likely removed any and all doubt.
2022: This one is tough and requires speculation. We were 22-8 and #15 in the NET before the BTT, so we likely had a #4 seed already. However, it is unclear if getting two more Quad 1 wins (Indiana and Iowa on neutral floors) could have given us a shot at a #3 seed?
2023: Similarly to 2013, we were coasting on wins we got months ago. Going into the BTT, we were 20-11 and ranked #35 in the NET rankings, so that indicates a #9 seed (which we got). However, if we would have gotten past Penn State and Northwestern, we would have doubled our Quad 1 wins. That maybe only gets us up to a #8 seed (i.e., no difference), but if we then beat Indiana on the Saturday, I think that very well might have snuck us off the 8/9 line ... but impossible to say.
Anyway, I think my takeaway is that whether or not the BTT can fundamentally change your seed really depends on a few factors. The wins you get there need to be Quad 1 or Quad 2, and you need to have already been on the border between two seed lines for it to move the needle. I think we likely cost ourselves a better potential seed in both 2002 and 2006, and it's possible we did in 2022. I also think our good performance in the BTT clearly made a Selection Sunday difference in 2007. For other years, it seems to have been totally immaterial.
Lucky for you, we’re talking about the NCAA, so logic will have nothing to do with it.
Illini in Indiana
- Indiana
Well, I'd take ESPN's bracket right now. If we can stay at a 3 we will have a good shot.
Idk, BYU is another one of those under-seeded Kenpom darlings that have given us trouble the last few years.
Lots of folks in here who feel we are locked into a 2 or 3 seed. I don't see it nearly that clear cut yet. Lot of tough games left (especially relative to other teams' remaining schedules). Sure hope you all are right, I'd love to get off that 4/5 line but too much to slog through yet for me.
theNewGuy
- Dallas, TX
Exactly what I was thinking, but I think we match up well against anyone, unlike other years
Not sure who thinks this. Bracket matrix doesn’t even have us as a top 3 seed and there are enough games left that we could theoretically be out of the tournament completely if we lose 7 of 9 - as unlikely as this is. Keep stacking wins
Yes there are others who think as I do, but the below is just from the last two pages of this thread.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I mean, I guess it depends on semantics here, but I have not seen anyone say we are "locked in." Whether or not we are a 3-seed today is of course totally subjective, but one thing is for sure ... if we don't win a lot of games down the stretch, we certainly will not be one. I'd say we have to finish 7-2 to have a shot, JMO. It will of course depend on the mix of wins ... beating Purdue and Wisconsin for two marquee wins but dropping a game at MSU and Iowa is a preferrable 2-loss scenario, IMO.
I'd say that 75% of the field wouldn't make it if they went 2-9 down the stretch.
Now, if we puked all over ourselves and went 4-5.... we'd be an 8 or 9 and it wouldn't be pleasant around here.
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