Based on this:
I believe Illini actually have two upsets total. In 2004, the 5 seeded Illini beat 4 seeded Cincinnati. However, your general point stands.
I have had the exact pair of shoes myself for a year. Very comfortable!
One loss out only 6% chance of winning according to computers lol. Good news if we win out is I think we’d have the tiebreaker for the #1 seed (better record vs Nebby so long as they stay ahead of Maryland). Given our close wins lately, I’m kinda feeling the computers on this one. I’d love to see a 2000s or 2021 hot streak to close out the reg season and hang another banner!
I stand corrected. nice job my friend
You know what's odd, we so rarely win as the higher seed but when we do, man do we win in dominant fashion!
Would someone know where one would go to get the data used in this type of simulation? Have always wanted to try creating my own model but not sure of a good accessible (preferably free) source of data can be found.
I just want to go semi-OT here and state my case as an adamant defender of the Big Ten Tournament. I feel like it takes a ton of heat for being this pointless money grab (and maybe it is in some ways), but I would be curious to hear how many people who hate on it have never attended. I have gone twice in Chicago - witnessed us receive a beatdown from Iowa in 2019 and witnessed us choke away a needed victory vs. PSU last year. The first one was about a 50/50 crowd because we were so bad that year, and the second one was at least 80% orange. Anyway, the atmosphere of the BTT was an absolute blast with all of the fans of other Big Ten teams walking around the concourse and the bars in the United Center full of fans whose teams were not currently playing. I have heard Indianapolis hosts it even better, and I have no trouble believing that having attended a couple of Big Ten football championships there and just generally visiting my sister who lived there for nine years.
I was at that 2003 game in Indy...ND was absolutely on fire from 3 point land. Not much fun to watch...Let's just win out and stay off that 4/5 line all together.I don't know about anybody else, but I have nightmares about being a 4/5. At best, it has left great Illini teams losing in the Sweet Sixteen to #1 seeds that we just could not hang with ... at worst, it has been a quick end to an otherwise good season:
Modern NCAAT Format: Illinois as #4 or #5 Seed
1986: #4 seed. Lost in Second Round to #5 Alabama 58-56.
1990: #5 seed. Lost in First Round to #12 Dayton 88-86.
1998: #5 seed. Lost in Second Round to #4 Maryland 67-61.
2000: #4 seed. Lost in Second Round to #5 Florida 93-76.
2002: #4 seed. Lost in Sweet Sixteen to #1 Kansas 73-69.
2003: #4 seed. Lost in Second Round to #5 Notre Dame 68-60.
2004: #5 seed. Lost in Sweet Sixteen to #1 Duke 72-62.
2006: #4 seed. Lost in Second Round to #5 Washington 67-64.
2009: #5 seed. Lost in First Round to #12 Western Kentucky 76-72.
2002: #4 seed. Lost in Second Round to #5 Houston 68-53.
When you are on that 4/5 line, you are signing yourself up for a brutal battle in the Second Round with an equally matched team (or a potential First Round scare like in 2003 or 2022 even if you win). Then if you survive that fight to the finish, you likely have a #1 seed waiting for you.
I know the grass is not always greener, but as an Illini fan who has watched us lose earlier than I felt we should SO many times in the top half of the bracket, being a #3 seed just sounds so nice, haha.
Data is abundant, intelligence is scarce
Data is abundant, intelligence is scarce
My first Illinois game. Bittersweet memory. The day before, my dad took me to shoot around where I got Dee's autograph and was interviewed by a Gazette writer. Made it into the pregame coverage in the paper the next day which was a big deal for an 11 year old.
That Marquette team is one of my favorite non-Illini teams ever. Wade, Travis Diener and freshman Steve Novak draining threes. Fun team. The Illinois-Notre Dame game was the opposite of fun though so I don't blame you.
I like the ones on the left.
Wow, I remember reading that edition of the NG as a kid! IIRC one of the photos was of Dee rising up for a dunk during practice warm-ups and that's how I learned he had the capability lol.
Yes, good memory! Had that photo hanging on my wall for years. He actually missed that dunk off the back of the rim. (But no one else needs to know that.)
Man, I would feel incredibly sorry for the 1 seed that drew this team as an 8 seed if that were to happen.
It is a very fun event and a good way to get fan bases together. But until the final actually has meaning for seeding (ie it is played on a Saturday), it’s still more of an exhibition for me.
