Dan
Admin
Illinois a 4 seed in the Bracket Matrix-
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
The Selection Show
Sunday, March 17th, 5:00pm CT, CBS
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
The Selection Show
Sunday, March 17th, 5:00pm CT, CBS
Bracketology
- Status
I don't understand why Alabama would be ahead of us?
And I still don't see why MSU is a lock.
And I still don't see why MSU is a lock.
Yeah, there's error - They have our data switched the Alabama's. If you scroll across you see we're all 4's with one 3 - that would be the 3.98 they show for Bama
They played an extremely challenging schedule to start the season. Can't penalize them for that. They and Wisconsin have the same argument, which is valid.
With Alabama, they still have better wins. Keep in mind, we still don't have any "elite" wins. I know the the NET calls the shots, but we still don't have one win over an AP top 25 team. Not one.
If we were to jump them, they'd have an argument right back at us.
turnaround3
- 1st & Daniel
I think at this point it's ever so marginally more probable than not if we can win 2 BTT games we'll squeeze the last #3 seed.
Would really help if we could get either blue blood clinging to their #3 (KU or Duke) to go one and done in their tourney.
Would really help if we could get either blue blood clinging to their #3 (KU or Duke) to go one and done in their tourney.
We don't have any top notch wins. I think this ultimately keeps us off the 3 line unless we make a serious BTT run.
Need to win the BTT to get to a 3 imo, and even then the committee is often lazy with seed adjustments for the Sunday games unless it’s a bid thieve.
theNewGuy
- Dallas, TX
Does the NET change during postseason play? or is it stuck as Q3 loss?
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
It can change. IIRC last year one of our fringe Q1 wins dropped to Q2 during the BTT. Maryland could move back up if they win convincingly over Rutgers on Wednesday.
At the same time, the committee will see that it's borderline and probably not make a huge deal about whether it ends up landing just inside Q2 or Q3.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Well it does make our Q2 record look better...
Joking aside, I do not think this one loss (if it stays Q3) will have much impact on seeding, especially if committee looks at when the game took place (TSJ out).
Without TSJ. That will be factored in.
Keep scrollin’!!
I don't see a 3 happening. Best we can do is move up to the "best" 4 seed which means we stay out of Spokane and SLC.
That email needs to already be on its way.
Good news based on this is that is we end up a 4 seed, most of the 5 seeds don't look that strong. Now that's assuming it shakes out like this chart
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
Agreed. BracketMatrix is usually pretty good, but not perfect. More good news in that regard - nobody really in the 5-7 range is very strong.
The only thing to be concerned about is Auburn falling down to a 5 seed. They'll most likely play South Carolina next, which is on the Q1/Q2 cutoff at a neutral site, so shouldn't be a big mover for them either way. But I'd rather they win and pass us in the S-curve than lose and end up being the 5 seed we're paired with.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
The Bracket Matrix as of yesterday (i.e., did not factor in the Quad 1 Iowa win) had us as the third #4 seed. Here are the conference tournament matchups for our fellow competitors for the #3 and #4 seed spots (in order of the current seed line on that site and then using NET Rankings).
#3 SEEDS
#14 Baylor - vs. #18 Kansas (Q1), #41 Cincinnati (Q1) or #158 West Virginia (Q3). Then likely vs. #9 Iowa State (Q1).
#11 Creighton - vs. #64 Providence (Q2) or #198 Georgetown (Q3). Then likely vs. #13 Marquette (Q1).
#10 Duke - vs. #79 Syracuse (Q2), #80 NC State (Q2) or #214 Louisville (Q4). Then likely vs. #51 Virginia (Q2).
#18 Kansas - vs. #41 Cincinnati (Q1) or #158 West Virginia (Q3). Then vs. #14 Baylor (Q1). Then likely vs. #9 Iowa State (Q1).
#4 SEEDS
#19 Kentucky - vs. #46 Texas A&M (Q1) or #90 Ole Miss (Q2). Then likely vs. #8 Alabama (Q1).
#8 Alabama - vs. #35 Florida (Q1), #101 Georgia (Q3) or #156 Missouri (Q3). Then likely vs. #8 Kentucky (Q1).
#15 ILLINOIS - vs. #60 Iowa (Q2) or #54 Ohio State (Q2). Then likely vs. #37 Nebraska (Q1).
#6 Auburn - vs. #49 South Carolina (Q1), #109 Arkansas (Q3) or #203 Vanderbilt (Q4). Then likely vs. #5 Tennessee (Q1).
This is why the "screw the rest of the conference!" attitude some fans have is very misguided. Sure, if you're 2005 Illinois or this year's Purdue and you are just winning every game, strength of the conference will not matter. However, if you are having a #3/4 seed-type season, the strength or weakness of the conference is important. Some of these schools have multiple Q1 opportunities coming up if they keep winning.
Anyway, I think it will be more fun for me to watch everything if I have a rooting interest going in, and I imagine others agree! So this is what we should pull for:
1. Early round upsets of all kinds. Using KU as an example, a loss to Cincinnati (Q1) COULD allow us to jump them if we win two in the BTT ... but a KU loss to West Virginia (Q3), however unlikely, would definitely do the trick! Additionally, even if KU didn't beat WVU, the win would be relatively meaningless.
2. Duke and Kansas to specifically lose. They seem the most realistic to jump, and the losses they'd incur look worse than what the SEC teams would have.
#3 SEEDS
#14 Baylor - vs. #18 Kansas (Q1), #41 Cincinnati (Q1) or #158 West Virginia (Q3). Then likely vs. #9 Iowa State (Q1).
#11 Creighton - vs. #64 Providence (Q2) or #198 Georgetown (Q3). Then likely vs. #13 Marquette (Q1).
#10 Duke - vs. #79 Syracuse (Q2), #80 NC State (Q2) or #214 Louisville (Q4). Then likely vs. #51 Virginia (Q2).
#18 Kansas - vs. #41 Cincinnati (Q1) or #158 West Virginia (Q3). Then vs. #14 Baylor (Q1). Then likely vs. #9 Iowa State (Q1).
#4 SEEDS
#19 Kentucky - vs. #46 Texas A&M (Q1) or #90 Ole Miss (Q2). Then likely vs. #8 Alabama (Q1).
#8 Alabama - vs. #35 Florida (Q1), #101 Georgia (Q3) or #156 Missouri (Q3). Then likely vs. #8 Kentucky (Q1).
#15 ILLINOIS - vs. #60 Iowa (Q2) or #54 Ohio State (Q2). Then likely vs. #37 Nebraska (Q1).
#6 Auburn - vs. #49 South Carolina (Q1), #109 Arkansas (Q3) or #203 Vanderbilt (Q4). Then likely vs. #5 Tennessee (Q1).
This is why the "screw the rest of the conference!" attitude some fans have is very misguided. Sure, if you're 2005 Illinois or this year's Purdue and you are just winning every game, strength of the conference will not matter. However, if you are having a #3/4 seed-type season, the strength or weakness of the conference is important. Some of these schools have multiple Q1 opportunities coming up if they keep winning.
Anyway, I think it will be more fun for me to watch everything if I have a rooting interest going in, and I imagine others agree! So this is what we should pull for:
1. Early round upsets of all kinds. Using KU as an example, a loss to Cincinnati (Q1) COULD allow us to jump them if we win two in the BTT ... but a KU loss to West Virginia (Q3), however unlikely, would definitely do the trick! Additionally, even if KU didn't beat WVU, the win would be relatively meaningless.
2. Duke and Kansas to specifically lose. They seem the most realistic to jump, and the losses they'd incur look worse than what the SEC teams would have.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
It would be so Illinois to be paired with the #6 ranked NET team in the second round
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
It would be so Illinois to be paired with the #6 ranked NET team in the second round
It would be very similar to the Houston matchup in 2022.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Everyone needs to cheer like hell for the Terps this week! They fell to #77, so they are still REALLY close to that top 75 cutoff ... if they can sneak back in, we erase our Q3 loss AND get another Q1 win. This is their path:
vs. #102 Rutgers (Q3) on Wednesday. Maryland CANNOT lose this game. Beating RU might be enough to go up 2 spots if they win handily, maybe not.
vs. #22 Wisconsin (Q1) on Thursday. If the Terps can beat Rutgers and Wisconsin, they seem all-but guaranteed to sneak back into the top 75. We need the Terps playing on Friday!
vs. #50 Northwestern (Q1) on Friday. I don't see Maryland beating Northwestern in their third game in three days, but you never know.
I mean, it's gotta break in our favor at some point, right? Here's to finally getting a favorable draw this year!
I think we will get hosed on location this year. Basically every bracket projection that projects locations in addition to seeds has us in either SLC or Spokane.
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