Bracketology

Status
Not open for further replies.
#51      

lstewart53x3

lstewart53x3
Scottsdale, Arizona
lstewart53x3
Orange Roughy said:
What happened to everyone saying we had a 3 seed wrapped up if we won today against O$U? Why do we have to win tomorrow too now?

IMO, we will be a 4 unless we go to the Championship game...only because we are Illinois. Anyone else would already be a 3 seed.
Click to expand...
I don’t recall a single person on this board saying we would get in with a win against OSU alone. Most were saying we would need to win two in the B1G tourney to secure a 3. This was a Q2 game, tomorrow is a Q1 game. Win tomorrow and we likely secure a 3.
 
#52      

abchew2

A
abchew2
How likely is it OSU moves to top 50 in the net? They are showing at 53 as of 3/14 and a number of teams just within 50 lost to teams not as highly regarded as us. Given they kept it close they may just barely get there. That would be a nice consolation prize after Maryland screwed us.
 
#53      

BBlock24

B
BBlock24
abchew2 said:
How likely is it OSU moves to top 50 in the net? They are showing at 53 as of 3/14 and a number of teams just within 50 lost to teams not as highly regarded as us. Given they kept it close they may just barely get there. That would be a nice consolation prize after Maryland screwed us.
Click to expand...
OSU has moved to right at 50 from 53. Illinois is now 6-6 in Quad 1 games heading into today against Nebraska.

Doubt they stay there, however.
 
#54      

Illini2010-11

I
Sugar Grove
Illini2010-11
abchew2 said:
How likely is it OSU moves to top 50 in the net? They are showing at 53 as of 3/14 and a number of teams just within 50 lost to teams not as highly regarded as us. Given they kept it close they may just barely get there. That would be a nice consolation prize after Maryland screwed us.
Click to expand...
They are exactly at 50 right now in the recent update.
 
#56      

DeonThomas

DeonThomas
South Carolina
DeonThomas
Bucktown said:
Agree. Sagarin used to have a recency measure in his analysis. Early games should matter, but not as much as how a team finishes.
Click to expand...
That recency measure was used back when the Committee also weighted the final 10 games played by each team.

It's no longer considered a factor. Theoretically, each game over the course of a 32+ game season counts equally.
 
#57      

DeonThomas

DeonThomas
South Carolina
DeonThomas
Top 8 seeds are pretty much locks, except for the exact order. The #3 seeds are still debatable, but I like our chances. We could easily be placed in any of 3 regions --- East, South or West.

1-seeds: Houston (SO), Purdue (MW), UConn (EA) and UNC (W)
2-seeds: Marquette (SO), Iowa State (MW), Tennessee (EA) and Arizona (W)
3-seeds: Illinois (SO), Auburn (MW), Duke (EA) and Creighton (W)

The 3-seeds are up for grabs with these 6 teams currently battling in my view. Only Illinois and Auburn are still alive in their respective tournaments. I believe both Alabama and Kansas are looking at a 4 or 5 seed.

24-8 Illini
25-7 Auburn
24-8 Duke
23-9 Creighton
23-9 Kentucky
23-10 Baylor
 
#58      

Vinegarben

V
Vinegarben
I hope the Illini and coach aren't wringing their hands wondering what seed they are going to get in the NCAA. They need to just play the Big tourney games and they will land where they land. If they win it all they might be a 3. The one thing that has always been for sure in any polls or seedings-No matter what their records are-Duke, Kansas, North Carolina, Kentucky, MSU will always get the nod over the Illini! In my opinion MSU should not be in the tourney. They have played some tough teams but you do have to beat them too.
 
#59      

Bigtex

Bigtex
DFW
Bigtex
DeonThomas said:
Top 8 seeds are pretty much locks, except for the exact order. The #3 seeds are still debatable, but I like our chances. We could easily be placed in any of 3 regions --- East, South or West.

1-seeds: Houston (SO), Purdue (MW), UConn (EA) and UNC (W)
2-seeds: Marquette (SO), Iowa State (MW), Tennessee (EA) and Arizona (W)
3-seeds: Illinois (SO), Auburn (MW), Duke (EA) and Creighton (W)

The 3-seeds are up for grabs with these 6 teams currently battling in my view. Only Illinois and Auburn are still alive in their respective tournaments. I believe both Alabama and Kansas are looking at a 4 or 5 seed.

24-8 Illini
25-7 Auburn
24-8 Duke
23-9 Creighton
23-9 Kentucky
23-10 Baylor
Click to expand...
If we beat Nebraska we are a 3
Imo Kentucky will be a 3
Imo auburn will likely be a 3 but the sec tournament didn’t help their resume
Imo Creighton will be a 3

With duke, Baylor, Kansas and Alabama at the 4 line
 
#60      

Bucktown

B
Bucktown
DeonThomas said:
That recency measure was used back when the Committee also weighted the final 10 games played by each team.

It's no longer considered a factor. Theoretically, each game over the course of a 32+ game season counts equally.
Click to expand...
Yes, and I was saying it recency should matter.
 
#61      

Chief1976

C
Chief1976
Is anyone else concerned picking TENN in their bracket? They have been on a bit of a slide and have not looked functional last few games. Maybe it’s from conference play.
 
#62      

Illini in Indiana

I
Indiana
Illini in Indiana
Chance The Rapper Love GIF by The Voice
 
#63      

FreshlySqueezed

FreshlySqueezed
FreshlySqueezed
DeonThomas said:
Top 8 seeds are pretty much locks, except for the exact order. The #3 seeds are still debatable, but I like our chances. We could easily be placed in any of 3 regions --- East, South or West.

1-seeds: Houston (SO), Purdue (MW), UConn (EA) and UNC (W)
2-seeds: Marquette (SO), Iowa State (MW), Tennessee (EA) and Arizona (W)
3-seeds: Illinois (SO), Auburn (MW), Duke (EA) and Creighton (W)

The 3-seeds are up for grabs with these 6 teams currently battling in my view. Only Illinois and Auburn are still alive in their respective tournaments. I believe both Alabama and Kansas are looking at a 4 or 5 seed.

24-8 Illini
25-7 Auburn
24-8 Duke
23-9 Creighton
23-9 Kentucky
23-10 Baylor
Click to expand...

Auburn is not a 3 seed. They got their 2nd Q1 win last night. And now with the SEC tournament getting blown up, I don't see a path to a 3 seed for Auburn.
 
#65      

FreshlySqueezed

FreshlySqueezed
FreshlySqueezed
The Athletic has us as 13 overall. We jumped Kentucky but not Duke or Kansas yet.

Let's just win today to erase any doubt.
 
#66      

Iloveorangekoolaid

Iloveorangekoolaid
Iloveorangekoolaid
DeonThomas said:
Top 8 seeds are pretty much locks, except for the exact order. The #3 seeds are still debatable, but I like our chances. We could easily be placed in any of 3 regions --- East, South or West.

1-seeds: Houston (SO), Purdue (MW), UConn (EA) and UNC (W)
2-seeds: Marquette (SO), Iowa State (MW), Tennessee (EA) and Arizona (W)
3-seeds: Illinois (SO), Auburn (MW), Duke (EA) and Creighton (W)

The 3-seeds are up for grabs with these 6 teams currently battling in my view. Only Illinois and Auburn are still alive in their respective tournaments. I believe both Alabama and Kansas are looking at a 4 or 5 seed.

24-8 Illini
25-7 Auburn
24-8 Duke
23-9 Creighton
23-9 Kentucky
23-10 Baylor
Click to expand...
Baylor is the highest 3 seed. Swap them with Auburn. They have 9 more Q1 wins and beat them head to head. Creighton is the second 3 seed. Last 2 spots should down to Illinois, Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, Auburn.
 
#67      

OrangeBlue98

OrangeBlue98
Des Moines, IA
OrangeBlue98
grue2 said:
This goes hand in hand with my belief that the .NET rewards blowing out really weak teams. The algorithm doesn't seem to discount being very efficient against very bad teams sufficiently. I may be wrong. That is why my earlier request to see the alternate runs of the .NET. Lets see the evidence one way or another.
Click to expand...
I’ll continue to say this. As a person who makes his living in financial analysis, blindly following stats and data is a bad approach. At some point, humans have to provide the context that computers cannot provide.

Blindly following data is like the scene in The Office where they drive into the lake because GPS told them to drive in that direction.
 
#70      

CentralILLini

C
CentralILLini
Ive got Florida as a sneaky final four team. Not sure i wanna seem them as a 6 in the second round matchup, thought we do matchup pretty well with them. St Marys however? Yes please.
 
#71      

abchew2

A
abchew2
BBlock24 said:
OSU has moved to right at 50 from 53. Illinois is now 6-6 in Quad 1 games heading into today against Nebraska.

Doubt they stay there, however.
Click to expand...
Looking at the list the only team I can see still playing behind them is Oregon at 61 NET. I think there is a good chance they finish at 50 as I don’t see how Oregon can jump that many spots with one game. Genius of Brad to keep it close to give them enough boost to that Q1.
 
#74      

CleverHandle1

C
CleverHandle1
I know it's a big assumption, but for sake of argument let's "assume" the Illini is the last #3 seed. If they lose today, is there anyone on that #4th seed that could overtake them on that third seed line?

Would it be Auburn?
 
#75      

illiniE

I
illiniE
Thaillini22 said:
One might be tempted to say, "man, MSU in with a 19-14 record wtf?" To which many people would reply, "yeah, but metrics..."

So I'd ask, with what record would metrics not matter? I mean, theoretically, MSU could have the same efficiency numbers as they do now even with a worse record, right? (As in, if a couple two-tree of their wins were more efficient and a few of their losses were less inefficient, they could have lost more games but ended up with same-ish efficiency numbers, I think.)

Like, is a team ever gonna get in at 17-16? And if not, why should a team at 19-14 or 18-15? That just doesn't make sense lookin' at it IMO.
Click to expand...
Is your hypothetical 17-16 future team named MSU or Duke. If so they are in. If not they are out.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.