Chicago Bears 2025-2026

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#601      
Illinirog70
How about the Bear's rookie class this year? It took a while but all of Burden, Monongai, Loveland and the LT are starting Plus a DL and LB would be playing regular shifts if they weren't injured. Six drafted players making contributions, with an OL injured as well.

But the surprising star is Monongai. He's a BEAST and runs over and through people for the joy of it. I think he's even inspired Swift.

Lovin' those Bears!!
 
#602      
EyeoftheIllini
EyeoftheIllini said:
You go for two there so you know exactly what you need to win. If one assumes you’re going to miss the 2-pt conversion on the second touchdown (not crazy cuz they did miss one), you very likely give yourself virtually no time left for the third score.

To make anything work, they had to get a three and out on Bears. If they did that, they would have had the ball back with about 2:45 left, no time outs (but two minute warning) knowing you need two scores. They can then score with probably a 1 to 1.5 minutes left to recover onside kick and score again. If they kicked PAT, they get ball back but likely have only 20 or 30 seconds left for onside and score after they miss the 2-pt because they’re likely worried about leaving too much time on clock for Bears to score at end.

Bottom line is they needed to force a 3 and out and get a 2-pt conversion at some point and they didn’t.
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In case my above reply was too rambling, found this article this morning that explains it better.
www.sportingnews.com

Why Eagles went for 2-point conversion down 9 to Bears | Sporting News

Philadelphia felt it had to try.
www.sportingnews.com www.sportingnews.com
 
#604      
GoodePodzMelendez
It’s rare that I am wrong but Williams is a quality QB under the right coach and we have the right coach. We are seeing how important Johnson is as Detroit is falling apart and the Bears have ascended. Johnson and Vrabel will battle for COY.
 
#605      
phats22
clearly Williams is a work in progress but he generally protects the ball well, has dramatically cut down the sacks, and at least a few times a game uncorks throws that are truly jaw dropping -

i was waiting for the announcers to gush over his TD throw to Kmet yesterday: rolling out to his left, on the run and cross his body, with a defender in his face and with no chance to set his feet at all he dropped an absolute dime on Kmets hands.
 
#606      
phats22
#608      
Point-Illinois
I don’t buy the analytics piece in this case.

I get that statistics might say this or that, but this was a game where Chicago was running it down your throat. Even if you get some stops, can you do it on 2 separate possessions? With that little time left?

Knowing exactly how many possessions you need is great, but if the amount of possessions is an amount that most likely won’t happen, you have to take that into consideration.

Chicago’s win probability jumped up 5% after they got the ball back. I wonder if it would have been lower if it had only been an 8 point game.

In the end…I get it. It was a risk that could have had a huge payoff. It’s just not what I would have done.
 
#609      
lstewart53x3
Point-Illinois said:
I don’t buy the analytics piece in this case.

I get that statistics might say this or that, but this was a game where Chicago was running it down your throat. Even if you get some stops, can you do it on 2 separate possessions? With that little time left?

Knowing exactly how many possessions you need is great, but if the amount of possessions is an amount that most likely won’t happen, you have to take that into consideration.

Chicago’s win probability jumped up 5% after they got the ball back. I wonder if it would have been lower if it had only been an 8 point game.

In the end…I get it. It was a risk that could have had a huge payoff. It’s just not what I would have done.
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This is from FiveThirtyEight. It doesn’t really support going for 2 down 9:

IMG_0386.jpeg

You basically have the same odds of winning the game whether you get 2 or 1 there. Which makes sense. If after a touchdown, you’re down 9 points, you will need a 2 point conversion on this score or the next to tie and your percent odds of getting it would be the same now as it would be later.

But like you said, mentally, being down 8 and knowing a stop and score potentially ties the game is way different than being down 9 and feeling out of the game.

fivethirtyeight.com

When To Go For 2, For Real

“I can’t help but ask, one day many years later, when you find your previous awareness, cognition and choices are all wrong, will you keep going along the wrong…
fivethirtyeight.com fivethirtyeight.com
 
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#610      
EyeoftheIllini
Point-Illinois said:
I don’t buy the analytics piece in this case.

I get that statistics might say this or that, but this was a game where Chicago was running it down your throat. Even if you get some stops, can you do it on 2 separate possessions? With that little time left?

Knowing exactly how many possessions you need is great, but if the amount of possessions is an amount that most likely won’t happen, you have to take that into consideration.

Chicago’s win probability jumped up 5% after they got the ball back. I wonder if it would have been lower if it had only been an 8 point game.

In the end…I get it. It was a risk that could have had a huge payoff. It’s just not what I would have done.
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I don’t think it is analytics at all. I had no access to analytics or some chart when it happened, but thought it was the right move cuz you know exactly what you need to do to win. Either way it was going to be difficult.

If they had waited and got the ball and scored, how much time would have been on clock after that score? Likely not much, because you’re going to try and leave as little of time as possible so Bears can’t come back to break the tie. So when they miss 2-pt conversion the game is over because likely no time to get onside kick and score again.

As it was done, they had a clear albeit difficult path to a victory. If they had got a three and out, they would have the ball back with about 2:40 left with no timeouts but the 2-minute warning. You then look to score quicker to give yourself time for an onside kick and the second score.

Eagles needed a 2-pt conversion regardless of when they tried it. I guess if you believe the outcome of the 2-pt conversion would be different if they had tried it on second score rather than first then there is a case, but why would you believe that knowing what we saw. Also, the Eagles didn’t need two stops like you said. They needed one plus a successful onside kick. Certainly the latter doesn’t have the highest likelihood of success, but not out of the question.
 
#611      
tatupu70
EyeoftheIllini said:
I don’t think it is analytics at all. I had no access to analytics or some chart when it happened, but thought it was the right move cuz you know exactly what you need to do to win. Either way it was going to be difficult.

If they had waited and got the ball and scored, how much time would have been on clock after that score? Likely not much, because you’re going to try and leave as little of time as possible so Bears can’t come back to break the tie. So when they miss 2-pt conversion the game is over because likely no time to get onside kick and score again.

As it was done, they had a clear albeit difficult path to a victory. If they had got a three and out, they would have the ball back with about 2:40 left with no timeouts but the 2-minute warning. You then look to score quicker to give yourself time for an onside kick and the second score.

Eagles needed a 2-pt conversion regardless of when they tried it. I guess if you believe the outcome of the 2-pt conversion would be different if they had tried it on second score rather than first then there is a case, but why would you believe that knowing what we saw. Also, the Eagles didn’t need two stops like you said. They needed one plus a successful onside kick. Certainly the latter doesn’t have the highest likelihood of success, but not out of the question.
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The game was over whether they missed immediately or after the 2nd TD. I think that's the point. Getting the additional information early is no value.
 
#612      
EyeoftheIllini
lstewart53x3 said:
This is from FiveThirtyEight. It doesn’t really support going for 2 down 9:

View attachment 45346
You basically have the same odds of winning the game whether you get 2 or 1 there. Which makes sense. If after a touchdown, you’re down 9 points, you will need a 2 point conversion on this score or the next to tie and your percent odds of getting it would be the same now as it would be later.

But like you said, mentally, being down 8 and knowing a stop and score potentially ties the game is way different than being down 9 and feeling out of the game.

fivethirtyeight.com

When To Go For 2, For Real

“I can’t help but ask, one day many years later, when you find your previous awareness, cognition and choices are all wrong, will you keep going along the wrong…
fivethirtyeight.com fivethirtyeight.com
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These are professionals who likely have been involved in and seen tough comebacks. If their mental state when there is a path to victory is bad then Eagles have a lot more problems than when to try 2-pointer. I just don’t buy the mental aspect.
 
#614      
EyeoftheIllini
tatupu70 said:
The game was over whether they missed immediately or after the 2nd TD. I think that's the point. Getting the additional information early is no value.
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Game wasn’t over when they missed it on first score. There was a path to a win. Not an easy one but there still was one. Miss it on the second score and there no longer is a path for reason I have above.
 
#615      
tatupu70
EyeoftheIllini said:
Game wasn’t over when they missed it on first score. There was a path to a win. Not an easy one but there still was one. Miss it on the second score and there no longer is a path for reason I have above.
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lol--recovering 2 onside kicks? I don't consider that a path.
 
#617      
Grandpa
tatupu70 said:
lol--recovering 2 onside kicks? I don't consider that a path.
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Before the Eagles failed onside kick, what was the percentage of onside kicks against the Bears recovered by the kicking team this season?

edit, I had better add /S
 
#619      
Curbelo Fanboy
Point-Illinois said:
I don’t buy the analytics piece in this case.

I get that statistics might say this or that, but this was a game where Chicago was running it down your throat. Even if you get some stops, can you do it on 2 separate possessions? With that little time left?

Knowing exactly how many possessions you need is great, but if the amount of possessions is an amount that most likely won’t happen, you have to take that into consideration.

Chicago’s win probability jumped up 5% after they got the ball back. I wonder if it would have been lower if it had only been an 8 point game.

In the end…I get it. It was a risk that could have had a huge payoff. It’s just not what I would have done.
Click to expand...
Let’s play a 100 games with that scenario. I’m taking the one where I’m 8 down vs 9 with a chance at 7. Once I don’t get the 2 and am down 9 I have to do the following in 3 minutes

1. Get a stop on d. Probably can’t allow a first down
2. Drive down and either kick fg or score td
3. Recover an onside kick
4. Drive down and get the thing I didn’t get in step 2.
All while my team had checked out mentally cause we are down 2 scores at 9 with only 3 minutes left.
 
#620      
Point-Illinois
It’s way more simple than all this. (For me)

Every point is valuable.

Being up 8 may change the play calling the bears did on the ensuing drive as opposed to what they called with the cushion of a 2 score game.

Plus the Eagles wouldn’t have needed the onside kick and could have changed the field position game on that ensuing possession.

But like I said, for me, it’s simple. Only go for the lower % play (the 2PC) when you have to. It’s not what everyone would do, but it’s what I’d do. To each their own.
 
#621      
Piotyr
The thing is in these scenarios, it's not a case of missing the 2-pt now or making it later, it's that you know you need to go for 2 at some point. If you miss, either way it's 3 scores needed.

Waiting to the last second to miss doesn't give you any chance. Missing with 2 minutes at least gives you a chance to strategize needing 2 more scores.
 
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