Chicago Bears 2026-2027
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
It's possible it winds up a disaster for the Bears and it's possible Simmons winds up in the Hall of Fame and the Titans go nowhere, but today, on paper, this is like the platonic ideal of a trade that's good for both sides.
The net expected value of the Simmons end of the trade peaks very high right now and starts drifting downward, the break even point is in the vicinity of 2028, and it's all uphill from there with significant potential upside.
The Bears are likelier to win the 2027 title and the Titans are likelier to win the 2031 title than they were this morning.
I was really trying to make the point that the Bears didn't OVERPAY as bad as many are saying they did.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Simmons isn't a household name, but they weren't going to be able to get a comparable asset at significantly lower cost. It's a fair price and the kind of return a player like Simmons would be expected to command, he's elite at that position.
This deal fails for the Bears in one of two ways, either Simmons disappoints (Sauce Gardner) or gets hurt (Micah Parsons), or the QB-coach situation isn't actually worthy of a win-now investment (Khalil Mack).
Having an interior disruptor like this really makes the Bears better on paper, that was a major weakness. I think the logic is pretty sound. This means a likely cap nightmare in 2029, the first year of Caleb's now probably inevitable megabucks extension, but it's hard not to support a conviction that there are serious Super Bowl possibilities between now and then.
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That is exactly what is going to happen, but then they will just have to hit in the draft in the mid rounds. They will have to fill less-than-premium positions with good draft picks so that they can stay young, except for a few players.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
I mean it's sort of trite to say but what they actually have to do is win one of the next three Super Bowls.
I always analogize this to the Blackhawks, where there are certainly individual moves that were very dumb, but there was an overarching strategy of going all in to win now over and over again, which left a capped-out disaster area when Kane and Toews were both still in their 20's.
But because they won three cups, it would be absurd to say the strategy was wrong in the aggregate. No rational person would trade the 2015 Stanley Cup for the chance to be in the second round in 2019.
Banners fly forever.
mattcoldagelli
- Script Illinois Enthusiast
+ F*** Them Picks
This will improve all aspects of defense. More interior pressure, less need for Odeybingo to move inside. Less need for Gordon to blitz and less time for db's to have to cover. Cleaner lb's to cover short passes and slants. More enticing for Mack/and or Wright on the cheap. A+. The cost swap makes negligible. Two 28 to 32 picks for 5 year starter with 2 to 3 years all pro ability. FGB...LFG...
Illwinsagain
- Cary, IL
I hated hearing about 2 first round picks, but thought about it. The Bears should be picking late in the first round. I asked myself, if I was sitting at 29 and there was a stud DT available at 9, and the team with that pick would swap picks and we would have to give up a late first to move up, it would make all the sense in the world. So, I am good with the picks gone, considering the player that is still under contract for a few years.
Think two Dylan Theinemans for a game wrecker for 4 1/2 years. Solid players - but not game changers. Go big or go home.
And it starts now ...and 2nd 1st 3 seasons away.
Bears were extremely lucky to get Theineman and that pick is still higher hopefully than next two. LFG.
yea, but players in free agency signings are expensive and not sure how that works with salary cap issues
I disagree that the trade is a total bust if we don't WIN the SB. What if we make it to the NFC Championship all 3 years and get to a SB? I don't think any of us is ready to call that a bust of a season for the Bears.
If we miss the playoffs or get bounced in the 1st round all 3 years (ie Green Bay it) then I agree.
Agree alot but after 3 years existing team gets too expensive...
I understand. I just hate the have to win it all or it is a bust narrative. It's a bust if the team fails (no playoffs, lose early). It's a wash if the team is consistently in the hunt (NFC title games, Superbowl loser). It's a win if we win a title.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
I do too, but if your goal is to make the playoffs the most times you can, you don't do a trade like this.
The 2029 and 2030 Bears got worse today, those teams are going to have major cap problems that under-powered draft classes will have serious trouble making up for.
Those teams might look a lot like the 2025 Chiefs. An elite prime-age QB making gigantic money and helpless to do anything with his joke supporting cast.
It makes a big difference in perception whether that comes after a title or not.
I agree that it was a steep price the Bears paid but they seem to be going for it this season and Simmons signed a 3-year extension this past offseason. The Bears did have the money to go after Simmons because of Sweat's positive PED test suspension. $12.7 million of Sweat's remaining base salary for 2026 became voided and all future guarantees including his $27 million for 2027 were entirely non-guaranteed.
Bears freed up $17m in cap space earlier in the year with restructures. The Titans already paid him his guaranteed money. Bears owe $8m for this year. They get rid of Sweat and/or Johnson in the off season that will alleviate the contract for next year as well. I think Simmons is owed $26 or $28m next year.
If the Bears do what is expected and have draft picks of 25-32 in the next 2 drafts. there is no way you are getting a player anywhere near Simmons' caliber. He is a top 2 or 3 DT that plays every down (85%) and is double teamed on every play.
You have to pay Caleb in 2 years, the WR's in 3. That's a kick the can problem that you worry abour later and with the cap expanding huge every year, they will find a way to make it work. As long as Ben is the HC, not worried about draft pick 26-32.
If the Bears do what is expected and have draft picks of 25-32 in the next 2 drafts. there is no way you are getting a player anywhere near Simmons' caliber. He is a top 2 or 3 DT that plays every down (85%) and is double teamed on every play.
You have to pay Caleb in 2 years, the WR's in 3. That's a kick the can problem that you worry abour later and with the cap expanding huge every year, they will find a way to make it work. As long as Ben is the HC, not worried about draft pick 26-32.