Losing those last two to the Reds have me pretty down on this team’s chances the rest of the way. I think they pretty much MUST take 3 of 4 from the Cards this weekend to have a chance.
So, I’m kind of mentally moving on to next year.
Barring any trades, the Cubs have a solid group of starting position players in Contreras, Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, Schwarber and Heyward. Hoerner could be another starter, or he could be a flash in the pan. Bote, Caratini and Happ are the beginnings of a decent bench. I suppose Garcia could be in the mix for the bench, too.
I don’t see how you can head into 2020 with any expectations of getting anything of value from Almora, Kemp, Russell and Descalso, and fully expect at least three of those to be DFA’ed or non-tendered before the beginning of next season if the Cubs can’t trade them.
Darvish, Hendricks and Quintana are three reliable starters. The Cubs have to be concerned about Lester going into next year. They have Chatwood, Graveman, Mills, Alzolay and Rea as candidates for 5th starter, swing man, and stopgap starters.
Kimbrel, Ryan and Wick are the only regulars under contract in the bullpen. I assume Phelps’ option will be picked up. The rest of the bullpen will be filled out by some combination of the depth starters I listed above and Maples, Wieck, Norwood and Underwood.
So, to field a championship caliber team, the Cubs need a starting outfielder and then another outfielder and middle infielder for depth. The middle infielder has got to be pretty close to starter quality unless you are really sure one of Hoerner, Bote, or Happ can be the guy.
The pitching situation is grim. They probably need at least one more starter capable of giving them at least 150 league average inning.
And then that bullpen... Wick looks really good. Ryan has added a reliable 2019 to his good 2016 with Detroit. Who knows with Kimbrel? Phelps pretty much had to come back because there’s no one else to do it. Even if you assume Kimbrel can be healthy and back to his normal self and that the Cubs can scrounge at least one decent reliever from their AAA pile, they likely have to acquire at least two more top flight relievers to have an anywhere near-championship caliber pen.
So, put that together and you’ll looking at needing two outfielders, an infielder, a starting pitcher and two relievers.
After arbitration and picking up the options of Rizzo, Quintana and Phelps, you’re looking at a payroll of right about $182MM. That gives you about $27MM to play with under the luxury tax.
You’re not going to be able to get all six of those players for that amount via free agency. This tells me, we’re probably going to see the first big trade of Major League talent since.the Starlin Castro trade four years ago.