Chicago Cubs 2021 season

#876      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL
It’s easy for Passan to pick the WS champs and say baseball is a great business.
The Braves are the only team owned by a publicly traded company and thus the only one for which there is that kind of transparency available. Passan didn't "pick" anything.

The very simple reality is that of the overall pie of baseball revenue, the owners share is growing and the player's share is shrinking. And that point of slicing the pie has gone from the MLB players making a higher percentage of the revenue than NFL/NBA players to a lower percentage. That's why this dispute exists.

And what is being demanded by the owners would rapidly accelerate their growing share of the pie under any possible set of circumstances, beyond any reasonable doubt. The press has been reluctant to use these words, but the CBT is already essentially a salary cap and with what the owners are demanding would be at least as much restriction on team spending as the NBA salary cap.

Since at least the 2020 Covid dispute and likely much further back than that, the owners have been gearing up for an apocalyptic confrontation with the union. They have not and will not bargain in good faith, large amounts of games being missed was always part of the plan, and they believe that withholding game checks from the players who have less financial security and short careers to exploit will break them. That has been a very successful strategy for the NBA and NFL in recent times, we'll see. But my bet is that the 60 game 2020 quasi season is the absolute maximum amount of baseball we'll see this year, and we'll only see that if the players do in fact cave to ownership demands. I hope I'm wrong on both counts, but that's my read of it.

Baseball labor relations has been a very fragile ecosystem since forever, and ultimately what's happening is the invasive species of sabermetrics and the new universal understanding of how to value players has disturbed that ecosystem and this is the conflict where those contradictions will need to be resolved.
 
#877      
The Braves are the only team owned by a publicly traded company and thus the only one for which there is that kind of transparency available. Passan didn't "pick" anything.

The very simple reality is that of the overall pie of baseball revenue, the owners share is growing and the player's share is shrinking. And that point of slicing the pie has gone from the MLB players making a higher percentage of the revenue than NFL/NBA players to a lower percentage. That's why this dispute exists.

And what is being demanded by the owners would rapidly accelerate their growing share of the pie under any possible set of circumstances, beyond any reasonable doubt. The press has been reluctant to use these words, but the CBT is already essentially a salary cap and with what the owners are demanding would be at least as much restriction on team spending as the NBA salary cap.

Since at least the 2020 Covid dispute and likely much further back than that, the owners have been gearing up for an apocalyptic confrontation with the union. They have not and will not bargain in good faith, large amounts of games being missed was always part of the plan, and they believe that withholding game checks from the players who have less financial security and short careers to exploit will break them. That has been a very successful strategy for the NBA and NFL in recent times, we'll see. But my bet is that the 60 game 2020 quasi season is the absolute maximum amount of baseball we'll see this year, and we'll only see that if the players do in fact cave to ownership demands. I hope I'm wrong on both counts, but that's my read of it.

Baseball labor relations has been a very fragile ecosystem since forever, and ultimately what's happening is the invasive species of sabermetrics and the new universal understanding of how to value players has disturbed that ecosystem and this is the conflict where those contradictions will need to be resolved.
If this occurs, MLB will not recover. They're losing fans and aren't gaining anything with the next generation. Eventually, people learn to live without and will find other things to do with their summer until the NFL starts.

Millionaires arguing with billionaires with the average fan paying the price to support both, totally left out of the equation.

This is not smart by either side.
 
#878      

bdutts

Houston, Texas
The Braves are the only team owned by a publicly traded company and thus the only one for which there is that kind of transparency available. Passan didn't "pick" anything.

Ok, fine, he didn't "pick" anything, but he had nothing to show as a comparison and that's the issue I have. It's no shock the WS Champion made a bunch of money. I'd expect any WS winner to make a lot of money. What we need to see as a comparison is some of the last place teams. But we don't have that data so we will never know. If he can't get that info, then don't say that baseball franchises are "superb businesses". He CAN say that the Braves were a superb business in 2021. Again, no shock there.

Looks like Liberty Media bought the Braves in 2007. Surely the data would exist for the Braves back to then, I'd even give it to 2010. Wonder why that data was used by Passan?

100% agree with your last paragraph/sentence.
 
#879      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL
If this occurs, MLB will not recover. They're losing fans and aren't gaining anything with the next generation. Eventually, people learn to live without and will find other things to do with their summer until the NFL starts.

Millionaires arguing with billionaires with the average fan paying the price to support both, totally left out of the equation.

This is not smart by either side.
I think I probably complained about this earlier in the thread, but this 14 team playoff concept is a bigger threat to baseball's future than any of this.

(You also know my feelings on expanded playoffs generally. It's bad!)

Ok, fine, he didn't "pick" anything, but he had nothing to show as a comparison and that's the issue I have. It's no shock the WS Champion made a bunch of money. I'd expect any WS winner to make a lot of money. What we need to see as a comparison is some of the last place teams. But we don't have that data so we will never know. If he can't get that info, then don't say that baseball franchises are "superb businesses". He CAN say that the Braves were a superb business in 2021. Again, no shock there.

Looks like Liberty Media bought the Braves in 2007. Surely the data would exist for the Braves back to then, I'd even give it to 2010. Wonder why that data was used by Passan?
The Braves 2021 financials were released yesterday. They contained comparisons to the previous season. It's just a beat writer throwing out information they're getting, there's no ulterior motive there.

Look, stop beating around the bush, come out and say what you mean. The media is openly committed to shaping the narrative in the union's favor. You're right, that's true. With some notable exceptions who are getting a very hard time on Twitter at the moment, a great deal of the national baseball media is on the union's side. Not shocking when players and agents are all of their sources. One does not bite the hand that feeds.

Ferreting into the bias of the reporters is not a substitute for an actual understanding and analysis of the situation, however.

The MLB owners are intentionally sabotaging these negotiations and the coming season to break the union and secure for themselves a percentage of the sport's revenue that's wildly larger than owners in NFL/NBA/NHL get. That's all there is to it.
 
#880      
The notion that ANY MLB team isn’t raking in the cash is utterly preposterous. The Orioles, Pirates, etc. may not be making as much money as clubs in larger cities, but they are still turning a tidy profit for their owners.

The narrative that these owners are performing some sort of charitable act by running a baseball team that’s losing money is laughable. The whole thing reminds me of the scene from The Godfather where Moe Green claims his casino is losing money.
 
#881      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL
The notion that ANY MLB team isn’t raking in the cash is utterly preposterous.
And additional revenue is coming in the form of expanded playoffs, advertising on uniforms, and the increasing penetration of gambling (a sportsbook is being built at Wrigley, for instance).

This thing would be over tomorrow if the owners would tie the CBT threshold to total revenues and leave the penalties the same. Which is a GREAT deal for them, as I said above, they currently sit with the biggest pie slice among the big 4 sports.
 
#882      

bdutts

Houston, Texas
Look, stop beating around the bush, come out and say what you mean. The media is openly committed to shaping the narrative in the union's favor. You're right, that's true. With some notable exceptions who are getting a very hard time on Twitter at the moment, a great deal of the national baseball media is on the union's side. Not shocking when players and agents are all of their sources. One does not bite the hand that feeds.
I'm not trying to say anything more than I need more data before I agree that baseball is a "superb" business. It very well may be, but I need more than one data point to determine that. To me, it's like saying that the Covid vaccine is effective because only 20% of the people who get it end up in the hospital. While it sounds great, what is the % of people that end up in the hospital who don't get the vaccine? If it's 20%, then the vaccine isn't effective at all. EDIT: if a majority of the MLB teams are like the Braves in their balance sheets, then I'd agree 100% that MLB is a superb business.

Like was said by you, me and others, the books are closed so we will never know how "superb" a business baseball really is. Do I think teams lose money? I doubt it but I'm not sure how much they'd be making. I think there should be no floor, no cap, no luxury tax. If the Dodgers want to spend 500M on payroll while the A's only spend 80M, I am good with that. Let each team set their own budget. If it results in contraction of some teams in the league, that's fine by me.
 
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#883      

bdutts

Houston, Texas
The notion that ANY MLB team isn’t raking in the cash is utterly preposterous. The Orioles, Pirates, etc. may not be making as much money as clubs in larger cities, but they are still turning a tidy profit for their owners.

The narrative that these owners are performing some sort of charitable act by running a baseball team that’s losing money is laughable. The whole thing reminds me of the scene from The Godfather where Moe Green claims his casino is losing money.

How do you define raking in the cash or turning a tidy profit, Champaignchris?
 
#884      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL
I think there should be no floor, no cap, no luxury tax. If the Dodgers want to spend 500M on payroll while the A's only spend 80M, I am good with that. Let each team set their own budget. If it results in contraction of some teams in the league, that's fine by me.
Well, that's a proposal twenty thousand miles beyond anything the players would dare ask for. You need to understand that to understand any of this.

Just as an aside, all four major US sports are unambiguously in violation of all existing antitrust law and are allowed to operate as they do only because they operate via CBA. The players could disband the union and sue to enforce exactly the sort of open competition you propose. That's a nuclear option.

I think there are a lot of reasons they shouldn't do that, but sports labor peace depends upon the players feeling cut in on the deal of the anti-competitive cartel that all of these leagues represent.
 
#887      
Passan article from today on negotiations. Gives a pretty detailed account on the players' view of things.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id...d-crisis-boiling-mlb-lockout-deadline-arrives

I think this quote pretty well sums the player perspective here up:

"Player pay has decreased for four consecutive years, even as industry revenues grew and franchise values soared and the would-be stewards of the game pleaded to anyone who would listen that owning a baseball team isn't a particularly profitable venture. Players' service time has been manipulated to keep them from free agency and salary arbitration. The luxury tax, instituted to discourage runaway spending, has morphed into a de facto salary cap, and too many teams are nowhere near it anyway, instead gutting their rosters and slashing their payrolls because the game's rules incentivize losing. The commissioner has called the World Series trophy a "piece of metal," and the league has awarded the team that did the best job curtailing arbitration salaries a replica championship belt."

That last bit about the League giving out an award to the team that does the best job of lowering arbitration awards is particularly awful behavior on the part of the owners and is in the same realm as the free agency collusion of the late 80s, especially as this is directed towards the youngest players making the lowest salaries. It's the type of thing that would be part of an antitrust lawsuit if Baseball were subject to antitrust laws.
 
#888      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL
I think this quote pretty well sums the player perspective here up:

"Player pay has decreased for four consecutive years, even as industry revenues grew and franchise values soared....Players' service time has been manipulated to keep them from free agency and salary arbitration. The luxury tax, instituted to discourage runaway spending, has morphed into a de facto salary cap
The highlighted bits aren't really the player's perspective, they're just facts.

Plus the players are agreeing to expanded playoffs and on-uniform advertising, adding a reported quarter billion per year in revenue to the owners, and the response is proposals that would virtually guarantee five years of further backsliding in salaries.

It's the type of thing that would be part of an antitrust lawsuit if Baseball were subject to antitrust laws.
Because MLB's labor rights are collectively bargained, they are immune from suit by the MLBPA under antitrust law, leaving aside any question of the antitrust exemption. MLBPA could decertify and seek remedy in court, but that's getting down the rabbit hole a bit.
 
#889      
Here are all the sales of baseball teams in the last 10 years:

David Glass sold the Royals for $1 billion in 2019. The Royals are the prototypical small market team. As I understanding it, Glass mostly sold the team because he was old. (He died the next year.)

Frank McCourt bought the Dodgers in 2004 for $430 million, by all accounts hilariously mismanaged the team, and then sold them for $2.15 billion just 8 years later in 2012.

Jeffry Loria destroyed the Montreal Expos, was nonetheless allowed to buy the Marlins for $158 million in 2002, continued to act in a way that earned him the title of Worst Owner in Sports, and then sold the team for $1.3 billion in 2018.

Mets ownership got enmeshed in the Bernie Madoff scandal and was basically forced to sell the team. Even under pressure, with little leverage, they were able to sell the team for just under $2.5 billion last year.

Technically, the Padres sold for $800 million in 2012, but this was actually just a shuffling of the ownership group where a guy with 40-something percent of the ownership obtained majority ownership.

And that’s everybody. Two incompetents, a bunch of crooks, an old man cashing out, and a minority partner becoming a majority partner. I don’t see smart, savvy businessmen jumping ship. I don’t see franchises moving around trying to get a better location. These teams aren’t selling for billions of dollars because they’re unprofitable investments.
 
#894      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL
I believe it is just opening day at this point
Manfred said the first two series of the season, so roughly the first week.

Keep in mind that MLB does not have the ability to set the length of the season unilaterally, that is collectively bargained with the players, so they are doing something they neither are forced to do (as they imposed the lockout and could lift it at any time) nor have the right to do, technically.

And the whole "they imposed the lockout" thing feels like just sort of a talking point you throw out there, but their purported justification of evading a player strike is a total lie, the players have never threatened to strike. The owners problem is that their luxury tax expired with the CBA, so without a new CBA, the luxury tax would be gone. The players would be delighted to continue playing under those conditions, they would never strike.

Remember: This blown deadline is because the owners refused to meet with the players for 43 days.

Eh, from the moment the owners really gained an understanding of how big their labor problem was during the Covid season negotiations, their entire strategy has been to break the union by withholding game checks from the players. This entire last week was a charade, they never intended to come to a deal.
 
#899      
#900      
Someone talk me through the lager base logic.

Mainly, that it makes it easier for base stealers, especially when sliding.

One of the things instant replay has taught us is that it’s actually really hard to maintain contact with the base after running full speed and then coming to a complete stop.

Guys that used to be safe because “they beat the throw” are now being called out because they didn’t maintain contact with the base.

Making the base a bit bigger would give the runner just a little extra leeway.